Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The Kremlin’s top diplomat on Sunday sought to blame global food shortages and an escalating hunger crisis on the United States and its European allies, looking to deflect responsibility for the consequences of the Russian-launched war in Ukraine and trying to rally support for Moscow during a tour across Africa. – Washington Post

If only they had more, and more sophisticated, weapons from the West, Ukrainian officials often tell their American counterparts and anyone else who will listen, they could make short work of Russian invaders. Last month’s arrival of the first of what are now a dozen U.S. multiple-launch precision rocket systems, known as HIMARS, has already been a game changer, soldiers here said this week. – Washington Post

Russian missiles hit the Black Sea port of Odessa on Saturday, Ukrainian officials said, imperiling a deal Moscow and Kyiv reached a day earlier to allow shipment of millions of tons of trapped grain and ease a global food crisis. – Washington Post

Russia and Ukraine agreed Friday to restart grain exports from Ukraine after a months-long blockade that fueled a growing global food crisis — but an attack on the port of Odessa on Saturday immediately cast doubt on Moscow’s commitment to the deal. – Washington Post

U.S. officials said Friday that they will send additional sophisticated artillery systems and ammunition to Ukraine, bolstering the country’s forces again as they carry out a coordinated campaign of strikes on Russian military targets. – Washington Post

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in the Democratic Republic of Congo as part of a four-day tour to try to shore up African support for the war in Ukraine. While in Egypt, the Kremlin’s top diplomat cast Russia as an ally of the continent and blamed Western sanctions on Russia for the turmoil in international food markets. Here’s the latest on the war and its ripple effects across the globe. – Washington Post

At the start of the year, Russia dispatched more than 2,000 troops to its longtime ally Kazakhstan to help put down violent antigovernment unrest. Six weeks later, when Russian troops stormed into Ukraine, Kazakhstan had an opportunity to repay the favor by supporting the invasion. – Wall Street Journal

After Russian troops pulled out of Yahidne at the end of March, Ukrainian investigators of suspected war crimes found a golden clue: a logbook with photos and personal details of members of one of the Russian military units that had occupied the town. – Wall Street Journal

Exactly five months into the war, artillery and missile strikes have become a daily part of life in much of Ukraine. Though ground combat has been limited in recent weeks, shells continued to pummel the area around the city of Bakhmut, as Russia pushes to take control of the eastern Donetsk region. And many areas are facing longer-range attacks as Ukrainian forces gear up for a counteroffensive against Russian positions in the south of the country. – Wall Street Journal

In a devastated village near Ukraine’s southern front line, the thud of incoming Russian artillery is a constant reminder of the hard battle ahead for Kyiv’s troops in a planned major counter-offensive. – Agence France-Presse

Russia’s top diplomat was in Cairo for talks Sunday with Egyptian officials as his country seeks to break the diplomatic isolation and sanctions by the West over its invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press

The White House announced Friday that the U.S. is sending an additional $270 million in security assistance to Ukraine, a package that will include additional medium range rocket systems and tactical drones. – Associated Press

Two Americans have died in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, the US State Department said Saturday, as fighting rages there after Russia focused its firepower on the area months after invading the country. – Agence France-Presse

After initially believing Russia’s moves against the Jewish Agency to be a relatively minor spat, Israeli officials now view them as the makings of a potentially major diplomatic rift, and the Jewish Agency is preparing accordingly, a senior official in the organization said Sunday. – Times of Israel

Since March, Ukraine has been pleading for Western fighter jets that could eventually replace the aging, worn-down MiG-29s and Su-27s that have been lost in combat. Now, it finally appears that the US Air Force may be willing to transfer some of its unused jets and begin training Ukrainian pilots. – Breaking Defense

Editorial: If Mr. Putin destroys the deal before it gets started — despite the advantages it offers his agricultural exports — he must take the blame. Meanwhile, Turkey and the United Nations must fulfill their roles as guarantors by holding him accountable, and the United States must send weapons Ukraine needs to protect its ports. – Washington Post

Editorial: The West is so far providing Ukraine with enough weapons not to lose but not enough to take back its territory from Russia. The fastest way to a settlement is to convince Russia that the costs of war will keep growing and that it can’t outlast the West. That means Russian military defeats on the ground. – Wall Street Journal

Asli Aydintasbas writes: But if this grain deal goes through, somehow this peculiar relationship will end up benefiting Ukraine, Ukrainian farmers and millions facing food shortages. It will help Erdogan and Putin, both domestically and in terms of their global image. And it will also demonstrate that Western influence in Ukraine and beyond still has very real limits. – Washington Post

