Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
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Trump goes after Netanyahu as he pursues deal with Iran, putting their friendship to the test WINEP’s Michael Singh: What success in Iran means for Trump — and Netanyahu Iran is returning to nuclear talks no longer afraid of America The Trump-Iran deal allows Tehran to immediately sell oil Trump insists U.S. will not invest money in Iran as part of peace deal Read the 14-point draft memorandum between the US and Iran NYT’s Bret Stephens: Iran found Trump's bone spur Zelenskiy says G7 agreed Russia is not winning war, discussed more sanctions Hudson Institute’s Thomas J. Duesterberg and Peter Rough: The Russian economy looks more vulnerable each day Hezbollah believes Iran will not sign final nuclear deal if Israel stays in Lebanon U.S. allies use G-7 to focus Trump’s attention back to Ukraine Trump invokes cold war-era law to boost munitions productionIn The News
Israel
An Israeli strike killed at least two Palestinians in the central Gaza Strip, health officials said, as residents of an area in the north of the enclave fled their homes after Israeli forces expanded their control in the territory. – Reuters
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Tuesday called on the Bank of Israel to slash short-term interest rates after inflation data showed prices remain contained. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Donald Trump last year that he was the “greatest friend Israel ever had in the White House.” Now, as Trump tries to finalize a deal to end the war with Iran, he’s unloading on Netanyahu with rhetoric that no other American leader has dared to use publicly. – Associated Press
Israelis from across the political spectrum reacted angrily Monday to the news of an initial deal between the U.S. and Iran, calling it a disaster for Israel and directing their fury at one man: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Associated Press
Israel and Lebanon are nearing a US-mediated lasting ceasefire agreement, a report said Tuesday, as Israel and American officials insisted that the US-Iran deal signed Sunday does not mandate an IDF withdrawal from the areas of southern Lebanon it currently controls. – Times of Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday claimed his associates have likened the prosecution to the former East Germany’s “Stasi,” and accused them of conducting a political trial like that in a “police state,” during an outburst in court, as his cross-examination in his criminal trial ended after over a year of hearings, amid repeated delays. – Times of Israel
All legislation was removed from the Knesset plenum agenda for the second day in a row on Tuesday, as ultra-Orthodox lawmakers continued their boycott of coalition bills to protest the lack of advancement of the so-called Daycare Law. – Times of Israel
The United States is in talks with the Palestinian Authority about boosting what has been a strained bilateral relationship, as Washington seeks Ramallah’s cooperation to advance its landmark policy initiatives in the region, three government officials familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel
Hamas operatives planned to carry out a terrorist attack in Europe on the second anniversary of October 7, German Federal Prosecutor General Jens Rommel revealed at his office’s annual press conference in Karlsruhe. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Singh writes: Second, U.S. officials should avoid scapegoating Israel. Many not just on the left but on the right have suggested — some with good intentions, others far less so — that the U.S. went to war with Iran in February for Israel’s sake or because Israel forced our hand. Trump himself has asserted that this is false; his first threats to attack Iran in January were sparked by his outrage at the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on its own people. Pointing the finger at Israel may be politically expedient but risks further undermining support for a U.S.-Israel relationship already under strain from divergences over Gaza and other issues. But weakening our most capable ally in the Middle East may ironically mean fewer opportunities to shift burdens and thus more work, not less, for the U.S. in the region. – Washington Post
Yossi Yehoshua writes: This is not gossip. It is worth recalling the famous 2023 war warning by Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, which we wrote about here. Intelligence officials noted at the time that Israel’s enemies had identified weakness in the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem and might exploit the opportunity for a surprise move. Then, the warning was not about Hamas, but about Iran and Hezbollah. The idea, however, is clear. A military campaign can be dazzling, precise and courageous, and still end in strategic frustration. That is the painful lesson now facing Israel. The question is not whether the pilots flew brilliantly, whether the intelligence was impressive or whether the targets were hit. They did, it was, and they were. The question is whether anyone at the top connected those achievements to a coherent political endgame. – Ynet
Iran
Iran is entering negotiations with the Trump administration with an eye on a big prize: tens of billions of dollars locked abroad that could help revive its crisis-hit economy. – Wall Street Journal
After more than three months of bombing and blockades, the U.S. and Iran are back to square one, preparing for what promises to be difficult negotiations over limits to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war, offering Tehran an early financial incentive to wind down the conflict, people familiar with the agreement said. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that the United States would not immediately hand over money to Iran as part of the countries’ deal, the specifics of which remain clouded, to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. – Washington Post
Drivers hopeful that the U.S.-Iran framework deal will translate to lower gasoline prices will probably have to wait weeks, or longer, to see meaningful improvement. – New York Times
European nations are poised to send ships into the Strait of Hormuz to protect shipping — but not until they are convinced that the new cease-fire between the United States and Iran is working. – New York Times
