Fdd's overnight brief

July 27, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

An Israeli airstrike on Sunday killed a senior officer of the Hamas-run Palestinian internal security service in the Gaza ​Strip and an associate as they travelled in a vehicle ‌through Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza, medics and police officials said. – Reuters

Israel will allow a multinational security force ​to enter Gaza as proposed under U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan for the ‌enclave, an Israeli official said on Sunday, a day before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to Washington. – Reuters

An Israeli airstrike on Saturday killed the head of ​the Hamas-led police force in the northern Gaza Strip, Brigadier-General Abdel-Nasser Al-Maqadma, the Hamas-run interior ministry and medics said. – Reuters

A United Nations committee on Friday inscribed a major archaeological site in the West Bank and a group of castles in southern Lebanon on the World Heritage List, despite objections from Israel, which had urged the committee to reject the bids. – Associated Press

Israel’s military said it detained over 70 suspects across the occupied West Bank overnight and on Saturday, a day after troops deployed across the territory following violence that left two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinian villagers dead. – Associated Press

The government has banned the import of goods that are produced with the use of forced labor, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to ban goods tied to forced labor was approved as a “step of major moral, economic, and strategic importance, reinforcing the State of Israel’s commitment to the fight against human trafficking and forced labor, alongside safeguarding the interests of the Israeli economy.” – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is “fomenting hate” by calling the Israeli leader a war criminal who should be arrested over the war in Gaza if he visits the city for the United Nations General Assembly. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed at a cabinet meeting on Sunday to expand operations against Palestinian “terrorist strongholds” in the West Bank, after a deadly Friday shootout sparked when settlers illegally entered a Nablus-area village. – Times of Israel

Editorial: At the same time, Palestinian Authority officials and community leaders in the West Bank must do more to condemn and prevent attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops. Every terrorist attack against Israelis deserves an uncompromising response. So too does every attack carried out by Israelis against innocent Palestinians – attacks that have become increasingly common as extremist settlers have grown more comfortable carrying them out with little apparent fear of consequences. Israel cannot allow political considerations to determine which forms of extremism it confronts. The rule of law must apply equally, or it will steadily erode for everyone. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

President Trump has put off a major escalation of his military campaign against Iran amid efforts to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz and a debate over the impact of declining munitions stocks, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump leaned hard on Friday into what he said were negotiations with Iranian officials, seeming to emphasize diplomacy over military escalation after days of attacks by both sides and warnings that the White House was considering a sharp escalation of the war. – Washington Post

The war between the United States and Iran remained on pause for a second straight day on Sunday, while the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that there had been some movement in talks between Tehran and mediators over the Strait of Hormuz. – New York Times

American intelligence agencies believe that Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is far more interested than his father and predecessor in pursuing a nuclear weapon, according to officials briefed on the assessments. – New York Times

Iran ​has not ‌asked to resume ​talks ​with the United ⁠States ​to end ​the war, and the ​situation ​in the Strait ‌of ⁠Hormuz has not changed, ​Iran’s ​foreign ⁠ministry spokesperson, ​Esmaeil Baghaei, ​said ⁠on Monday. – Reuters

Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned on Saturday a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the ​Caspian Sea, saying it resulted in an explosion that killed ‌one sailor and injured another. – Reuters

Iran will halt its own ​attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The development comes as the United States pressed ‌pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump’s advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump ‌has paused attacks on Iran to allow more room for diplomacy, the U.S. ambassador ​to the United Nations said ​on Sunday. “He’s giving talks some space, he’s ⁠giving it a little bit ​of room,” Mike Waltz told the “Fox News ​Sunday” program. – Reuters

A spokesperson for Iran’s ​Revolutionary Guards said ‌on Saturday that Britain would become ​a “definite and ​legitimate target” if it ⁠supported the ​U.S. in any ​war with Tehran, according to Iranian state ​broadcaster IRIB. – Reuters

A Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker carrying 28 Indian crew members was ​attacked in Iranian territorial waters ‌on Friday, the Indian embassy in Tehran said. All Indian crew members are safe ​and the embassy is in ​contact with the authorities, it ⁠said in a statement posted on ​X. – Reuters

The U.S. military said Friday that it fired on another merchant vessel that was trying to breach its blockade of Iran’s ports, while the Islamic Republic targeted American strongholds around the Persian Gulf. – Associated Press

