Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Britain, France and Germany warned Iran on Wednesday that its decision to restart uranium enrichment at 20 percent risked undermining hopes of reviving diplomacy when a new United States administration takes over later in January. – Reuters

Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20 percent this week, well in excess of the threshold set out in its landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Experts on the Islamic Republic told AFP Wednesday that the decision to take another step back from the tattered accord has vast-reaching domestic and international consequences for Iran. – Agence France-Presse

Iranian investigators probing the downing of a passenger plane a year ago are deliberately dragging their feet, Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) said on Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse

A year after Iran’s military mistakenly downed Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 with two surface-to-air missiles, the answers that have emerged from the disaster only seem to lead to more questions. – Associated Press

Iran said it successfully tested long-range unmanned “suicide” aircraft during its first major drone exercises this week, amid a tense standoff with the U.S. – Bloomberg

The FBI is probing the breach of an air traffic control system after a broadcast from an unknown source threatened to fly an aircraft into the US Capitol building late Tuesday as revenge for the assassination of a top Iranian official a year ago. – Jerusalem Post

Iranian parliament members submitted a bill last week which would obligate the government of the Islamic Republic to destroy the State of Israel in the next 20 years, the Iranian news agency ISNA reported. – Arutz Sheva

Nadav Hakham writes: The equation is simple: The West would rather ignore and repress what it knows about the regimes’ atrocities so it can quickly return to some sort of deal with Iran that will give the (false) sense that there is no nuclear threat to worry about – even if this means casting aside the very basics of Western morals regarding human rights. Consequently, unlike the devoted coverage of the Khashoggi affair, there is too little interest in a brutal assassination of the Iranian journalist who was murdered for revealing the truth. – Jerusalem Post

Israel

An Israeli military court on Wednesday found a prominent Palestinian activist guilty on six charges related to his participation in demonstrations in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron against Jewish settlements and alleged human rights violations. – Associated Press

The Tel Aviv municipality building will light up with the colors of the US flag following the riot and invasion of the Capitol building on Wednesday afternoon, Tel Aviv Mayor and Israelis Party leader Ron Huldai announced on Thursday morning. – Jerusalem Post

The event, in partnership with Sharaka, a group that promotes coexistence in the wake of the Abraham Accords, discussed the “business of peace” and looked at new Israel relations with the United Arab Emirates. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF has released archived documents, photographs and videos from the Gulf War, 30 years after it took place. – Jerusalem Post

The Israeli military has deployed air defense batteries around the southern city of Eilat in recent days amid concerns of an attack from the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday said it plans to knock down two floors of the building that was home to the Palestinian man suspected of killing Esther Horgen in a terror attack last month. – Times of Israel

A new defense system for armored vehicles, developed in part by a top Israeli defense company, was delivered in full to the US Army on Wednesday, according to an American contractor. – Algemeiner

Israel secretly delivered dozens of COVID-19 vaccines to the Palestinian Authority, Kan 11 News revealed on Wednesday. – Arutz Sheva

Herb Keinon writes: While one strong anchor to the relationship is a planned pipeline to deliver Israeli and Cypriot natural gas through Greece to Italy and further north into Europe, this latest deal is important because it adds another dimension to the relationship. If for any number of reasons the pipeline plan does not get off the ground, it is important that the relationship has other pillars on which to anchor relations as it faces potential storms down the road. – Jerusalem Post

Moshe Dann writes: Palestinianism – promoted in the media, mosques and schools to include anti-Jewish incitement, denial of the Holocaust and Jewish history, and rejection of the right of Jewish national self-determination – is the greatest obstacle to peace. The alternative is a true Palestinianism liberation movement dedicated to meaningful human values and creativity, free of the destructive and self-destructive agenda of terrorist organizations. – Jerusalem Post

