Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The United Nations has accused armed forces affiliated with the Hamas-run government in Gaza of interfering with the delivery of food aid at a distribution site on Saturday. – New York Times

The European Commission and more than a dozen countries launched an initiative on Monday to deliver €883.6 ​million ($1 billion) in aid projects to help Gaza recover from ‌war. – Reuters

The document released on Monday, which showed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar believed Israel might use nuclear weapons in response to an October 7 massacre-style invasion, is nothing short of astounding. – Jerusalem Post

Fourteen suspects have been arrested after police uncovered a smuggling network suspected of being used to manufacture explosive devices for terrorist organizations in the West Bank on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Ambassador Eli Vered Hazan was appointed the Next World Chairman of Keren Hayesod, the organization announced in a statement on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF detained several Israeli civilians in the Golan Heights on Monday after they attempted to cross into Syrian territory, the military said. – Jerusalem Post

A new policy paper published by the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy called on the Israeli government to take a series of steps to reduce the Turkish consulate’s activity in Jerusalem and limit the status of its representatives. – Jerusalem Post

The Knesset voted 63-52 on Monday to pass a deeply divisive Basic Law declaring Torah study a “foundational value” of the Jewish people and the State of Israel, following 10 hours of speeches and opposition filibustering, and despite resistance from the opposition, legal officials, reservists and some coalition lawmakers. – Times of Israel

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine is targeting Russian energy infrastructure with its growing fleet of long-range drones and missiles, causing fuel shortages in one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers and embarrassing President Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian lawmakers were getting ready to vote on another government this week after the president dismissed his prime minister in a ​move he said would bring fresh thinking, but critics warned could stoke disorder at a key point in the war. – Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that France would allow Ukraine to produce French-made ​cruise missiles, precision guided bombs and air defence interceptor ‌missiles after Kyiv ordered next generation Franco-Italian air defence systems and Rafale fighter jets. – Reuters

A Russian attack ​on a ‌Togolese-flagged civilian merchant vessel ​killed ​three crew and injured ⁠five, ​Ukraine’s Deputy ​Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said ​on Monday. – Reuters

Ukraine and nine other countries announced Monday they were forming a coalition to protect Europe from ballistic missiles, utilizing Kyiv’s experience in fighting Russia’s full-scale invasion for over four years. – Associated Press

Russian tourists are continuing to take their summer holidays in Crimea despite persistent Ukrainian drone attacks, a state of emergency, fuel shortages and power outages on the annexed Black Sea peninsula. – Bloomberg

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered stakes in three Russian companies owned by Dutch paints and coatings maker Akzo Nobel NV transferred to temporary administration. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian forces hit seven Russian fuel tankers, five dry-cargo vessels and a batch of other ships in the Sea of Azov as Kyiv expands the scope of its maritime attacks in the area. – Bloomberg

Crimea was supposed to be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s crowning achievement — a stronghold in the war against Ukraine, a launchpad to project Russia’s military power across the Black Sea and a domestic symbol of his imperial ambitions. – Politico

Editorial: President Donald Trump announced that he will grant Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot interceptor missiles. This decision is a welcome shift in U.S. policy that will serve American and Ukrainian interests alike. Both the United States and Europe will be safer as a result. “We’re going to give you a license to make Patriots,” Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during Wednesday’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. “I think they can produce them very quickly once we explain it,” he added. – Washington Examiner

Harlan Ullman writes: As in Cuba, things did not go as planned. The Cuban Missile Crisis lasted 13 days. The fighting in Ukraine has lasted longer than World War I. Economic and social conditions in Russia continue to deteriorate. Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy sector have led to the rationing of gasoline and, in some cases, electricity. While the number is uncertain, Russia has likely suffered more than a million casualties, with up to 500,000 dead. No Politburo exists today as in Khrushchev’s era. Putin seems to be in total control. But the fiasco that happened 64 years ago might have reverberations today. Russia is not winning in Ukraine. And if Crimea is indeed under threat from a Ukrainian offensive, a desperate Putin may find himself facing Khrushchev’s fate. – The Hill

