Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel allows UN to bring in more equipment amid Gaza lawlessness Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, to meet in China in July Purdue University's Louis René Beres: Israel’s chief mission is to protect its citizens from a nuclear Iran Iran’s reformist President-elect sounds hawkish note on West Harvard Kennedy School’s Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar: Why Iran’s new President won’t change his country Ukraine battles to contain Russian advances across the front The Eastern Border’s Kristaps Andrejsons: Russians expect nothing from Putin’s war Syria holds parliamentary vote with no surprises expected WSJ Editorial: Meanwhile, over in the Red Sea Taiwan’s blunt-talking leader faces China’s backlash EU imposes sanctions on five Israeli individuals and three entities Rest of world watches U.S. turmoil with growing alarmIn The News
Israel
Israel and Egypt have privately discussed a possible withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza’s border with Egypt, according to two Israeli officials and a senior Western diplomat, a shift that could remove one of the main obstacles to a cease-fire deal with Hamas. – New York Times
The United Nations said on Monday that it will start bringing in more armored vehicles and personal protection equipment for its humanitarian aid operations in the Gaza Strip after receiving approval from Israeli authorities. – Reuters
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior economic officials held their first high level meeting on the 2025 state budget on Monday that they seek to be approved by parliament by the end of 2024. – Reuters
Israel struck the southern and central Gaza Strip on Monday to put more pressure on Hamas, following a weekend strike targeting the militant group’s leadership, which killed scores of Palestinians who had sought shelter in a makeshift camp. – Reuters
Palestinian factions, including rivals Hamas and Fatah, will hold unity talks in China in July, two senior Hamas and Fatah officials told Reuters on Monday, as they try to resolve deep divisions. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump as a preview of a potential attack on himself, a complaint that is fueling a political uproar in Israel. – Washington Examiner
The US Treasury Department announced on Monday evening that it is removing Aviad Shlomo Sarid, a resident of Revava in Samaria, from the list of sanctions that were mistakenly imposed on him. – Arutz Sheva
With the presidential election just four months away, the prospect of securing a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the end of President Joe Biden’s first term is narrowing. – Jewish Insider
As soon as the war with Hamas began on October 7, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered that the army’s recording system be turned off in the command center at army headquarters, which is where all security cabinet meetings and other defense-related meetings were being held in those days. The army complied with this order. – Haaretz
Saturday’s attempt to kill senior Hamas official Mohammed Deif has hurt progress in the talks on a hostage deal, Israeli sources confirmed on Monday. – Haaretz
Editorial: The IDF is doing an admirable job in all it is attempting to do in Gaza – from locating and rescuing hostages to tracking down Hamas leaders and dismantling the terror state – but perhaps in the future, the IDF chiefs should wait and see before commenting on the possible death of one of Israel’s greatest enemies. – Jerusalem Post
Yevgen Kornichuk writes: I call upon the world to wake up – the evil network that includes Russia, Iran, Hamas, and North Korea is a clear and present danger that we cannot afford to ignore. Ukraine stands by Israel and together with all nations committed to peace and security. Together, we must face this threat with the full force of our collective resolve. Let us not be caught in the web of evil intentions. We must break free and guarantee a more stable and safer world for everyone. – Jerusalem Post
Louis Rene Beres writes: For the moment, the only reasonable focus in Jerusalem should be on Iranian capabilities and intentions. But this indispensable focus ought to include variously coinciding intersections with Hezbollah objectives and operations. In the final analysis, the Hezbollah threat to Israel is not “just” a terror threat or strategic threat, but a process that could accelerate conditions leading to eventual nuclear war with Iran. – The Algemeiner
Iran
Mr. Pezeshkian has sought to come across not as a disrupter but as a more pragmatic fixer, saying in debates he would obey Mr. Khamenei and pursue the supreme leader’s overall policies. – New York Times
A Chevron chartered oil tanker seized by Iran more than a year ago has dropped anchor near the United Arab Emirates port of Khor Fakkan, ship tracking data showed on Monday. – Reuters
The embassy of Azerbaijan in Tehran resumed its work Monday after more than a year of negotiations between the two countries to ease tensions, media reports said. – Associated Press
Iran’s president-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, said his foreign policy will prioritize strengthening ties with Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia while taking a hawkish stance on the US and Europe. – Bloomberg
Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar writes: They carry little weight within his institutions, including the IRGC. They do not have support from most of Iran’s citizens. Previously, reformists viewed elections as a way to empower moderate presidents to balance the supreme leader. But as Pezeshkian’s statements show, they have accepted that Khamenei’s authority really is absolute. Now, they are simply looking to do the best they can within the constraints he has given. – Foreign Affairs
Russia & Ukraine
Russian forces over the weekend pushed into Urozhaine, a southern village won back by Ukraine last summer, the latest in a series of slow but steady advances that are reversing hard-won Ukrainian victories. – New York Times
A Moscow court on Monday sentenced in absentia Masha Gessen, the Russian-born American journalist, author and New York Times staff member, to eight years in prison over comments they made about atrocities that the Russian military has been accused of committing in Ukraine. – New York Times
A Ukraine drone attack sparked a fire at a factory producing electrical devices and components in the town of Korenevo in Russia’s Kursk region, the interim governor of the region bordering Ukraine said on Tuesday. – Reuters
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday he aimed to have a plan ready in November to enable Kyiv to hold a second international summit on his vision of peace in Ukraine, and he said representatives of Russia should attend. – Reuters
The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had not contacted Donald Trump after the assassination attempt on the Republican U.S. presidential candidate over the weekend and had no plans to do so. – Reuters
An unidentified individual threw a grenade at a military draft office in the western Ukrainian town of Busk overnight, causing an explosion but not hurting anyone, police said on Monday. – Reuters
Ukraine needs 25 Patriot air defense systems to fully defend its airspace and protect the entire country from Russian missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday, adding that he also wants Western partners to send more F-16 warplanes than those already pledged. – Associated Press
An ecosystem of laboratories in hundreds of secret workshops is leveraging innovation to create a robot army that Ukraine hopes will kill Russian troops and save its own wounded soldiers and civilians. – Associated Press
A court in Moscow on Monday ordered house arrest for a general in custody on fraud charges, in a ruling that represents an about-face from just weeks ago, when the same court refused to release the general from jail. – Associated Press
New footage appears to show a Ukrainian fighter firing a man-portable air defense system, also known as MANPADS, at a Russian cruise missile to intercept the incoming attack. – Newsweek
John Shaw writes: The U.S. can’t allow Russia’s indiscriminate threat to the world’s space systems on which modern human society depends. We need to use the full range of our national and allied power—diplomatic, economic and military—to ensure Russia’s nuclear threat doesn’t become a sword of Damocles over the planet. Vladimir Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” Others can debate that. But it is clear that the fall of Russia as a senior spacefaring nation is the greatest astro-political catastrophe of the 21st century so far. – Wall Street Journal
Tom Rogan writes: There’s one final point to note. As with his recent dalliance in North Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that this public exercise may boost Washington’s fear that any U.S.-China war might also become a U.S.-Russia war. While that prospect is unlikely, even a marginal boosting of this possibility serves to complicate U.S. war planning and political decision-making. It thus serves as another gift from Putin to his critically important Chinese patron. – Washington Examiner
Nicholas Lokke and Kate Johnston writes: To ensure the failure of Russia’s imperialist vision, the EU must follow through on its promises to integrate new members—while becoming more resilient in the process. It would be both a strategic and an ethical failure not to support other European countries wishing to develop resilient democratic political institutions, robust civil societies, and flourishing economies. Russia should not be given a veto. – Foreign Policy
Kristaps Andrejsons writes: Russians won’t be overthrowing their regime anytime soon. But if the war becomes a more personal problem, attitudes could shift fast. This is important, because people reevaluate their risks on a daily basis—when the regime is strong, they would rather lay low and stay on the safer side. But as soon as cracks start to appear, the very same people can suddenly turn fiercely. Western policymakers should take this into account. Russian people are absolutely fine with the war ending—as long as there’s a plan for them, and not a repeat of the humiliations of the 1990s. – Foreign Policy
Syria
Prominent Syrian pro-regime businessman Baraa Katerji was killed in an Israeli strike near the Lebanese-Syrian border on Monday, three security sources told Reuters. – Reuters
Syrians in government-held areas headed to the polls on Monday to elect a new parliament, a vote expected to yield few surprises and labelled a farce by political opposition groups. – Reuters
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad said on Monday he would only meet Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan if the two countries could focus on the core issues of Ankara’s support for “terrorism” and the pullout of Turkish forces from Syrian territory. – Reuters