The United States military has overseen scores of secretive ship-to-ship oil transfers to keep Gulf energy exports flowing, using aerial and water drones as well as helicopters in an operation to guide convoys to awaiting tankers. – Reuters
Rising inflation and a 30% jump in oil prices are dampening global growth, but leaders of the world’s top economies are unlikely to blame U.S. President Donald Trump for the war-driven slowdown when they meet in France to discuss the economy on Wednesday. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump maintained on Tuesday that an interim accord with Iran makes clear that Tehran would never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and he also suggested Syria could be better positioned to disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah. – Reuters
Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf will be present for the signing of an interim agreement to end the war with the U.S., an Iranian deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday, according to Tasnim news agency. – Reuters
Iran executed two individuals described as “armed leaders of early 2026 unrest” in the county of Shahrud, the judiciary’s news outlet Mizan said on Tuesday, identifying the defendants as Javad Zamani and Abolfazl Saedi. – Reuters
The interim deal between the U.S. and Iran is supposed to usher in a two-month period that would address the most divisive issue between the longtime adversaries — Tehran’s nuclear program. – Associated Press
Iran’s top diplomat said Tuesday that the tentative deal to end the war with the United States would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon — a condition Israel has already rejected and that could sink the agreement, leading to the resumption of all-out war. – Associated Press
The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war for good and putting strict new limits on Iran’s nuclear program. – Bloomberg
The son of the ousted shah of Iran spoke out Tuesday against any deal with Iran that leaves the Islamic Republic in place, as Washington prepared to formally sign an agreement with Tehran which the US has said is a done deal. – Agence France-Presse
A US official told NBC News on Tuesday that Iran has fired multiple drones toward commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding Sunday. – Arutz Sheva
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has granted “tacit approval” to the memorandum of understanding with the US, American officials told CNN. – Arutz Sheva
Bret Stephens writes: This cease-fire neither ends nor eases that threat; it hardens and magnifies it. It removes the one point of U.S. leverage over Iran — the naval blockade of its ports — before there’s any negotiation over its nuclear program, which the Iranians will almost surely drag out until Trump is out of office. It reminds the world of the adage that while it can be dangerous to be America’s enemy, it is fatal to be its friend. And it gives Iran’s leaders something even more vital: The confidence that, whatever Trump may threaten, they can withstand the most any American president or Israeli prime minister can throw at them. – New York Times
Hal Brands writes: The war exacerbated the chronic overstretch of the US military, by depleting readiness and munitions. It deepened a transatlantic crisis by causing sharp recriminations within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Trump’s bewildering behavior — threatening war crimes, then touting peace deals — created a widespread perception that the US was blundering through a grave geopolitical crisis. The messy aftermath may continue to consume US attention and resources for years to come. In this sense, Trump’s war is yet another reminder of how America constantly wants to be done with draining Middle Eastern conflicts — only to find itself continually ensnared in that vexing, vital region. – Bloomberg
Farzan Faramarzi writes: While Tehran has claimed victory, tensions are also rising inside Iran. Multiple reports and videos posted on X appear to show Iranian hard-liners and Basij militia members clashing with security forces. Some protesters are reportedly chanting “Death to Ghalibaf” and “Death to Araghchi.” Ghalibaf is the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, and Araghchi is Iran’s foreign minister; both were part of the regime’s negotiation team. Reviewing the Islamic Republic’s behavior over the past four decades shows a consistent pattern: prioritizing survival at any cost, suppressing dissent at home and abroad, and generating tension in its foreign policy. At times, the regime has engaged in negotiation and diplomacy — such as the nuclear deal and this recent agreement — while simultaneously supporting proxy groups across the region, threatening the U.S. – Washington Examiner
Dan Perry writes: For all these reasons, this war became one of the great strategic blunders of the modern era. It lacked any plan for Iran’s predictable blocking of Hormuz. Not only was the need to absorb months of pain not convincingly communicated to America’s allies, but Trump had been actively offending them with idiocies like his threat to invade Greenland. Iran thus transformed a military defeat into a grand strategic win by shifting the conflict into an economic confrontation. Iran had the advantage in this new struggle because, unlike the West, Iran’s leaders don’t care about their own people’s suffering. America’s interests have been badly battered as a result. Such are the wages of hubris and foolishness. – The Hill
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and the Good ISIS Team write: We have been monitoring the sites believed to house enriched uranium – the Esfahan tunnel site, the underground Fordow enrichment plant, and the underground Natanz enrichment plant and associated tunnels. We reported on the US and Israeli attacks on the facilities and their entrances, specifically the Esfahan and Fordow tunnel entrances in June 2025, and Natanz enrichment plant entrances in March/April 2026, all of which were seen as logical denial of access attacks. Which additional tunnels Iran would have collapsed, and why the US would be concerned about this, is not included in the CNN report. We have also been reporting on measures that we assessed would facilitate or complicate retrieval of assets post June 2025, such as Iranian efforts during its rebuilding of entrances, activity near the entrances or weapon impact points, efforts to seal off entrances, and additions of earthen berms and chicanes along the roads. – Institute for Science and International Security
