Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Palestinians who have held out in northern Gaza through nine months of war and extreme hunger are resisting a new push by the Israeli military to empty out the strip’s biggest city, fearing poor conditions in the south and potential limitations on ever returning. – Wall Street Journal

Andrei Kozlov spent his first days as a hostage in Gaza with his hands bound behind his back with rope. When he was finally fed a bit of bread and hummus, he had to shimmy his hands behind his back and under his thighs to grip the food. – Wall Street Journal

Israel​’s military blamed itself for failing to defend ​against Hamas militants’ ​rampage through a community on the ​Gaza border where scores were killed or taken hostage on Oct. 7, in the first released findings of a large military investigation into the nation’s worst intelligence failure and terrorist attack. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military has failed to re-anchor its humanitarian pier to Gaza, the Pentagon said Thursday, and soon will “cease operations” on an aid-delivery mission plagued by setbacks from almost the moment President Biden announced it four months ago. – Washington Post

Gazan health officials say that more than 38,000 people have been killed in nine months of fighting between Israel and Hamas, but researchers are also studying how many people have died as an indirect result of the conflict. – New York Times

Israel rained bombs on Gaza City during a week that residents described as comparable to the fiercest battle of the war, while a Palestinian Islamic Jihad official on Thursday said a new round of peace talks ended with no agreements yet. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday the Israel-Gaza war must end now and Israel must not occupy the enclave after the war, telling reporters his ceasefire framework had been agreed on by both Israel and Hamas but there were still gaps to close. – Reuters

Foreign Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies on Thursday denounced Israel’s move to expand its settlements in the occupied West Bank, saying it was “counterproductive to the cause of peace”. – Reuters

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday called for a state inquiry into failings around the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, saying it should investigate Gallant himself and his boss, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Reuters

Talks on ending the Gaza conflict have made progress on the issues of hostage releases and withdrawal of Israeli forces, but security arrangements and ceasefire guarantees are still being worked on, two Egyptian security sources said on Thursday. – Reuters

Hamas said in a statement on Thursday that mediators have not yet provided the group with any updates regarding Gaza ceasefire negotiations. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on a far-right Israeli group and four unauthorized West Bank outposts, in the latest move by the Biden administration aimed at those the U.S. says undermine stability in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. – Reuters

Several drones from Lebanon fell inside Israel on Thursday, the Israeli military said, while the head of the local municipality told Israel’s Channel 12 that one person was critically injured. – Reuters

The head of the U.S. agency overseeing American humanitarian assistance worldwide on Thursday said she has received Israeli pledges to allow aid workers to move more quickly and safely throughout the war-battered Gaza Strip. – Associated Press

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) is employing 100 terrorist operatives and directly asked the organization to terminate the staffers immediately. – Fox News

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded Thursday that Israel retain control of key Gaza territory along the border with Egypt as part of any accord to suspend the war with Hamas. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: Who decided to play this down? Whose consciences should be plagued with the horror of being part of the decision-making process to have caused this? To Israel’s politicians, who have time and time again since the war began thwarted blame – show some humility. This is at least in part on your heads. – Jerusalem Post

Sean Durns writes: Yet, on another level, the strike is practical, too. Phillip Smyth, an expert on Hezbollah, noted that Nasrallah’s bodyguards and those who have served closely with him “have been key movers and shakers for the group in the region and abroad.” With Hezbollah, “the circle of trust is very real.” Whether the strike will deter Nasrallah from escalating further remains to be seen. But the status quo in Israel’s north is plainly unsustainable. – Washington Examiner

Zalman Shoval writes: Though not going as far as Senators Sanders, Warren, and some other members of Congress in altogether opposing military aid to Israel, like the Israeli Left, he does not address the real causes of the conflict. As the late Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion had said, “Peace will come when the Arabs also want it” and none other than Biden added last year that it will come “when Israel’s neighbors recognize the right of the Jewish people to their own state.” Both were right. – Jerusalem Post

