Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s military was assessing on Sunday whether it successfully killed Hamas’s top commander Mohammed Deif in an airstrike in southern Gaza a day earlier, military officials said. – Wall Street Journal

Israel has tried to kill top Hamas commander Mohammed Deif at least five times. If the strike targeting him on Saturday has finally killed him, it would mark one of Israel’s biggest achievements since the start of the nine-month war in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

Talks between Israel and Hamas on a cease-fire and hostage deal are at a critical juncture after being moribund for months, with pressure building on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to close a deal. – Wall Street Journal

Through eight months of fighting in Gaza, Hamas’s military wing — the Qassam Brigades — has fought as a decentralized and largely hidden force, in contrast to its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which began with a coordinated large-scale maneuver in which thousands of uniformed commandos surged through border towns and killed roughly 1,200 people. – New York Times

After two weeks of intense battles between Hamas militants and Israeli troops in the Gaza City neighborhood of Shajaiye, residents and rescue workers combed through the wreckage on Friday, a landscape of flattened buildings strewed with dozens of bodies. – New York Times

Four people were wounded, one critically, when a suspected attacker rammed into a bus stop in central Israel on Sunday, Israeli authorities said. – Reuters

One Syrian soldier was killed and three others were injured in Israeli air strikes against military sites and a residential building in Damascus early on Sunday, the Syrian army said. – Reuters

At least 17 Palestinians were killed and 50 were wounded in Israeli strikes on Gaza City in the early hours of Sunday morning, civil emergency and health officials said. – Reuters

Gaza ceasefire talks have been halted after three days of intense negotiations failed to produce a viable outcome, two Egyptian security sources said on Saturday, blaming Israel for lacking a genuine intent to reach agreement. – Reuters

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Israel and the United States were responsible for an attack that killed dozens in the Gaza Strip on Saturday, but the Western-backed leader also blamed Hamas for the continuing war in Gaza. – Reuters

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres declared on Friday that there is no alternative to the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA and 118 countries backed the relief organization as indispensable, amid stepped up efforts by Israel to dismantle it. – Reuters

The International Court of Justice will deliver its opinion on the legal consequences of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories on July 19, the ICJ said on Friday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet US President Joe Biden in Washington on Monday, two days before he is scheduled to deliver an address to a joint session of Congress. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s government on Sunday voted to approve the progression of a bill sponsored by the Defense Ministry to lengthen mandatory service for men in most units in the IDF from 32 to 36 months. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s eldest son on Sunday hit out at Qatar, accusing the Gulf emirate of being a leading state sponsor of terrorism and drawing a rebuke from a Qatari diplomat who warned the comments could harm the hostage-for-ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas that Doha is helping broker. – Times of Israel

Editorial: It isn’t in the U.S. interest to pressure Israel to pretend otherwise. Some Israeli statements have left an opening for Egyptian control, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to close that door in recent days. A senior Israeli official tells us, “We are going to be in Philadelphi for the foreseeable future. We’ve made that clear in negotiations.” Another thing Israel has made clear: It isn’t going to slow the pace of the fighting to smooth the talks. To get a deal, let Hamas negotiate under fire. – Wall Street Journal

Nimrod Dweck writes: What if Netanyahu decides to change his stance? The opposition has pledged to support him if he takes decisive steps. Politically, he could maintain power for some time if the coalition dissolves. While his position as prime minister may waver, bipartisan support could enable him to reshape Israel.This is Netanyahu’s moment of legacy, and the Israeli public is waiting for him to seize it. – Jerusalem Post

Avi Abelow writes: Netanyahu must follow Ben-Gurion and Begin’s path in doing whatever is necessary to protect the country, despite threats from the American administration. He mustn’t make choices like Meir’s, which could lead to countless Israeli deaths. The October 7 death toll is already way too high, with no sign of abating. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

His death added to a toll of more than two dozen other men who have drowned in the River Tysa since Russia invaded, many of them fugitives from a military draft aimed at sustaining Ukraine’s war effort. Pidmalivskiy was different: He had fought for two years after returning to Ukraine from abroad to defend his country. – Wall Street Journal

A Russian plot to kill one of Europe’s most prominent defense-industry executives signals a significant escalation in Moscow’s covert efforts to sabotage Western weapons production and weaken support for Ukraine, Western officials said. – Wall Street Journal

