Fdd's overnight brief

June 2, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

President Trump on Monday aimed to quash a growing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that threatened to derail his peace talks with Iran, declaring that both sides had agreed to stop fighting and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had called off attacks in Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal

At a United Nations emergency Security Council meeting on Monday, diplomats were nearly unanimous — with the exception of the United States — in calling for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and refrain from threatened escalatory attacks on the country.  – New York Times 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered attacks on the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs ​of Beirut on Monday, signalling the risk of further escalation in a war that has complicated mediation towards resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict. – Reuters

Israel’s ​defence ministry said on Monday France had banned Israeli ‌government officials from a major weapons show in Paris, and had imposed restrictions on companies from the country exhibiting there. – Reuters

Gaza mediators were set to renew disarmament talks with Hamas in Egypt on Thursday and were considering alternatives to US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for ending the Gaza war, two Arab diplomats involved in the process told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

Last weekend, South Africa asked the International Court of Justice for an 18-month extension to reply to the Israeli defense team’s latest legal brief in the genocide case it brought against Jerusalem in late 2023. – Jerusalem Post

The Mossad announced on Tuesday morning that its outgoing chief, David Barnea, in a retirement ceremony late Monday night, called for Israel and the agency to remain committed to toppling the Islamic regime, which still runs Iran, following the recent 2026 war. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The government must resist international pressure to preserve the ghost of a ceasefire and give the IDF the mandate to finish the job. Anything less would be a betrayal of the citizens still huddled in shelters, waiting for a government that values their lives more than its standing in Washington. The ceasefire is dead. Israel should stop pretending otherwise before more Israelis pay the price for this diplomatic fiction. – Jerusalem Post

Or Horvitz writes: With few allies left, declining support among the Shiite community, and growing pressure from the Lebanese state, the organization is increasingly isolated and vulnerable. It will be a Sisyphean task, long and complex, but for the first time, it is possible. There is a diplomatic horizon. Israel would do well to focus more on these efforts and less on triumphalist rhetoric about the capture of Beaufort, important as it may be. – Jerusalem Post

Zaki Shalom writes: For the first time, Israel appears to be approaching a reality in which its main enemy in Gaza can no longer meaningfully shape events, but only react to them. A similar, though slower and more cautious, process may now also be unfolding in Lebanon. Israel’s recent actions in Gaza – and perhaps increasingly in Lebanon as well – suggest that the Middle East may be entering a new phase, one in which Israel’s principal adversaries no longer dictate the regional agenda. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Escalating violence in the Middle East is threatening to derail stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States as negotiators struggle to extend a shaky ceasefire and end the war. – Washington Post

Iran on Monday blamed the slow pace of efforts to end the ​U.S.-Iran conflict on a lack of trust, contradictory positions from Washington ‌and continued Israeli attacks in the region. – Reuters

Iran is pushing for a limited interim agreement with the United States in a bid to ease mounting economic pressure and stabilise the situation ​at home, while avoiding major concessions on its nuclear programme, according to sources and analysts. – Reuters

Shipping executives meeting in Athens on Monday said that any peace deal worked out between the United States and Iran would need to offer clear rules allowing vessels to resume normal business ​via the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters

The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, warned on Monday that persistent Israeli military campaigns in both Gaza and Lebanon risk igniting a coordinated escalation from Tehran-backed networks throughout the Middle East. – Arutz Sheva

The Iranian judiciary has carried out the death sentences of two individuals detained during the wave of nationwide demonstrations that swept the country in January, according to an official announcement published Monday by the regime’s legal outlet, Mizan News. – Arutz Sheva

There are three nonmilitary and nonprofessional issues that have infected and skewed all of the coverage about the likely impending or eventual Iran nuclear deal, which will govern much of the Middle East’s conflicts postwar. – Jerusalem Post

Mike Evans writes: Now the IRGC is reportedly asking for an immediate $24 billion to be released upfront in exchange for a memorandum of understanding. These are funds that have been frozen. The money would not secure a fully developed peace agreement but rather a vague, one-page document that merely provides a framework for future negotiations. To release those funds, the United States would need to waive sanctions and secure cooperation from foreign governments. – Jerusalem Post