Carolina Landsmann writes: They must admit their failure and recognize that the only things still standing instead of being swept away by Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood are the agreements Israel signed before Netanyahu got the chance to destroy them – the peace agreement with Egypt, the Oslo Accords with the PLO and the peace agreement with Jordan. They must acknowledge their mistake and their failure and enable Israel to change lanes, so that it can switch to the only lane in which it has a viable future. – Haaretz

Russia & Ukraine

Russia is prepared to take military measures to “counter-deter” NATO’s expanding arsenal in Europe in response to a U.S. decision to deploy longer-range missiles in Germany for the first time since the 1980s, high-ranking Moscow officials said Thursday. – Washington Post

Russia has placed the widow of the late opposition campaigner Aleksei A. Navalny on its official terrorist and extremist list, days after charging her in a Moscow court with “participating in an extremist community.” – New York Times

Russia is committed to finding the “earliest possible solution” to the issue of Indians being duped into joining its army and fighting in the Ukraine war, a top Russian diplomat said, in Moscow’s first comments on the matter. – Reuters

Ukraine seized a foreign cargo ship on the Danube River and detained the captain on suspicion of helping Moscow export Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, officials said on Thursday. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday announced a new security package for Ukraine worth $225 million, which includes a Patriot missile battery, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems and missiles, among other items. – Reuters

Ukraine and Romania on Thursday signed a 10-year security agreement, the Ukrainian presidential office said. – Reuters

Ukraine on Thursday urged NATO allies to lift restrictions on its use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia, saying that would be “game-changer” in its war with Moscow, while China slammed NATO criticism of its support for Russia as biased and malicious. – Reuters

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday denounced NATO’s summit promise to grant eventual membership to Ukraine and said Russia should work towards the “disappearance” of both Ukraine and the military alliance. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden vowed on Thursday that the United States “cannot retreat from the world” and said under his leadership Washington will not walk away from support for Ukraine. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: This is cultural for Russia: words are worthless; what matters are actions that show appropriate respect, friendly or aggressive, in response to whatever actions Russia first offers. But that isn’t happening today. In turn, the Russians will keep trying to kill people, blow up factories, and do whatever else they feel like. And by the time Germany and the U.S. get a grip, they’ll likely be doing so on the top of their citizens’ body bags. – Washington Examiner

David Albright and Spencer Faragasso write: If corporations do not exercise due diligence, control authorities could add specific microelectronics to national control lists in order to force manufacturers to more tightly oversee their distributors and the end user (with license exemptions for countries that are strictly enforcing sanctions). They could also intensify fines for inadequate controls over items that help to kill people in Ukraine and elsewhere. In particular, these higher fines could be applied to inadvertent exports that end up in Russia. – Institute for Science and International Security

Michael Peck writes: All of which raises a disturbing possibility. If Western nations believe that Ukraine can eliminate Russian airpower on the ground, then there might be less urgency to provide the jet fighters that will actually make a difference. That would be a mistake. The air war will be won in the air, not on the ground. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Keith Johnson writes: Russia has always had its fellow travelers, especially since the Bolshevik Revolution more than a century ago; some of them were useful idiots peddling the Kremlin’s line around the world, while others were more idiots than useful. What is alarming today is that the idiots are becoming, in many cases, pivotal. – Foreign Policy

Middle East & North Africa

China said it is willing to strengthen implementing development strategies with Saudi Arabia, and intensify trade and investment exchanges, its commerce minister said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board has delayed consideration of an $820 million disbursement to Egypt until July 29 in order to finalize some policy details, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday, adding that such delays are not unusual amid difficult circumstances. – Reuters

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said on Thursday he will run for second presidential term in election expected on Sept. 7. – Reuters

Campaign posters have sprung up across Damascus as Syria prepares to hold a parliamentary election in government-held areas on Monday that is designed to renew the ruling Baath party’s grip on power. – Agence France-Presse

A Libyan political activist who was abducted by an unknown armed group in western Libya has been released, local media reported Thursday. – Agence France-Presse