Holly Dagres writes: The conflict has left Iranians worse off on every front, and U.S. policy has compounded their sense of abandonment. We don’t yet know whether the memorandum of understanding will hold and evolve into a lasting agreement. What is clear, however, is that the Trump administration has heinously damaged U.S. credibility with what had been one of the world’s most pro-American populations. In the forthcoming 60 days of negotiations, the Trump administration could still put human rights on the table alongside other security priorities — such as by pushing for a moratorium on executions and the release of political prisoners in Iran. At home, it could restore funding for civil society organizations and ensure that Iranians can stay in the U.S. The Islamic Republic hasn’t won the war against freedom-seeking Iranians, but so far the regime seems to have won this latest battle for its survival. – MS Now
Brian Katulis and Athena Masthoff write: Many of these projects stretch well into the 2030s and will not offer immediate relief from pressing problems, including the economic pain created by the 2026 Iran war. But laying out a longer-term view — one informed by the conflict’s lessons about the vulnerability of key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz — would help build a more stable region with greater incentives to strengthen connectivity. The war forced regional states to make their energy, transit, and trade systems more flexible and efficient out of necessity, and they should keep building on those gains even if a final US-Iran agreement is reached. Going forward, the US should leverage this momentum, facilitating similar agreements and investments between regional partners in other sectors to make the region more diversified, resilient, and interconnected. That would serve both US and regional security and economic interests over the long run. – Middle East Institute
Will Todman writes: More broadly, the war threatens China’s future economic interests. China has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the relative predictability of the global economic system, even as it has sought to revise parts of that order. The war opened a dangerous Pandora’s box that threatens those interests. The weaponization of strategic choke points, attacks on critical civilian infrastructure, and normalization of economic coercion all create precedents that could ultimately harm China as much as, if not more than, its rivals. The lesson of the war with Iran is that even the most powerful states are unable to convert military advantage into political control in the emerging geopolitical environment in the Middle East. The Iran war did not reorder the Middle East around a new balance of power. Instead, it exposed a region in which every actor can impose costs, but none can impose order. – Foreign Policy
Russia and Ukraine
A Russian Navy vessel traveling through the English Channel fired shots Tuesday near a yacht registered in the United Kingdom, causing no damage but raising concerns amid ongoing tension between Britain and Russia over marine transit in the region, according to British military officials. – New York Times
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday the Group of Seven leaders agreed at a summit in France that Russia was not winning its war in Ukraine, and they discussed additional sanctions to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. – Reuters
A Russian artist critical of President Vladimir Putin was shot and killed in the eastern Polish town of Biala Podlaska, a Polish prosecutor said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Repairs to a nearly 1,000-year-old monastery in Kyiv that was damaged by what Ukraine said was a deliberate Russian strike could take around two years, an official said on Tuesday. – Reuters
President Vladimir Putin will host leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, with energy security likely to top the agenda of their first summit since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Bloomberg
Ukraine attacked a major oil refinery near Moscow overnight into Tuesday, sparking a major fire and sending dark smoke trailing into the sky above the Russian capital in the latest example of Ukraine striking vital oil infrastructure far across the border. – Newsweek
Several European companies are promoting their laser solutions for unmanned aerial vehicles at this year’s Eurosatory exhibition in Paris, seeking to a fill critical technology gap for Ukraine’s defense. – Defense News
Thomas J. Duesterberg and Peter Rough write: The moment is ripe for a pressure campaign that pushes the Russian economy toward exhaustion and forces Mr. Putin into a meaningful peace. This could be achieved by working with allies in Europe and the Middle East to increase pressure on Russia’s oil revenues through rigorous enforcement of sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, money-laundering networks and illicit arms sales to Moscow. […] In his first 17 months in office, President Trump has reshaped the geopolitical map—crippling Iran’s economy, unsettling the Venezuelan regime and driving Cuba deeper into crisis. Russia now stands as the next test. If Washington can sustain and escalate coordinated economic pressure, it has the chance to weaken the Kremlin’s war machine and force Putin to choose between economic collapse and a negotiated peace in Europe. – Wall Street Journal
Herman Pirchner Jr writes: Of course, there might be no tipping point at all. Putin understands his personal vulnerability perfectly well, and has moved decisively to limit it. To better control information, he has shut down parts of Russia’s internet. And to prevent a coup or assassination, he has tightened his personal security and stepped up the repression of potential opponents. These measures could enable him to stay in power, and to continue the war. No one knows how the current dilemma created by Putin’s military misadventure will play out. One thing, however, is increasingly clear: The trendlines are not good, either for Russia or for its president. – The Hill