Michael Kimmage and Hanna Notte write: Officials in Ukraine, Europe, and the United States contemplating negotiations with Russia must think beyond a cease-fire. Should Ukraine cement a deal with Russia, something that Kyiv has understandably been pursuing, a sustainable end to the conflict will be possible only with a genuinely redefined calculus in Russia. Kyiv and its partners would need to compel Moscow to abandon its will to dominate Ukraine, an improbable development as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. […] If the fighting does stop, rather than congratulating themselves, Ukraine, Europe, and the United States should stay focused on Putin’s will to divide and conquer. It might well be the reason Russia entertains a cease-fire in the first place. – Foreign Affairs

Ryan C. Crocker writes: The single, overarching lesson I derive from both the Ukraine and Gulf conflicts is the criticality of sustained, focused US leadership. We were not a world leader in the period before the first and second world wars. Ukraine paid the price with the Soviets and the Nazis. Since WWII, we have led, and the world and America are safer. What the US does in one theater is closely watched by our allies and adversaries in others. We must show long-term resolve in both. – Middle East Institute

Keti Korkiya writes: For Washington, the stakes extend beyond South Ossetia or even Georgia. If Moscow can quietly absorb the region after enough time has passed and enough facts have been manufactured on the ground, it reinforces a broader lesson Russia has been testing across the post-Soviet space: that borders can still be redrawn by force, occupation, and coerced dependency. Other revanchist powers are watching how the West treats this territorial absorption. The United States should not wait for a formal annexation decree before responding. It should publicly condemn the absorption process now, reaffirm that South Ossetia is Georgian territory, coordinate with European partners, and signal that officials facilitating the region’s incorporation into Russia could face consequences. – The National Interest

Keith Johnson writes: All of this comes at a time of renewed hype about U.S. congressional action against Russia, namely the Sanctioning Russia Act. The legislation, championed by U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham—who died suddenly on Saturday—would give the president discretion to levy tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. U.S. President Donald Trump has long frowned on the bill, but Graham told reporters in Kyiv shortly before his death that lawmakers had come up with a version that the White House had accepted. The bigger question is whether the stepped-up strikes, and their impact on the Russian economy, will change the Kremlin’s calculus. Four-plus years of sanctions, a weakish ruble, and international opprobrium haven’t. Ukraine’s threat is not going away. Kyiv can now make as many as 8 million drones a year. – Foreign Policy

Middle East & North Africa

Moroccan police arrested dissident commentator Ali Lmrabet for questioning ​upon his arrival at Tangier ‌airport on Sunday, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said on Monday. – Reuters

Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, aims to secure major U.S. investment in his country’s oil, gas, and power sectors during a visit to the White House this week, ​after the Iran war hammered crude output and state finances. – Reuters

An Indian crew member is still missing after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was hit ​in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and ‌a search operation is underway to find him, Cyprus’s Deputy Ministry of Shipping said on Monday. – Reuters

Black smoke drifted from a fully-loaded Qatari tanker burning in the Strait of Hormuz last week after being hit by Iran. The attack threatened to all but halt traffic through the crucial waterway again four months into the war with the Islamic Republic. – Bloomberg

Aliza Pilichowski writes: The real colonial dynamic in the Middle East stems from those expansive conquests that reshaped identities and suppressed diversity across North Africa and beyond. Israel, by contrast, embodies resilience and revival, the Jewish people’s determination to reclaim and rebuild in their eternal homeland, contributing to the region while defending against ongoing threats. – Jerusalem Post

Syria’s newly formed People’s Assembly on Sunday elected constitutional law scholar Dr. Abdul Hamid al-Awak as speaker, while Mustafa Moussa and Dr. Madona Suhail Bashara were elected deputy speakers during the legislature’s first session since the fall of former President Bashar Assad, marking the launch of Syria’s first legislative body in the country’s transitional period. – Jerusalem Post

