Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The announcement of a U.S. agreement with Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program has raised Israeli concerns that it could lead to a regional arms race and underscored how the U.S. is charting its own path in the region, independent of Israel. – New York Times

Lebanon and Israel are scheduled to hold their next round of ​U.S.-brokered talks on August 4 in Italy, a Lebanese official told Reuters on Wednesday, as the two ‌countries begin implementing a plan for Israeli withdrawals and Lebanese army deployments in southern Lebanon. – Reuters

The new director of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, Roman Gofman, visited Washington two weeks ago for talks about the war in Iran and the Iranian nuclear program, according to two sources with knowledge. – Axios

Nauru, a Pacific island nation in the North Pacific, said on Wednesday that it has decided to open an embassy in Jerusalem, becoming the 10th country to do so. – Jerusalem Post

Two suspects were arrested on Tuesday after allegedly planning a terror attack in Jerusalem, the police announced on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

The government informed the High Court of Justice on Wednesday that it will not be able to complete its legislation to establish a political probe investigating government failings during Hamas’s October 7 massacre in 2023, citing “scheduling constraints.” – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s defense establishment is considering purchasing a maritime patrol and multirole aircraft designed primarily to detect submarines, according to an IDF source. – Jerusalem Post

The prosecution filed a precedent-setting request on Wednesday to revoke the Israeli citizenship of two security prisoners convicted of plotting to help Hamas disable Cellcom’s communications network during a future war or military operation. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas terrorists have been working to systematically tighten their ties with clan and tribal leaders in the Gaza Strip to strengthen their position before the slated technocratic administration takes control of the area, KAN Reshet Bet reported on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF detained several Israeli settlers on Wednesday for attempting to cross into Syrian territory, the military said. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s aid delegation to earthquake-stricken Venezuela has completed its mission and returned to Israel after around three weeks operating in the South American country, the Foreign Ministry announced on Wednesday. – Times of Israel

Russia and Ukraine

From the outside, this was shaping up as a strong year for wartime Ukraine. Ukrainian drones are burning Russia’s refineries and starving occupied Crimea of fuel. Moscow’s summer offensive has stalled on most parts of the front, and Ukraine is taking back territory. In Washington, a president who spent last year berating Kyiv has warmed to it again. – Washington Post

Russia has introduced a temporary ban on vessel movements in ​and out of the port of Novorossiysk between ‌midnight and 5 a.m. because of Ukrainian drone attacks, three grain industry sources said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russia said on Wednesday it had struck the Ukrainian ​cities of Odesa and Chornomorsk, hitting port ‌infrastructure and vessels that it said were supporting the Ukrainian military. Russia’s defence ministry said the latest strikes had targeted a ​dry-cargo ship unloading at Chornomorsk port, as well ​as a military cargo store and fuel ⁠and lubricant storage tanks. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke on Wednesday about the prospects for pursuing ​more active diplomacy and moving towards an accord to end the more than ‌four-year-old war with Russia. – Reuters

The new commander-in-chief of ​Ukraine’s armed forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, said on Wednesday he had been tasked with stepping up counteroffensive actions and launching ‌new operations inside Russia. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday in the Philippines for talks where he was expected to renew the prospect of the U.S. trying to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. – Associated Press

Russian regions are cautiously reporting an easing of a gasoline crisis after Ukraine’s military shifted the focus of its attacks from major oil refineries to ships. – Bloomberg

Russia is no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine as part of any deal to end the war and plans to retain them as buffer zones, according to people close to the Kremlin. – Bloomberg

A nuclear project linked to Russian state-owned company Rosatom has been given the go-ahead by state authorities in northwest Germany, under strict conditions to mitigate risks posed by Russian involvement. – Politico