Catherine Perez-Shakdam writes: What the Islamic Republic of Iran exports now is not merely missiles or proxy militias. Its most successful export may well be fragmentation itself: the corrosion of shared civic identity, the normalization of ideological intimidation, and the steady replacement of democratic confidence with permanent agitation. This is the genius of the ideological-security state. It does not always seek conquest in the old territorial sense. It seeks exhaustion. – Jerusalem Post

Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar writes: The result is a zero-sum dynamic that makes true peace nearly impossible, at least for now. The regime believes that confrontation strengthens its hand. It is happy to withstand economic pain if it can control the strait. The United States, by contrast, has so far refused to leave the strait in Iranian hands. The world, then, might settle into a new normal where the United States maintains some kind of blockade of Iran, Iran maintains some kind of blockade of the strait, and both sides perpetually engage in skirmishes and perhaps return to outright conflict. – Foreign Affairs 

Seth Mandel writes: It’s not a trick question. Iran is confirming, yet again, that the Western narrative of this conflict is the correct one. Iran is an occupying power in Lebanon and elsewhere, and the deaths in Lebanon are indeed Iran’s responsibility. It is also confirming something else. Any belief that Iran can be merely contained while leaving its threats intact is shortsighted in the extreme. The entire region was blown open by October 7, which was the work of one of Iran’s militias, Hamas. The fact that Iran is asking to preserve the ability to have its proxies repeat the conflagration is proof that the choice before Trump is war now, in which the U.S. has a distinct advantage, or war later, when the enemy has rearmed. The president should choose wisely. – Commentary Magazine

Russia and Ukraine

Russian drones ​and missiles pounded the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other cities early on Tuesday, killing at least 11 people and wounding more than 100, authorities said, following days of warnings about ‌Moscow’s plans for a major assault. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov, said on Monday he believed ​agreeing a deal to end the war against ‌Russia by winter was a “realistic” outcome. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the prime minister and the director ​of the Federal Security Service (FSB) to ensure ‌access to key medical, information and payment services during periods when mobile internet service is limited. – Reuters

Senior government officials have warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that spending on the war in Ukraine is on an unaffordable path, the most serious sign of internal division in Moscow since the full-scale invasion began. – Bloomberg

Michael Kimmage writes: With each Ukrainian strike on Russian territory, the war is eroding the well-being of Russian citizens. The path to competent Russian leadership now appears to require an unraveling of Putinism, and the less legitimate and effective the current system becomes, the fiercer the post-Putin battle for position will be. When it comes, his exit could well shatter the stability he sought to impose when he became Russia’s president more than 20 years ago. – New York Times

Samu Paukkunen and James Black write: Geopolitical tensions are likely here to stay. The Euro-Atlantic community faces a world destabilized by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, escalating conflict in the Middle East, and possible flashpoints with China, including over Taiwan. Tensions are already translating into hostile acts against the critical undersea infrastructure underpinning modern societies and the global economy. A newly invigorated role for NATO is welcome, if not a “silver bullet.” National governments and industry should now work together with NATO and invest in cost-effective means of improving resilience if this new coordinating function is to translate into more secure subsea infrastructure. – War on the Rocks

Hezbollah

Early this year, Lebanon’s leaders seemed to be edging toward one of their most elusive goals: disarming Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militia that has long operated as a state within a state.  – New York Times

Lebanon announced ​a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday in what would amount to a limited de-escalation of a conflict that has ‌killed thousands of people and inflamed the broader U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. – Reuters

A medical officer was killed and seven others were wounded in a Hezbollah explosive drone attack in southern Lebanon on Monday, as the Iran-backed terror group kept up its relentless rocket and drone attacks, and the IDF pushed ahead with its renewed offensive. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Iran’s regime sees this as one war, and it has been testing Mr. Trump on all fronts. If it fires on U.S. forces in the Strait or Gulf, will he still try to salvage the cease-fire? How about stepped-up attacks on Israel? How about claiming to quit negotiations? In each case, Mr. Trump has chosen to avoid escalation and keep talking. If he won’t send a different message, it will be difficult to get the regime to comply with a deal, no matter what it promises now. – Wall Street Journal

