Fdd's overnight brief

January 5, 2026

In The News

Israel

By extending diplomatic recognition to the breakaway statelet of Somaliland, Israel has cut a deal aimed at sharing intelligence and securing the strategic waterways of the Red Sea—making the country a player in the Horn of Africa, where Arab countries are jostling for influence. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli forces shot and killed at least three Palestinians in separate incidents in the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis on Sunday, local health authorities said. – Reuters

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is deeply concerned by Israel’s announcement of a suspension of the operations of several international non-governmental organizations in occupied Palestinian territory and called for the measure to be reversed, according to a statement on Friday. – Reuters

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres condemned on Wednesday a move by Israel to ban electricity or water to facilities owned by the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency, a U.N. spokesperson said. – Reuters

Former Israeli hostage Romi Gonen said she endured repeated sexual assault, harassment and intimidation during her 471 days of Hamas captivity, speaking publicly for the first time about her experience and her fear of becoming a “sex slave” in Gaza. – CNN

Former hostages Gali and Ziv Berman detailed the morning of the October 7 massacre, their capture by Hamas from Kfar Aza, and over two years in Hamas captivity to N12 on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar met with the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis in Jerusalem on Sunday to discuss regional security and the future of Lebanon, the minister confirmed on social media. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF received its first domestically produced Ro’em (Thunderous) wheeled self-propelled howitzer, Defense & Tech by The Jerusalem Post has confirmed. – Jerusalem Post

Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump urging Hamas to disarm within “a short period of time” have been met with satisfaction in Ramallah, Palestinian sources told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

The Rafah Border Crossing between Egypt and Gaza is expected to reopen this month and be staffed by the Palestinian Authority, says an unnamed Palestinian source cited by Sky News Arabia. – Times of Israel

The IDF says it recently demolished a Hamas tunnel stretching two kilometers (1.2 miles) on the Israeli side of the Gaza ceasefire line in the Strip’s north. – Times of Israel

Deputy Palestinian Authority chairman Hussein al-Sheikh and head of the General Intelligence, Majed Faraj, arrived in Cairo today (Sunday) and met with senior Egyptian officials, as part of efforts to advance the “second phase” of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. – Arutz Sheva

Armin Rosen writes: Somaliland gambled that Western goodwill is the key to global acceptance and long-term survival. Israeli recognition is this approach’s biggest victory. Accusations that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, or that Somalilanders are betraying their fellow Muslims in forging an alliance with the Jewish state, matter in Hargeisa about as much as the prospect of poorly built Chinese highways once did. Pyrrhic economic gains and empty moral positioning mean less to Somaliland’s leaders than the necessity of determining their own destiny. One thing the Somalilanders and the Jews of Israel have in common is they see no alternative to living as a free people in their own land. – Wall Street Journal

Eliot Wilson writes: Netanyahu has made the first move. His motivation is irrelevant: it should prompt others to reexamine the issue. For countries like the United States and the United Kingdom (where there is a small but influential pro-Somaliland lobby), maintaining their existing policy resembles Einstein’s apocryphal dictum: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” Financial and diplomatic support has not made Somalia stable or prosperous, but a fraction of what has been expended could transform Somaliland. Recognition would be fair, just, effective and in almost everyone’s interests, so what is holding us back? – The Hill

Dov Zakheim writes: Thus far, Netanyahu has promised the two ultra-Orthodox parties a new exemption law, while not pressing especially hard to enact one. He knows that the parties will hesitate to overthrow him as long as polls show the opposition garnering enough seats to form a new government, because they will never obtain what they seek from a new centrist and mostly secular government. Netanyahu also knows that in the volatile Middle East, much can happen during the next ten months to improve his electoral prospects. And for that reason, if he can delay action on a draft bill while obtaining American support for a new attack on Iran, he may yet find a way to stay in office he has held for longer than any of his predecessors. – The Hill

Iran

President Trump’s threat to intervene in Iran’s protests carries new urgency for Tehran now that the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has raised uncertainty around how far the president is willing to go. – Wall Street Journal

Iran isn’t a typical candidate for a currency crisis. It is oil-rich, with an educated population and a glistening stock of foreign reserves. The issue is that its economic problems have a specific political source: Its leaders won’t contemplate dialing back their nuclear program, which they say is for producing cheap power, but which the U.S. and its allies fear is a cover for developing an atomic weapon. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump threatened to intervene if Iran cracks down violently on ongoing protests, putting more pressure on Tehran as it tries to contain discontent with its spiraling economy. – Wall Street Journal

