Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russia’s invading army shelled the positions of Ukrainian defenders along the front line as both sides girded for the next battles for control of Ukraine’s east. – Wall Street Journal

Four months after Russia invaded Ukraine, foreign combat veterans who answered the Ukrainian president’s call to fight are grappling with the grueling reality of a war unlike any they have seen. – New York Times

Russia’s steady advances in eastern Ukraine, relying on superior firepower and larger numbers of troops, are grinding down Ukraine’s military and setting the stage for a protracted war of attrition in which Kyiv needs more Western weapons and help training new soldiers to turn the tide. – Wall Street Journal

A top Kremlin official warned the U.S. Wednesday that it could face the “wrath of God” if it pursues efforts to help establish an international tribunal to investigate Russia’s action in Ukraine, while the Russian lower house speaker urged Washington to remember that Alaska used to belong to Russia. – Associated Press

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has flown into Indonesia’s resort island of Bali for a meeting of G20 foreign ministers, which is set to be overshadowed by tensions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. – Reuters

Russia will give the state greater control over private business and workers in order to put the economy on a stronger war footing, signalling that the country is preparing for the long-haul in its battle for control of Ukraine. – Financial Times

News emerged Wednesday on the six Belarusian soldiers who went missing in the Luhansk region late last month after they volunteered to fight for Ukraine against Russia, with reports confirming at least one had been killed and another captured. – Fox News

Russia’s parliament on Wednesday rushed through two bills imposing strict controls on the economy, requiring businesses to supply goods to the armed forces and obliging employees at some firms to work overtime. – Reuters

Russia claims to have made use of a new advanced weapon system in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine: An anti-drone gun, Russian media outlet TASS reported, citing an unnamed security source. – Jerusalem Post

Russian state TV host Olga Skabeyeva suggested that the Kremlin has the power to propel Donald Trump back into the White House if he runs again in 2024. – Business Insider

The US and its allies have discussed trying to cap the price on Russian oil between $40 and about $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), the first and only Ukrainian-born member of Congress, publicly criticized President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for how they have been navigating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Examiner

It is important to bear in mind that the Kremlin friendly VTsIOM (The Russian Public Opinion Research Center] and FOM (The Public Opinion Research Center) together with the Levada Center that is fighting for its very existence after being designated a foreign agent do not conduct their surveys without constraints. However, the three polling agencies have recently concurred that Russians are beginning to tune out of coverage of the “Special Operation” in Ukraine. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Josh Rogin writes: By dragging its feet on giving Zelensky the weapons he is asking for, the United States risks ensuring that the stalemate persists, which ultimately redounds to Putin’s benefit. The Biden administration underestimated Ukrainian forces in the first stage of the war. It must not repeat the same mistake now. – Washington Post

Yulia Latynina writes: A world without a war is only a dream. When the strong and just refuse to fight with the weapons they have, thugs and bullies can do what they want. The West must build precision weapons that can take out Russia’s nuclear silos—and let Mr. Putin know that they aren’t afraid to use them. Develop drones that can hunt and kill terrorists. An open society can’t dictate to rogue states how to live. But it should be able to prevent aggression like the invasion of Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel Yergin writes: The global mismatch between demand and available supply for oil and natural gas is precarious. It will likely get worse over the next few months as Mr. Putin steps up his energy war, China’s demand increases as it comes out of Covid shut-ins, the dislocations in the global-supply system increase, and the tight balance between supply and demand tightens even further. – Wall Street Journal

Andreas Kluth writes: We must constantly reevaluate what role the past plays in the present, which is our ward. What matters today is not who Stepan Bandera was on balance. It’s who Vladimir Putin is, what atrocities he’s committing every day, and how Ukrainians are resisting. Ukrainians have plenty of contemporary role models to choose from in their valiant struggle. They can afford to leave behind those no longer fit for purpose. – Bloomberg

Bryan Clark and Peter Rough writes: The time has come to break Russia on both fronts. As much as the Biden administration would like to contain the war by limiting Ukrainian access to better weapons, the stakes are already global. Ukraine has pleaded with the West since the start of the war for the tools it needs to fight back and win. Now the rest of the world is counting on it, too. – Foreign Policy