Robert Brüll writes: Used across a swarm of drones, such a system could disguise the direction, size and makeup of an attack, split the attention of those looking to prevent it, and improve the odds that the swarm, or much of it, will reach the intended target. The next step is to make the aircraft countermeasure practical at drone scale. New, compact chaff systems could protect long-range drones in a way that was once only possible for manned aircraft. My company is among those developing this technology. The history of warfare is one of innovation. Armies stopped relying on knights in armor when they came up against gunpowder weapons. Likewise, Ukraine’s powerful long-range drones will meet increasingly sophisticated networks of air defenses. To prepare, the offense needs to invest in a new defense: improving chaff. – Wall Street Journal

Gian Gentile and Andrew Radin write: But Ukraine could very well break Russia’s will to continue fighting. History offers an example of that, too. In 1918, the allied armies of France, Great Britain and the recently arrived Americans had defeated the German Spring Offensive on the Western Front. After four years of bloody attritional warfare, the German Army collapsed on the field of battle, leading to the November armistice and peace treaty that ended World War I. Whether the Russian Army faces a similar fate will depend on Ukraine’s maintenance of its effective strategy of attrition and continuing if not increasing its long-range strikes into Russia, and the continued support of its partner nations. – The Hill

Yemen

The Iranian-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen claimed on Wednesday that it had targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles and drones in the Red Sea. It would be the first such attack since the group announced a blockade aimed at Saudi Arabia. – New York Times

Five tankers changed course in the Red Sea on Wednesday, ​with two signalling the Suez Canal as their new destination after Yemen’s Houthi militia warned ships to avoid sailing to Saudi Arabian ports, ship-tracking data showed. – Reuters

The United States and Pakistan on Wednesday condemned Yemen’s Houthi rebels for threatening commercial shipping in the Red Sea after the group announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia earlier this week. – Associated Press

James Stavridis writes: If these measures prove ineffective, it may be necessary for the US to resume strikes on land targets in Yemen, as it did before a tenuous truce was reached in May 2025. Some low-risk but high-payoff targets would be the Houthis’ logistical links with Iran; drone maintenance and production facilities; ballistic-missile storage areas; and command-and-control nodes. A Houthi closure of the Bab el-Mandeb wouldn’t just affect global shipping — it would be a way for Iran to broaden the war against the US beyond the Persian Gulf. The best way to keep that from happening is to learn from the past and plan for it now. – Bloomberg

Michael Lucchese writes: From there, it should take swift and decisive action to wipe out those at the top of the organization, especially its leader, Abdul-Malik al Houthi. Negotiating a settlement and ceding control of Yemen to these extremists is no longer an option. We must find more permanent solutions. Trump deserves immense credit for all he has done thus far to roll back Iran’s regional empire of evil. But letting the Islamic Republic and proxies such as the Houthis fester would be a geopolitical mistake of the worst order. Finally bringing to the Middle East could be Trump’s greatest legacy — but only if he finishes the job. – Washington Examiner

Middle East & North Africa

A German government spokesperson said on Wednesday that Berlin was “highly irritated” ​by the renewed detention of Deutsche Welle correspondent ‌Alican Uludag in Turkey. – Reuters

Egypt’s parliament approved four oil and gas exploration and development agreements on ​Wednesday, including a North Sinai project involving Franco-British ‌independent producer Perenco. Egypt is looking to bolster domestic energy production that has struggled to keep pace with growing demand ​while regional tensions tighten global LNG markets. – Reuters

A $30 billion project to provide Germany with renewable energy from Morocco via what would be the world’s ‌longest intercontinental undersea power link is being held up by disagreements over structure and guarantees, four sources said. – Reuters

Morocco’s foreign ministry said it was concerned ​by the death of a ‌national during a police arrest in Bologna in Italy and urged ​a “thorough investigation”. – Reuters