A regime loyalist in Iran died Wednesday after he confronted demonstrators as unrest over economic problems took a violent turn, state media said. – Wall Street Journal

At least 16 people have been killed during a week of unrest in Iran, rights groups said on Sunday, as protests over soaring inflation spread across the country, sparking violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces. – Reuters

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) performed on Sunday several missile and air defence exercises throughout Iran, Iranian media reported. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s Defense Ministry Export Center, known as Mindex, is offering the ability to pay contracts in the form of cryptocurrency, “agreed upon in the contract,” the website states in its frequently asked questions section, verified by The Jerusalem Post on Thursday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has a back-up plan to flee the country should his security forces fail to suppress protests or desert, according to an intelligence report shared with The Times. – The Times

Editorial: Above all, Mr. Trump can enforce oil sanctions as he now is doing in Venezuela. When Iran’s “shadow fleet” can no longer take discounted crude to China, the regime will know he meant what he said. Iran is exporting two million barrels a day—20 times the “maximum pressure” target set out by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in February. The Islamic Republic is ideologically bankrupt, pushing Iranians away from Islam, and it has run Iran’s economy into the ground. There have been false dawns of protest before, but Iran’s regime is vulnerable. As the protest waves build, they expose the regime’s dependence on fear and violence. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: None of this means the regime is in danger of immediate collapse, though dictatorships often look stable until the moment their rule ends. The Ayatollah depends on oil revenue to keep his commanders loyal and troops’ rifles aimed at their own people. If the money stops flowing, the loyalties of the regime enforcers may change. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Beyond the moral case, hard-nosed realism makes clear that weakening Iran is the right move. The country props up Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and supplies the Russian war machine in Ukraine. Energy-hungry China, while not dependent on Iranian crude, likes having a diverse mix of suppliers. Trump is often knocked as an isolationist, but the reality is that he is comfortable intervening abroad when he senses weakness and an opportunity to advance American interests. The Islamic Republic won’t last forever, and perhaps it will survive this bout of discontent, but squeezing consistently will have positive knock-on effects for U.S. policy far beyond the Middle East. – Washington Post

Michael Rubin writes: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will see Khamenei’s collapse not as a warning about his own future, but rather as an opportunity to expand Turkey’s own revolutionary export and terror sponsorship. What will emerge is not a more peaceful Middle East, but simply a change in the flavor of the extremism most threatening to regional security and U.S. interests. A Time of Change in Iran? Chaos or Crisis? Regime change in Iran will be welcome. The devil we know is not always better than the devil we do not. But, any tendency on the part of the White House and Washington think tanks to see Iran’s collapse as a “Hail Mahdi” pass to security and a peaceful Middle East will be embarrassingly naïve. – American Enterprise Institute

Russia and Ukraine

A day before President Volodymyr Zelensky made his case for more American support at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort over the weekend, Russia slammed another wave of drones into a slice of Ukraine’s own prime beachfront real estate: the Black Sea port of Odesa. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday appointed Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the director of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, to head his presidential office, prioritizing battlefield knowledge and public popularity amid intense U.S. pressure on Kyiv for a peace deal with Russia. The pick also seeks to dispel concerns over the corruption scandal that ousted the previous top aide, Zelensky’s close friend Andriy Yermak. – Washington Post

Behind Moscow’s unproven claims that Kyiv tried to attack one of Vladimir Putin’s vacation residences this week lie far steeper hurdles to ending Russia’s war, none more fundamental than Ukraine’s unflinching desire to pursue an independent, democratic future tied to the West and Russia’s insistence on thwarting that dream to return the country to its own orbit at any cost. – Washington Post

An overnight Russian air attack on Kyiv and its region killed two people, Ukraine’s authorities said on Monday, in what appeared to be the first reported deaths in Russian strikes on the Ukrainian capital this year. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said he did not believe that an alleged Ukrainian strike on President Vladimir Putin’s residence took place as claimed by Russia. – Reuters

Ukraine has targeted Moscow with drones every day of 2026 so far, according to data published by Russia’s Defence Ministry, in what appeared to mark an escalation from earlier, more sporadic attacks on the Russian capital. – Reuters

Russian missiles struck a multi-storey apartment building in Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine on Friday, leaving the building in ruins and killing at least two people and injuring about 25 more, officials said. – Reuters

Russia’s defence ministry released video footage on Wednesday of what it said was a downed drone at a briefing intended to show Ukraine tried this week to attack a presidential residence and challenge Kyiv’s denials that such an attack took place. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday he had appointed Canada’s former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland as his economic development adviser, citing her experience in attracting investment. – Reuters