For much of the war, it was one-way traffic, with Russia using the occupied Crimean Peninsula first as a launchpad for its full-scale invasion and then as a staging ground for routine aerial bombardments. Ukraine, now armed with American-made precision missiles, is for the first time capable of reaching every corner of Crimea — and the missiles are increasingly flying in both directions. – New York Times

The path for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — a once distant prospect before Russia launched its full-scale invasion on the country — is now “irreversible,” members of the bloc said from Washington this week. – New York Times

The southern Russian city of Novorossiisk on the Black Sea declared a state of emergency on Sunday as forest fires spread across an area of 22 hectares, its mayor said. – Reuters

While men may be coming round to Ukraine’s ramped-up mobilisation drive to replenish troop numbers more than 28 months since Russia’s invasion, they are less eager to fight than before, said a draft officer, who uses the call sign “Fantomas”. – Reuters

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, said on Saturday that tensions had subsided at his country’s border with Ukraine and extra troops deployed there were being sent back to their bases. – Reuters

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday that its forces had taken control of the village of Urozhaine in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, which if confirmed would be the latest in a series of gains since capturing the strategic town of Avdiivka in February. – Reuters

European countries would be putting themselves at risk if they accept deployments of long-range U.S. missiles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a video published on Saturday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an unannounced visit to Ireland on his way back from the NATO summit in Washington to meet with Prime Minister Simon Harris. – Bloomberg

Moscow on Sunday accused the United States of bankrolling Ukrainian attempts on the life of Russian President Vladmir Putin, hours after former US president Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt. – Times of Israel

Josh Rogin writes: If next year a Trump administration does try to pressure Ukraine into negotiations with Russia, Ukraine’s hand should be as strong as possible. For that reason alone, the Biden team should now give Kyiv a longer leash to act. Lifting restrictions on Ukraine would also save lives — and make sense politically. Biden likes to say the United States will support Ukraine for “as long it takes.” The reality, as he, Zelensky and Putin all know, is he might have only six months left with the power to keep that promise. – Washington Post

James Stavridis writes: When I was NATO’s military commander a decade ago and raised my Arctic concerns with senior Canadians, they would tell me to relax, that it was “High North but low tension.” One joked that if the Russians attacked Canada across the Arctic, “We would end up performing search and rescue on them.” Maybe. But that was well before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and his push on combat icebreakers. Russia’s Arctic capabilities are no longer a punch line. – Bloomberg

Dov S. Zakheim writes: It has led NATO to characterize the process of granting Ukraine’s membership in the alliance as “irreversible.” It has resulted in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky successfully getting alliance commitments to deliver Patriot missiles and other air defense systems to his forces. And it has also led to his winning support from an increasing number of NATO members to heed his call, made again this week in his remarks at the Ronald Reagan Institute, to drop all restrictions on the use of their systems against targets inside Russia. – The Hill

Hannah Notte writes: Warnings from Washington that Moscow should not involve itself are unlikely to succeed. Instead, the United States should encourage its Gulf Arab partners to exert quiet pressure on Russia not to transfer missiles and other weaponry to Iranian proxies, making clear the risks of doing so. The United States should also beef up its own defenses, encourage its Israeli partners to respect Russian redlines in Syria and, above all, step up its diplomatic efforts to ensure that, should an Israel-Hezbollah war break out, it can be quickly contained. – Foreign Affairs

Afghanistan

Afghanistan remains a global pariah in large part because of the Taliban’s restrictions on female education, and that isolation has deprived the country of foreign funding for urgently needed measures to adapt to climate change. – Washington Post

Women in Afghanistan living under Taliban rule are reportedly building networks to fight for their rights in the country, Deutsche Welle reported on Friday. The report also cites that the women were encouraged to take such an initiative due to “a lack of support from the West.” – Jerusalem Post

Taliban officials in Afghanistan have been filmed dancing to music – both of which they immediately banned in a draconian crackdown when they returned to power. The militant group – who outlawed music, dance, and any form of public celebration – were caught on video swaying and twirling with guns slung over their shoulders in a park in western Herat. – The Telegraph

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s investment ministry signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Saudia Group to support investors and executives from global companies who are aiming to relocate to the Kingdom, Saudia Group said in a statement on Saturday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia faces the most precarious moment yet of its economic reinvention. Eight years after now-Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled Vision 2030, his blueprint for a life after oil, delays and scalebacks with the multitrillion dollar makeover are laying bare the pressure on the kingdom’s finances. – Bloomberg