Journalism continues to be harshly suppressed in Syria, with journalists still being disappeared and killed despite some improvements under the transitional government following the fall of the Assad regime, according to a report published last week by the Syrian Center for Media and Freedom of Expression. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Rubin writes: He might demand the restoration of all Greek Orthodox property, including the Halki Seminary and the Hagia Sophia. Trump should demand not only that Erdogan recognize the Armenian and Pontic Greek genocides but also lay a wreath at the Armenian genocide memorial in Yerevan, Armenia. Supporters of the F-35 deal point out it is not just about a jet. It is about cementing a relationship that can last decades. They are right. But while the relationship should last decades, Erdogan has far less time. If Erdogan wants the jet, Trump should demonstrate the art of the deal. He may just strengthen regional security in the process. – Washington Examiner

China

China began two days of ​live-fire drills from Thursday in some ‌parts of the Taiwan Strait near the shores of its southeastern province of ​Fujian. The news comes a day ​after talks between U.S. Secretary of State ⁠Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister ​Wang Yi on a range of ​issues, including democratically-governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. – Reuters

China said on Thursday it tracked and drove away two Philippine vessels it ​accused of having “intruded into” waters near the disputed ‌Scarborough Shoal despite warnings, the week’s second incident in the South China Sea to involve both nations. – Reuters

China’s fourth-ranking leader, Wang Huning, called on Tibet ​to safeguard social stability, enforce a new ethnic unity law and bring Tibetan Buddhism into closer alignment ‌with Communist Party priorities during a visit to the region this week. – Reuters

India pressed China for better market access, predictable supply chains and steps to narrow the widening trade imbalance, as the two countries look to stabilize ties after years of border tensions. – Bloomberg

The Chinese government is insisting on new conditions to the preliminary agreement that President Donald Trump reached with China’s leader Xi Jinping to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft — putting the high-profile deal at risk, according to three people familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking on negotiations. – Politico

Gordon G. Chang writes: The precipitous decline in property outside the four Tier 1 cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen — has created a negative wealth effect, depressing consumption. Considering that some 70 percent of the household wealth of the Chinese people is represented by property, that effect is substantial. Chinese analysts constantly talk about the country raising consumption’s share of the economy, but that is not possible as long as Xi is in charge. No society can maintain such an unbalanced economy for long. China, behind strong currency walls, can manage longer than free societies in defying the laws of economics, but eventually all economies rebalance. The issues now are how severe that adjustment will be and how long it will take. – The Hill

Anushka Saxena writes: The EDD and the PLA oversee weapons quality, and the same SOEs also handle export variants. Because contract awards seem to be secured through networks and kickbacks rather than competitive trials, and compromised evaluators may undertake sign-offs, substandard components can go undetected. Any metallurgical failures, radar discrepancies, and engine quality concerns dogging exports to the rest of the world are not unrelated to this. Beijing is unlikely to emerge as the predominant defense partner for any of its other large clients in the medium term. It may not be because Chinese weaponry is uniformly poor, but because systemic strains from supply chain vagaries, hits to internal credibility, and diversification pressures mic. The next five years will speak to whether the validation strategy yields better export generation or muddies the waters further. – The National Interest

Asia

Inside a hushed hall in Tokyo on a recent afternoon, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan stood before a giant portrait of her mentor, Shinzo Abe, the slain Japanese leader, and bowed. It had been four years since Mr. Abe, a giant in Japanese politics and the country’s longest-serving prime minister, was shot and killed while giving a speech outside a train station. – New York Times

Top diplomats from Asia, Europe and North America gathered on Thursday for the security-focused ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, ​where ministers were expected to issue calls for a peaceful settlement after renewed and intensifying hostilities in the Middle ‌East. – Reuters

New Zealand and Papua New Guinea signed a defence cooperation agreement late on Wednesday, as Wellington seeks to ​deepen security ties in the Pacific amid growing strategic ‌competition and China’s expanding influence. – Reuters

Australia’s foreign minister said ​on Wednesday that Asian countries face a choice ‌in how they respond to instances of aggressive conduct in the South China Sea that were of concern to Canberra. – Reuters

Human Rights Watch on Wednesday called on Vietnam to release a former business executive and four other people over their roles in ​the publication and promotion of a book about Ho Chi Minh ‌that allegedly contained anti-state content. – Reuters