Amichai Stein writes: In 2025, the UN Security Council voted to terminate UNIFIL’s mandate, with the mission scheduled to end completely by the close of 2026. The plan called for UNIFIL personnel to withdraw from Lebanon during 2027. The resolution passed unanimously, with all 15 Security Council members voting in favor. Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon told The Jerusalem Post: “After years of complete failure to implement Resolution 1701, the UN is now proposing to replace one failed force with another under a different name. A clear decision was made to end UNIFIL’s mandate at the end of the year, and there is no justification for attempting to circumvent it. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

Russia sent a cargo ship to resupply its air base in Syria, a signal the Kremlin intends to maintain the strategically important military foothold under the country’s new rulers, according to U.S. officials and satellite images reviewed by The Wall Street Journal – Wall Street Journal

Syria recorded nearly 12,000 aircraft transits in May as regional airlines rerouted ​around airspace disrupted by conflict in the Middle East and into skies that most carriers had avoided for more than a decade. – Reuters

An ex-Syrian general and a former senior Syrian police officer pleaded not guilty on Monday to torturing opponents of ousted president Bashar al-Assad as their trial started in Vienna. – Times of Israel

Gulf States

At the start of the U.S.-Iran war, officials in Oman raced to establish a back channel with Tehran that, according to Arab officials, helped Gulf states reopen flight corridors—a diplomatic coup made possible by Muscat’s staunch impartiality in the conflict. – Wall Street Journal

Despite the current ceasefire between the United States and Iran, it remains too risky to move the thousands of sailors stuck in ​the Gulf, the head of the U.N.’s shipping agency said. – Reuters

Ilan Zalayat writes: Over the past few years, trust between the regime and Shi’ites, shattered in the Arab Spring, has gradually improved: Parliament was restored in 2018, broad pardons were granted to political prisoners, and the government has promoted Bahraini nationalism that is inclusive of Shiites. Yet the war has reversed this relative openness. Alongside mass arrests, authorities began revoking citizenship from those accused of supporting Iran – an old tool for repressing the Shi’ite majority. – Jerusalem Post

David B. Roberts writes: Yet the more important point is this: The form of defense should be calibrated to the specific threat it faces — not to externally derived logics like alliance signaling, supplier preference, and prestige that so often shape Gulf force planning. The corrective is sustainability and investing not in the most impressive system but in the system that can be sustained, replenished, and operated at the scale the threat demands. The conceptual leap required is small but, within the political economy of Gulf states’ collective defense, genuinely difficult: to recognize that a fence can be an air defense system, and that the measure of a defense architecture is not its sophistication but its endurance. – War on the Rocks

Middle East & North Africa

Two explosions struck a ​cargo vessel in the Gulf about ‌40 nautical miles southeast of Iraq’s Umm Qasr, one of which was caused by a drone ​attack, Iraqi officials said on Monday. – Reuters

An Iraqi national accused of plotting at least 18 attacks in Europe in retaliation for the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran pleaded not guilty on Monday before calling himself a “prisoner of war” and telling a judge that children and women were being killed “by your rockets.” – Associated Press

Neville Teller writes: Extending the Pakistan-Saudi defense and security pact to embrace other Sunni states, such as Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, seems far from imminent. Even Turkey, apparently on the verge of full accession back in January, is still hovering in the wings, talking about the possibility. In short, if the enhanced alliance emerges, it would indeed be a significant new factor in the region’s political alignment. Even in prospect, it is enough to shape calculations in Tehran, New Delhi, Jerusalem, and Washington. But a new Sunni axis simply does not yet exist. Jerusalem Post

China

Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, has said China’s military doesn’t rely on chips from his California-based company. But an analysis of six years of Chinese records shows that China’s military has been openly seeking Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips since 2019. – New York Times

China firmly opposes the “suppression” of a reporter for the official Xinhua news ​agency who is based in the United States, ‌the foreign ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

China and the United States recently held “candid ​and constructive” exchanges on ‌air and maritime safety and discussed measures to improve military ​maritime security, the Chinese ​navy said in a statement ⁠published on Monday. – Reuters