Ellie Podeh writes: Ending the war, with a linkage to a regional process vis-à-vis the Saudis, will halt and even reverse this process, and might expand the circle of countries that normalize relations with Israel. And finally, it is in Israel’s interest to offer a vision for a solution to the Palestinian issue, as all attempts to bypass this problem have failed. The fact that quiet normalization continues with the moderate Arab countries during the war is an important sign of the strong existing interests behind this alliance. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

A Tunisian judge barred a potential presidential candidate from appearing in the media or travelling around the country on Friday, the latest politician to face what their parties have called obstructions to challenging President Kais Saied. – Reuters

The United Nations mission in Libya (UNSMIL) called on Saturday for the immediate release of a journalist detained in Tripoli two days ago, adding all media workers should be kept safe. – Reuters

As elections approach in Tunisia, potential candidates are facing arrest or being summoned to appear in court as authorities clamp down on those planning to challenge President Kais Saied. – Associated Press

Syrians were voting for members of a new parliament in an election Monday that was expected to hold few surprises but could pave the way for a constitutional amendment to extend the term of President Bashar Assad. – Associated Press

China

For years, Liuzhou and scores of other Chinese cities together amassed trillions of dollars in off-the-books debt for economic development projects. The opaque financing was the yeast that helped China rise to the envy of the world. – Wall Street Journal

Xi Jinping, China’s leader, and 370 or so other Communist Party officials are meeting in Beijing this week, away from the public eye, to review a plan intended to shake the world’s second-biggest economy out of its malaise. – New York Times

The Chinese military presence near one of the world’s most vital sea lanes raises fundamental questions about Beijing’s ambitions. While the American constellation of military bases remains by far the largest in the world, a resurgent China is bringing countries like Cambodia into its orbit. – New York Times

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday it was monitoring “waves” of missile tests taking place in China’s far northern region of Inner Mongolia and that its air defence forces were on alert. – Reuters

Chinese and Russian naval fleets recently conducted their fourth joint sea patrol in the Western and Northern Pacific Ocean, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported on Sunday. – Reuters

China expressed strong opposition on Saturday to a U.S. law signed by President Joe Biden that presses Beijing to resolve a dispute over Tibet’s demands for greater autonomy, vowing to “firmly defend” its interests. – Reuters

The new Solomon Islands prime minister is in China for a visit as Beijing and the strategic Pacific archipelago strengthen their ties. Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the Chinese capital on Friday after a stop in coastal Fujian province earlier this week. – Associated Press

Ivan Eland writes: Washington can deter China through a porcupine strategy. This strategy entails arming Taiwan with the capabilities to inflict enough damage on the Chinese mainland to dissuade aggression in the first place. Such changes in warfare and weaponry and the creation of regional alliances or partnerships to contain and deter China from an imperial jaunt in Asia should allow the heavily indebted United States to end its global overextension and prolong its life as a great power. – The National Interest

Asia

Japan’s Ministry of Defense on Friday reprimanded more than 100 people including some top officers for mishandling classified security information, in a case that comes amid concern about the country’s exposure to hacking by adversaries such as China. – Wall Street Journal

Nepal’s president on Sunday appointed a new prime minister, the latest in a revolving door of leaders that has left the country of 30 million in a continuous state of political uncertainty. – New York Times

Russia accused Australia of inciting “anti-Russian paranoia” for charging a Russian-born couple with espionage, prompting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Saturday to tell Moscow to “back off”. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund will provide Papua New Guinea with immediate access to about $125 million, the IMF said in a statement on Friday following its executive board’s second review that cited “authorities’ strong commitment to reforms.” – Reuters

Cambodia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday announced that a military helicopter had gone missing while flying over the heavily forested Cardamom Mountain range in the country’s southwest, confirming earlier media reports that contact with the aircraft had been lost on Friday. – Associated Press

Africa

On Monday, more than nine million people will cast their ballots in a presidential and parliamentary election that analysts and rights groups say is a rubber-stamp vote with a foregone conclusion. Even though hundreds of candidates have registered to run for various seats, only Mr. Kagame’s face dots the landscapes of this hilly, landlocked nation of 14 million people. – New York Times

