Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran exported more oil in 2025 than it had done in years, smuggling crude in defiance of sanctions, mainly to China. At the same time, the regime’s profits from the commodity collapsed. – Wall Street Journal

Iranian security forces gunned down dozens of protesters trying to escape a devastating blaze in the Caspian Sea city of Rasht during a nationwide uprising earlier this month, according to four witness accounts provided to The Washington Post. – Washington Post

For more than 17 days, Iranians have withstood not only a brutal crackdown to quell nationwide protests, but also a near-total communications blackout. Now some Iranians, eager to reconnect with the world, are managing to gain sporadic but brief internet access. – New York Times

Enraged, the crowds began pushing their way into the hallway of the mortuary, cursing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — a criminal offense in the country — as security forces looked on. – New York Times

On Friday, Jan. 9, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered the Supreme National Security Council, the body tasked with safeguarding the country, to crush the protests by any means necessary, according to two Iranian officials briefed on the ayatollah’s directive. Security forces were deployed with orders to shoot to kill and to show no mercy, the officials said. The death toll surged. – New York Times

Iran executed two men for the 2023 bombing of a bus carrying pilgrims, identifying them as linked to Islamic State, the judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Saturday. – Reuters

The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on nine vessels of what is known as the shadow fleet and eight related firms, the U.S. Treasury Department said, as the Trump administration sought to escalate pressure on Iran over the recent killing of protesters. – Reuters

Iran will treat any attack “as an all-out war against us,” a senior Iranian official said on Friday, ahead of the arrival of a U.S. military aircraft carrier strike group and other assets in the Middle East in the coming days. – Reuters

An influential Iranian cleric warned on Friday that Iran may target U.S.-linked investments in the region in retaliation for any U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic, Iranian news agencies reported. – Reuters

The U.N. nuclear watchdog must clarify its stance on U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites last June before inspectors are allowed to visit those facilities, Iranian media on Friday quoted the country’s atomic chief as saying. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign minister launched a furious tirade on Friday against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after the latter commented in Davos that the deadly crackdown on protests in the Islamic Republic showed that if authorities “kill enough people,” they stay in power. – Agence France-Presse

Tehran deploys non-Iranian fighters to help crush demonstrations, as they are more willing to open fire on civilians, Roni Insaz, an Iranian-born former member of the IRGC, said in a 103FM interview on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

The United States’s attack on Iran may not be kinetic, but take the form of a blockade, leading Iran expert and senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Danny Citrinowicz, told 103FM in a Sunday interview. – Jerusalem Post

The opposition-affiliated Iranian news site Iran International reported Sunday that over 36,000 people were killed by the regime at the height of protests earlier this month, numbers similar to those also reported by Time magazine. – Times of Israel

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has gone underground, reportedly hiding out in a bunker out of fear of being wiped out by US airstrikes — as the USS Abraham Lincoln steams toward the Persian Gulf. – New York Post

Iranian security forces deployed unknown chemical substances amid deadly crackdowns on protestors in several cities earlier this month, eyewitnesses told Iran International, causing severe breathing problems and burning pain. – Iran International

Editorial: Airstrikes alone won’t bring down the regime — or make it behave like a normal country. But Israel and the U.S. have shown in recent years that bombing can cause significant tactical setbacks. And there is always more room for sanctions pressure. The Treasury Department announced Friday that it will target nine vessels in Iran’s shadow fleet, which transports oil to foreign markets in violation of U.S. sanctions. The president cannot maintain effective deterrence by turning the other cheek. How he responds is just as important as how quickly he does it. – Washington Post

Michael Doran writes: Whether Iran is a multiethnic nation or a Persian empire remains unknown — and indeed will remain unknowable until events force a reckoning. Trump’s next steps — whether to pursue strikes, sanctions or negotiations — could kick-start that process. Washington should consult broadly with Iranians of all ethnic backgrounds. It should also consult with leaders in the neighborhood who will live with the consequences of the coming crisis — especially President Ilham Aliyev in Baku, Azerbaijan. But above all else, Trump should resist anointing successors in Iran and design policy for uncertainty, not stability. It is going to be a turbulent time. – Washington Post