National security advisers from Europe and other allies visited Kyiv on Saturday to discuss security guarantees and economic support as a U.S.-led diplomatic push to end the nearly 4-year-old war in Ukraine intensifies. – Associated Press

Fareed Zakaria writes: Ukraine will be the big story of 2026. It will tell us whether the Western alliance that largely sustained international stability for 80 years can persist into a harsher century — or whether we are watching the unraveling of a historic arrangement in real time. The tragedy is that the choice is not between peace and war. It is between a peace that prevents the next war and a peace that schedules it. – Washington Post

Tom Rogan writes: Take the so-called Havana Syndrome issue. Here, Russia has redirected its deception strategy to make the U.S. deceive itself. Deploying boutique directed-energy weapon technologies, Russia has harmed hundreds of American diplomats, intelligence officers, and military personnel. And it continues to get away with doing so by using novel technologies to exploit a U.S. intelligence community and political culture that prefers the avoidance of political controversy over harder truths and ensuing confrontation. So, yes, Russia lost this gambit. But there is no question that another deception is waiting in the wings. – Washington Examiner

David Kirichenko writes: Unless Kyiv closes its mid-range strike gap with systems that can operate under sustained jamming and produce them at scale, it risks fighting an efficient but ultimately reactive war shaped by Russian adaptation rather than Ukrainian initiative. Battlefield demands will further accelerate the evolution of Ukraine’s drone wall into a more automated system of warfare, in which semi-autonomous drones increasingly hold the line. – The National Interest

Hezbollah

Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey gave Hezbollah a “final chance” to disarm and surrender its weapons to the Lebanese government, Saudi-owned outlet Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Wednesday, citing Lebanese ministerial sources. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF conducted a strike, killing two Hezbollah terrorists in al-Jumayjimah, southern Lebanon, on Sunday, the military confirmed on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

The day after elite U.S. forces captured wanted narco-terrorist and former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist movement Hezbollah will no longer have operations in the South American state. – Fox News

Syria

New Year’s Eve celebrations in Aleppo in northwestern Syria were violently disrupted late on Wednesday after security forces tried to arrest a man at a checkpoint spotted wearing an explosive belt who then detonated it, killing one officer and injuring two others, according to the Syrian Interior Ministry. – New York Times

Britain’s and France’s air forces conducted a joint operation on Saturday evening to bomb a suspected underground arms cache previously used by the Islamic State group in Syria, Britain’s defence ministry said. – Reuters

Syrian government officials held talks Sunday with the commander of the main Kurdish-led force in the country over plans to merge it with the national army, state media reported, adding that no “tangible results” had been achieved. – Associated Press

Syria started the process of circulating new currency bills on Saturday as the crisis-hit nation seeks to stabilize the economy as it recovers from the fall of Bashar Assad’s government. – Associated Press

Senior Israeli and Syrian officials will hold meetings mediated by US envoy Tom Barrack on Monday and Tuesday, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Turkey

Turkey will send a drilling vessel to Somalia in February to carry out the country’s first deepwater exploration project abroad, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he would have a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday to discuss peace efforts between Ukraine and Russia as well as issues surrounding Gaza. – Reuters

Turkish inflation slowed for the third month in a row, potentially allowing the central bank to maintain its downward interest-rate path in the new year. – Bloomberg

Yemen

With backing from Saudi Arabia, Yemeni government-allied forces recaptured an oil-rich region of their country this weekend from armed separatists who were trying to form a breakaway state. – New York Times

Yemen’s southern separatist movement said on Friday it aimed to hold a referendum on independence from the north in two years, as Saudi-backed forces fought to recapture areas the separatists seized last month in a move that triggered a major feud between Gulf powers. – Reuters

Oman’s foreign minister met his Saudi counterpart in Riyadh on Wednesday to discuss finding a political solution to the crisis in Yemen, Oman’s Foreign Ministry said. – Reuters

Saudi-backed forces spread across Yemen’s Mukalla after retaking the port city, which was seized by southern separatists last month. The capital of Hadramout province was retaken by Yemen’s internationally recognized government following days of Saudi airstrikes. – Times of Israel

Michael Rubin writes: Across the region—even in neighboring Oman—there is a growing recognition that Yemeni unity is a fantasy. Instead of instating on unity, neighboring states instead say they seek only consensus. Under such circumstances, a United Nations-organized referendum can advance security and stability far more than an empty mantra of unity. Northern Yemenis should not dictate to the south when they do not have their own house in order. If South Yemenis wish to return to the original idea of a Federation of South Arabia, then they should have the right to vote to do so under international supervision. – American Enterprise Institute