Indonesian President Prabowo ‌Subianto has appointed long-time party loyalist and deputy agriculture minister Sudaryono as the new head of the agency overseeing his flagship free meals programme after its former chief resigned suddenly on Wednesday. – Reuters

Thailand has completed the first section of a permanent border ​fence along parts of its frontier with Cambodia, ‌the Thai military said on Wednesday, as tensions persist between the two Southeast Asian neighbours following two rounds of fighting last year. – Reuters

Thai authorities said Thursday they are searching for the people responsible for an attack in the country’s troubled deep south region that killed five soldiers and injured several civilians. – Associated Press

Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is bolstering his leadership team, elevating several younger ministers in a cabinet reshuffle following recent resignations from his bench. – Bloomberg

Riho Aizawa writes: To respond effectively to intensified short-of-war military pressure, Japanese and U.S. strategists should do three things. […] Third, they should comprehensively examine response approaches. If a gap exists between desirable and feasible options, they should identify the constraints and consider alternative measures to avoid leaving that gap unaddressed. JMOD has also identified “enhancing the effectiveness of the U.S.-Japan alliance from a strategic perspective” as one of the issues requiring further consideration, alongside the need to further strengthen deterrence and response capabilities in light of the strengthening of China-Russia and Russia-North Korea strategic coordination. A strategic dialogue on the revitalization of the U.S.-Japan alliance for the next era of regional security is once again taking shape. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Howard Wang and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga write: Making these decisions requires substantial analysis tailored to the problem. To that end, more U.S. analysts should incorporate cognitive effects into their wargames, analyses, and considerations for future policy. U.S. policymakers learning from those games should refuse to assume will to fight is a static input and insist on adjudicating cognitive effects on military, civilian, and political leadership throughout the games. More U.S. analyses should incorporate actors such as Taiwan’s All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency, and effects such as the indicators of societal resilience produced at National Taiwan University. These organizations and their work should be a staple of wargames, not a special focus. Finally, U.S. defense officials should consider how this form of warfare could play out beyond Taipei. Taiwan is at greater risk, but it is not the only target. – War on the Rocks

Africa

The Trump administration is weighing military action in the West African country of Mali to target an al-Qaeda-affiliated group known as JNIM, said current and former U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations. – Washington Post

President Donald Trump praised Nigerian President Bola Tinubu for his actions against ​violence, according to a letter released by ‌Nigeria’s presidency on Wednesday, in contrast to the U.S. leader’s threats late last year over treatment of that ​country’s Christians. – Reuters

Cameroon’s ruling party called a rare meeting of senior leaders on Wednesday as criticism mounted over the continued absence of President Paul ​Biya, 93, who has spent the last 45 days abroad. – Reuters

Two Ghanaian nationals have petitioned the International Criminal Court to open a preliminary investigation into attacks against ​foreign nationals in South Africa, which they said could constitute crimes against humanity. – Reuters

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul reaffirmed Berlin’s commitment on Wednesday to supporting Nigeria on security as it ​battles militant groups, and said violence in the Sahel ‌threatened all coastal states in the region. – Reuters

Democratic ‌Republic of Congo will begin enforcing a long-delayed requirement for mining companies to offer local ownership stakes from July 31, the mines ministry said, despite concerns from some of the world’s biggest copper and ​cobalt miners over its impact on the sector. – Reuters

More than 1,000 people have died in the Ebola outbreak in Congo, according to Africa’s top health body, a grim toll in the fastest Ebola outbreak in history, as conflict, community resistance and an uneven response fuel its spread. – Associated Press

Surging global demand for critical minerals should be “a once-in-a-lifetime chance” for resource-rich countries in Africa and elsewhere to harness wealth and improve life for millions — but it has too easily triggered violence and poverty, the head of the World Trade Organization said Wednesday. – Associated Press