Stephen M. Flatow writes: But the moment of transition – when old restraints vanish, and new rules are unwritten – is when danger peaks. If the mullahs fall, Israel should hope for a better Iran. But hope is not a strategy: Preparation is. Because the day after Tehran will not automatically be the day of peace. It will be the day Israel must prove that it has understood history – and learned from it. – Jerusalem Post

Afghanistan

President Trump sparked outrage after he suggested that NATO allies avoided front-line combat during the war in Afghanistan, further straining an already tense relationship with some of the closest U.S. partners. – Wall Street Journal

For months, U.S. and Afghan officials have secretly negotiated the release of U.S. detainees — a priority for President Trump and a nonnegotiable prerequisite for any further diplomatic engagement with the Taliban. – New York Times

Blockchain-based cash transfers are not the kind of innovation that many people would expect from a country better known for its repressive Taliban leadership, which views the internet with suspicion. But in a nation that has largely turned its back on the world, an Afghan start-up is building tools that it hopes will transform how humanitarian aid is delivered in countries shattered by conflict. – New York Times

Britain’s Prince Harry said in response to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that NATO troops stayed off the front line in Afghanistan, that “sacrifices” made in the conflict by NATO forces “deserve to be spoken about truthfully and with respect”. – Reuters

Iraq

The alliance of Shi’ite political blocs that holds a majority in Iraq’s parliament has picked former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as its nominee for the post, it said on Saturday. – Reuters

Washington has threatened senior Iraqi politicians with sanctions targeting the Iraqi state – including potentially its critical oil revenues – should armed groups backed by Iran be included in the next government, four sources told Reuters. – Reuters

The United States, since its 2003 invasion of Iraq, has held effective control over the country’s oil revenue dollars, giving Washington extraordinary leverage over Baghdad’s affairs, with implications for regional dynamics involving Iran. – Reuters

“There is no interest or justification for the Iraqi government to send backup forces to Tehran, nor is Iran in need of extra reinforcement from Baghdad,” Sheikh Ghaith Al-Tamimi, a prominent Iraqi scholar of Islamic theology and the founder of the Iraqi Center for Diversity, told The Jerusalem Post in a recent interview. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

The International Monetary Fund has demanded amendments to a draft rescue law aimed at hauling Lebanon out of its worst financial crisis on record and giving depositors access to savings frozen for six years, ​Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said. – Reuters

Lebanon will need some sort of international force after the withdrawal of the United Nations’s UNIFIL mission scheduled for the end of 2026, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam argued during a visit to Paris Saturday. – Agence France-Presse

The IDF attacked Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure sites in several areas in Lebanon, the military said on Sunday. The military did not specify the exact location of the attack, but the IDF explained that it was in response to Hezbollah’s multiple ceasefire violations. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

The Pentagon foresees a “more limited” role in deterring North Korea, with South Korea taking primary responsibility, according to a policy document released on Friday, a move that could lead to a reduction of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula. – Reuters

South Korean former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan, a veteran politician and influential fixture on the country’s road to democracy, died during an official visit to Vietnam’s southern hub of Ho Chi Minh City, both governments said. – Reuters

South Korean authorities on Monday detained 55 of the 73 people repatriated from Cambodia last week as part of an investigation into suspected involvement in online scam operations, police said. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited an art studio on Sunday to guide the creation of sculptures to be displayed at a memorial for North Korean troops who died fighting overseas, state media KCNA said on Monday. – Reuters

Vice President JD Vance expressed hope that questions over U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, stemming from a mass data leak, could be resolved fairly to avoid tension, South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok said on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea placed overseas travel bans on three people as part of an investigation into alleged drone flights over North Korea that have deepened animosities between the rivals, authorities said Friday. – Associated Press