Paul M. Schneider writes: But Palestinians cannot have it both ways. They cannot enjoy a right of self-determination in their own state while demographically threatening Jewish self-determination in Israel. […]Schwartz and Wilf make a compelling case: It is past time that peacemakers disabuse the Palestinians of any notion of a right of return. Until that happens, not much will change. Therefore, one hopes The War of Return will have a wide readership within the Biden administration. – Jerusalem Post

Leor Sinai writes: We all strive for something greater than ourselves.  Though worlds apart, we share common interests.  Who would have thought that citizens from the UAE, Bahrain, or Morocco, and Israelis would be considered part of the same Social Group and Interest? […]Insha’Allah, may it be Gd’s will, that we strive to build upon this common denominator, learning about each other and writing a new chapter for our peoples who have seen enough darkness to last a generation. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

Israel struck targets in southern Syria on Wednesday in the third such attack in nearly 10 days, state TV reported as military defectors said the missiles targeted Iranian revolutionary guard bases. – Reuters

The unveiling of a large statue in Beirut of an Iranian commander killed by the U.S. last year has sparked indignation among many in Lebanon — the latest manifestation of a growing schism between supporters and opponents of the Iran-backed group Hezbollah. – Associated Press

An arrest warrant was issued Thursday for outgoing President Donald Trump in connection with the killing of an Iranian general and a powerful Iraqi militia leader last year, Iraq’s judiciary said. – Associated Press

Following the November 2, 2020 terror attack in Vienna, ‘Adli Sadeq, a former official in the Palestinian foreign ministry and former member of Fatah’s Revolutionary Council, published an article titled “What Satanic Mind Spawned This Terror?” in the London-based daily Al-Arab. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Hezbollah has suffered devastating blows in the last year and could be furthered pressured in 2021, a study by Al-Ain media asserts. The article is interesting due to its optimism about Hezbollah being pressured. – Jerusalem Post

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry spoke with his Israeli and Palestinian Authority (PA) counterparts on Wednesday afternoon as part of an attempt to prepare for a meeting intended to “advance peace in the region,” according to a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry. – Times of Israel

Charles Thepaut and Pierre Morcos write: More broadly, the United States is contemplating a wider military withdrawal from the Middle East in order to focus on competition with China. Holding a serious transatlantic discussion about this strategic shift is therefore urgent, with the goal of formulating a smarter and more balanced model of military cooperation in the region. For some Europeans, promoting a more proactive defense and security role for the continent is still considered detrimental to the transatlantic partnership. Accordingly, Washington would be wise to explicitly encourage a stronger and more militarily credible European approach to the Middle East. – Washington Institute

China

The scientists are undertaking the mission in the middle of a geopolitical standoff between China and the United States, in which the Trump administration has imposed new restrictions on Chinese tech companies and accused Beijing of obstructing the WHO investigation. – Washington Post

China’s most famous billionaire has suffered months of mounting trouble, with regulators turning the screws on his tech empire. And now social media is abuzz with the darkest speculation yet: Is Jack Ma missing? – Washington Post

As democratic governments around the world reacted with horror to President Trump supporters’ storming of the Capitol, China’s official propagandists could barely contain their schadenfreude. – Washington Post

U.S. officials are considering prohibiting Americans from investing in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. , a potential escalation of the Trump administration’s efforts to unwind U.S. investors’ holdings in major Chinese companies. – Wall Street Journal

With tensions between the U.S. and China rising on many fronts, President-elect Joe Biden will take office aiming to align Western democracies to broadly pressure Beijing, a clear break with President Trump’s go-it-alone approach. – Wall Street Journal

British supermarket chain Marks and Spencer vowed Wednesday not to use cotton from China’s Xinjiang region in its clothes in response to the country’s alleged treatment of its Muslim Uighur minority. – Agence France-Presse

China should give access to World Health Organization (WHO) officials investigating the origins of COVID-19 “without delay”, Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne said on Thursday. – Reuters