Kateryna Odarchenko writes: Recent polling suggests Ukrainians continue to support anti-corruption reforms and view excessive concentration of political and economic power as a threat to the country’s future. These attitudes reflect a public demand for rules-based governance. If reconstruction produces transparency, Ukraine could finally break with the post-Soviet model that has constrained its development for decades. But if wartime centralization and politically connected business groups become permanent features of the postwar economy, Ukraine may simply exchange one form of oligarchy for another. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Ilya Timtchenko writes: The prospect of losing Crimea increases Putin’s troubles at home, since the one victory Russians were certain his regime could guarantee is now being questioned. This pressure will have significant implications at the negotiating table, and Putin’s demands that Ukraine cede the Donbas will further weaken. Growing pressure is rebalancing leverage in Ukraine’s favor and helping Kyiv get closer to the prospect of discussions centered on the pre-2014 territorial settlement. The outcome is still far from certain, but Putin’s options are being narrowed, pushing him closer to the reality that coming to the negotiating table and ending the war is his only choice. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Andy Pryce writes: Britain should not answer Russian hysteria with empty rhetoric. It should answer with seriousness. It needs to fund hybrid capabilities, rebuild stockpiles, strengthen air and missile defense, while also investing in drones and electronic warfare at speed. It must stop believing that deterrence can be bought after the crisis starts. It must properly communicate the threat to its public. The Kremlin has chosen Britain as a villain because it thinks Britain matters. It mocks Britain because it thinks Britain does not have the stomach to matter for much longer. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Lebanon
Hezbollah said on Tuesday it believes Iran will not sign a final nuclear deal with Washington unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon, as Iran’s top diplomat said Israel’s continued troop presence in Lebanon would be considered a breach of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. – Reuters
Israeli drone strikes targeted three vehicles in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least four people and wounding others, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported. – Reuters
Lebanon has suffered the deadliest spillover of the regional war triggered by the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran more than three months ago, which is set to end with a deal between Washington and Tehran. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
Turkey does not want an extension of the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline agreement under current conditions, a senior Turkish official said, after Baghdad asked Ankara to extend it for at least a year to allow time for more talks. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s new airline Riyadh Air won the right to operate flights to and from the United States, the U.S. Transportation Department said in an order Tuesday. – Reuters
After weeks of frenzied negotiations, it was Qatar that emerged as the mediator that helped clinch an agreement between the US and Iran. – Bloomberg
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi on Tuesday urged Israel to abandon its plan to take control of 70 percent of Gaza, while witnesses in the Strip said the Israel Defense Forces had pushed forward the Yellow Line that divided the enclave into areas controlled by Hamas and Israel. – Times of Israel
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa fears that a military intervention against Hezbollah could be perceived in the Arab world as a move to defend Israel, thereby damaging his regional standing, Kan 11 News reported Tuesday evening, citing a Syrian source familiar with the mindset among the ruling elite in Damascus. – Arutz Sheva
Dana Stroul writes; During Epic Fury, the U.S. military proved its operational value to Middle Eastern partners and confirmed its unique conventional capabilities. Shared wartime experience ought to give the United States a good foundation from which to rebuild and expand its partnerships. But the discordance between the strong relationships the United States continues to enjoy with regional militaries and its increasingly tense political relationships is growing. The Trump administration must leverage Central Command’s accomplishments to deliver an agreement that blunts Iran’s threat. And it must make systemic changes to how Washington works with regional partners. If it falls short on either front, Epic Fury will stand as the defining contradiction of U.S. power—a display of unequaled military might that ushered in a post-American Middle East. – Foreign Affairs
Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung asked U.S. President Donald Trump to take the lead in seeking a peaceful resolution of tensions with North Korea during a brief exchange at the Group of Seven summit on Tuesday, Lee’s office said. – Reuters
South Korea will shift a line running parallel to the military border with North Korea to narrow the area that restricts civilian access to reflect an evolving security environment and for the convenience of local residents, the defence minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters
South Korea’s central bank said on Wednesday inflation was expected to exceed its target through next year, as upward price pressures remained high despite progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the war. – Reuters
China
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has escalated his fight against corruption into a ruthless campaign to enforce political loyalty. Communist Party enforcers punished nearly a million people in 2025, the highest number on record and more than five times that reported when Xi took power. – Wall Street Journal
China is quietly expanding its export control regime against the United States and American allies, reaching beyond rare earth minerals to pinch choke points that affect key U.S. industries, according to investors, business leaders and supply chain analysts. – Washington Post
China said on Wednesday that it will take countermeasures in response to a new Taiwan government website for Chinese nationals to report intelligence tips, saying the site exposed Taipei’s “confrontational mindset”. – Reuters