South Asia

Pakistan shut all major crossings along its roughly 1,600-mile border with Afghanistan in mid-October amid clashes with the Taliban-run government in Kabul. The sides eventually agreed to a ceasefire, but crossings remain closed to trade. It amounts to the longest border shutdown in living memory, locals say. – Washington Post

A Pakistani court on Saturday convicted a human rights activist and lawyer, Imaan Mazari and her husband on charges of anti-state social media posts, handing them sentences totalling 17 years, a court order said. – Reuters

Three men appeared in a London court on Saturday accused of being part of a conspiracy to target two opponents of the Pakistani government living in Britain and attack them on Christmas Eve last year. – Reuters

A suicide bomber detonated an explosive vest among guests at a wedding ceremony in northwestern Pakistan on Friday, killing at least seven people and wounding 25, police said. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: Close a deal with Europe, and the US will be forced to recognize that India has options and can act on them. And, incidentally, it will provide the Indian economy with a new direction for energy that has been frustrated by trade barriers erected by America against China. A dozen press releases over more than a decade have declared this deal would be historic. If so, it’s time to make history. – Bloomberg

Europe

President Trump’s overtures about acquiring Greenland are now reviving questions among the U.S.’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies over whether Europe can make enough of its own weapons to fight independently of America. – Wall Street Journal

After drawing a wave of backlash in Britain by saying U.K. forces stayed “off the front lines” in Afghanistan, President Donald Trump abruptly reversed course this weekend, praising British soldiers who fought in the U.S.-led war. – Washington Post

After President Donald Trump used his bully pulpit in Davos, Switzerland, to demand “the acquisition of Greenland by the United States — just as we have acquired many other territories throughout our history” — and then backed down on the same day, many officials here see a lesson for the European Union: Pushing back works. – Washington Post

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark arrived in Greenland on Friday for an unannounced visit, as the crisis over Greenland’s future and the alarm over American designs on it seemed to ease but not end. – New York Times

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it also tried to squeeze Europe by crimping natural gas flows. But increased shipments of liquid natural gas, much of it from the United States, helped ease the pressure. Now, smoldering tensions between leaders in Washington and Brussels could turn Europe’s reliance on American natural gas into a similar political pressure point, analysts say. – New York Times

Greenland’s capital restored power early on Sunday after a storm damaged a transmission cable and left thousands without electricity and heating through the cold winter night. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump by telephone on Saturday, with the leaders discussing the need for bolstered security in the Arctic, 10 Downing Street said in a statement. – Reuters

British finance minister Rachel Reeves will accompany Prime Minister Keir Starmer on his trip to China next week, underscoring UK efforts to strengthen ties with the world’s second-largest economy at a time of strained transatlantic relations. – Reuters

The European Union’s foreign policy arm has raised questions about U.S. President Donald Trump’s broad powers over his new Board of Peace, according to an internal document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday he would be ready to join U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace initiative for the sake of Gaza but could not accept the plan in its current form. – Reuters

As President Donald Trump and other top U.S. officials rolled through the icy streets of Davos this week, fear and in some cases loathing were mixed with resignation over the administration’s way of doing business. – Reuters

The captain of a tanker intercepted in the Mediterranean Sea by the French navy on suspicion of shipping oil in violation of sanctions against Russia was being held in custody on Sunday for questioning. – Associated Press

The European Union is willing to implement a sweeping free trade agreement with the Mercosur group of South American countries on a provisional basis, the head of the EU’s executive commission said Friday, despite a vote by the EU parliament to delay ratification for legal review. – Associated Press

Eighty-six people were arrested on suspicion of aggravated trespass after protesters breached the grounds of a London prison in support of an anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian hunger striker, UK police said Sunday. – Agence France-Presse

The US has asked Italy to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza as a founding member, people familiar with the matter said, as the Trump administration tries to bolster the credibility of the initiative. – Bloomberg