Matthew Gould writes: All of which helps to explain why the regime chose to sabotage a highly attractive deal — not primarily as statecraft or with an eye to Washington, but as internal jockeying by its leaders with an eye on one another. If the U.S. and its allies are to deal effectively with the Iranian regime — calibrating threats, strikes and inducements in the right proportions — they need to understand that the regime is a viper’s nest of leaders and groups with competing claims to power. Much of the time, they are thinking about their internal standing before they think about the West. – Washington Post

Farzin Nadimi writes: In implementing such measures as part of a more coherent strategy, U.S. officials should fixate on the most important goal after months of crisis: raising the cost of Iranian attacks on U.S. forces and international shipping to the point where more pragmatic elements in Tehran conclude that unilateral control of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer viable. If the Trump administration opts to reopen talks—whether after or in place of another military campaign—it must ensure that any future ceasefire agreements use clearer language, lock in verifiable restraints, and spur the regime toward strategic reassessment rather than subsidizing its next round of coercion. – Washington Institute

Russia and Ukraine

Sexual violence in war has long been used to subjugate and terrorize civilian populations. In many conflicts, the most common targets are female civilians. Russian forces committed a large number of sexual assaults against Ukrainian women when they overran towns and villages early in Moscow’s full-scale invasion, launched in 2022, according to the U.N. and interviews conducted by The Wall Street Journal. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and Ukraine exchanged punishing strikes Friday. Ballistic missiles ripped apart a defense industry exhibition outside Kyiv in a rare daytime attack, killing at least 10 people and injuring close to 100 — raising questions and accusations over the decision to openly hold such an event as Moscow rains down missiles on Ukraine. – Washington Post

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said ​on Saturday that Russia wanted to bring ‌in 30,000 North Korean troops to take part in its more than four-year-old conflict and was already preparing ​to receive them. – Reuters

Russian authorities said 11 people including four children had been killed ​by Ukraine in an overnight attack on a holiday camp in a Russian-held part of Ukraine’s ‌Zaporizhzhia region, accusing Kyiv on Saturday of deliberately attacking civilians. – Reuters

Russia considers it premature to comment on reports that the United States and Ukraine are discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part ​of efforts to end the war, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said ‌on Sunday. – Reuters

Twelve people were killed, including five children, in an overnight drone ‌attack on a holiday camp in a Russian-held part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-installed local authorities said on Saturday, accusing Ukraine of deliberately attacking civilians. – Reuters

Ukraine wants a prototype for a European anti-ballistic system codenamed Freyja to be ready within the first half of next year, a senior official said, as Kyiv pushes its allies to help deliver a weapon capable of downing ​Russian missiles. – Reuters

Russian ballistic missiles struck the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv early on Sunday, setting off fires and wounding at least three civilians, while attacks on other parts of the country later killed at least two people, local officials said. – Associated Press

More than four years after Russia launched its assault on Kyiv from Belarus, Ukraine is still fortifying the border it shares with Moscow’s ally. What was once a busy crossing between the two countries is now a quiet, mine-laden stretch of land closed off to civilians. – Associated Press

Hezbollah

The IDF shot down a Hezbollah drone in southern Lebanon on Sunday, Army Radio’s Doron Kadosh reported. The drone was fired upon after it was observed gathering intelligence on IDF soldiers in the Ali Taher Ridge area, according to the report. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for continued jihadist attacks against Israel, while praising the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah in a series of statements attributed to him on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked the late Republican senator Lindsey Graham out of convincing US President Donald Trump to join Israel’s fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to unaired footage seen by The Wall Street Journal. – Times of Israel

Syria

At least 35 people were killed and 30 more injured in Syria on Saturday when a civilian bus collided with another carrying members of the country’s security forces, Syria’s health ministry said. – New York Times

Syria ‌is seeking to reach a security agreement with Israel, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview with Al Jazeera on Sunday. – Reuters

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pledged help for Syrian reconstruction ​on Saturday during the first visit to Damascus by a serving United Nations chief since 2009, before the start of a civil war that killed ‌hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. – Reuters

Turkey

It sounded like a routine transfer of power in northeast Turkey, of regional interest at best. “In accordance with Articles 2, 3 and 4 of Presidential Decree No. 3, Mehmet Fatih Cicekli, the governor of Ardahan, has been removed from office.” – New York Times