Erik Yavorsky and Andrew J. Tabler: Shibl’s death might also be a warning shot from top regime elements and/or their Iranian backers, possibly linked to Israel’s uptick in strikes earlier this year. Or perhaps she simply knew too much about the president and his circle and needed to be eliminated for other reasons. Either way, such assassinations could be intended to ensure internal discipline as Arab countries, Turkey, and even Europe engage with Damascus on a laundry list of issues, and as Washington mulls a potential withdrawal from northeast Syria. – Washington Institute
Middle East & North Africa
Four people were killed and several wounded by gunfire in the vicinity of a mosque in Oman, the Omani police said on Tuesday, a rare breach of security in one of the most stable countries in the Middle East. – Reuters
Three civilians were killed and three were wounded in an Israeli strike on a building in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil on Monday, three security sources told Reuters. – Reuters
Houthis launched multiple attacks in the Red Sea against MT Bentley I, which was carrying vegetable oil from Russia to China, and also attacked the Chios Lion tanker ship, the U.S. military said on X on Monday. – Reuters
A Lebanese man accused of being a member of the Hezbollah militant group and procuring drone components that were to be exported for use in attacks against Israel has been arrested in Germany, prosecutors said Monday. – Associated Press
Editorial: U.S. naval forces are operating at a pace not seen since World War II as they try to block threat after threat […] This should be an easy campaign theme for Donald Trump given his much tougher views on Iran. Voters have to ponder every issue from immigration to taxes, but unchecked chaos in the Red Sea won’t stay there. America’s options won’t improve the longer the Houthi threat is allowed to expand. – Wall Street Journal
Aviva Klompas writes: It’s not too late to stop an impending war — but that can only happen if the international community confronts Hezbollah and backs its resolutions with resolve. That means designating both Hezbollah’s political and military wings as terrorist organizations, which would leave no room for ambiguity to freeze assets, ramping up counter-terrorism efforts, and bringing terrorists to justice. It also means implementing a true monitoring system and guarantees that Hezbollah doesn’t creep back toward Israeli territory and resume attacks on northern towns. – Newsweek
Jeff Jager writes: Perhaps for the sake of Alliance consensus (understanding, of course, that the US and many other Allies have a higher tolerance for potential Israeli law and norm violations than does Turkey), Erdoğan did not block the communiqué for this omission. However, his comments did draw attention to the conspicuous gulf between NATO’s asserted commitment to norms, values, and laws and the absence of any stated Alliance policy toward the war in Gaza. – Middle East Institute
Korean Peninsula
A senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba defected with his wife and child to South Korea in November, South Korean media reports said on Tuesday, becoming the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to escape to the South since 2016. – Reuters
Asia’s crude oil imports from Canada’s newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline will rise in September as major refiners in Japan and South Korea and a refinery in Brunei have bought their first cargoes alongside China, multiple trade sources said. – Reuters
North Korean state media on Monday bristled at the deepening defense cooperation between Japan and Germany, describing the pair as “defeated war criminal nations” and warning against a larger NATO presence in Asia. – Newsweek
China
As American tech giants pull ahead in the artificial-intelligence race, China is turning to an old playbook to compete: putting the vast resources of the state behind Chinese companies. – Wall Street Journal
The long-smoldering tensions between China and Taiwan have been entering a more precarious phase. In recent months, Beijing has threatened to severely punish Taiwanese citizens who challenge China’s claim to the island. More Chinese jets have buzzed the skies near it. Chinese Coast Guard ships have sailed near Taiwan’s outer islands. – New York Times
Hong Kong’s government is testing the city’s own ChatGPT -style tool for its employees, with plans to eventually make it available to the public, its innovation minister said after OpenAI took extra steps to block access from the city and other unsupported regions. – Associated Press
Anne Stevenson-Yang writes: It feels as though a family matter ought to be sheltered from the political winds chilling China’s relationship with the West, but the Chinese government has long viewed entering or leaving the country as a privilege that only it can bestow. China is one of the most closed-off countries on Earth, with fewer than 1 million foreign-born residents (including those from Taiwan) counted in the 2020 census, against a native-born population of about 1.4 billion. Little wonder that it treats foreigners as curious but dangerous beasts that need to be carefully watched so they do not corrupt the locals. – Washington Post
South Asia
Pakistan’s government plans to ban the party of the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, officials said on Monday, a decision expected to exacerbate the political turmoil that has consumed the country for the past two years – New York Times
India is exploring ways to boost its exports to Russia, including by encouraging rupee-rouble trade and pushing Moscow to lift non-tariff barriers, New Delhi said on Monday, in the wake of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow. – Reuters