Emerging markets suffer from inadequate representation at the United Nations, its authority increasingly challenged by escalating political and economic disputes worldwide, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The Chinese embassy in Britain said on Tuesday it had lodged “serious representations” with British authorities after London announced sanctions on several entities, including four from China, for allegedly supplying key military equipment to Russia. – Reuters
Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing’s state visit to China is set to give the former junta chief a significant diplomatic boost as he seeks to consolidate his grip on power in the war-torn country following a widely condemned election at the turn of the year. – Reuters
A magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit the northwestern Chinese province of Qinghai on Tuesday, killing at least one person and injuring four, as rescuers rushed to the site in search of trapped survivors. – Reuters
South Asia
Indian shares climbed on Wednesday, building on a three-day rally fuelled by declining crude oil prices following a recent U.S.-Iran peace deal. – Reuters
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump shook hands and smiled on the sidelines of a Group of Seven summit in France ahead of their first bilateral meeting in a year. – Bloomberg
Grace Stanhope writes: The future of Myanmar’s fractured state is far from clear. The conflict is protracted and multilayered, and any durable political settlement will need to contend with a pluralist distribution of legitimacy and the generational justice implications of conflict and earlier genocide allegations. What can be concluded with clarity, though, is that a sham election, funded by an external autocracy, is not a foundation for peace. And beyond shoring up the grip of the regime on internal security and keeping the scam center industry at bay, there is little incentive for Beijing to intervene further. – Foreign Policy
Asia
Japan’s imports grew at a faster pace last month as a war-induced oil shock drove up global energy costs, forcing the country to scramble for alternative supplies. – Wall Street Journal
The Bank of Japan joined other major global central banks in raising interest rates to head off an expected spike in inflation fueled by higher energy costs from the war in the Middle East. – New York Times
Australia’s weather bureau warned on Tuesday that an El Nino weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify in the second half of 2026 to become one of the strongest in seven decades. – Reuters
Australia cannot be a multicultural society and immigration policies have put the country in crisis, Pauline Hanson said on Wednesday, as the right-wing leader enjoys a surge in support for her One Nation party. – Reuters
The Philippine Senate removed an ally of former president Rodrigo Duterte as Senate president on Wednesday and elected a new leader just weeks before the expected start of Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. – Reuters
Australia on Wednesday relaxed its travel advice for several Middle Eastern countries, allowing Australians to transit through and travel to the biggest Gulf air hubs with the security of being covered by insurance. – Reuters
A floating structure in a contested shoal in the South China Sea has been removed, the Philippines said, after Manila lodged a diplomatic protest over what it called an “illegal” move by Beijing. – Bloomberg
A 6.7 magnitude earthquake shook part of central Indonesia ’s Sulawesi island Tuesday, killing at least one resident, injuring dozens of people, damaging homes and infrastructure and rattling residents of a city devastated by a quake and tsunami eight years ago, officials said. – Associated Press
Malaysia has become the latest customer for the Caesar self-propelled howitzer, manufacturer KNDS announced today. The company made the announcement at Eurosatory, making the Southeast Asian nation the 15th customer for the Caesar. – Breaking Defense
Joseph Bosco writes: At the same time, Trump should clarify his National Defense Strategy by declaring that the U.S. will defend Taiwan, and undo the damage to his national security credibility by approving the pending $14 billion arms transfer opposed by Xi. The three actions described here will not only establish Trump’s dominance in the most consequential bilateral relationship of the post-war era, but will resolve the security dilemma that has bedeviled every administration since then. – The Hill
Hilton Yip writes: Whether the DPP can adopt a more pragmatic stance is crucial to Taiwan’s future. Even if this requires backing down on its long-term refusal to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus and distancing itself from its pro-independence stance, the DPP leadership should realize that Taiwan’s future is at stake here. In a social media post on May 17, Lai said Taiwan was its own entity and not something to be “traded away.” In this, he is right—Taiwan’s fate should not be decided between the United States and China, which is why Lai and his party should be doing whatever they can to be able to speak to China and decide Taiwan’s fate on more favorable terms. – Foreign Policy
Europe
President Trump has spent the past four months focused on the war with Iran, but the Group of Seven summit here has left him little choice but to turn his attention back to the conflict in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal
The European Union has learned to be “the boring partner” in a relationship with the U.S. newly marked by disagreements over trade tariffs, the president of the European Parliament said, noting the importance of stability in the multitrillion-dollar trading partnership. – Wall Street Journal
European lawmakers on Tuesday approved their trade deal with the U.S., ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Trump that would have seen tariffs on cars increase. – Wall Street Journal
German investor confidence improved unexpectedly sharply this month on hopes the war in the Middle East would end soon and prompt energy prices to cool. – Wall Street Journal
G7 leaders called on Tuesday for a strong and coordinated response to the Ebola outbreak in Congo, urging other nations to dedicate resources in a bid to ensure the virus remains contained to as small an area as possible. – Reuters
France’s domestic intelligence agency DGSI will replace tools from U.S. tech firm Palantir (PLTR.O), in favour of a French rival, ChapsVision, the French Prime Minister’s office said on Tuesday, although the process is likely to take several years. – Reuters