Mark Temnycky writes: Ukraine is best placed to decide when negotiations are viable and to determine the terms. That is because the country has already made a down payment in blood and destruction. The democratic community should of course offer its advice to the government, but ultimately it is in everyone’s interest that Ukraine defeats Russia, and ensures that Russia never again invades its neighbors. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Leonid Bershidsky writes:  It’s painful to many — including me — that allowing Russia’s export trade to continue as before funds Putin’s war effort and multiplies human suffering. But cutting Russia out of the food supply equation is hardly realistic. Plenty of other ways exist to make the Putin regime pay for the outrage it has wreaked on Ukraine, such as the confiscation of Russia’s international reserves to pay for the ravaged nation’s reconstruction. – Bloomberg

Syria

As the U.N. Security Council prepares to vote Thursday on humanitarian aid deliveries to rebel-held northwest Syria from Turkey, Russia agreed to continue such deliveries but only for six months — not a year, as many U.N. Security Council members, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and more than 30 nongovernmental groups want. – Associated Press

Over the past two years, Adila Afesh has seen the food assistance her Syrian family receives shrink by nearly two-thirds. Now, she fears Russia — perhaps seeking to retaliate against Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine — will block the renewal of a U.N. Security Council resolution that allows aid to be delivered from Turkey to Syrians who, like her family, live in the rebel-run Idlib province. – Associated Press

A Syrian militant working with the Syrian Army was killed in an alleged Israeli drone strike in Quneitra in southwestern Syria on Wednesday, according to Syrian state news agency SANA. – Jerusalem Post

Arabian Peninsula

Qatar has built an outsized role in global commodity markets since it first began exporting liquefied natural gas more than two decades ago. Now, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a series of deals to develop a new gasfield, the Gulf state’s influence over international energy flows is set to grow even larger. – Financial Times

Yemen Shiite Houthi rebels have set a new condition for partially lifting the siege of the city of Taiz as a part of the truce which went into effect April 2. – Bloomberg

The United Arab Emirates is cutting red tape to make it easier and quicker for digital companies to incorporate, the latest economic policy announcement as the government seeks to further diversify the economy away from oil revenues. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Americans whose relatives are detained in Saudi Arabia and Egypt called on President Biden to help secure their freedom as he prepares to meet the leaders of the two Middle Eastern countries during a trip to the region next week. – Wall Street Journal

While the idealism of the Arab Spring for the most part has long faded, Tunisia has been seen as an exception. Now even that country’s stint as a near-democracy is about to end with a return to full autocracy, as the president, Kais Saied, has consolidated all powers in his hands. – New York Sun

Yesterday, Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan sent an urgent letter to the Security Council and the UN Secretary-General demanding immediate action against Hezbollah positions recently established near the northern border of Israel that serve as cover for terrorist activities. – Arutz Sheva

Lebanon plans to start sending back tens of thousands of Syrian refugees within months over objections by the United Nations and rights groups, a minister said in an interview Wednesday. – Associated Press

Recently, ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there have been many reports that the U.S. administration intends to promote the establishment of a NATO-like military alliance in the region in order to confront various security threats, chief of them Iran. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Leena Khan writes: Erdoğan views the international stage through a lens of opportunities. The emerging power vacuum in Syria is the next opportunity for him to pursue Turkey’s national security agenda and quash the PKK while strengthening his political position at home. A Turkish invasion would feed the increasingly nationalist fervor in Turkey that has kept Erdoğan in power for so long. – Middle East Institute

Osama al Sharif writes: For Jordan it was important to pre-empt any talk about Israeli membership of a potential regional military alliance. This will remain its position as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is unresolved. One thing pundits in Amman are certain of though is that intra-Arab differences and rivalries, even when it comes to Iran, will ensure that there will be a long, long way to go before an open military alliance with Israel comes into existence. – Middle East Institute

China

The heads of the FBI and Britain’s domestic security service issued sharply worded warnings to business leaders about the threats posed by Chinese espionage, especially spying aimed at stealing Western technology companies’ intellectual property. – Wall Street Journal

Learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China is looking for ways to protect its economy from the threat of international sanctions should a confrontation over Taiwan occur, “a clue” to Beijing’s view of what the future holds, the F.B.I. director said Wednesday. – New York Times

China launched a scathing attack on the U.S. and NATO on Wednesday, days before a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. – Associated Press

Signs are mounting that China’s economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since 2020, placing the nation’s official statistics under fresh scrutiny as analysts bet the government will avoid acknowledging that slump. – Bloomberg

Maurice R. Greenberg writes: The U.S. and China have a long history of collaboration dating to before World War II. When the People’s Republic of China reopened to the world, the U.S. extended favorable trade terms to foster China’s economic growth, becoming one of China’s biggest trading partners, which we continue to be today. – Wall Street Journal

Greg Ip writes: That brings us to the China tariffs. Mr. Trump imposed them to force China to alter its own discriminatory practices. Yet without any sign of such concessions, Mr. Biden plans to roll some back as a gesture of concern for inflation, which is battering his popularity. Bill Bishop, author of the China-focused newsletter Sinocism, wrote this would “further confirm the view held by some in Beijing…that the U.S. does not have the stomach for ‘protracted war’” with China. – Wall Street Journal

Ian Buruma writes: Promising ever-growing prosperity is a fragile basis for political legitimacy in any case. All economies, including China’s, have their ups and downs. If, because of bad political decisions, geopolitics or the ravages of climate change, the Chinese economy were to falter badly and prosperity was no longer guaranteed, the China Model could break down very swiftly. Xi’s confidence seems premature at best — and, most likely, dangerously misplaced. – Bloomberg

Asia

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Thursday regional architecture such as the Pacific Islands Forum was critical in resolving regional problems and local security issues should be resolved locally. – Reuters

Uzbekistan’s president blamed “foreign forces” on Wednesday for inciting unrest in the Central Asian state’s autonomous Karakalpakstan republic, where the government says 18 people were killed in violent clashes last week. – Reuters

Editorial: The upshot is that the United States should use its power as the IMF’s largest shareholder to help countries restructure their debts, but this will be much harder to do with a multiplicity of private bondholders involved and with China engaged in the equivalent of international predatory lending. Sri Lanka presents an opportunity for the Biden administration to fashion a rescue in conjunction with other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — India, Japan and Australia. That could both mitigate suffering and show the entire Indo-Pacific that it pays to deal with the United States rather than China or Russia. – Washington Post

Africa

Rwanda and Congo have agreed to reduce tensions following one-day talks between their presidents mediated by Angola, Congo’s presidency announced Wednesday. – Associated Press

Islamic State claimed responsibility on Wednesday for a raid on a Nigerian prison in the capital Abuja which freed around 440 inmates, raising fears that insurgents are venturing from their enclaves in the northeast. – Reuters

The world’s poorest country, according to the UN’s human development index, Niger is rarely considered a geopolitical linchpin. But that is exactly what it has become as successive dominoes fall, terrorism spreads and Russian influence grows in the Sahel, a sub-continental-sized belt of semi-desert stretching thousands of miles across Africa. – Financial Times

Defense

When the U.S. Navy hosted its first advanced tactical training event for surface ships in 2016, it purposely avoided collecting much data: The ships didn’t need another assessment, the thinking went; instead, they needed rigorous training ahead of linking up with the rest of the carrier strike group. Six years later, that is changing. – Defense News

Integration and testing activities for an experimental navigation satellite are ramping up at the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate as the U.S. Space Force prepares to launch its first major positioning, navigation and timing demonstration in nearly 50 years. – Defense News

David Von Drehle writes: It is a measure of the long history of faithful service to the United States that the commission had hundreds of excellent options. In range and meaning, these proposals are inspired. The old names represented division. The new ones should unify. – Washington Post

Ryan C. Berg and Chris Bernotavicius writes: Reinvigorating the IADB will not just enhance its ability to engage on short-term objectives but position it as a leading forum for long-term strategic threats, too, such as IUU fishing, military engagement on climate change, and cohesive responses to disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. As the organization celebrates its 80th year, these critical steps could reinvigorate it and guarantee another 80 years. – Center for Strategic and International Studies