Rescuers in Nepal ruled out chances of finding survivors in last week’s landslide that swept two passenger buses carrying 65 people into a river swollen by heavy rain, authorities said on Monday. – Reuters
More than 100 students were injured across Bangladesh on Monday in clashes between those protesting to end a quota system for government jobs and others loyal to the ruling party, police and witnesses said. – Reuters
Four Indian soldiers were killed in a gunfight with suspected rebels fighting against Indian rule in the disputed region of Kashmir, the Indian military said Tuesday. – Associated Press
India unveiled a prototype Zorawar light tank this month, as defense officials seek nimbler armored fighting vehicles suitable for the mountainous terrain along the border with China, where violence broke out in mid-2020. – Defense News
Asia
A Malaysian court will hear jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s appeal against the dismissal of his legal bid to serve his sentence under house arrest on Oct. 7, his lawyer said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Thailand’s prime minister said Monday that eligible businesses and individuals can register from August for digital cash handouts, a controversial program that will cost billions of dollars and is meant to boost the lagging economy. – Associated Press
Singapore issued restriction orders under its Internal Security Act to two citizens who it says were self-radicalized due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. – Bloomberg
Armenia on Monday launched joint military drills with the United States, a move that reflects its leader’s efforts to forge closer ties with the U.S. and other Western allies as the country’s relations with old ally Russia sour. – Defense News
Andrew Nachemson writes: The National Unity Government (NUG), a parallel administration appointed by elected Myanmar lawmakers deposed in the coup, has been trying to cobble together a federal framework out of this patchwork of disparate parts. Many of the least democratic armed groups are among the most powerful, and it may be tempting for the NUG to overlook their ideological differences to cooperate against a common enemy. – Foreign Policy
Europe
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas submitted her resignation on Monday in order to take up a new job as the European Union’s foreign policy chief, the president’s office said. – Reuters
The European Union announced sanctions on Monday against five Israeli individuals and three entities, describing them as responsible for “serious and systematic human rights abuses” against Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. – Reuters
Germany’s economy ministry said it had not made a decision during Monday’s discussions in the European Commission over whether to impose tariffs on China-made electric vehicles, effectively confirming its abstention from Monday’s vote. – Reuters
A French soldier was stabbed outside a big train station in Paris on Monday and the attacker was arrested, officials said, while the city is under a high security alert 11 days before the opening ceremony of the 2024 Olympics. – Associated Press
The clang of unseen assault rifles being cocked carries across the United Nations-controlled buffer zone in ethnically cleaved Cyprus, ratcheting up concerns that the embers of the island’s stagnant conflict could again be rekindled. – Associated Press
A jailed member of Albania’s ethnic Greek minority — recently elected to the European Parliament with Greece’s governing conservative party — arrived in Athens Monday en route to Strasbourg, after being granted a five-day leave from prison to attend parliament’s opening session. – Associated Press
Several European countries are considering reopening their embassies in Afghanistan in a move that would entail diplomatic recognition of the Taliban almost three years after the fall of Kabul, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
French President Emmanuel Macron is about to set in motion the appointment of a caretaker government until negotiations to find a new prime minister bear fruit. – Bloomberg
Greece is again extending the naval drills that have largely deterred transfers of Russian oil near its coastline and forced them to other hubs across the world. – Bloomberg
An investigation showed that a crossbow attack at the Israeli embassy in the Serbian capital last month was the act of a lone extremist, a minister said on Monday. – Agence France-Presse
Elizabeth Buchanan writes: This will no doubt require a slimming down of NATO’s ambition to be everything for everyone. Hard choices, prioritization, and a return to first principles from incoming Secretary General Mark Rutte must occur. Only then will the alliance secure longevity in any meaningful way. NATO once dealt solely with the defense of Europe—until it didn’t. Instead, the alliance is regurgitating ambitions from a quarter of a century ago. This is not progress, just performance. The 2025 NATO Summit will be held in The Netherlands. Hopefully, Mr. Rutte has a plan. – The National Interest
Africa
Gambia will maintain its ban on female genital cutting following a historic decision by the National Assembly on Monday that marked a victory for women’s rights advocates in this West African nation. – Washington Post
Rwandans lined up on Monday to elect their next president, with early results putting incumbent Paul Kagame in the lead in a vote widely expected to give him a fourth term and extend his near quarter century in charge of the East African country. – Reuters