Michael Ratney writes: This conflict over Yemen is the biggest public crisis within the GCC since then. It seems likely that Saudi Arabia has been trying to resolve this quietly with the UAE over recent weeks. But for Saudi Arabia, the alleged weapons shipment to Mukalla was the straw that broke the camel’s back, leading it to air its grievances publicly and undertake military action. This is a dangerous moment for the GCC, and once again, the grouping has a great interest in de-escalating a potential crisis. Each day it goes on is a gift to Iran and other GCC adversaries in the region. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is quietly permitting some residents to buy alcohol, breaking a longstanding taboo as the Islamic kingdom looks to expand its tourism sector, attract high-earning expatriates and modernize its conservative image. – Wall Street Journal

Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center said on Wednesday it had finalized the arrangement of a $13 billion, seven-year syndicated loan to help finance power, water and public utilities projects. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: Put simply, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision to maintain the U.S. Embassy to Yemen in Saudi Arabia is to undermine Yemeni stability and encourage an order in which the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the Houthis rebound. Saudi Arabia may be a U.S. ally in a number of spheres, but its recent Yemen actions are an insult to the United States, and those Middle Eastern states that seek order rather than perpetual chaos. Perhaps, though, the silver lining would be spurring the return of the U.S. Embassy to Yemen, where it belongs. – American Enterprise Institute

Middle East & North Africa

Algeria sacked central bank governor Salah Eddine Taleb and named deputy governor Mouatassem Boudiaf as acting governor, state media said on Sunday, citing a presidential decree. No reason was given for the dismissal. Taleb had served as central bank governor since May 2022. – Reuters

Egypt and Qatar signed a memorandum of understanding to boost cooperation in LNG sales and imports, including terms for supplying Qatari shipments to Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and Damietta ports, Egypt’s petroleum ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

The Jordanian Armed Forces-Arab Army stated that it apprehended three individuals attempting to “infiltrate” the border in the Southern Military Region on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ushered in 2026 by hailing an “invincible alliance” with Russia and saluting his troops deployed to Russian battlefields—invoking a partnership that has fueled his growing defiance and confidence on the global stage. – Wall Street Journal

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the test firing of hypersonic missiles on Sunday, state media KCNA reported, as he cited the need for Pyongyang to maintain a powerful nuclear deterrent in its first ballistic missile test of the year. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Ju Ae, who is likely being prepared as his successor, accompanied her parents on her first public visit to the Kumsusan mausoleum to pay respects to former leaders, state media photos published on Friday showed. – Reuters

A local court in South Korea issued a new warrant to detain former President Yoon Suk Yeol for another six months, Yonhap News TV reported on Friday. – Reuters

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung arrived in China on Sunday as Beijing looks to deepen ties with the nearby country after heightened tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan, a self-ruled island it claims as its sovereign territory. – Politico 

China

China intends to keep playing in the U.S. backyard, Latin America. The Trump administration took veiled swipes at China in its national-security strategy with the vow to “restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere” and “deny non-Hemispheric competitors.” – Wall Street Journal

Chinese leader Xi Jinping struck an upbeat note on the world’s second-largest economy, saying Beijing will meet its 2025 growth target as it gains ground in its quest to become a leading technological power. – Wall Street Journal

China strongly condemned the overnight U.S. strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, calling the action “deeply shocking” and a serious violation of international law. The attack came hours after a Chinese special envoy met with the Venezuelan leader to reaffirm Beijing’s support for the imperiled regime. – Washington Post

Beijing is unlikely to lift its unofficial ban on Korean culture anytime soon, South Korean Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik said in a radio interview on Monday. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is on a state visit to China and is due to hold summit talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. – Reuters

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said on Thursday the island is determined to defend its sovereignty and boost its defence in the face of China’s increasing expansion, after Beijing fired rockets towards the island as part of military drills. – Reuters

Taiwan officials see Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuela’s leader as a powerful deterrent to Beijing’s aggression and a timely reminder of the US ability to defeat militaries equipped with Chinese-made weapons. – Bloomberg

Beijing deployed several warships, cutters and a bomber combat patrol escorted by fighters to Scarborough Shoal in a show of force against Philippine and American forces at the disputed South China Sea maritime feature. – USNI

China will almost certainly dominate the defense and security headlines in the coming months, as tensions continue to simmer in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. And while new flashpoints can always pop up, there are a few likely scenarios. – Breaking Defense