Hungary’s opposition Tisza Party would end routine vetoes against European Union decisions, signaling a potential shift in one of the EU’s most contentious diplomatic stances, should it accede to power. – Bloomberg

German authorities have arrested a Lebanese national on suspicion of being a member of Hamas and plotting attacks on Jewish and Israeli institutions in Europe, the BBC reported. – Arutz Sheva

A recent $610 million order placed by Denmark for air surveillance radars to be stationed across Danish territory was sole-sourced to U.S. defense giant Lockheed Martin in the “essential security interests” of the country, according to newly published contract documents. – Defense News

In a bid to bolster the country’s Black Sea coast defense capabilities, the Bulgarian government has approved a project to purchase the Naval Strike Missile coastal defense system for the nation’s military. – Defense News

Editorial: The Speaker’s message was especially important in contrast to Mr. Trump’s thoughtless gibe this week that in Afghanistan “we never really needed” the British. “They stayed a little back, little off the front lines.” The Brits were enough on the front lines that 457 of them died in the Afghan war, which NATO rallied to fight in response to the attack on the U.S. on 9/11. It is the only time in NATO history that the alliance has triggered Article 5 to assist a member under attack. British politicians across the spectrum denounced Mr. Trump’s comments, and understandably so. Mr. Johnson showed Britain that some leading voices on the American right aren’t writing off Europe and still value alliances in the common cause of defending liberty. – Wall Street Journal

Iain Duncan Smith writes: As if that weren’t enough, Starmer is trying to hand over the Chagos Islands, which include a vital U.K./U.S. joint military base on Diego Garcia, to Mauritius. China, a friend of Mauritius, must be smacking its lips at such weakness. All this shows, sadly, at a time when we should be building our defenses against the threat of totalitarian states, our prime minister has decided to throw the nation into a deeper embrace of China’s dictatorial and brutal regime. – Washington Post

Dov Zakheim writes: Trump’s withdrawal of his threats to deploy forces to Greenland prompted a sigh of relief throughout the EU. But it demonstrated that far too many NATO and EU members have yet to get serious not only regarding their NATO commitments but to supposedly even stronger undertakings when they signed the Lisbon Treaty. Whether they will get serious remains very much an open question. – The Hill

Agnia Grigas writes: From my current vantage point in Lithuania, on NATO’s eastern frontier, the stakes of stirring the waters among allies are clear. Central and Eastern Europeans remain among America’s most reliable supporters. But they also feel loyalty to Nordic partners, fellow Europeans, and other NATO allies. When Washington threatens partners, it creates confusion and anxiety, not security. Trump is right to see Greenland as critical to America’s and NATO’s future security. The Davos framework is a step in the right direction. But if he wants to turn it into a lasting agreement, he will need less hard-power signaling and far more charm. – National Interest

The Americas

Emboldened by the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration is searching for Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime by the end of the year, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

When Venezuela booted out American oil companies in a nationalization campaign nearly two decades ago, China stepped in. Now, Beijing’s foothold there is in doubt as the U.S. asserts new power over Venezuela’s oil patch. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuela’s interim government, in another sign of its willingness to placate the Trump administration, is receiving more deportation flights in the aftermath of the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro, according to U.S. officials. – New York Times

Secret recordings of Peruvian presidents are nothing new. Nor are corruption accusations leading to impeachments. Over the past decade, Peru has had seven presidents, none of whom has managed to hang on for longer than three years. One resigned within a week. The country’s current president, José Jerí, 39, who presided over the impeachment of his predecessor and who was then installed in her place last October, could join that list. – New York Times

The United States is pushing Bolivia to kick suspected Iranian spies out of the South American country and designate Tehran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist group, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the matter. – Reuters

Brazil will take over Mexico’s diplomatic interests in Peru, Brasilia said on Sunday, a couple of months after the Andean country broke off relations with the North American nation over asylum for a former prime minister. – Reuters