David Schenker writes: So far, Trump has been enthusiastic about al-Zaidi. Based on the prime minister’s performance so far, the Trump administration is right to be reasonably optimistic. But other seemingly promising Iraqi premiers—like Mustafa al-Kadhimi (2020–26) and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (2022–26)—failed to limit Iranian influence or, worse, ended up empowering terrorist factions of the PMF. For Iraq to succeed and for the US-Iraq relationship to improve, Washington should curb its exuberance and commit to sustained and intensive engagement with Baghdad. It’s going to be a long, hard slog. – The National Interest

China

China’s exports surged more than expected, defying forecasts of a slowdown and providing a vital boost to an economy still weighed down by weak domestic demand. – Wall Street Journal

The most powerful storm to strike mainland China this year forced more than 260,000 people ​to evacuate their homes in northeastern Liaoning province, ‌as Typhoon Bavi brought intense flooding. – Reuters

China has expelled Ma Xingrui, ​a former Politburo member, from the ruling Communist Party on corruption charges, making him the third sitting ‌member of the elite decision-making body to be purged since 2025 as President Xi Jinping intensifies his anti-graft campaign. – Reuters

A Chinese-born American seismologist who has published U.S.-funded work on detecting North Korean nuclear tests has been detained in China for nearly two years and faces trial on spying charges, according to his wife, U.S. lawmakers and two hostage advocacy groups. – Reuters

Shein ​Executive Chairman Donald Tang will step down as his mission of taking the company public nears completion, three sources with direct knowledge of ‌the matter said on Monday, after three years as the public face of the global fast-fashion retailer. – Reuters

Beijing has renewed its call for safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran declared the key trade route effectively closed after the Islamic Republic and the U.S. carried out their most intense attacks since reaching a memorandum of understanding in June. – Newsweek

Lizzi C. Lee and Eric Olander write: Even if Beijing stays out of the way, the larger economic risk is that China’s expanding commercial reach deepens the problems that pushed its firms abroad in the first place. As Chinese companies chase overseas markets to escape weak domestic demand and brutal price wars, their short-term success relieves pressure on leaders in Beijing to fix the country’s underlying growth model. It will be an empty victory if Chinese firms’ growing reach slows the country’s much-needed transition toward a sustainable economic system built on higher productivity and more innovation. – Foreign Affairs

Decker Eveleth writes: Western analysts have a bad habit of reading too much into Chinese behavior, over-indexing on the assumption that Beijing is trying to send messages with its every move. This habit is counterproductive and encourages onlookers to read malicious intent into innocuous moves likely driven by bureaucratic pressures, which in turn fuels Chinese paranoia about Western intent and makes China less likely to engage in the future. In the long run, a slower and more cooperative approach on risk reduction will yield better results than demanding that China immediately conform to the United States’ expectations. – Foreign Policy

Asia

A fire tore through a popular Bangkok bar and live music venue late Sunday, killing at least 27 people and putting a spotlight on fire safety in a country where nightlife makes up an important part of the tourism industry. – Wall Street Journal

ASEAN’s re-engagement with Myanmar runs the risk of providing legitimacy to the military-led government and ​undermining the regional group’s own plan to end violence in the war-torn country, analysts said. – Reuters

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has played down the need to call for a snap poll after his Pakatan Harapan coalition suffered a bruising defeat at Johor state elections over the weekend. – Bloomberg

Australia’s government has moved to block three China-linked shareholders of rare earths miner Northern Minerals Ltd. from voting or exercising other rights after they defied earlier orders to sell their stock. – Bloomberg

Africa

Gunmen killed at least 18 people in Nigeria’s northern Benue state in ​a weekend attack, residents and local officials ‌said, triggering a march by angry locals who blocked roads in protest at the violence. – Reuters

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has spread to two more ​northeastern provinces, Haut-Uele and Tshopo, the country’s public health institute ‌said in its latest report. – Reuters

Guinea-Bissau opposition leader and former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira was moved back to ​prison last Friday following a decision by ‌the West African country’s military court, his family told Reuters. – Reuters

The European Union announced on Monday ​new sanctions against Sudan ‌by targeting the country’s gold trade, which it ​said was being used ​to finance the military ⁠conflict in the country. – Reuters