Anushka Saxena writes: For Xi Jinping, the stakes could not be higher. The “rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation depends on a military capable of winning “informationized wars” in the “new era” of China’s modernization. But as the 2025 norms make clear, the greatest threat to the PLA may not be an external enemy, but the internal “vanguards” who seem to have traded national security for personal gain. Since he has assumed power, Xi Jinping has aimed to target both “flies” and “tigers.” Now, it seems that the latter are finally coming out of the woods. – The National Interest

South Asia

President Trump hit India with 50% tariffs in 2025, one of the highest levels among U.S. trading partners. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to juice consumer spending and bolster India’s economy are showing signs of success, allowing him to hold the line in trade negotiations with the U.S. One advantage for Modi: In contrast to export-oriented China, consumer spending accounts for three-fifths of India’s economy. – Wall Street Journal

A Pakistani anti-terrorism court sentenced eight journalists and social media commentators on Friday to life imprisonment in absentia after convicting them of terrorism-related offences linked to online activity in support of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan. – Reuters

The United States could raise tariffs on India if New Delhi doesn’t meet Washington’s demand to curb purchases of Russian oil, President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. – Reuters

India is asking refiners for weekly disclosures of Russian and U.S. oil purchases, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, adding that they expect Russian crude imports to dip below 1 million barrels per day as New Delhi seeks to clinch a trade deal with Washington. – Reuters

China and Pakistan pledged on Monday to further deepen ties and expand cooperation, reaffirming to each other their historically “ironclad” friendship as signs of rapprochement between Islamabad and Washington grow. – Reuters

Asia

Myanmar’s military government will release 6,186 prisoners under an amnesty marking Independence Day, state media said on Saturday, a week after a multi-stage general election began in the impoverished Southeast Asian nation. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party is leading after the first phase of a contentious general election, early results cited by state media showed, in the first vote since a 2021 coup. – Reuters

A Molotov cocktail was thrown at the home of an Indonesian government critic, while others have received intimidating messages, rights campaigners said on Friday, warning of growing threats to freedom of speech in the Southeast Asian country. – Reuters

Malaysia aims to implement a slew of institutional reforms this year and next, including a two-term limit for the premiership, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Monday, amid renewed calls for sweeping changes to tackle corruption and improve governance. – Reuters

Japan is barreling forward with efforts to significantly boost its military capabilities to stand up to China’s growing threats by doubling annual arms spending. The goal comes as Tokyo’s main ally, the United States, pushes for more military assistance in Asia and a military hawk and ultra-conservative takes over Japan’s leadership. – Associated Press

Editorial: For five years, Myanmar’s civil war has stymied searches for a resolution. It’s logical to want to find a way out, to stop needless bloodshed, but recognizing an illegitimate military takeover that stages a sham election is not the way. The U.S. was instrumental in ushering in Myanmar’s decade-long transition to democracy, from 2010 to 2020, and helping the country has long enjoyed bipartisan support. Giving up now would be a betrayal of that effort, of Myanmar’s people and America’s principles. Other aspiring democrats would take note, corroding American power around the world. – Washington Post

Europe

The rise of the far right has hit German politics like an earthquake — especially in the former Communist East Germany and among voters under 60. But in the gritty Connewitz neighborhood of Leipzig, one of the biggest eastern cities, it’s hard to find young residents who voted for any party other than Die Linke — whose name means “The Left.” – Washington Post

A cargo ship severed an undersea telecommunications cable in the Gulf of Finland on Wednesday in what the Finnish police said they suspected was an act of sabotage that led them to seize the vessel. – New York Times

Britain should seek closer alignment with the European single market on an “issue-by-issue” basis when it is in the national interest, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Sunday. – Reuters

A hand grenade was found in a building entrance near a synagogue in the Austrian capital Vienna on Sunday, although police said early indications did not link the device to antisemitism. – Reuters

France reiterated on Monday its support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland following renewed threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to take over Greenland. – Reuters

Many households and businesses in south-west Berlin face days without electricity after high-voltage power lines were damaged by a fire which city authorities said Sunday was a result of a politically motivated attack by “left-wing extremists.” – Associated Press

Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin will visit China from Sunday and meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the first visit by an Irish leader in 14 years, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced Saturday. – Associated Press

Denmark’s prime minister urged Donald Trump to stop threatening to take control of Greenland as the US president’s move to run Venezuela set alarm bells ringing in the Nordic nation about America’s military ambitions. – Bloomberg 

The property of a German state commissioner for countering antisemitism was torched early Sunday morning, and a Hamas symbol was painted nearby, according to local media reports. – Times of Israel