A decision about how to solve the Hezbollah threat in northern Israel “will have to be taken very soon,” a senior lawmaker told European diplomats in the evacuated northern city of Kiryat Shmona on Thursday. – Times of Israel

Bilal Samir writes: Recent developments reveal that residents in Turkish-controlled areas of northern Syria are prepared to engage in an existential struggle if Ankara chooses to pursue normalization with the Assad regime. Furthermore, the existing divide among armed Syrian factions and their varying levels of compliance with Turkish directives raise questions about Turkey’s ability to control these groups in future confrontations, restructure them, and remove dissenting members and leaders. – Middle East Institute 

China

China warned the U.S. and its allies not to “provoke confrontation” after NATO took the unusual step of explicitly identifying Beijing as a threat to its interests. – Wall Street Journal

China’s tight bond with Russia is facing renewed condemnation from Washington and its allies after NATO issued its strongest accusation yet that Chinese technology is sustaining Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – New York Times

China’s leaders will seek to inject confidence in the economy at a highly anticipated meeting next week, but conflicting goals, such as boosting growth while cutting debt, may mean little progress toward implementing change. – Reuters

China has rebuked the European Union over a statement about the South China Sea, saying the latter ignored historical and objective facts of the testy issue and “blatantly endorses” what it called the Philippines’ violation of its sovereignty. – Reuters

Editorial: All of this is modest progress but is no reason to get triumphant. Most of the press oxygen this week has been absorbed handicapping Mr. Biden’s fate. The backdrop is a world that is looking as dangerous and volatile as the early Cold War years and whether the U.S. can produce a leader prepared to meet the moment. – Wall Street Journal

Keith B. Richburg writes: Hong Kong officials’ words belie their internal contradictions. They dismiss the expat exodus as wholly insignificant. But when outsiders say Hong Kong is becoming just another mainland city, they fire back indignantly — still keenly sensitive to any foreign criticism and eager to defend the city’s status as distinct from China. They are finding out how difficult it is to tell both stories at once. – Washington Post

Karishma Vaswani writes: Xi’s focus on the South China Sea, Taiwan and the Global South has made the West nervous, as has the appeal of Beijing’s political model for nations seeking an alternative path to economic success beyond the US. But that reputation is at risk of being tarnished by Xi’s insistence on doing things his way. He is getting sound advice from a wide section of Chinese society. He’d be wise to listen. – Bloomberg

Asia

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged on Friday to discipline military personnel who mishandled classified materials in a scandal that threatens to undermine Tokyo’s efforts to convince the U.S. and other allies it can be trusted. – Reuters

Japan warned on Friday that China risked escalating tension with Taiwan with an increase in military exercises that appeared aimed in part at readying Beijing’s forces for a possible invasion of the democratically governed island. – Reuters

The Philippines rejects the “use of force” to undermine its interests in the contested South China Sea but it does not want any conflict and has agreed with China to ease tensions in a contested shoal, officials said on Friday. – Reuters

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Thursday that his country needed to stand up for the international rules-based order as potential military flashpoints loom in the Indo-Pacific region. – Reuters

Australia said on Friday it had arrested a Russian-born married couple on espionage charges, alleging the woman who was an information systems technician in the Australian Army sought to access defence material and send it to Russian officials. – Reuters

Major Thai banks defended themselves on Thursday against criticism that they facilitated weapons purchases by the Myanmar junta, saying they lacked the capacity to investigate all transactions that may be used for such purchases. – Reuters

An Indonesian court on Thursday sentenced former agriculture minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo to 10 years in prison for corruption involving travel in private jets and jewellery for his wife. – Reuters

A court in Taiwan ordered a former vice premier detained while he is investigated for corruption, the latest development in the highest-profile graft probe in the democratically run archipelago since President Chen Shui-bian in 2008. – Bloomberg

Africa

Kenyan President William Ruto fired almost his entire cabinet on Thursday, after weeks of deadly protests around the country over proposed tax hikes and government corruption. – Washington Post