At least 104 people considered political prisoners by a leading Venezuelan rights group were released on Sunday as part of an ongoing release process, according to the leader of the group. – Reuters

The United States filed charges against the alleged leader of the powerful Ecuadorean drug trafficking gang Los Lobos, paving the way for his direct extradition from Spain to the U.S., Ecuador’s interior minister said. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is considering imposing a total blockade on oil imports to Cuba as part of possible new tactics to drive leadership change in the Caribbean country, Politico reported on Friday, citing three people it said were familiar with the plan. – Reuters

U.S. oilfield service company SLB said on Friday it can rapidly increase its activities in Venezuela, provided the appropriate licensing, safety parameters and compliance measures are in place. – Reuters

Colombian leftist candidate Iván Cepeda led voters’ preferences for May’s presidential election according to a poll published on Sunday, consolidating his status as a main contender. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump said US military forces used a weapon that he referred to as “the discombobulator” during the US operation in Caracas to remove former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power earlier this month. – Bloomberg

Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez said Sunday she has had “enough” of Washington’s orders, as she works to unite the country after the US capture of its former leader Nicolás Maduro. – CNN

Editorial: But what truly sets the Argentine president apart from other leaders is his desire to reduce his own power and control. “The most responsible thing politicians can do is to stop pestering those who are creating a better world,” he said in Switzerland. Few of his peers will agree, which makes his message all the more important. – Washington Post

John Sitilides writes: It adds that “we will not allow any foreign adversary to use force or establish a military base anywhere in the region, and will seek to reverse the expansion of all other forms of foreign military influence, including the spread of foreign security assistance, intelligence facilities, and facilities with dual-use possibilities.” Looking deeper into 2026 and beyond, the question remains: where will the Trump administration turn next in the Western Hemisphere? – National Interest

United States

President Trump declined to say whether the federal officer who fatally shot a man in Minnesota this weekend had acted appropriately and said the administration was reviewing the incident. – Wall Street Journal

A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration’s push to terminate the legal status of more than 8,400 family members of U.S. citizens and green card holders who moved to the United States from seven Latin American countries. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said the U.S. used a secret weapon he called “The Discombobulator” to disable Venezuelan equipment when the U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro. Trump also renewed his threat to conduct military strikes on land against drug cartels, including in Mexico. – Associated Press

Defense

The Pentagon struck a conciliatory tone toward Beijing in its new defense strategy, stating that its overarching goal is to establish “strategic stability” in the Indo-Pacific region and de-escalate tensions with the Chinese military. – Wall Street Journal

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is convening a rare meeting next month of dozens of military chiefs from across the Western Hemisphere, another sign of the region’s rising prominence in the Trump administration. Top military leaders from 34 countries, including nations such as Denmark, Britain and France that have territories in the area, have been invited to the gathering in Washington on Feb. 11. – New York Times

The Pentagon has been sending U.S. military assets into the Middle East this week, including an aircraft carrier group and its thousands of troops, as President Donald Trump indicates he is maintaining the possibility of strikes on Iran amid its crackdown on protests. – Associated Press

Rep. Jeff Crank believes in the “Golden Dome” missile defense shield proposal — but worries that the U.S. risks missing its moment to pull it off as Congress awaits a blueprint from the White House. – Defense News

Editorial: A $1.5 trillion budget request will be a heavy political lift, and to sell it Mr. Trump will have to level with the public that the U.S. military isn’t as dominant as he has claimed. He’ll have allies on Capitol Hill if he makes the case. The best way to go down as a peacemaker is by building a military no one wants to fight. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel P. Driscoll writes: We made great headway in 2025 to prepare our soldiers, improve their quality of life and reduce barriers — but we have only scratched the surface. These changes will manifest, they will compound and our Army will be stronger than ever. Our adversaries are relentless and will not hesitate to challenge our way of life. American soldiers stand ready to face that challenge, but they cannot do it alone. We must all ensure they are ready to fight, win and return home. – Defense News