U.N. peacekeepers are unlikely to proceed with an agreed withdrawal from Congo’s conflict-torn North Kivu for as long as Rwandan troops remain in the eastern province, the Congolese foreign minister said on Saturday. – Reuters

A car bomb exploded outside a restaurant in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu on Sunday night, killing five and injuring 20 as patrons were watching the final of the Euro 2024 football tournament on TV, police said, blaming Islamist insurgents. – Reuters

Kenya’s police chief Japhet Koome resigned on Friday following intense criticism of officers’ conduct during anti-government protests last month in which at least 39 people were killed. – Reuters

Five prisoners and three soldiers were killed Saturday in a failed attempt by some inmates to break out of a prison in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, a corrections officer said. – Associated Press

Terrorism and organized crime by violent extremist groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State are a “pervasive threat” in Africa’s volatile Sahel region and are spilling over to West Africa’s coastal countries, the top U.N. envoy for the area warned Friday. – Associated Press

Nigerien authorities enforced a curfew Friday as they searched for inmates who escaped from one of the country’s most fortified prisons in the Tillaberi region after it was breached under unclear circumstances. – Associated Press

Carey Baraka writes: This is a profound shift from two years ago, when young Kenyans were written off as indifferent — and unimportant — to the entire political process. The new movement is accomplishing something big in Kenya, and people sense it. Yes, they’re going to the streets to fight for this country’s democracy. But they are also going to see history in the making. When their children and grandchildren someday ask where they were during the Kenyan protests in 2024, they don’t want to say they weren’t there. – New York Times

Ken Opalo writes: The problem with the electoral option is that intra-elite coordination will be harder to achieve in Cote d’Ivoire, where institutions are still stalked by the recent history of political instability. Make no mistake, the justifications for an Ouattara run that may have worked in 2020 or 2015 no longer hold. Allowing him another term risks a stable future. – Bloomberg

North America

Canada, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, is trying to achieve some of the world’s most ambitious emissions-reduction targets while also boosting oil production in an industry that is already the world’s fourth-largest. – Wall Street Journal

Canada’s promise this week to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2032 was welcome news to the country’s NATO allies, but meeting that commitment could push Canada deeper into deficit or force major cuts in spending, economists said. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a resolution condemning “in the strongest terms” the increasing gang violence and criminal activity in Haiti that is undermining peace, stability and security in the country and the region. – Associated Press

Canada’s finance minister said she’ll hold talks next week with business and labor groups about erecting trade barriers against Chinese-made vehicles — and suggested the government may even go beyond autos. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

U.S. Republican lawmakers are seeking a probe into Microsoft’s MSFT $1.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence firm G42, citing concerns about the transfer of advanced technology and possible ties the Abu Dhabi-based company may have with China. – Wall Street Journal

An investigation by India’s antitrust body has found that Apple exploited its dominant position in the market for app stores on its iOS operating system, engaging “in abusive conduct and practices”, a confidential report seen by Reuters showed. – Reuters

The Israel Defense Forces’ cloud computing network has faced over three billion cyber attacks since war broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7, the officer commanding the military’s computer unit said this week, but all of the attacks were intercepted and did not cause damage. – Times of Israel

Andrei Iancu and David Kappos writes: AI is poised to help researchers accelerate progress and facilitate discoveries in many industries. It would be a mistake to short-circuit this process by denying patent protection to researchers doing crucial work. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, as America’s innovation agency, can do its part to encourage AI-facilitated inventions by issuing new guidance that recognizes AI as a tool—and a productive one at that. – Wall Street Journal

Long War

Four police officers were killed and at least three injured in clashes between Iraqi government forces and Islamic State militants in Diyala province in eastern Iraq on Saturday, police and medical sources said. – Reuters

A suicide bomber detonated an explosives-laden vehicle and at least one of his accomplices exploded his vest near the outer wall of a military facility in northwestern Pakistan early Monday, wounding eight civilians and damaging nearby homes, a local police official said. – Associated Press

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: Ignoring this new reality will only lead to the Islamic State potentially once again being thrust higher up on the policy agenda. It would then siphon time and resources away from other policy issues that from a long-term perspective are probably more consequential to U.S. security. Therefore, getting the reality of the Islamic State today right is more important than ever and it is better to put more resources toward this now than an even greater amount later when there might be a future crisis. – War on the Rocks