Sudan’s warring parties are in Switzerland for U.N.-led talks aimed at brokering possible local ceasefires to facilitate aid and protect civilians, but only one side showed up for the start of discussions on Thursday, the United Nations said. – Reuters

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has sacked the country’s finance minister who was just four months into the job, state-owned television reported, the sixth replacement in the post since 2020. – Reuters

The U.S. and other western governments criticized a controversial security bill in South Sudan that would allow the government to detain people without warrants, saying it would undermine open political and civil space ahead of the country’s elections. – Associated Press

Editorial: The trade numbers show that, for now, Africa remains more of an economic afterthought. The African Century — sometimes called a “youthquake” is coming. It has the potential to reshape the world economic order, whether the United States likes it or not. America had better get ready. – Washington Post

Cameron Hudson writes: And it could soon present a strategic crisis for Washington as the centrifugal forces of ethnic violence, political instability, and terror gripping the country radiate outward from the collapsing Sudanese state. Only a month into his mandate, Special Envoy Perriello remarked that the Sudan crisis was “barreling towards a point of no return.” Now is the time for the Biden administration to mount a serious response. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

United States

As President Biden met with world leaders at the NATO summit this week, his opponent, former president Donald Trump, was scheduled to meet with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban — the autocratic leader who, like Trump, has questioned NATO policy toward Ukraine and Russia. – Washington Post

U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday said the United States would meet again with European and Japanese leaders on how to increase their capacity to build weapons systems. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday placed sanctions on Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang that began in a prison and has spread throughout Latin America. – Reuters

The U.S., Canada and Finland will form a consortium to build icebreaker ships, a senior U.S. administration official said, a move intended to bolster the allies’ shipbuilding and counter Russia and China in increasingly strategic polar regions. – Reuters

President Joe Biden said European allies are prepared to cut investment to China if it keeps up its support for Russia, offering a warning after NATO accused Beijing of enabling the invasion of Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Hal Brands writes: Foreign leaders will pay painfully close attention to who’s up and who’s down in the corridors of power in Washington, in hopes that skilled advisers will mitigate any deficiencies of executive management. More profoundly, they may wonder if a political system that produces a matchup between these two candidates can still deliver effective statecraft in a demanding moment — or whether this election simply reveals a superpower that is, itself, past its prime. – Bloomberg

Minxin Pei writes: Thankfully US and Soviet leaders not only stepped back from the brink in 1962 but adopted policies to reverse those dangerous dynamics, most importantly through strategic restraint and recognition of each other’s vital interests. That’s one historical lesson American and Chinese leaders would be wise to heed. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: If Trump wants a nationalist conservative ally in Hungary, he’d be far better off looking to Orban’s former ally turned rising challenger, Peter Magyar. Unlike Orban, Maygar cares more about his country than his wallet and Xi’s affection. Unless, that is, Trump truly does believe there’s “nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orban.” – Washington Examiner

Eli Lake writes: Many of the Americans who block traffic and take over quads on behalf of the terrorists of October 7 are not taking their cues from Persian cyber-spies, but college professors and journalists. For generations these information elites have insisted that Palestinian terror is a legitimate expression of Palestinian dispossession. But the root cause is not foreign disinformation so much as domestic ideology. – The Free Press

Defense

A U.S. Coast Guard cutter on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across several Chinese military ships in international waters but within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, officials said. – Associated Press

From Ukraine to the Middle East, the Patriot air defense system is having a moment: a reliable American weapon downing enemy threats. But that’s also driving demand for missiles that the US defense industry is struggling to meet. – Bloomberg

The head of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program has approved a plan to accept the newest jets with a partial version of its latest software, paving the way for deliveries to resume after a year-long pause. – Defense News

The Marine Corps issued a new artificial intelligence strategy that is expected to guide the service’s efforts to integrate the technology across its enterprise, from the back office to the battlefield. – AIScoop