China’s SAIC Motor Corp plans to set up a car factory in Spain’s northwestern region of Galicia that ​would be its first production facility in the European ‌Union, the regional government said on Monday. – Reuters

Government subsidies to industry have reached their highest level since the global financial crisis, driven largely ​by China, a report from the Organisation for ‌Economic Cooperation and Development said on Monday. – Reuters

Mark A. Smith writes: China is not weaponizing rare earths to punish the West. It is doing something colder and more durable: deciding that selling raw materials is bad business. The licensing rules, the extraterritorial reach and the on-again, off-again suspensions — these are not random skirmishes. They are the dial Beijing is slowly turning down on raw exports while it turns the other dial up on finished goods made from the same atoms. – Fox News

South Asia

India is ‌likely to discuss Washington’s Section 301 investigation and potential tariff measures with U.S. trade officials, as the two nations seek to finalise a deal, an Indian government source said on Monday. – Reuters

India said it will continue engaging with Myanmar after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks Monday with the leader of the country’s military-backed government, despite Western sanctions imposed after the military seized power in 2021. – Associated Press

Azeem Ibrahim writes: India remains the more logical long-term partner for Washington in balancing China, on whom Pakistan is still dependent. Pakistan will, however, remain more flexible than its rival in New Delhi, who could not validate U.S. mediation over Kashmir without creating a sovereignty problem, nor easily stop buying Russian oil […] Peace negotiations require efficiency, stakes, and trust. Islamabad learned the language of Trump’s diplomacy and spoke it more fluently than its rivals, and now the diplomatic crown in the region is its to lose. – Foreign Policy

Michael Haack writes: But it’s clear that the race to do so is already in full swing, and people are already making money off it. Remarkably, the shift in U.S. priorities does not seem to have stopped Myanmar’s opposition from looking toward Washington for help. In Stevenson’s words: “Democratic opposition groups have not given up on the United States. While they may see us as unreliable and may be disappointed in the extent of U.S. action, they still see the United States as their best chance.” – Foreign Policy

Asia

The Taiwan military’s top weapons development institute showed off on Tuesday three robot patrol dogs that could one day be used on ​Taiwan’s islands in the disputed South China Sea. – Reuters

Cambodia said on Tuesday ​it has informed the United Nations and ‌Thailand that it has launched a compulsory conciliation process under international law aimed at resolving a long-running maritime ​boundary dispute with Bangkok. – Reuters

A Philippine senator who is the son of a former president was detained ​on Monday after surrendering to police in line with ‌a court order on suspicion of taking kickbacks as part of a scandal that sparked huge protests last year. – Reuters

Australia’s net trade proved to be a major drag on the ‌economy in the first quarter as imports of data centre equipment and fuel boomed, while government spending added nothing to economic growth. – Reuters

More than a dozen rescue and charity groups used excavation machinery to recover bodies Monday after a massive blast from stored mining explosives in northeastern Myanmar. – Associated Press

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for the safe passage of all vessels regardless of nation in her third phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. – Bloomberg

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said New Zealand will maintain its nuclear-free stance, distancing himself from comments by the nation’s defense minister that a conversation about the decades-old policy would be helpful. – Bloomberg

India and Australia agreed to deepen cooperation on maritime surveillance and undersea monitoring, days after the Quad nations unveiled a new initiative aimed at boosting security across the Indo-Pacific. – Bloomberg

Walter Russell Mead writes: Mr. Hegseth’s speech was silent on the subject on most of his audience’s minds: the U.S.-Iran war, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz to the sea traffic on which most of the region’s economies depend. Fuel and fertilizer price hikes are creating political and economic stress across the region. Remittances from Gulf-based workers in countries ranging from the Philippines to Pakistan provide vital support to families and economies. Asian views of the Trump administration will be shaped far more by the outcome of the conflict in the Gulf than by anything Mr. Hegseth or any other American official says in forums. – Wall Street Journal

Nicholas Eberstadt and Lawrence Peck write: Mr. Lee and his party have floated proposals for making the constitution more “democratic” through further “reforms.” These changes could cement Minju’s hold on power, and effectively transform South Korea into a one-party state. America has plenty of friends and allies in South Korea. But they aren’t in Minju. Until Washington wakes up, the threats to South Korea’s domestic freedom, and to the U.S.-South Korea alliance, will likely grow. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