Turkish opposition leader Ozgur Ozel and 90 other breakaway lawmakers ‌launched a new political party on Friday, seeking to regroup to challenge President Tayyip Erdogan after their former party faced an unprecedented legal crackdown. – Reuters

Turkey still does not meet the legal requirements to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program, the US State Department said in a letter to Congress obtained by The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi oil facilities Saturday, in the first such strikes since 2022. In a video statement, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group fired ballistic missiles and drones at facilities belonging to the state oil company, Aramco, in the Red Sea towns of Yanbu and Jazan. – Washington Post

Days after the Iranian-backed Houthi militia announced the blockade of a vital shipping passage through the Red Sea, dozens of ships continue to make the journey, according to a review of shipping data. – New York Times

Ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil ‌installations along the Red Sea coast, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz stayed low over the weekend, shipping data from Kpler showed on Monday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia

President Donald Trump on Friday said he ​would not go forward with a civil nuclear deal with ‌Saudi Arabia unless the Saudis agreed to a normalization in relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. – Reuters

An air defence system ​operated by Greek military ‌personnel in Saudi Arabia intercepted two ballistic missiles launched from Yemen ​on Saturday towards oil refineries in Yanbu, ​Greek security sources told Reuters. – Reuters

The White House’s push to let American nuclear energy companies do business with Saudi Arabia could turn a profit for members of US President Donald Trump’s inner circle, The New York Times reported Sunday. – Times of Israel

Matthew Kroenig and Henry Sokolski write: Fortunately, the reported deal contains an escape clause. It doesn’t promise the immediate transfer of uranium-enrichment technology. Rather, it pledges a two-year study into the concept. But it doesn’t take two years to figure out that this is a bad idea. Washington shouldn’t be in the business of transferring nuclear bomb-making capability to Saudi Arabia or any other country. To make sure it doesn’t, Mr. Trump—who relishes getting the best bargain—should renegotiate the deal. Alternatively, Mr. Trump could simply decline to send this bad deal to Congress. If he sends it anyway, lawmakers need to hold hearings and legislate to condition its implementation of making it right. – Wall Street Journal

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso writes: We recognize that Saudi Arabia’s nuclear weapons ambitions are reportedly directly tied to Iran’s capabilities.  While Iran’s capability was largely destroyed during the two wars, the current Iranian regime has not given up its ambition to rebuild its nuclear weapons capabilities, including uranium enrichment. […] On balance, the U.S. agreement with Saudi Arabia could provide more predictability and more leverage for the United States over Saudi Arabia’s future nuclear program, placing the United States in a central role regarding its economy and energy infrastructure.  However, when the full details come out, we will watch closely for adequate guardrails, loopholes, any indications that enrichment technology may be transferred to Saudi Arabia, and an answer to the key question about whether, on balance, this agreement prevents nuclear proliferation or encourages it. – Institute for Science and International Security

Gulf States

Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack sites inside Iran, their first such direct retaliation against Tehran and an indication of the difficult position Arab states find themselves in as the war grinds on, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

The Jewish community here flourished after the Abraham Accords normalizing ties with Israel were signed at the White House during President Donald Trump’s first term. Kosher restaurants sprouted up, rabbis openly celebrated the High Holidays, and the United Arab Emirates inaugurated its first public synagogue. – Washington Post

Canada and the United Arab Emirates ​concluded trade negotiations on Friday, paving the way for an ‌agreement that would help Ottawa diversify trade beyond the United States and help the Middle Eastern nation increase non-oil exports. – Reuters

The main land border crossing ​between Kuwait and ‌Iraq has reopened, Iraq’s state news agency ​cited the country’s ​border crossings authority as ⁠saying on ​Sunday. – Reuters

As the U.S. continues daily strikes on Iran, the Arab states battered by Tehran’s retaliatory attacks are trying to unite to chart a path toward peace. Longstanding tensions are getting in the way. – Politico

Korean Peninsula

Despite such cases, North Korea is underequipped in intelligence gathering, lacking an extensive international web of spies and tools such as a global satellite network. Now, Kim wants to address that. In a rare mention of the country’s spy program earlier this month, he presided over a meeting that called for “radical” enhancements to North Korea’s military reconnaissance and intelligence capabilities, according to state media. – Wall Street Journal

People in North Korea can’t access the internet. But that hasn’t stopped a meaningful share of them from buying smartphones. The Washington Post, with the help of Martyn Williams, a North Korean technology specialist, has gained access to two of the country’s latest smartphones, which offer a remarkable window into daily life in one of the most reclusive countries. – Washington Post

