Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel and Hamas are preparing for renewed fighting as the Palestinian militant group is refusing to disarm, a requirement that is holding up progress on President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. Israel’s military has drawn up plans for a new ground operation inside Hamas-controlled territory in Gaza, according to people briefed on the plans. – Wall Street Journal

Bangladesh said on Saturday it has told the United States that it wants to join the international stabilization force that would be deployed in Gaza. Bangladesh said its national security adviser, Khalilur Rahman, met U.S. diplomats Allison Hooker and Paul Kapur in Washington. – Reuters

Israeli fire killed at least three Palestinians in two separate incidents across the enclave, local health authorities said, as tension rises over continued violence since an October ceasefire. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke over the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, a U.S. official said, without providing additional details. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview published on Friday that he hopes to “taper off” Israeli dependence on U.S. military aid in the next decade. – Reuters

Israel is “closely monitoring” the fallout from widespread Iranian protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to attack Iran could escalate the protests within the borders of the Islamic Republic into a regional war. – Associated Press

Hamas said Sunday it will dissolve its existing government in Gaza once a Palestinian technocratic leadership committee takes over the territory, as mandated under the U.S.-brokered peace plan. But the group gave no specifics on when the change will occur. – Associated Press

Over two dozen families from one of the few remaining Palestinian Bedouin villages in the central West Bank have packed up and fled their homes in recent days, saying harassment by Jewish settlers living in unauthorized outposts nearby has grown unbearable. – Associated Press

Israel and Germany signed a security pact Sunday to expand cooperation on counterterrorism and cyber defense, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said, citing threats posed by Iran and its allies. – Agence France-Presse

The UN’s beleaguered agency for Palestinian refugees said that a “dire” financial crisis had forced it to remove hundreds of Gazan staff members who had left the territory from its payroll. – Agence France-Presse

Palestinian Authority Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh met Friday with former UN Middle East envoy Nickolay Mladenov, who is expected to serve as a top official for the supervisory US‑backed Board of Peace in Gaza. – Agence France-Presse

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi in Jerusalem on Sunday to discuss continued cooperation between Israel and Japan, the Prime Minister’s Office stated. – Jerusalem Post

Argentina is reportedly delaying moving its embassy to Jerusalem due to bilateral tensions relating to an Israeli company’s plans to drill oil from a field near the Falkland Islands. This was first reported by N12 on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir’s view is that the wave of Iranian protests and crackdown by the regime is an internal Iranian matter that does not relate to Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Samoa will open an embassy in Jerusalem in 2026, Samoan Prime Minister Laoli Lauatea Schmidt told Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in a phone conversation, Israel’s Foreign Ministry confirmed on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli troops on Saturday shot and “neutralized” a Palestinian who accelerated his car toward soldiers in the Haret al-Sheikh neighborhood of Hebron, though it was unclear whether it was an attempted ramming attack, the military said. – Times of Israel

The Hamas terror group has decided to delay elections for leader of its political wing, Asharq Al-Awsat reported, citing senior Hamas sources. – Arutz Sheva

Eric R. Mandel writes: What comes next for Gaza may be driven by illusory signs of progress, such as Hamas allowing “independent” Palestinians to manage daily affairs while it governs from the shadows through intimidation. The reality on the ground suggests that this would be more illusion than substance. And it is that reality, not diplomatic theory, that should guide decisions about Gaza’s future. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Russia launched its nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile against Ukraine for only the second time, hitting the western region of Lviv near the Polish border overnight in a significant escalation of its aerial campaign as another wave of drones and missiles struck the capital, Kyiv. – Wall Street Journal

Fire Point already has developed Ukraine’s FP-1 drone. With a range of up to 870 miles, the drone has become the workhorse of Kyiv’s campaign to hobble Russia’s oil industry. Ukraine has carried out more than 100 strikes on Russian energy facilities since August, causing billions of dollars in damage and, at one point, knocking out as much as one-fifth of Russia’s oil-refining capacity. – Wall Street Journal

Russia launched an overnight air attack on Kyiv, sparking a fire in one of the city’s districts, Ukrainian military said on Monday. – Reuters

Russia has attacked two foreign-flagged civilian vessels with drones in the southern Odesa region, killing a Syrian national and injuring another, Ukrainian officials said on Friday. – Reuters

Britain said on Sunday discussions with other NATO members on deterring Russian activity in the Arctic were “business as usual”, after media reports the UK was in talks with its European allies about deploying a military force to Greenland. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone strike killed one person and wounded three others in the Russian city of Voronezh, local officials said Sunday. Meanwhile, thousands of residents were still without power in Kyiv, following an intense Russian bombardment. – Associated Press

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Friday he’s discussing a potential free-trade agreement with the US as part of a broader prosperity package aimed at propelling the country’s recovery after the war.- Bloomberg

Kyiv’s mayor made an unprecedented call to residents to seek temporary refuge outside the Ukrainian capital after a Russian aerial barrage triggered widespread shortages amid frigid temperatures. – Bloomberg