Stephen Blank writes: Therefore, it makes greater sense to deploy the entire corps rather than just its headquarters. Since we cannot presume Russian rationality as what we understand it to be, we must make our conventional and nuclear deterrence so credible that nobody, including Putin, can fail to understand that we mean business. – The Hill

Salem Alketbi writes: It can now be assumed that Russia has completely misjudged the Atlantic response to Ukraine. Differences among NATO members appear to have contributed to Russian planners’ anticipation of a divided NATO and that its members would have difficulty agreeing on a unified position on the war in Ukraine. On balance, this is a gross misjudgment and misinterpretation of the facts. – Jerusalem Post

Mark Episkopos writes: Though Russia has been increasingly isolated from the West and certain Western-led institutions, Putin’s meetings in Tehran point to a different and altogether more unsettling phenomenon: despite ongoing attempts by European and U.S. policymakers to marshal a united global front against the Kremlin, a substantial part of the non-Western world has maintained neutrality or, as in the case of China and Iran, explicitly endorsed Russia’s framing of the conflict. – The National Interest

Turkey

When Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on Friday to unblock Ukrainian grain exports, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, played the role of benevolent statesman […]But privately, Mr. Erdogan has remained a source of substantial irritation for Biden administration officials. – New York Times

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday criticized Greece for allegedly violating a settlement that has governed relations between the rivals for nearly a century. – Associated Press

Turkish foreign ministry summoned the Swedish charges d’affaires in Ankara to convey its “strong reaction” to what it called “terrorist propaganda” during a Kurdish group’s protest in Stockholm, diplomatic sources said. – Reuters

Turkish media has reported additional details regarding the Iranian agents who targeted Israeli tourists in Istanbul. Turkish authorities arrested two additional Iranians earlier this week, Sabah reported Friday. – Arutz Sheva

Iraq

Iraq has filed a complaint to the U.N. Security Council, requesting an urgent session to discuss a deadly artillery attack this week that Baghdad blames on Turkey, the Foreign Ministry said Saturday. – Associated Press

Iraq said Saturday it was preparing to host a “public” meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two rivals seek to mend ties. Since April last year, Iraq has hosted five rounds of talks between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran, which support opposing sides in various conflicts around the region. – Agence France-Presse

Munqith Dagher writes: As the confrontation between Sadr and Maliki unfolds, it is likely to further weaken popular support for the transnational current of Islamist thought in Iraq, which already only a minority view overall. With regard to political leadership, the current power struggle will clearly impact which camp will hold sway over Iraqi decision-making. If Sadr is successful, transnational Shia Islamism will have been dealt a major blow, and the proponents of the Vilayet-e-Faqih model will have lost one of its main footholds in Iraq. – Washington Institute

Michael Knights and Hamdi Malik write: The trend here is a murky kind of claim process whereby an attack is foreshadowed with a poem or Quranic verse, publicized by Sabereen, and then attributed by Sabereen to a facade group. These incidents are also notable as only the second known association of AK with anti-Turkish attacks, and the first for LTM. This may indicate that additional real-world kinetic cells associated with the militias Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba are being drawn north to get in on the anti-Turkish-themed attacks. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit Greece on July 26 to meet Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek foreign ministry said on Friday, in his first visit to an EU country since the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. – Reuters

With U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East in the rearview mirror, what will be the next steps in the effort to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia? – Haaretz

The Biden administration was not surprised or concerned by Saudi Arabia’s assertion last week that its decision to open its airspace to all civilian planes was not a precursor to normalization with Israel, a senior US official told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Some in Israel speculate that once Mohammed bin Salman succeeds to the throne he will feel less reluctant than his father to move toward open relations with Israel. Whether he actually would do so, given the very real constraints that would confront any Saudi ruler, remains an open question. Moreover, Mohammed bin Salman has made many important enemies during his rise to power. While he likely will succeed his father, that is not a foregone conclusion. And a different ruler of the desert kingdom might prove as reluctant, or even more so, than King Salman to make peace with the Jewish state. – The Hill

Avi Perry writes: They missed the fact that the contributor to global warming is energy consumption, regardless of where the energy is sourced from. It matters not whether the oil originates in Texas, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, or Russia, it only counts toward global warming if it is consumed anywhere on the planet, so even if the US reduces its consumption of fossil fuels while China increases its consumption, it becomes a zero-sum game, and the objective of halting the global warming trend loses steam. Logical thinking is a trait missing in this administration. My only hope is that things will start changing, coming November. – Arutz Sheva