A South Korean court ​on Monday sentenced ‌former President Yoon Suk Yeol to 18 ​months in ​prison, suspended for three ⁠years, after finding ​him guilty of ​violating the election law by making false statements ​during his ​2022 presidential campaign. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s sister denounced calls for denuclearization, describing the country’s nuclear weapons as its “ultimate shield,” state media reported, as Ukraine warned that more North Korean soldiers could join Russia’s war efforts. – Bloomberg

China

For decades, founders and investors in China’s technology firms used tax-haven shell companies to list overseas and keep billions of dollars in offshore centers. The loophole allowed China’s superrich to bypass strict capital controls and avoid government oversight of their wealth. Now, the party is ending. In a series of new rules and laws, China is reordering the wealth landscape, seeking to better control how money leaves the country, with effects rippling beyond its borders. – Wall Street Journal

China said on Sunday it organised a routine ​patrol by its naval and ‌air forces in the South China Sea, accusing the Philippines of holding patrols ​with foreign countries in the ​disputed waterway that undermined regional ⁠peace and stability. – Reuters

China announced on Friday it was adding 14 European entities to an export control list in retaliation for the European Union penalizing 14 Chinese enterprises as part of its latest round of sanctions against Russia. – Associated Press

After spending more than five years in Hong Kong’s prison, former pro-democracy lawmaker Wu Chi-wai finally got to embrace his wife and son in London last week. They wept with joy. But he could be sent back to the Chinese territory this week, far earlier than planned. – Associated Press

China should restrict access to the most powerful features of artificial intelligence models, a state media commentary suggested, highlighting limits to Beijing’s support for open technology. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India appeared to avert one of the biggest crises to hit his government in more than a decade by acquiescing to the demands of an upstart youth movement, prompting its leaders to call off nationwide protests that had shown few signs of fizzling. – New York Times

Myanmar’s military has sharply escalated attacks on civilians since a ‌new administration took office in the war-torn country, a conflict monitor said on Monday, even as regional governments ramp up diplomatic engagement. – Reuters

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Sunday the creation of a task force headed ​by tech entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul ‌India’s examination system, following days of youth protests about exam paper leaks. – Reuters

India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on ​Sunday there was ‌no immediate need to revise federal budget numbers despite ​risks from erratic ​monsoons and higher global oil ⁠prices, as the ​government had set aside ​sufficient buffers for any shocks. – Reuters

Indian authorities have ​suspended a policeman for firing rounds in the air from an assault rifle to disperse student protesters ‌in an eastern state over the weekend, the latest flashpoint in a wave of youth protests that forced the federal education minister to resign. – Reuters

Andy Mukherjee writes: The next general election is in 2029, and three years in politics is too long a timeframe to predict anything. However, one thing is certain. Modi and his No. 2 Amit Shah, the home minister who controls the police in New Delhi, must know just how bad the shoe of inchoate public anger pinches. It was once on the other foot. A similar kind of unrest during the 2011 anti-corruption movement had paved the way for them to wrest power from the Congress 12 years ago. By challenging the government’s aura of invincibility, India’s youth have forced the state to confront the one thing it fears most — an angry, united electorate demanding its rights. – Bloomberg

Asia

Developing countries like Thailand are growing old before they are growing rich. Their societies are aging quickly—but without the pension systems and personal savings that sustain older people in most developed countries. One in six Thais is over the age of 65, the result of a baby bust that began in the 1970s. Within about a decade, the country’s fertility rate plunged from an average of nearly six children per woman to just over two. – Wall Street Journal

Chinese spies stealing trade secrets from Japanese companies. Japanese soldiers unknowingly using USB drives infected with Chinese malware. A cyberattack on Japan’s space agency by hacking groups linked to the Chinese military. – Washington Post

As armed Chinese ships expand patrols around Taiwan, officials in Taipei are more urgently testing how they would keep fuel and other vital supplies flowing if Beijing tried to choke off the island. – New York Times

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said ‌government efforts to boost the country’s growth potential will underpin market trust in the yen, countering views that the rising cost of living from the weak currency was hurting her approval ratings. – Reuters

The U.S. and Japan joined the Philippines in maritime exercises in the South China Sea, as the Filipino and Chinese governments traded accusations ​following an encounter between vessels from their countries in the disputed ‌waters. – Reuters

Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo suddenly resigned for unspecified “personal reasons,” unnerving investors who had viewed the central banker as a stabilizing force in an economy whipsawed by the policies of President Prabowo Subianto. – Bloomberg

John Lee writes: The Trump era will pass when the next U.S. president is elected, in November 2028. But as the United States continues to lead technological innovation and expand its military, the power disparity between Washington and its allies is likely to increase. Allies in western Europe and Asia will grow even more vulnerable to changes in U.S. policy and more dependent on American power for protection. Even after Trump leaves the White House, the question for U.S. allies on both sides of the world will be how to make the most of an unequal relationship. The United States’ Pacific allies have adapted and positioned themselves advantageously in a changing world order. Its Atlantic ones must accept that Europe’s privileged position in the global order is fading and learn to be more comfortable playing by Washington’s new rules. – Foreign Affairs

Europe

The main suspect in a car-ramming attack that left at least one dead in Berlin was killed by police special forces on Sunday evening, German police said. Police had tracked down Abdul Ballout, a 21-year-old German citizen, to the Western Berlin district of Spandau and were seeking to detain him when he attacked them with a knife, Berlin police spokesman Florian Nath said. – Wall Street Journal

The International Criminal Court ousted Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan on Friday over sexual assault allegations, ICC officials said, thrusting the court into a new period of uncertainty as the institution faces a multifront attack by the Trump administration. – Wall Street Journal

The authorities in Belgium said on Saturday that a Canadian intern at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military headquarters had been arrested on suspicion of spying for another country. – New York Times

Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham “will always put Britain’s interests first”, he ‌told the BBC in an interview when asked whether he was willing to call out U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Six people have been ​held in custody and ‌are expected to face charges over a ​foiled attack ​earlier this month that allegedly ⁠targeted a ​synagogue in the Paris ​suburb of Sarcelles, the French anti-terrorism prosecutor said ​on Saturday. – Reuters

Romania shot down a suspected Russian drone after it crossed into its airspace on Sunday — the third such incursion in three days in the Eastern European nation that’s both a European Union and a NATO member, the country’s president said. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump floated plans Friday to place a “substantial” new tariff on the European Union, accusing the bloc of “robbing” American companies and pledging to initiate a trade investigation after the EU fined Google for illegal trade practices. – Politico

Editorial: The money for defense has to come from somewhere. Yet Mr. Burnham’s predecessor, Keir Starmer, faced a revolt within his own Labour Party last summer when he tried to pass modest disability reforms. Mr. Burnham seems disinclined to try even that, while promising to ramp-up other domestic spending. Britain is a case study in how expansive social welfare subsumes government budgets and makes countries less prosperous and less secure. It’s a lesson for America, if anyone in Washington is paying attention. – Wall Street Journal

Martin Ivens writes: This new British government will need to set out its priorities more clearly as it takes its place on a wobbly international stage. Last week, his national-security team reportedly struggled to get the PM’s ear even as the war in the Gulf heated up and Iran threatened to attack US air bases in Britain. Keen to hit the ground running, Burnham was too intent on hitting the road to front his cost of living campaign. If Trump doubles down on aerial bombardment however, Burnham will be forced to listen. Foreign affairs often turn out to be a lot more than a sideshow to domestic agendas. – Bloomberg

Africa

A rope stretched across a bridge. That was all Uganda needed to show that its border with the Democratic Republic of Congo was closed. – New York Times

Ugandan diplomat ​Olara Otunnu has joined the contest to become the next secretary-general of ‌the United Nations, the seventh contender to succeed Antonio Guterres when he steps down at the end of this year. – Reuters

Gabon’s main opposition leader, Alain Claude Bilie By Nze, has been in jail for more than three months after the ​government resurrected an 18-year-old private financial dispute as a pretext ‌to sideline him, his lawyers said in a statement. – Reuters

Guinea-Bissau’s military government has allowed opposition leader Domingos Simoes Pereira to leave prison and ​travel to Portugal for medical treatment, his ‌family told Reuters. – Reuters

Women and girls ​in Sudan’s al-Obeid face a dire choice between the threat of drone attacks ‌during the day and sexual violence at night when they go out to fetch water in the besieged city, U.N. Women said on Friday. – Reuters

Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has launched a ​new political party, formalising his ‌break with former Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and the ruling Pastef ​party that swept him to ​power in 2024. – Reuters

The number ‌of confirmed ​Ebola ​cases in ⁠the ​Democratic ​Republic of Congo ​has ​increased to ‌3,200, ⁠including 1,405 deaths, ​government ​data ⁠showed ​on ​Sunday. – Reuters

Tanzania’s main opposition party on Saturday said 51 of its officials were arrested and charged with terrorism, accusing the government of using law enforcement to intimidate critics. – Associated Press

Editorial: Without U.S. funding, over 1 million additional infections are possible in South Africa over the next 20 years, according to Roger Shapiro, a Harvard professor of immunology and infectious diseases. South Africa’s government projects 56,000 to 65,000 additional AIDS-related deaths in the country between 2025 and 2028 without U.S. help. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said this week that he has received assurances the administration will unfreeze an estimated $1.3 billion that Congress appropriated for PEPFAR which remains unspent. That promise only came after Cornyn threatened to block two of Trump’s ambassador nominees. Cornyn and other conservatives who have long advocated for the Bush-era program are leaving Congress in January. It will be up to a new generation of politicians to sustain this model of successful foreign aid. – Washington Post

Mohamed Adow writes: The electro-state model offers African countries speedier rollouts, lower long-term energy costs, and insulation from oil-price shocks. Of course, too heavy a reliance on Chinese financing, technology, and supply chains could create its own dependences, limiting local industrial development and leaving countries exposed to shifts in Beijing’s priorities or global commodity markets. The challenge for African governments is not to replace one form of dependence with another. It must use foreign investment to expand domestic capacity, building up local manufacturing and strengthening regional power networks. Sub-Saharan Africa is already the world’s leading market for pay-as-you-go-solar. If its transition is managed well, it could soon lead the clean energy transition in many more ways than that. – Foreign Affairs

Merit Habib Matta writes: Currently, a major barrier to recognition is Ethiopia’s fears of regional and international backlash. Although recognition of Somaliland remains the least violent solution to Ethiopia’s Red Sea dilemma, the current political climate will not permit this diplomatic step. Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Ethiopia signals Israeli leadership in encouraging formal recognition, yet Israeli support alone is not enough. Washington must take a firmer approach to the Horn of Africa to create the conditions for regional stability in a joint effort with the UAE and Israel. As the region becomes a theater for proxies, it is no longer feasible to ignore the need for Western shuttle diplomacy. – The National Interest

The Americas

Brazil has denied visas to two senior Trump administration officials who were planning to travel to the country, amid concerns that they sought to undermine confidence in the electronic-voting system before October’s presidential election. – Wall Street Journal

In Miami, Abelardo De La Espriella moved in the murky world of “white powder” lawyers — high-priced defense lawyers who help accused Latin American drug traffickers and others avoid harsh sentences by turning them into U.S. government informants or witnesses. – New York Times

Brazil has recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires after Argentine President Javier ​Milei used a trip to the country to ‌criticize its leaders and judiciary, two sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday. – Reuters

Venezuela’s foreign minister said on Friday the country has formally notified the United Nations of its “irrevocable” decision to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, which had ​been conducting a multi-year investigation into members of its armed forces and other officials. – Reuters

The Popular Force party, led by Peru’s President-elect Keiko Fujimori, won the Senate presidency on Sunday in an alliance with another conservative party, paving the way for the incoming government. – Associated Press

Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, was confirmed as the presidential candidate of his father’s Liberal Party on Saturday in a bid against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, even as his campaign faces many challenges. – Associated Press

Brazil’s Ministry of Indigenous Peoples said Friday it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Peru’s Ministry of Culture to strengthen cooperation in protecting Indigenous territories, particularly those of isolated peoples along the border between the two countries. – Associated Press

Editorial: This change is not magic or luck. Moody’s noted that Argentina’s “macroeconomic stabilization has advanced beyond the initial adjustment phase into a more durable improvement in credit fundamentals.” Booming exports have also improved the country’s prospects, partly due to an expansion of the energy sector. Milei made tacking inflation a top priority. When he took office, the monthly inflation rate hovered around 25 percent. Last month, it sat at 1.9 percent. Milei also tackled the country’s persistent fiscal deficits and reported a modest surplus just a year after his inauguration. – Washington Post