Pope Leo on Tuesday praised the interim deal between the United States and Iran to end the regional war in the Middle East, saying “thanks be to God” that the two powers are set to formalize their accord on Friday. – Reuters
Cyprus’ anti-corruption watchdog on Tuesday said it had identified possible abuse of power by former president Nicos Anastasiades while in office, referring the matter to the island’s top prosecutor for further consideration. – Reuters
Iceland should join the European Union to help it boost its economy, stand up to larger trade partners and withstand Arctic rivalry, the island’s finance minister told Reuters, ahead of a public vote on whether to restart talks with Brussels. – Reuters
Romania’s prime minister-designate Adrian Vestea said late on Monday he would attempt to form a government and get it approved by parliament, despite his own Liberal Party’s call for his resignation. – Reuters
Lithuania’s ruling Social Democrat party said on Tuesday that its chair Mindaugas Sinkevicius plans to become prime minister, replacing Inga Ruginiene of the same party who held the position since last year. – Reuters
Germany and Poland were set to sign a new defense agreement Wednesday, putting aside their complicated past to strengthen European military cooperation at a time of heightened tension with Russia and growing uncertainty over U.S. engagement in Europe. – Associated Press
The US is asking Europe to designate more of its military hardware for a NATO crisis, pressing the continent to fill gaps as Washington withdraws assets from the alliance. – Bloomberg
European officials are wary of committing naval ships that could be placed in danger because US President Donald Trump wants to open up the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible. – Bloomberg
NATO officials on Tuesday sought to project confidence that Europe could absorb deep American military cuts to the alliance — even as the continent lacks some of the weapons Washington is planning to withdraw and has no clear path to replacing them. – Bloomberg
The Hungarian parliament has voted to adopt a monumental constitutional amendment that introduces a strict eight-year cap on the prime minister’s tenure, the BBC reported. The legislative overhaul directly fulfills a foundational campaign pledge made by the newly elected Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, to ensure that his predecessor, Viktor Orban, is permanently blocked from reclaiming the nation’s highest office. – Arutz Sheva
NATO has “really changed a lot in the last three to four years,” since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the alliance to rethink how it learns, experiments, and operates, a top NATO transformation official said. – Defense One
German defense giant Rheinmetall unveiled a new concept for inundating battlefields with scores of loitering munitions: having them streak by the dozens out of 20-foot shipping containers. – Defense News
KNDS, the French-German maker of the Leopard tank and the Caesar truck-mounted gun, pitched a new howitzer with a barrel longer than any NATO production artillery, which the company said gives the weapon a range of up to 60 kilometers (37 miles) with standard high-explosive shells. – Defense News
France’s Renault Group will produce military drones with defense technology firm Thales, the companies said on Tuesday, marking a further push by the automaker into defense manufacturing. – Defense News
Florence Gaub and Jonathan Heist write: There is also a simpler explanation. NATO endures because its members, when forced to choose, have consistently decided that the alternative is worse. Contrary to the beliefs of those who see in every spat the potential end of the transatlantic relationship, the alliance is not held together by sentiment, shared values, or the memory of two world wars, although all of those play an adhesive role. It is held together by a calculation that the security costs of abandoning it exceed the political costs of sustaining it. That calculation has held through the many crises of the last eight decades; it is holding now. None of this means the current crisis is trivial or that NATO’s future is guaranteed. But the appropriate response to uncertainty is not to mistake a familiar fight for a fatal one. – Foreign Affairs
Africa
Health officials on Tuesday warned that the Ebola outbreak in East Africa could significantly worsen, saying it could last as long as a year and infect thousands of people if current transmission rates go on unabated. – New York Times
A clutch of advocacy groups on Tuesday urged the U.S. government to make an experimental Ebola treatment by Mapp Biopharmaceutical available for clinical trials and emergency use in countries responding to the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak. – Reuters
Armed assailants removed a woman and her daughter from a health centre in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, authorities said on Tuesday, raising fears of further spread of the Ebola virus. – Reuters
Equatorial Guinea’s government resigned on Tuesday after failing to meet its objectives, the West African oil-producing country’s Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue said. – Reuters
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Tuesday warned against blaming migrants for the country’s economic pain, saying they should not be scapegoated for South Africa’s problems. – Reuters
Nigeria has put hundreds more suspected Islamist militants on trial in its latest round of mass prosecutions, as authorities step up efforts to tackle a long-running insurgency, Attorney-General Lateef Fagbemi said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Lead vaccine candidates developed by Oxford University and Moderna against Ebola Bundibugyo, the deadly virus that has swept through eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, could enter Phase 1 trials as early as July, with field trials possible within several months, the head of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Richard Hatchett, said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Congo’s opposition on Tuesday condemned the adoption of a bill that could open the door to a third term for President Félix Tshisekedi, denouncing what they say is a power grab. – Associated Press
African and Commonwealth nations called Tuesday for a swift implementation of a landmark treaty protecting the high seas, warning that despite record commitments to marine conservation, much of the world’s ocean protection still exists only on paper. – Associated Press