The rioting that often accompanies French soccer teams’ successes on the soccer field is itself becoming a political football as President Emmanuel Macron and his rivals jockey for position following the mayhem sparked by Paris Saint-Germain’s victory in the Champions League final. – Wall Street Journal

The European Union is adopting strict new rules on asylum claims by tightening border controls, speeding deportations, increasing detention times and moving to deploy some of the same clenched-fist tactics as the Trump administration in deterring arrivals. – Washington Post

After a bruising post-election period in which negotiations dragged on for longer than ever before, Ms. Frederiksen, Denmark’s veteran prime minister, formed a new government on Monday night. That put her on a path to be Denmark’s longest-serving leader since World War II and a major player in Europe. – New York Times

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said on Monday his government ‌would launch legal proceedings to dismiss President Tamas Sulyok, an appointee of the previous nationalist administration, if he sticks by his refusal to resign. – Reuters

Britain has blocked Cenk Uygur, a left-wing Turkish-American media personality, and his nephew, Hasan Piker, a U.S. left-wing commentator and influencer, from ​entering the country to speak at events, both said on Monday. – Reuters

When Bassi Konate became mayor of Sarcelles this spring, the independent candidate backed by the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party ended three decades of municipal rule ​by the Socialists, the traditional powerhouse of the French left. – Reuters

France’s navy has intercepted a sanctioned tanker linked to the ​Russian oil trade in the Atlantic Ocean and ordered the vessel to head for the French mainland, in a move Russia said ‌was illegal and bordered on “international piracy”. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz plans to host European leaders later this month with a goal of crafting a plan to smooth relations with President Donald Trump at a NATO summit in July, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

French President Emmanuel Macron announced €93 billion ($108 billion) in foreign investments at the “Choose France” summit, with the bulk coming from an investment pledge from SoftBank Group Corp. – Bloomberg

Europe is sleepwalking into economic ruin because of complacency and poor productivity, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said as he turns his country into a key gateway for China. – Bloomberg

The Polish Ministry of National Defence has awarded contracts worth around 60 billion zloty ($16.5 billion) to buy infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled howitzers, military vehicles, and self-propelled wheeled mortars, among other weapons, to a group of local defense companies. – Defense News

Editorial: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is eager to demonstrate that his Labour Party has reformed and does not tolerate antisemitism in its ranks. Labour suspended former leader Jeremy Corbyn from the party after he refused to apologize for the rise of explicit antisemitism on his watch. But it’s not just the left being silenced. Last month, 11 people were blocked from entering the country to speak at a rally hosted by far-right activist Tommy Robinson. Earlier this year, Dutch anti-immigration activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek had her visa application rejected for the same reasons. – Washington Post

Africa

An outbreak of a rare strain of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo is already the third largest in history, just weeks after it likely began. – Wall Street Journal

Voting took place in Ethiopia on Monday in parliamentary and regional elections expected to hand Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling ​Prosperity Party an easy victory, despite significant unrest in much of the country. – Reuters

Nigerian politician Peter Obi said he would run for president again in January after winning his party’s nomination, setting up another contest between incumbent Bola Tinubu ​and a divided opposition. – Reuters

Senegal’s recently ousted prime minister, Ousmane Sonko, announced on ‌Monday that the political party he leads will not participate in the country’s new government, raising the prospect of political gridlock amid a daunting debt crisis. – Reuters

The African Development Bank will inject $125 million into African ‌Trade and Investment Development Insurance (ATIDI) to become its biggest shareholder and ramp up the use of guarantees to attract private capital, the bank’s president told Reuters. – Reuters

China will send ​a team ‌of medical specialists to the ​Democratic Republic ​of Congo to ⁠assist with ​the region’s Ebola outbreak, foreign ​ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on ​Monday. – Reuters

Britain will not have to pay Rwanda tens of millions of pounds over ​the cancelled deal to deport asylum seekers to the East African nation, the ‌Permanent Court of Arbitration said on Monday. – Reuters