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: In recent years, China has poured billions into mining and infrastructure projects in Peru like the Port of Chancay. But there’s no such thing as a privately controlled Chinese company, and Beijing’s interest in the region is more than economic. It’s also a way to challenge U.S. hegemony in the hemisphere. China is known to throw its weight around in Lima to influence business and politics. The best way to counter Chinese influence would be greater U.S. investment. But American corporations are prohibited from paying bribes, and they want judicial security. Add solving those problems to Ms. Fujimori’s to-do list. – Wall Street Journal

North America

Aides ultimately dissuaded the president from that plan, but a day before the June 12 ribbon cutting, the event was abruptly called off. Carney said Canada agreed to delay the opening at the request of the U.S.—the latest twist in a decadelong effort to open the 1.5-mile, cable-stayed span that has emerged as a symbol of the evolving state of U.S.-Canada relations. The bridge opens to traffic Monday with U.S.-Canada tensions still running high over trade and the president’s 51st-state rhetoric more than 18 months into Trump’s second term. – Wall Street Journal

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel issued a sharp condemnation of Washington’s oil embargo and hardened sanctions in a speech on Sunday, calling the policy of U.S. President Donald ​Trump’s administration “political genocide.” – Reuters

El Salvador’s opposition parties have named Maytee Iraheta, a former lawmaker, as well as doctor and ​union leader Rafael Aguirre to run against President Nayib Bukele ‌in the next presidential election, scheduled for February. – Reuters

Former Honduran ​President Juan Orlando Hernandez returned to Honduras on Sunday, eight months after U.S. President Donald Trump pardoned ‌him while he was serving a 45-year U.S. prison sentence for drug and arms trafficking. – Reuters

Cuba held a traditional rally on Sunday to commemorate one of the revolution’s most important anniversaries but former President Raúl Castro was conspicuously absent. – Associated Press

The US has asked Mexico to mirror Washington’s tariff wall against Chinese steel and aluminum by imposing Section 232-style duties on imports from outside North America, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. – Bloomberg

United States

Two people were killed and at least five others were wounded Sunday in a shooting at a Seattle food festival, authorities said. The Seattle Police Department said shots were fired at the Seattle Center, home to the city’s famous Space Needle, where the Bite of Seattle food festival was being held. – Wall Street Journal

The suspect accused of stabbing two men in New York City was charged with attempted murder and hate crimes against both victims. Raul Morales, 51, was arrested Thursday after police said he stabbed a 57-year-old Asian man and a 50-year-old Jewish man in Manhattan’s Upper West Side neighborhood, not far from Central Park. The stabbings happened in the middle of the day a few blocks apart in separate incidents. The men were hospitalized and expected to survive. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is reviewing its process for vetting U.S. immigration officers after reports that a man allegedly involved in the fatal shooting of an immigrant in Maine had a history of violent outbursts, a senior White House official said Sunday. – Washington Post

U.N. human rights chief Volker Türk won a second term Friday despite opposition from the United States, Russia and Israel to keep him in one of the most controversial United Nations posts for four more years. – Associated Press

A U.S.-Russian space crew landed safely in the steppes of Kazakhstan on Sunday after an eight-month stint on the International Space Station. NASA astronaut Chris Williams and Russian crewmates Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev touched down in their Soyuz MS-28 that landed smoothly by parachute in a designated area southeast of Dzhezkazgan. – Associated Press

Editorial: Mr. Trump’s tariff defenders point to the buoyant stock market as evidence that his border taxes aren’t harmful. But last year’s tax bill—especially the business provisions like full investment expensing—has offset some of the damage from his tariffs. So has the AI investment boom. Imagine how strong the economy would be without the tariffs and their uncertainty for business. Americans remain unhappy about the economy, and higher prices are a big reason. They know that tariffs are adding to their pain even if they don’t see the cost as a line-item on a bill. Republicans could pay the price in November. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Mr. Mamdani isn’t responsible for Thursday’s stabbing. But he is responsible for promoting a culture of denigration that is all too easy for a fevered mind to hear and conclude that violence against Jews is acceptable. The mayor and his ideological groupies are playing with antisemitic fire. “When I was growing up,” Rabbi Yosie Levine said Friday, after the attack on a congregant, “the only time we saw security outside my synagogue or my Jewish day school was when the mayor came to speak. The police were there to protect him. Today, every time the mayor speaks, we need the police to protect us.” – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: But not the ICC. It now dumps Mr. Khan, once he can no longer be defended with a straight face, but otherwise carries on. The court’s allies keep threatening that it will prosecute President Trump after he leaves office. The U.S. never joined the unaccountable ICC, and neither did Israel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is right that the court has become a threat to U.S. sovereignty, and the Khan affair shows there’s no reason to give it deference. Sanction the court in its entirety. – Wall Street Journal