Taiwan blasted Kenya for “brazenly” blocking its participation at an international maritime event, after officials in the African country detained a scholar for 20 hours and declined to recognize her Taiwanese passport. – Bloomberg
The Americas
The World Bank Group on Tuesday approved a guarantee-backed financing package to help mobilize up to $2 billion in commercial loans for Argentina, which will help the country reduce its financing costs and strengthen public debt management, the institution said in a statement. – Reuters
Whoever is elected Colombia’s next president in a Sunday vote will have limited room to carry out his economic agenda, economists, policymakers and investors said, citing mounting fiscal problems and a divided Congress which could make it hard to pass economic reforms. – Reuters
Past the outskirts of Peru’s sprawling coastal capital, where the Andes begin to rise, a small mountain district was perfectly split in the presidential runoff — a stark snapshot of the deep divide shaping the country’s politics. – Reuters
Jamaica is in talks with Washington over accepting third-country migrants deported by the United States, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister and Security Minister Horace Chang said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva extended an advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff in the October general elections, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Tuesday. – Reuters
China was the fastest-growing buyer of Latin American and Caribbean goods in the first three months of 2026, a report by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) showed on Tuesday, but the U.S. remained the region’s top market. – Reuters
The U.S. military attacked a boat accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, killing one man and leaving two survivors, as the Trump administration continues its monthslong campaign against alleged traffickers in Latin America. – Associated Press
Police in Brazil have arrested 25 people in a crackdown on the criminal gang Tren de Aragua from neighboring Venezuela after it developed ties with Brazilian organized crime groups, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Two police officers who were held hostage for almost a year by Colombia’s largest remaining rebel group were released Tuesday, the nation’s human rights defender’s office said. – Associated Press
North America
U.S. and Mexican negotiators meet in Washington on Tuesday for a second round of talks focused on agriculture and energy in an effort to revamp the North American trade agreement, as President Donald Trump casts doubt on the future of a 32-year-old free trade zone that also includes Canada. – Reuters
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres visited Haiti on Tuesday, where surging gang violence has left more than 1 in 10 people homeless. New statistics released by the U.N. reveal that 2,300 people have been killed across Haiti so far this year, with another 100 kidnapped, while 1.5 million have been displaced. – Associated Press
Mexico’s leftist ruling party is seeking to annul a local election that a centrist opposition party swept earlier this month, raising questions over how the still-dominant Morena party of President Claudia Sheinbaum might respond to setbacks in nationwide midterm elections set for next year. – Bloomberg
Cuba’s top political leaders are assessing economic proposals that aim to boost foreign investment, shrink the state and stave off a collapse in the face of Donald Trump’s intense pressure campaign. – Bloomberg
A broad syndication of guns-for-hire is driving a wave of targeted violence across Toronto, including the shooting at the US Consulate and multiple attacks on local synagogues, according to findings detailed by the Toronto Police Service. – Arutz Sheva
The government of Canada has begun negotiations to buy the Leonardo-made M-346 trainer aircraft, according to a statement today from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office.- Breaking Defense
Raquel Garbers writes: The inconvenient truth is that Carney inherited “really bad cards,” as President Donald Trump might put it, at the very moment the U.S. is demanding a new trade deal as part of its efforts to rebuild its national power and contest China. If the prime minister’s negotiation strategy includes leveraging the implicit threat of an ever deeper partnership with Beijing to wring trade concessions out of the U.S. — as seems might be the case — he’s playing a risky game. Canada’s partnership with China has already bestowed gifts on Beijing dressed up as wins for Canada: investment opportunities that create openings for economic development. – Washington Examiner
United States
Many of the hawkish conservatives who rushed to President Trump’s defense at the beginning of the war with Iran now fear he is at risk of losing at the negotiating table, emboldening Tehran and setting back joint U.S.-Israeli interests in the process. – Wall Street Journal
A group of people made detailed plans to attack last Sunday’s UFC cage-fighting match on the White House lawn using drones and snipers, but the plot was uncovered when a concerned mother called the police, law-enforcement officials said Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal
Five decades ago, four burglars broke into a billionaire’s safe, setting off a chain of events that exposed and foiled one of the CIA’s most ambitious operations against the Soviets. – Wall Street Journal
New Mexico investigators have sent letters to JPMorgan Chase, Google and more than two dozen companies ordering them to lock down records tied to Jeffrey Epstein and some of his associates, a sign of the widening criminal probe into his former Zorro Ranch. – Wall Street Journal
The Senate on Tuesday thwarted Democrats’ latest attempt to force President Trump to seek authorization for the war in Iran, with Republicans largely banding together behind the president amid skepticism about a cease-fire deal he has yet to share with Congress. – New York Times
Former U.S. vice president Mike Pence sharply criticized the diplomatic memorandum of understanding taking shape between the Trump administration and Iran. In an interview with CNN, Pence said the agreement “smells of appeasement” and grants Tehran extensive concessions without demanding meaningful reciprocal measures. – Arutz Sheva