Ayantola Alayande, Catherine Nzuki, and Aaron Stanley write: South Africa also already has a pillar of its AI policy on AI for inclusive growth and job creation, which can be strengthened through data-driven engagement with the country’s largest informal sectors, such as retail and transportation. Made as concrete, measurable commitments, those choices would build the momentum for ongoing enhancement and engagement with the citizens these sectors sustain. Ultimately, for most African economies, a truly meaningful AI pathway must target traders, farmers, drivers, artisans, and others who are largely excluded from the current AI use trajectory. Across Africa, informality is the test of whether AI creates broad-based work that achieves economic development goals and lives up to its promises or simply deepens an existing divide. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

North America

Scattered across South Florida and tucked inside bank vaults, safes and family desk drawers are the yellowing deeds to sugar mills, oil refineries and family homes seized by Cuba’s Communist government more than six decades ago […] Now they suddenly have potential monetary value, as the Trump administration intensifies its squeeze on Cuba’s government. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Mark Carney swept to power promising an “elbows out” stance against President Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric, vowing he would never accept a bad trade deal. – Wall Street Journal

Canada is calling for a de-escalation and a permanent ceasefire in the Middle East, with the situation “quite grave”, its foreign minister Anita Anand said on Wednesday ​on the sidelines of an ASEAN meeting. – Reuters

Mexican journalist Francisco Leyva was found dead on Wednesday in the southern state of Oaxaca, the state’s ​Attorney General’s Office said, marking at least the fourth ‌killing of a journalist in the country since June. – Reuters

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday he hoped to strike some interim trade deals with Mexico ‌and Canada this year while tackling thornier changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2027, his strongest signal yet that the pact will not be renewed this year. – Reuters

Former Honduran President ​Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was freed from a 45-year sentence over cocaine trafficking in the United States by U.S. ‌President Donald Trump, said on Wednesday he will seek to have local charges against him dismissed when he returns to Honduras on Sunday. – Reuters

The United Nations human rights chief on Wednesday condemned what he ​described as a further deterioration of civil ‌and political rights in Nicaragua, warning that proposed measures to bar political opponents from elections would deepen an ​already severe crackdown on dissent. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

ChatGPT maker OpenAI says it is still investigating the “unprecedented cyber incident” that led its artificial intelligence systems to break out of a testing environment and hack into another AI company. – Associated Press

Federal agencies have committed more than $5 billion to an Energy Department-led effort to use artificial intelligence to accelerate scientific research, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios announced Wednesday. – Politico

A top White House technology official is accusing a Chinese company of distilling Anthropic’s models to create their own AI product. – Cyberscoop

North Korean hackers successfully targeted South Korean collaborative-work software vendors before breaching the suppliers’ customers, threat researchers have found. – The Record

The federal government has expanded a warning that it issued in April about attacks on internet-facing operational technology (OT) by hackers affiliated with the Iranian regime. – The Record

James Rogan writes: That willingness to tolerate failure has produced companies such as Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and SpaceX, firms that have transformed entire industries while creating enormous wealth. China excels at manufacturing and infrastructure development. But sustained technological leadership depends on allocating capital efficiently to the next generation of innovators. The competition between the U.S. and China is ultimately a contest of productivity and innovation. America’s deep, transparent, and trusted capital markets remain one of its most durable structural advantages. They give the U.S. the financial capacity to fund successive waves of technological innovation on a scale that China has yet to match. – Washington Examiner

Helen Raleigh writes: The United States must respond with far stronger measures: rigorous scrutiny of Chinese AI adoption, sustained investment in secure domestic alternatives, and export controls that actually work. Policymakers and the public alike should recognize that self-defeating steps such as moratoriums only hand China a competitive advantage by slowing American innovation while Beijing races ahead. Complacency is not an option. In the AI era, the choice before us is stark: Either we maintain technological leadership and defend an open, free digital future — or we cede the 21st century to digital authoritarianism. – Washington Examiner