Korean Peninsula

The case triggered outrage back then, because it was the first time South Korea rejected a North Korean request to defect and forced someone back across the border unwillingly. In releasing new material, the conservative government of President Yoon Suk-yeol has revived the issue, accusing his predecessor’s government of violating human rights. – New York Times 

South Korea plans to lift its decadeslong ban on public access to North Korean television, newspapers and other publications as part of its efforts to promote mutual understanding between the rivals, officials said Friday, despite animosities over the North’s recent missile tests. – Associated Press

North Korea on Saturday condemned remarks by a senior White House official about Pyongyang’s cyberattack capabilities and said it would continue to stand against what it called U.S. aggression towards it. – Reuters

Donald Kirk writes: Yoon, however, was elected president in March by a narrow margin — so narrow that his foes, who command a majority in the National Assembly, are planning their resurgence. If they succeed, some fear they will again try to compromise with the North, yielding in disputes involving the lives of Koreans and the rights of defectors. It is necessary for the Yoon government to fortify the South against such tactics. The case of the two North Korean fishermen is about much more than their awful fate. It’s also about a regime that was willing to bow before North Korea, betraying not only those two men but all South Koreans in their struggle against the North Korean dictatorship. – The Hill

Seung-Whan Choi writes: Due to his misconduct, Yoon has too quickly become a liability to Washington. Biden should have a serious talk with Yoon and nudge him into not acting like a president who won a landslide victory. If Yoon refuses to listen, Biden must consider an alternate plan of how to minimize America’s security risks on the Korean Peninsula before the Korean government is toppled by its people or soldiers. Otherwise, South Korea will be out of control. – The National Interest

South Asia

Just over three months ago, Imran Khan, the charismatic Pakistani prime minister, was abruptly forced to step down. As he struggled to prop up the collapsing economy and cling to power, risking a constitutional crisis, his rivals formed a hodgepodge coalition in parliament and allegedly lured a handful of Khan loyalists to defect. Shortly after midnight on April 10, he was gone in a 30-minute vote. – Washington Post

Just over three months ago, Imran Khan, the charismatic Pakistani prime minister, was abruptly forced to step down. As he struggled to prop up the collapsing economy and cling to power, risking a constitutional crisis, his rivals formed a hodgepodge coalition in parliament and allegedly lured a handful of Khan loyalists to defect. Shortly after midnight on April 10, he was gone in a 30-minute vote. – Washington Post

A human rights group said Sunday it had filed a criminal complaint with Singapore’s attorney general to seek the arrest of Sri Lanka’s former president for alleged war crimes during his country’s civil war. – Associated Press

Sri Lanka’s besieged presidential office will reopen on Monday (Jul 25), police said, days after anti-government demonstrators were flushed out in a military crackdown that triggered international condemnation. – Agence France-Presse

Meenakshi Ganguly writes: here is little reason to believe the next administration — led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was backed by the now-deposed Rajapaksa family — will be better in this regard, considering Wickremesinghe’s prompt crackdown on the protesters. It’s therefore critical for foreign governments to pick up the slack where possible. Rajapaksa’s departure from Sri Lanka might have opened new possibilities for justice. – Washington Post

Europe

The German government agreed on Friday to take an approximately 30 percent stake in Uniper, one of the country’s largest suppliers of natural gas that was on the brink of financial ruin, to keep energy supplies flowing and fend off potential chaos in Europe’s energy market. – New York Times

Mr. Draghi’s downfall already amounts to the toppling of the establishment that populist forces across Europe dream of. It has now raised concerns, far transcending Italy, of just how much resilience the movements retain on the continent, and of what damage an Italian government more sympathetic to Russia and less committed to the European Union could do to the cohesion of the West as it faces perhaps its greatest combination of security and economic challenges since the Cold War. – New York Times

Officials at the English Channel port of Dover on Sunday said operations had returned to normal, after two days of lengthy delays blamed on post-Brexit border checks. Frustrated holidaymakers were forced to wait for hours to reach the port and board ferries to France on Friday and Saturday, at the start of the busy summer getaway. The UK government blamed France for failing to adequately staff their border posts at the port, prompting a swift denial from Paris. – Agence France-Presse