Some 200 companies attended a European Union investment roadshow in South Africa ‌on Monday, vying for a slice of €12 billion ($13.98 billion) in investments the bloc has pledged amid global rivalry over critical minerals. – Reuters

The State Department plans to drastically slash the number of U.S. embassies and consulates in Africa that can process visas for foreigners seeking to come to the United States. – Associated Press

Hundreds of women marched in Kenya ’s capital Monday to call for the government to urgently investigate what advocacy groups say is an increase in killings and other violence against women. – Associated Press

South African lawmakers elected Makashule Gana to head a multiparty panel that will hold an impeachment inquiry into President Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of a robbery at his game farm. – Bloomberg

Morocco overtook South Africa as the continent’s most industrialized economy last year as it upgrades its offering, diversifies exports and implements growth policies, a report showed. – Bloomberg

The Americas

On the campaign stage, Abelardo de la Espriella prowls inside a bulletproof cubicle against a backdrop of AI-generated images of tigers, the animal that has become the symbol of his audacious bid for Colombia’s presidency. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration on Monday proposed a 25 percent tariff on a broad range of Brazilian imports, concluding after a trade investigation that Brazil had engaged in unfair practices that imposed burdens on American businesses. – New York Times

China and Brazil should “jointly ​fend off external ‌challenges”, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told ​his Brazilian ​counterpart, Mauro Vieira, during ⁠a meeting in ​Beijing on Monday, ​according to a statement released by the Chinese ​ministry. – Reuters

Chile’s far-right President Jose Antonio Kast, who took office in March, promised a legislative agenda ​that prioritizes fighting crime, cutting spending and boosting economic growth ‌in his first national address on Monday at the start of Congress’ session. – Reuters

Editorial: The trouble for Mr. Cepeda is that he’s also running on Mr. Petro’s record: mediocre economic gains, a fiscal mess, a shrinking oil and gas industry and anti-Americanism. Private investment has lagged while large parts of the country have fallen under the control of illegal armed groups. Mr. Cepeda’s “total peace” agenda amounts to appeasement, and he promises to complete Mr. Petro’s dream of rewriting the constitution a la Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. Mr. de la Espriella is running on a tough-on-crime platform and a promise to shrink the government. – Wall Street Journal

North America

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday that far-right sectors in the United States are coordinating with ​domestic groups to attack her government, escalating her rhetoric ‌against Mexico’s largest trading partner. – Reuters

Public schools and doctors’ offices in Honduras ​remained closed on Monday ‌as teachers and medics launched a nationwide strike, demanding long-promised pay ​adjustments and better working conditions. – Reuters

Canada is failing Jewish Canadians and the community is being brutally targeted by hate, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday. – Associated Press

The office of Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc stressed the importance of “maintaining the highly integrated North American energy market” ahead of talks in Washington with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. – Bloomberg

United States

The U.S. has made securing supplies of rare earths and processing facilities a priority in a push reduce its reliance on China. The French government could offer financial support and debt guarantees, the company said. – Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to face a litany of questions Tuesday about the Trump administration’s fragile or stalling diplomatic efforts around the world when he appears for back-to-back hearings on Capitol Hill for the first time since the Iran war began. – Associated Press

The world is getting more uptight about lending money to President Donald Trump’s government — causing interest rates to climb in ways that are worsening affordability pressures, hampering economic growth and creating a new risk for Republicans in November’s midterm elections. – Associated Press

Elaine McCusker writes: What’s at stake is quite simply the recovery of America’s military competitiveness, long-term prosperity and role as a global power. Congress could demonstrate the strength of our system of government by delivering this anniversary present to the American’s taxpayer before standing for midterm elections this fall. – The Hill

Dan Doyle writes: Trump and his secretaries are running out of time. Accomplishing true U.S. energy independence has to be done now — meaning more leasing on federal lands and water, a higher rig count, and completing proposed pipelines and refinery expansions. Politicizing low oil prices, as Trump is prone to do, won’t get us there. Reasonable oil prices are neither inflationary nor recessionary. The damage comes when prices go too low, as they were earlier this year, or too high, as they are now. As both the owner of a fracking company and an oil and gas production company, I’ll take the middle every time. Reg-off is good, but it’s negligible compared to necessary prices.- Fox News