China said on Thursday that the United States will pay a “heavy price” for its wrongdoing, after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it may sanction those involved in Hong Kong arrests and that the U.S.’ U.N. ambassador would visit Taiwan. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department plans to release as soon as Wednesday a fact sheet urging U.S. investors to comply with an executive order banning investments in alleged Chinese military companies, according to three people familiar with the matter and a copy of the document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

China said on Wednesday it would make a “necessary response” to a planned military dialogue between the United States and Chinese-claimed Taiwan, saying it firmly opposed the event. – Reuters

In its second reversal in three days, the New York Stock Exchange reinstated its decision to delist three Chinese state-owned phone carriers. – Washington Examiner

China seized upon the chaos at the U.S. Capitol as an opportunity to drive home a narrative of American hypocrisy, with state media casting the incident as “karma” and “retribution” for Washington’s support of global protest movements including those in Hong Kong. – Bloomberg

Asia

The mass arrests signaled that the central Chinese government, which once wielded its power over Hong Kong with a degree of discretion, is increasingly determined to openly impose its will on the city. – New York Times

Hong Kong activists say this week’s mass roundup shows that Beijing’s tolerance for democracy in the city is quickly narrowing, by branding dozens of opposition lawmakers who participated in political primaries as suspects in a plot to paralyze the city. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington is considering sanctions and other restrictions on those involved in the arrest of over 50 people in Hong Kong and warned it could target the territory’s economic and trade office in the United States. – Reuters

Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn does not need a visa to re-enter Germany, where the monarch has spent much of his time since taking the throne in 2016, the Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Hong Kong authorities awoke to a chorus of international condemnation on Thursday following the mass arrest of pro-democracy opposition figures under a draconian national security law that Beijing imposed on the finance hub. – Agence France-Presse

An American human rights lawyer who was detained in Hong Kong with scores of democracy activists and supporters as part of a sweeping crackdown was granted bail, his associate said Thursday. – Associated Press

Members of Indonesia’s anti-terrorism police squad on Wednesday shot and killed two suspected militants who they believe were connected to a deadly suicide attack at a Roman Catholic cathedral in the southern Philippines, and arrested 18 others, officials said. – Associated Press

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is threatening to scrap a key agreement with the U.S. military in an attempt to force Washington to provide his country with Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccines. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: China threw down the gauntlet on Wednesday with the arrest of dozens of pro-democracy politicians and activists in Hong Kong, and not only to those who value freedom in the territory. It was also an insult to the European Union just days after it approved a new investment and trade pact with China, and a direct challenge to President-elect Joe Biden. All of them must respond forcefully to China’s rapid and wrenching destruction of liberty in Hong Kong. – Washington Post

Brad Lips writes: My New Year’s wish is that in 2021 the Biden administration will win honors for providing the world an example of freedom, tolerance and the rule of law. The president-elect could begin by calling out the illiberalism of the Chinese government. Then he could follow the lead of the U.K. by offering asylum to Hong Kong’s people, including those arrested under the national-security law—especially democracy’s hero, Jimmy Lai. – Wall Street Journal

Timothy Mclaughlin writes: Though unofficial, the primaries may well have been Hong Kong’s last free vote, an act of resistance that—while lacking the violent flourishes of Molotov cocktails or water cannons that helped garner worldwide attention for much of 2019—showed both the potential power of an organized opposition wielding even limited clout in a system tipped steeply against it, and the authorities’ extreme fear of it. – The Atlantic

Europe

The European Union embarked on a trade deal with China believing that engagement with Beijing was the best way to alter its behavior and make it a committed stakeholder in the international system. But that was seven years ago. – New York Times

A judge in London on Wednesday declined to release Julian Assange on bail while he awaits a final resolution in the case to extradite him to the United States to face charges of violating espionage laws. – New York Times