The University of Oxford has launched the first human trial of a vaccine against Bundibugyo ebolavirus, seeking to accelerate efforts to ​combat an outbreak spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo ‌and Uganda. – Reuters

South Africa has deported or repatriated more than 53,000 African immigrants in the space of a month in a crackdown by authorities that has coincided with a series of sometimes violent protests against illegal migration. – Associated Press

Editorial: The Biden administration cut off the country’s participation in a program giving African countries preferential access to U.S. markets. The Trump administration, however, has remained silent on the premise that a country’s internal affairs are its own business. While U.S. senators decried the January elections as a “hollow exercise,” the State Department stuck to its new directive of not commenting on the legitimacy of foreign elections. President Donald Trump prefers transactional relationships over values-based diplomacy, and Uganda deserves credit for helping combat the al-Shabab Islamist militant group. At the same time, stability built on repression risks proving illusory. – Washington Post

North America

Mexico is demanding criminal investigations into the deaths of 17 Mexicans in the United States since the Trump administration launched its crackdown on illegal immigration last year, officials here said Monday. – Washington Post

Canada’s federal banking regulator warned the ​country’s largest financial institutions about the risks of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos and other advanced AI models, saying the new technology could increase cyber ‌threats and reduce the time institutions have to identify and fix vulnerabilities, according to an email sent in April. – Reuters

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has secured ​the nomination of his ruling Nuevas ‌Ideas party for the 2027 presidential election, the party said late on Sunday, following legal ​changes that cleared the way for ​his seeking a third term. – Reuters

The US added Cuba’s Ministry of Tourism to its expanding sanctions list, striking once-again at one of the main economic drivers of the communist-run Caribbean island. – Bloomberg

The Pentagon has spent at least $2.64 billion on operations at the southwest border with Mexico, according to Congress’s audit agency in the most comprehensive cost accounting yet of the military’s expanded role in immigration enforcement. – Bloomberg

The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), operated by Canada and the United States, has gaping holes in its airspace radar coverage. Ottawa went some way to filling those gaps when it signed four related agreements in June for a new radar system sourced from Australia. – Defense News

Cybersecurity

The European Union is working to curb minors’ access to social media with a proposal likely to land after the summer, as a growing number of countries move to restrict young people’s use of the platforms. – Wall Street Journal

European authorities sanctioned Russian intelligence units and hackers on Monday, accusing them of a 15-year campaign targeting governments and critical infrastructure across the continent. – Wall Street Journal

Big Tech companies, including Apple, ​Meta and Google, have “significant gaps” in tackling child sexual abuse and the growing threat of online sexual extortion, Australia’s internet ‌regulator said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Nvidia has more than halved the number of Asian customers authorised to buy its AI chips after introducing a “white list” of companies that passed tougher ​compliance checks to prevent the products from reaching China, the ​Financial Times reported on Monday. – Reuters

Authorities arrested more than 5,800 alleged cybercriminals and seized $293 million in a global operation targeting social-engineering scams and money laundering across 97 countries, Interpol said Thursday. – Cyberscoop

The Trump administration’s abrupt firing of Election Assistance Commission commissioners last week and a Department of Justice warning threatening states with criminal prosecution have created new legal peril for officials who run, administer and secure elections. – Cyberscoop

Russian state-sponsored hackers are breaking into critical infrastructure around the world by exploiting poorly configured and vulnerable networking devices, authorities from the United States and 12 additional countries said in a joint cybersecurity advisory Monday. – Cyberscoop

John Bailey writes: Third, the government needs deeper technical expertise. The uncomfortable truth beneath this episode is that the federal government may not yet have the in-house capacity to evaluate frontier AI risks at the speed and sophistication the moment requires. The Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) should be strengthened, adequately funded, and connected directly to the national security agencies that will have to make these judgments under pressure. The ideas for governing this technology are maturing fast. The institution capable of holding them is not. Closing that gap, before the models write the next models, is the real work ahead. – American Enterprise Institute