Health workers in Ivory Coast began giving children the latest malaria vaccine on Monday, the beginning of a regional campaign that experts hope might curb the impact of one of Africa’s top killers. – Associated Press
The Americas
For President Biden, it was a gamble: ease crippling sanctions on the government of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in exchange for Maduro’s promise to hold a free and fair election for president this year. – Washington Post
More than 60 children in El Salvador have been arbitrarily detained, tortured and beaten since the government declared a state of emergency over two years ago to combat gangs, a report by the Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Bolivia’s embattled president on Monday announced the discovery of vast natural gas reserves, describing it as the biggest find in nearly two decades that could help the cash-strapped country reverse its falling production. – Associated Press
Brazilian authorities launched a mega-operation in Rio de Janeiro that sent a force of nearly 2,000 military and civil officers into 10 low income neighborhoods Monday seeking to regain control of areas dominated by organized crime. – Associated Press
United States
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump, coming so soon after President Biden’s stumbles during the recent presidential debate, is reinforcing an impression outside the U.S. that the world’s pre-eminent superpower is entering an unusually turbulent and unpredictable period, prompting allies to question its reliability and foes to gloat. – Wall Street Journal
A bipartisan U.S. congressional committee urged the White House on Monday to disclose details on whether Russia was sharing insight with China on how to defeat U.S. weapons used on the battlefield in Ukraine. – Reuters
Donald Trump made his first public appearance since getting shot in an assassination attempt, with a white bandage covering his right ear as Republicans gathered to nominate him as their presidential candidate for the third time. – Bloomberg
JD Vance branded China the biggest threat to America in one of his first interviews since being named Donald Trump’s running mate, underscoring the likely hawkish stance of their administration toward Beijing if elected. – Bloomberg
Thomas Sowell writes: If anything positive can be salvaged from this ominous attempt on Donald Trump’s life, it may be his defiant response to being shot at. It may be important to let foreign enemies know that there are still some strong American leaders that they may have to deal with. – Wall Street Journal
Eric R. Terzuolo writes: After all, the structure of American politics is more based on personalities than is true in parliamentary democracies like France, and the tactical voting seen in France is less common. But the French have shown us that uniting in defense of democracy is possible, and we should draw inspiration. – The Hill
Seth Mandel writes: If you believe, as the administration claims it does, that the protesters are wrong on the facts and that their violence is un-American, why pat them on the head? Blind rage is not, in fact, “exactly what the human emotion should be”—not toward the war in Gaza, not toward the Supreme Court democratizing abortion policy, not toward inclement weather, not toward a free and fair election. “Unity” is a terrible goal if collective madness is what unites a country. – Commentary Magazine
Cybersecurity
A major Cambodian payments firm received crypto worth over $150,000 from a digital wallet used by North Korean hacking outfit Lazarus, blockchain data shows, a glimpse of how the criminal collective has laundered funds in Southeast Asia. – Reuters
The scale of AT&T’s data breach continued to widen over the weekend, with reports emerging that AT&T paid a $370,000 ransom to a hacker who obtained the logs of calls and texts to more than 100 million customers. – The Record
The FBI says it has cracked into the phone belonging to the suspected shooter in the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. – The Record
The outdoor apparel retailer Patagonia is being sued for allegedly breaking California privacy law due to its partnership with an artificial and data intelligence company, which plaintiffs say led to their communications being intercepted, recorded and analyzed by a third party without their permission. – The Record
Defense
When Joe Biden announced it in 2021, the surprise deal to share submarine and arms technology with the UK and Australia was meant to establish a generation-defining new alliance aimed at hemming in China. – Bloomberg
The Marine Corps sent a sources-sought notice to industry Monday as it looks for solutions to meet an “emerging urgent requirement” for new tools to help dismounted troops fend off small enemy drones. – DefenseScoop
The Navy’s Aegis Ashore will play a central role in NATO’s commitment to an integrated air and missile defense, the secretary general announced at the alliance’s Washington summit. – USNI News
Brandon J. Weichert writes: Yet the Navy isn’t investing in these systems. Instead, the Pentagon continues splurging on legacy systems—notably the costly aircraft carrier—and hoping that China’s A2/AD systems aren’t as effective as Beijing claims they are. In other words, the Pentagon would rather spend its money enriching defense contractors instead of building relevant, cost-effective systems that can actually defeat the Chinese. – The National Interest