Cybersecurity

A Chinese company has been trying to develop artificial intelligence-powered technology that would enable authoritarian governments to not just monitor dissidents but also potentially predict who could become one in the future.- New York Times

The cost of using AI will rise in less predictable ways as companies deploy the technology for complex tasks, the head ​of Australia’s biggest bank said on Tuesday, calling the expense a ‌key emerging management challenge. – Reuters

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday the company has enough supply to ​accommodate robust growth in central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) as it ‌rides an AI boom. – Reuters

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang hosted top South Korean tech executives ‌including the boss of chipmaker SK Hynix at a boisterous dinner on Monday, as he looks to deepen ties with key partners ahead of what he called an “incredibly busy” stretch for the AI boom. – Reuters

Nvidia plans to work with humanoid robot makers in the U.S., Europe and South Korea in addition to China’s Unitree to build robots ​for researchers, according to the AI chip company’s executives. – Reuters

Chinese tech ​company ByteDance and ‌U.S. data centre firm ​Oracle are ​among the customers of ⁠Arm’s AI data centre ​chips, the head of the chip ​designing ​firm said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Malaysia has begun barring those aged under 16 from registering accounts on social ​media platforms, its communications regulator said on Monday, ‌as it boosts efforts to protect minors from exposure to harmful content online. – Reuters

Parmy Olson writes: More than a decade ago, Nvidia’s Tegra chips powered Microsoft’s first Windows-on-Arm device, a tablet with a detachable keyboard called the Surface RT. But the device couldn’t run a range of third-party apps like Google Chrome, Photoshop and many PC games because most of those programs were designed to run on Intel-style chips, and not Arm. These days, chips based on Arm’s designs have a built-in translator that can run many more programs, which is a promising step forward even if software compatibility for the RTX Spark is still unclear. The bigger question now is whether Nvidia can deliver all that power without battery life paying the price. – Bloomberg

Nir Kaissar writes: For better or worse, millions of people will soon have a stake in SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic. All three companies will instantly be among the most valuable US public companies, which means they will be prominent holdings in index funds popular with investors. That’s no reason to dump index funds, but there are plenty of reasons to pass on what will certainly be the US’s three most hyped IPOs ever. – Bloomberg

Elisabeth Braw writes: In March, the European Union released an action plan that will provide instructions for how crews and air traffic controllers should operate during GPS disturbances. Norway has set up three monitoring stations for disturbances and plans to add another two. And DNK, a global maritime insurer based in Oslo, has launched a pioneering initiative that offers its members lower-orbit satellite signals that are much harder to disrupt than regular ones […] But the global public can help, too, by calling out the countries responsible for this utterly irresponsible spoofing and jamming. – Foreign Policy

Defense

A U.S. appeals court on Monday ​said President Donald Trump’s administration could for now bar transgender people from enlisting in the military, but blocked the expulsion ‌of current service members while a lawsuit plays out. – Reuters

The United States appears set to embark upon a significant military buildup. President Donald Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget increases funding for shipbuilding, aircraft production, missile production, Golden Dome, and many other critical programs. – Breaking Defense

Northrop Grumman today announced a partnership with commercial firm Apex Space to demonstrate space-based interceptors (SBIs) for the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile defense initiative in 2027. – Breaking Defense

William S. Becker writes: Trump can offer the world an artful deal: The U.S. will begin a stepwise reduction of its nuclear arsenal toward the goal of eliminating it completely, if other nuclear nations do the same. In addition, parties to the non-proliferation treaty would agree to improve compliance monitoring and create more severe penalties for cheating. Trump could propose that the nuclear club convene the world’s best nuclear, defense and diplomatic experts to establish the timing of and milestones for complete disarmament. – The Hill 

Ray Wojcik and Sebastian Meitz write: The United States should follow its own strategic logic. It should move east and stay east. It should take advantage of generational developments in Poland, making Poland the permanent anchor of American deterrence on NATO’s front line. Poland has delivered what Washington has long demanded from Europe. It is time for America to make that reality permanent. That’s America and Poland First. If followed through on, this will become a cornerstone of America’s strategy of peace through strength. – National Interest