Rishi Sunak on Sunday promised to get tough on China if he becomes Britain’s next prime minister, calling the Asian superpower the “number one threat” to domestic and global security. – Agence France-Presse

European governments are attempting to water down Brussels’ plans to push the bloc into cutting gas demand to better weather a shortage of Russian supplies this winter. – Financial Times

The EU’s trade chief has vowed to accelerate efforts to boost the union’s network of trade deals, as Brussels responded to member state calls to strengthen global supply chains, wean itself off Russia and deepen links with key allies. – Financial Times

The European Commission on Friday launched four new legal proceedings against Britain over London’s failure to implement Brexit divorce terms to govern trade with Northern Ireland. – Agence France-Presse

Moldova’s prime minister on Sunday said she is “very worried” about Russia invading her country next, as it makes advances in Ukraine’s east and south, near the Moldova-Ukraine border. – The Hill

The European Union’s latest sanctions on Russia, formally adopted on 21 July, are probably the weakest package so far from Brussels. To understand why, look no further than the bloc’s other activities in recent weeks to prepare for what could be a long, cold winter. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has called for a peace settlement in Ukraine and blamed the West’s delivery of long-range artillery weapons to the  war-torn country for driving Russia’s quest to annex additional Ukrainian territory. – New York Sun

The United States will continue to “support Ukraine for as long as it takes,” expediting military aid in the country’s battle against invading Russian military forces, says the U.S. ambassador to Kyiv. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Editorial: The new report hints at the courage of the air traffic controller who made the smartphone recording and was interviewed by investigators in June. The report also throws into high relief the dangers of a dictator such as Mr. Lukashenko, who respects no rules but his own, using trickery and lies to divert a civilian plane in flight to nab a dissident. – Washington Post

Maria Tadeo writes: With political turbulence, comes market jitters, some of which are already playing out on the Italian bond market — and investors are right to be concerned about the implications for the country’s long-term debt management. But they shouldn’t fret about the prospects of Italexit creeping back. – Bloomberg

Justin Logan writes: For those reasons, advocates of NATO as a permanent alliance should probably start thinking about Plan B, not advertising the alliance as a cure-all for problems including climate change, piracy, and disinformation. Europe is rich and strong enough to defend itself. But the Europeans won’t do so unless the United States stops doing it for them. – Foreign Policy

The Americas

Two terrorist attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Buenos Aires in the 1990s that killed scores of people were carried out by a secret Hezbollah unit whose operatives, contrary to widespread claims, were not abetted knowingly by Argentine citizens or aided by Iran on the ground, according to an investigation by the Mossad, Israel’s secret service. – New York Times

The U.S. has blacklisted former Paraguayan President Horacio Cartes for his role in “significant corruption,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday, as Washington singled out the former powerful leader of the landlocked South American country. – Wall Street Journal

Colombian President-elect Gustavo Petro on Friday met with representatives of U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration in Bogota, the Colombian capital, where they discussed topics including drug trafficking, the environment and economic development. – Reuters

When heads of state visit the U.S., the top item on their itinerary is usually a White House visit. For Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban next month, it will be addressing a conference of conservative activists in Dallas. – Associated Press

Some of the world’s top national security officials — from spy chiefs to ambassadors to defense ministers — gathered here this week to offer prognoses and prescriptions for an array of existing and potential global challenges. – Politico

Edward Wong writes: Ultimately the biggest contrast between the presidents, and perhaps the aspect most closely watched by America’s allies and adversaries, lies in their views on democracy. Mr. Trump complimented autocrats and broke with democratic traditions well before the insurrection in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, that congressional investigators argue he organized. Mr. Biden has placed promotion of democracy at the ideological center of his foreign policy, and in December he welcomed officials from more than 100 countries to a “summit for democracy.” – New York Times

Defense

The Pentagon is pushing for the passage of legislation aimed at boosting the US’s domestic semiconductor industry, telling lawmakers the components, which go into everything from vacuum cleaners to fighter jets, are needed for the war in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

The Army’s network research team and science and technology community just wrapped up nine weeks of experiments, involving communications tech that could be used on the service’s high-profile next-gen helicopters and will help inform its ongoing Joint All Domain Command and Control efforts. – Breaking Defense

Ian Williams and Masao Dahlgren write: The feasibility of early intercept concepts is among the oldest debates within the strategic defense community. But people’s perceptions of an issue can stagnate, laden with old baggage and citations. Technological capability, in the meantime, has advanced. As such, there are assumptions to reexamine and possible solutions in sight. – Defense News