Priti Patel writes: And fourth, we’d ensure that our military, intelligence and security services are resourced with the funding and powers to keep us safe and our Sovereign Defence Fund would counter the threats we face, dismantle terrorist plots and bring those responsible to justice. The world is entering another dangerous chapter which is why only the Conservatives would assert Britain’s global influence so we can protect our country at home and abroad. – Telegraph

Africa

Dozens of people were killed and several abducted when unidentified gunmen attacked two neighboring villages in Nigeria, government officials said on Sunday. It was the first large assault on civilians since the U.S. military bombed targets in the West African country on Christmas Day, claiming it was protecting Christians from Islamist militants. – New York Times

Botswana plans to open an embassy in Moscow soon and has invited Russian investors to cooperate on rare earths and diamonds, Russia’s TASS state news agency quoted Botswana’s foreign minister as saying on Sunday. – Reuters

Nigeria’s military urged civilians in the country’s northwest on Friday not to keep or tamper with unexploded ordnance found at sites targeted in recent U.S.-backed airstrikes. – Reuters

Somalia’s armed forces have eliminated 29 al-Shabaab militants in the town of Jabad Godane in southeastern Somalia, in coordination with international partners, the Defence Ministry said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters

A U.N. humanitarian team visited el-Fasher in Sudan’s Darfur region for the first time since a paramilitary force overran the city in October, carrying out a rampage that is believed to have killed hundreds of people and sent most of the population fleeing. – Associated Press

Michael Rubin writes: If Somaliland has no right to independence, then Djibouti should likewise disappear as an independent nation. Perhaps it is time to call Djiboutian ambassadors to foreign ministries and explain that the urgency of protecting Somali unity and Mogadishu’s irredentist ambitions require a sacrifice on their part. It may be a modest proposal, but should consistency not matter? – American Enterprise Institute

The Americas

Trump’s fixation on the country’s resources, expressed to allies after he took office for the second time, triggered behind-the-scenes jockeying among his advisers and oil lobbyists over the shape of his Venezuela policy. Trump made it clear he cared more about a bargain from Caracas that served his America First agenda, including cooperation on deportations and favorable oil deals, than pressing for a democratic transition.  Ultimately, Rubio and Trump’s other hawkish advisers came out on top after they convinced the president that Maduro was a drug-trafficking terrorist who wouldn’t leave power on his own. – Wall Street Journal

In a dramatic overnight operation, the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Saturday and transported them to New York to face federal charges related to cocaine trafficking. The mission was led by elite special operations forces and was supported by every branch of the U.S. military, as well as intelligence and law-enforcement agencies, officials said. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump ticked off a list of reasons for his decision to capture and arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He talked about the Maduro regime sending illicit drugs and gangs to the U.S. and nationalizing American oil-company assets. One thing that wasn’t mentioned: a desire to restore democracy in Venezuela. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. military action in Venezuela disrupted air-traffic in the country and flights slated to travel across the Caribbean over the weekend, stranding passengers in Puerto Rico and other parts of the region. – Wall Street Journal

Colombia’s resurgent militias—groups with thousands of fighters that President Trump calls narco-terrorists for shipping drugs to the U.S.—are battering this country’s strained security services with explosive-laden drones in attacks that have picked up in frequency and ferocity. Since April 2024, when the strikes began, the military says there have been some 400 drone attacks, killing 58 soldiers and police officers and wounding nearly 300, according to Colombian President Gustavo Petro. – Wall Street Journal

A day after President Trump declared that the United States planned to “run” Venezuela for an unspecified period, Defense Department officials said there were no U.S. military personnel in the country. – New York Times

A day after a blistering speech in which she accused the Trump administration of illegally kidnapping Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s head of state, the country’s new acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, released a statement on Sunday night striking a much more diplomatic tone. – New York Times

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States might launch a second military strike on Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro if remaining members of the administration do not cooperate with his efforts to get the country “fixed.” – Reuters

The United Nations Security Council is due to meet on Monday after the U.S. attacked Venezuela and deposed its long-serving autocratic President Nicolas Maduro, a move that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres views as setting “a dangerous precedent.” – Reuters

At least three people were killed in a New Year’s Eve attack on informal miners in Pataz district in northern Peru, local authorities and a mining firm said on Thursday, the latest in a series of attacks on small-scale gold miners in the Andean nation. – Reuters