Jason Willick writes: America’s foreign policy is post-constitutional, with Senate-ratified treaties largely replaced by “executive agreements” and the legislature’s war power now vested primarily in the executive. That’s not necessarily a disaster in the near term. […] Markets — at least for Trump — also remain a powerful brake on presidential war-waging. And Congress still has the power of the purse. But wielding it to deny funds to the military in protest of a particular war would be awkward and maybe self-defeating when modern weapons take years to develop and powerful adversaries wish to do the U.S. harm. Perhaps the presidential conquest of the war power is good for America’s security. Whether it’s good for representative democracy is another question. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

The European Commission on Friday said it found TikTok had not adequately protected children’s privacy rights on its platform by allowing adults to view the accounts of minors. – Associated Press

Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook and Instagram have served thousands of ads for AI “nudify” apps in breach of the company’s policies, delivered by one of its few advertising partners in China, according to the nonprofit Tech Transparency Project. – Bloomberg

Botnets powered by residential proxy networks are proliferating, enabling cybercriminals of all types to evade detection by blending in with seemingly legitimate traffic, Lumen Technology’s Black Lotus Labs said in a report Friday. – Cyberscoop

Editorial: The irony is that Hugging Face first tried to fight the OpenAI intruder with American frontier models — and couldn’t. Those models’ safety filters couldn’t tell an incident responder from an attacker. So the company downloaded a Chinese open-weight model to help expel the intruder and patch the hole. That shows the solution to these new cyber risks is not less AI, but more. On Friday, both OpenAI and Hugging Face signed an industry letter — alongside Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft — calling not for restrictions but for wider access to capable models, arguing that defenders need the tools attackers already have. – Washington Post

Editorial: Beginning with Utah in 2023, several states have passed portable benefits laws that allow workers to own their benefits rather than receiving them through their employer. Federal legislation has been proposed to do the same. Previous technological shocks that some feared would cause mass unemployment did not do so, but they certainly changed the way that people work. The core statute of federal labor-relations law was passed in the 1930s and has already failed to keep up with past changes in the labor market. If more workers want to be their own boss, politicians would be foolish to stand in their way. – Washington Post

Judd Rosenblatt writes: The fastest way to end the world’s reliance on Chinese AI is to make Chinese models second-best. Give developers the best free models, with capability removal inside, and dangerous alternatives lose their audience. Chinese models regularly distill ours. If the world is going to copy American AI, let it copy the safe version. Only a few hundred people around the world work full-time on alignment research. Fund 10 times that many and let America set the global standard for aligned AI. Trustworthy American AI means dangerous capabilities are gone and stay gone under attack. America should build the strongest model that meets that standard and release it to the world. The race with China and the alignment problem have the same solution, and Mr. Trump can be the president who wins both. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The four American troops killed during renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran in recent weeks are no longer listed as part of the Iran war death toll in the Pentagon’s official casualty count but have been placed in a new, separate category. – Associated Press

The Department of Defense’s leasing of land to private companies for artificial intelligence server farms is drawing bipartisan scrutiny from lawmakers worried about the impact on military installations and surrounding communities. – Politico

The U.S. Navy is procuring a low-cost cruise missile to expand the fleet’s long-range precision strike capabilities and provide allies with affordable maritime strike munitions. – USNI News

The White House is pushing back against a congressional proposal to restrict buying warships and auxiliaries from foreign shipyards, according to a memo released this week by the Office of Management and Budget. – USNI News

Justin Hardy writes: The alternative costs more. A service commissioned before the governance fight is settled inherits the fragmentation as a birth defect, institutionalizing it right beside its brand-new flag and its birthday. The pundits and critics keep asking whether cyber requires its own service, but that is the incorrect first question. Facing new warfighting realities in 1947 that legacy institutions could not govern or prioritize, the United States began by redesigning the entire governance of the defense establishment. Only then did it establish a new force. The Department must first answer who owns cyberspace before it tries to answer the question of whether it should establish a Cyber Force. The uniforms can wait. – War on the Rocks