A US federal appeals court has cleared the way for the Trump administration to keep enforcing economic sanctions against United Nations Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese, notorious for her anti-Israel bias. – Arutz Sheva
Cybersecurity
G7 leaders discussed a plan to grant select “trusted partners” access to advanced AI models from U.S. firms such as Anthropic, three diplomatic sources said on Tuesday, potentially opening a path around restrictions on non-American use. – Reuters
France’s cybersecurity agency ANSSI said on Tuesday it would stop certifying security products that lack quantum-resistant encryption, a move that will force government bodies and critical operators to shift away from older systems. – Reuters
The European Commission is still in contact with U.S. artificial intelligence company Anthropic over its decision to disable its most advanced AI models following an order from the government and other issues, a Commission spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters
An Australian court on Wednesday banned former Star Entertainment CEO Matthias Bekier from managing companies for six years and fined him A$700,000 ($494,620) over failure to handle money laundering risks at the casino operator. – Reuters
Japanese technology giant SoftBank Group Corp. is launching a service using OpenAI technology to protect against the looming threat of cyberattacks, both companies said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang — whose work helped propel artificial intelligence — stressed in an Associated Press interview Tuesday that society needs to change with the advent of AI, arguing that a fuller embrace of the technology would improve people’s lives. – Associated Press
OpenAI will bring ChatGPT to GenAI.mil, the Pentagon’s generative-AI platform, in “early July,” a company official said Tuesday. The AI firm is working with the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office, Mohammed Husain—the company’s strategic delivery lead for cyber—said at the Defense One Tech Summit in Arlington, Virginia. – Defense One
Signatories across industry, academia and expert groups issued a public letter Monday asking the Trump administration to roll back new restrictions imposed on Anthropic’s Fable 5 model. – Defense One
Virginia-based, data-labeling and AI startup Enabled Intelligence is expanding its repository of curated datasets that government and commercial partners use for model training and deployments to include a new collection of drone footage recorded in Ukraine amid the ongoing war. – Defensescoop
Members of Congress responded with skepticism and caution Tuesday to the Trump administration’s decision to impose export controls on Anthropic’s newest AI models. – Cyberscoop
A policy paper published Tuesday advocates for software bills of materials (SBOMs) for artificial intelligence as a mechanism for reducing cyber risk and improving transparency, and seeks to give lawmakers, federal agencies and others a roadmap on how to proceed. – Cyberscoop
Editorial: Meantime, the White House’s resistance to expanding Mythos to more U.S. allies and companies is compromising our collective cyber-security. Yes, there’s a risk that bad actors could surreptitiously gain access to Mythos and use it to exploit cyber gaps, but the Chinese are already working on models to do that. It would be better for companies to use Mythos to find and patch vulnerabilities before Chinese state-sponsored hackers use AI to exploit them—and before Chinese models with no safeguards proliferate among our adversaries, including Iran, Russia and North Korea. They’re the enemies, not Anthropic. – Wall Street Journal
Ross Douthat writes: Finally I should note that from the point of view of many A.I. forecasters, this sketch of future conflict is the optimistic scenario, because it assumes that human actors and human institutions — nation-states, empires, executives, presidents — are still the ones fighting for control. These human wars will be waged in the shadow of the darker scenario — where the war that counts is with our own creation, and the stakes aren’t whether Anthropic or the Pentagon or Beijing has the most power, but whether human beings have any influence at all. – New York Times
Lindsey Granger writes: If these platforms can engineer sophisticated algorithms that predict what a teenager wants to watch next, they can certainly build stronger protections for kids. The reality is that legislation is moving slowly. Court fights could take years. But children are growing up on these platforms right now. Whether you support an outright ban or not, one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to argue: the status quo isn’t working. The conversation shouldn’t just be about what governments are willing to do. It should also be about what social media companies are willing to do when nobody is forcing them. Because protecting kids shouldn’t require a lawsuit. – The Hill
Defense
President Trump invoked a Cold War-era law in an effort to increase production of important munitions, according to a memo released Tuesday, a step that signals the U.S. is concerned about a potential shortfall in weapons after heavy usage in Iran. – Wall Street Journal
General Motors is in talks with Lockheed Martin about making parts for the defense contractor’s weapons, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will attend a gathering of his NATO counterparts in Belgium this week, pushing a message of burden-sharing that has become a hallmark of Trump administration defense policy. – Bloomberg
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran, the United States government revealed in a legal briefing seen Tuesday by AFP. – Times of Israel
Efforts are underway to expand U.S. aircraft and drone capacity at a Philippine air base used by Washington to monitor the South China Sea and assist Manila’s defensive needs, USNI News has learned. The Airbus commercial satellite imagery, publicly shared on Google Earth, shows a clearing has been made at the northwest end of Basa Air Base that matches plans previously published on project solicitation documents detailing the project. – USNI News
The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) has awarded defense manufacturing company Mach Industries a contract award for the Runway Independent Maritime Expeditionary Strike (RIMES) program, in pursuit of a drone to execute long-range strikes with minimal infrastructure. – Breaking Defense