Editorial: Much depends on whether the Maduro crowd fear a second U.S. military strike. Even more depends on whether the Trump Administration is willing to push for new elections. The U.S. needn’t back any candidate. But a democratic government of the kind that won the 2024 election, only to have it stolen by Mr. Maduro, would be a more durable ally. The Trump Administration talks about its foreign-policy “realism.” But if Maduro 2.0 remains in defiant power in six months, its gamble on his henchmen won’t look very realistic. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Millions are celebrating Maduro’s removal from power, and they are cautiously optimistic that freedom is within reach. But those sentiments could turn if they begin to perceive that the U.S. is keeping the remnants of the authoritarian Maduro regime in place while extracting the country’s oil wealth for its own benefit. The best way forward is for the Trump administration to consistently take the side of the Venezuelan people — and to make clear that the end goal is economic freedom and democracy, whatever messiness comes first. – Washington Post

Editorial: That’s a stretch given the extensive involvement of the military, and it’s good for democratic hygiene to scrutinize the decision. With tough decisions coming and many obstacles ahead, it’s fair to look forward. Yet it’s also fair to celebrate. For years, Maduro was a symbol of the false warmth of Latin American collectivism. Now he should spend the rest of his life in a humane American prison. His downfall is good news. – Washington Post

Walter Russell Mead writes: Further, the divisions in American society that Chinese and Russian propaganda and intelligence operations attempt to exacerbate at every opportunity are particularly acute in the Trump era. Countering the success of Operation Absolute Resolve will be Job No. 1 in Havana, Moscow and Beijing. Turning Venezuela into another quagmire will be the first and most obvious goal. Escalating the international conflict in ways that test American will and undermine President Trump’s hold on power will also be on the agenda. This will be another interesting year. – Wall Street Journal

North America

Cuba said on Sunday that 32 of its citizens had been killed in the U.S. attacks in Venezuela, including military or intelligence personnel — a rare public signal of Cuba’s importance to Venezuela and the Maduro government. – New York Times

Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted for an 11th straight month in December as trade uncertainty contributed to a steeper decline in output and new orders, data showed on Friday. – Reuters

Gelet Martínez Fragela writes: We hope Mr. Trump knows that Mr. Maduro’s arrest has reignited hope across Latin America—and that the hope will sputter out without further U.S. action. Cuba isn’t a separate case from the problems in Venezuela—it is the source. The regime that exported repression to Venezuela still holds 11 million Cubans hostage. Cuba’s freedom must be next—for the Cubans who never made it and for those who are still waiting, still waving and still believing that America won’t look away. – Wall Street Journal

United States

Zohran Mamdani became the mayor of New York City on Thursday, declaring he will govern “expansively and audaciously” and promising to make good on his pledge to lower the cost of living for New Yorkers. – Wall Street Journal

But during President Trump’s second term, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have been handed a powerful new tool to speed up arrests: mobile facial-recognition technology. Officers can simply point their phones at a suspect’s face, snap a picture and turn up the person’s identity—and often their immigration status. – Wall Street Journal

The massive welfare-fraud scandal in Minnesota dogging Gov. Tim Walz as he seeks re-election in a state that has prided itself on good governance is giving Republicans a potent line of attack against a critic of President Trump. – Wall Street Journal

Now Maduro, who was whisked out of the country along with his wife after a military strike early Saturday, faces the prospect of a trial in a New York federal court for drug trafficking and conspiring with terrorists. He could appear in court as soon as Monday. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump’s intervention in Venezuela will test Americans’ appetite for regime change, inserting a new and unpredictable element ahead of midterm elections this year that have so far been dominated by domestic issues. – Washington Post

Now after Trump ousted Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro on Saturday and declared the U.S. will “run” the South American country temporarily, Luzardo and other Venezuelans are pondering a different scenario: whether things might actually improve enough to return, or deepen the uncertainty around the future of their families. – Washington Post

Sen. Tim Kaine said he will force a vote next week to block further military action against Venezuela without congressional approval in the wake of President Donald Trump’s operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. – Politico

Editorial: Closer to home, has Mr. Mamdani visited public housing in New York? The New York City Housing Authority spent $1,973 per apartment to install LED light bulbs. If Mr. Mamdani wants to show the world that “the left can govern” and be an example for the world, as he said, he could start by making the city’s 174,000 or so government apartments livable. They’re nothing like his new home in Gracie Mansion. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: There’s always a risk of overcorrection. A rollback of humanitarian aid in 2026 risks worsening refugee crises that America is directly affected by, including relief provided to fleeing Venezuelans. It also comes as the administration has slashed other direct aid programs, including dissolving the U.S. Agency for International Development – which oversaw public health programs around the world – and ending bilateral aid support to countries such as South Africa. Countries, or billionaire philanthropists, howling about the cuts can always step up and fill the void. If China wants to act like a world leader, there’s nothing stopping Xi Jinping from chipping in more to support institutions like the U.N. – Washington Post