Henry Olsen writes: China’s behavior also shows that they will use this influence to displace America’s. It has economically threatened Australia for that country’s tough stance toward Chinese power grabs. It has bullied U.S. companies when employees exercise free speech to criticize Chinese government acts, forcing them to bow to Beijing even when doing so violates democratic norms. It’s inconceivable that Beijing will suddenly reverse course and not use its economic leverage in Europe to advance its geopolitical aims. – Washington Post

Dalibor Rohac write: If the EU-China investment deal is an indication, many in the EU are keen to resume their pre-2016 modus operandi: doing business with all regimes around the world, no matter how unsavory, pontificating about multilateral causes du jour but letting the U.S. deal with the day-to-day maintenance of the rules-based order and the work of addressing acute geopolitical crises. Whether the Biden administration will acquiesce to such an arrangement remains an open question. Yet, betting that it will is not necessarily naive — just a bit craven. – Politico

Philip Stephens writes: Mr Macron can fairly argue that this was not the deal struck at the outset of European integration. In return for political legitimacy and economic access, the then West Germany offered France Europe’s political leadership. “Europe will be your revenge” then chancellor Konrad Adenauer promised French prime minister Guy Mollet when the British scuttled back to Washington after the 1956 Suez debacle. The role is no longer vacant. Berlin now calls the shots. Mr Macron deserves to succeed in his ambition for an internationally credible Europe but it will still need the US. – Financial Times

The Americas

The European Union can no longer legally recognise Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country’s legitimate head of state after he lost his position as head of parliament, the bloc’s 27 governments said on Wednesday. – Reuters

International critics of Venezuela’s socialist government have united in rejecting the country’s newly chosen congress as illegitimate, but used notably different language Wednesday in referring to the opposition leader they have long recognized as the country’s rightful president — hinting at potential divisions. – Associated Press

Two Canadian parliamentarians have been accused by a leading Jewish organization of adding “fuel to the fire of antisemitic conspiracy theories” after they shared misleading claims on social media that Israel was excluding Palestinians from its coronavirus vaccination roll-out. – Algemeiner

Ryan Berg writes: If the next administration has any hope of Central America rising above the chaos and another migration crisis, it should bring sanctions and indictments down on Merino, his Salvadoran collaborators, and many others in the region like him. The “Engel List” may prove to be just the nudge the Treasury Department needs to set Central America on a path toward the prosperity and rule of law for which it longs. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

The Justice Department has become the latest known victim of Russian hackers, who are engaged in an ongoing campaign of cyberespionage that has afflicted federal agencies and the private sector. – Washington Post

The Trump administration formally accused Russia of “likely” being behind the most devastating hack of U.S. government agencies in years. – Washington Post

The FBI is investigating whether the hackers behind a series of intrusions at U.S. federal agencies and companies also broke into project-management software created by the Czech-based company JetBrains in order to breach its customers, two people familiar with the investigation told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

The U.S. Department of Defense must determine the national security threat posed by quantum computing, as part of the new annual defense policy law. – C4ISRNET

Rob Knake writes: The challenge for the incoming administration will be to devise a response to the SolarWinds hack that is in some way proportional but that does not replicate Moscow’s bad behavior. Such a response will have to telegraph to the Russians which aspects of its hacking campaign were acceptable and which the United States is declaring out of bounds. But no matter what signals it sends or actions it takes, the Biden administration will struggle to shield federal agencies and private businesses from future hacking campaigns unless it implements the cyberstrategy first articulated more than two decades ago. – Foreign Affairs

Trump Administration

Donald Trump’s top National Security Council officials and a deputy White House chief of staff are considering resigning over the president’s encouragement of protests that led to his supporters storming the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

President Trump has signed an executive order asking Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to determine if the far-left group Antifa can be classified a terrorist organization — and to bar its members from entering the country. – New York Post

President Trump is “entirely unfit to remain in office,” a junior State Department official argued after a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol to oppose the affirmation of President-elect Biden’s victory in the 2020 campaign. – Washington Examiner