Allysia Finley writes: California’s Medicaid spending—which pays for Native American exorcisms, music lessons, cooking classes and many other nonmedical services—has ballooned by nearly 50% over the last two years. “Healthy living starts with a chef in your kitchen. Paid by Medi-Cal,” one company advertises. A state audit last month flagged it as high risk for fraud, waste and abuse. You don’t say. Say this for a union-backed ballot measure that aims to tax the wealth of billionaires to boost spending on Medicaid: It might awaken wealthy liberals to the welfare racket that masquerades as a public service. – Wall Street Journal

Michael Rubin writes: The Iranian gravy train has been greater and impacted the U.S. policy debate more as Iran’s fellow travelers have established think tanks and infiltrated top media outlets. Their free ride should be over. Securing internal Iranian documents and leveraging informants from the failed regime who can prove the complicity and corruption of American citizens or residents in regime propaganda should be a top priority for the United States internally as Iran simultaneously seeks to rebuild. Trump’s statement on Truth Social is important, but it is just the tip of the iceberg about what needs to come next. – American Enterprise Institute

Cybersecurity

Chinese cyberattacks on Taiwan’s key infrastructure from hospitals to banks rose 6% in 2025 from the previous year to an average of 2.63 million attacks a day, the island’s National Security Bureau said, adding some were synchronised with military drills in “hybrid threats” to paralyse the island. – Reuters

New Zealand’s health ministry will look into the cause of a cybersecurity breach of a privately owned website, which hosts medical records for roughly a third of the country’s population and what extra protections are needed, the government said Monday. – Reuters

China’s top-down approach has made the country the envy of much of the world when it comes to industries such as manufacturing and infrastructure construction. But AI—and the technological innovation it demands—is something different. “The Chinese government is struggling to figure out how to support” the AI sector, Paul Triolo, a partner at the advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group who specializes in Chinese technology, told me. The U.S. government, in contrast, “is trying to get out of the way and create an environment in which capital markets and these very innovative companies can run with the ball.” – The Atlantic

Tiana Lowe Doescher writes: The speculative optimism of AI that has driven the Magnificent 7, the companies that have invested the most in AI, to dizzying heights, has begun to pay off in the form of wildly juiced productivity. Trump’s AI optimism is no longer mere points on the board of the New York Stock Exchange, now that it’s actually spinning junk into jewels on the nation’s balance sheet. If this gamble continues to pay off, it won’t just save his presidency; it may very well save the American economy’s relevance in the new industrial revolution. – Washington Examiner

Defense

President Donald Trump suggested Saturday that the U.S. used cyberattacks or other technical capabilities to cut power off in Caracas during strikes on the Venezuelan capital that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. – Politico 

The Air Force in December said Northrop Grumman’s new autonomous drone wingman, known as Talon, is a leading contender to join its collaborative combat aircraft program. – Defense News

Transatlantic political turbulence could disrupt orders from European customers for US defense equipment over the long term, but if the last year is anything to go by, business is likely to be relatively predictable. – Breaking Defense

Officials in European capitals have said they need to procure systems quickly that have relevance on the modern battlefield, and Israel is well-placed to provide solutions that are often proven because Israel has used them in its multi-front wars. – Breaking Defense 

Kaush Arha writes: American exceptionalism, more than its raw power, has been the source of its stature and station in the world. American exceptionalism derives from holding itself to higher standards than other nations, friend or foe, a norm without precedent in the history of nations. The establishment of the G4 will usher in a new age of economic security and commercial diplomacy and reaffirm American exceptionalism, contributing to the sustained greatness of America, Europe, and a free and open Indo-Pacific. – The National Interest

Long War

The occasional terrorist acts flaring up around the world, often by self-radicalized Islamic State sympathizers such as the father and son who gunned down 15 people at the Hanukkah party in Sydney, overshadow the broader trajectory of political Islam in the Middle East and beyond. In a historic shift away from the lure of global upheaval and toward a more pragmatic coexistence with the rest of the world, including the West, it now largely follows Sharaa’s path. – Wall Street Journal

An 18-year-old Burger King worker intended to commit a terrorist attack with knives and hammers at a grocery store or fast-food restaurant in a Charlotte, N.C., suburb on New Year’s Eve, the FBI said on Friday. Prosecutors charged the suspect, Christian Sturdivant of Mint Hill, N.C., with attempting to provide material support to Islamic State, according to court documents. – Wall Street Journal

Islamic State-linked rebels killed at least 15 people in three villages in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo’s Lubero territory, two officials said on Friday, keeping up a pattern of lethal attacks targeting mostly civilians. – Reuters