Amy Knight writes: Mr. Putin is able to stifle ordinary Russians’ discontent with the war by employing the state’s powerful repressive measures. But he can’t continue this conflict without support from his Kremlin entourage. That support could be undermined if the U.S. provided Ukraine with the arms it needs to counter Russia’s drones and missiles. So challenged, war-weary colleagues—and oligarch cronies—might well pressure Mr. Putin to come to the table with a peace plan that Ukraine could accept. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: If you want a reminder of why Putin went to war, read the 7,400-word screed of historical fantasies and resentments he delivered in a televised address three days before the invasion. So yes, it would make no sense for Putin to restart his war in Ukraine, or to launch new declared or hybrid wars aimed at collapsing NATO. But invading Ukraine didn’t add up either. With the conventional, let alone nuclear, capabilities still at his disposal, it’s plain foolish to act based on assumptions about what he intends. – Bloomberg 

Lebanon

The Israel Defense Forces said it struck Hezbollah targets in several areas of Lebanon on Friday, a day after the Lebanese army said it had completed the first phase of its plan to disarm the terror group in Lebanon’s south. – Times of Israel

Israel on Sunday carried out major airstrikes against seven Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, using more than 30 munitions in two waves of strikes, the military said. – Times of Israel

The Lebanese Armed Forces announced Thursday that it had taken operational control of the south of the country and successfully completed the first phase of its operation to disarm Hezbollah — a claim that experts say is unlikely to satisfy Israel and could risk further escalation. – Jewish Insider

Yemen

A conflict that for weeks has pitted Yemenis against each other and driven a rift between two powerful Gulf allies appeared to come to a head on Friday, when an official from a separatist faction at the heart of the row announced that the group was disbanding. – New York Times

Thousands of people took to the streets of Aden in southern Yemen on Saturday in support of the country’s main separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council, which denied it was planning to disband. – Reuters

Yemen completed on Saturday the evacuation of more than 600 tourists who had been stranded on the remote Yemeni island of Socotra after the United Arab Emirates withdrew its troops from Yemen last week amid a rift with Saudi Arabia. – Reuters

Yemen’s main separatist group appeared split on Friday as some members announced it was disbanding, reflecting a feud between Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that was blown into the open by a separatist advance last month. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Korean authorities have launched an investigation focused on the possibility civilians may have flown drones that North Korea said violated its airspace, the Defence Ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

North Korea has lashed out at a special sanctions monitoring team composed of multiple countries, calling its activities “illegal” and irrelevant to the United Nations, state media KCNA reported on Monday. – Reuters

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is set for a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday, a week after one with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as Seoul seeks to balance ties with both neighbours. – Reuters

North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong Un, urged South Korea to investigate recent drone incidents over North Korean airspace, in a statement carried by state media KCNA on Sunday. – Reuters

A South Korean court trying former President Yoon Suk Yeol on insurrection charges put off a sentencing request till next week after a marathon session on Friday, in a case that could give him the death penalty over his failed martial law bid in 2024. – Reuters

South Asia

Myanmar will face accusations Monday it is responsible for genocide against the Rohingya ethnic minority at the top court of the United Nations, as long-awaited hearings are set to begin. – Associated Press

Supporters of Nepal’s deposed royal family rallied in the capital on Sunday demanding the restoration of the monarchy ahead of March elections. – Associated Press

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz discussed closer business and defense ties with India in his first trip to Asia, aiming to bolster Europe’s biggest economy as tensions with its main trading partners China and US grow. – Bloomberg

Editorial: For five years, Myanmar’s civil war has stymied searches for a resolution. It’s logical to want to find a way out, to stop needless bloodshed, but recognizing an illegitimate military takeover that stages a sham election is not the way. The U.S. was instrumental in ushering in Myanmar’s decade-long transition to democracy, from 2010 to 2020, and helping the country has long enjoyed bipartisan support. Giving up now would be a betrayal of that effort, of Myanmar’s people and America’s principles. Other aspiring democrats would take note, corroding American power around the world. – Washington Post

Rana Ayyub writes: India is not some authoritarian outlier. It is a competitive electoral democracy with courts, a free press and an active civil society. And yet it has managed to normalize one of the most expansive surveillance architectures in the world. That is precisely why its trajectory should concern the world. India offers a preview of the political, social and democratic costs of letting state access to digital infrastructure expand unchecked. – Washington Post

Europe

The Trump administration says it needs to own Greenland to ensure the nation’s northern frontier is adequately protected. So far it is unclear how President Trump will go about trying to take control of the island, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. – Wall Street Journal

Sweden is highly critical of the “threatening rhetoric” against Greenland and Denmark from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Sunday. – Reuters

Venezuela has released Italian citizens Alberto Trentini and Mario Burlo from prison, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Monday, adding that a plane was on its way from Rome to take them home. – Reuters

The French Socialist party will not vote in favour of two no-confidence motions filed by far-right and far-left opposition parties over France’s failure to block the EU’s Mercosur trade deal, its leader said on Sunday, giving some breathing space to the country’s fragile government. – Reuters

Sweden will spend 15 billion Swedish crowns ($1.6 billion) on air defence aimed at primarily protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure, the government said on Sunday. – Reuters

Greenland’s harsh environment, lack of key infrastructure and difficult geology have so far prevented anyone from building a mine to extract the sought-after rare earth elements that many high-tech products require. Even if President Donald Trump prevails in his effort to take control of the Arctic island, those challenges won’t go away. – Associated Press

Italy on Friday gave crucial support to plans by the European Union to seal a huge free trade deal with five South American nations neighboring Venezuela that has been negotiated for over 25 years. – Associated Press

A group of European countries, led by the UK and Germany, is discussing plans for a military presence in Greenland to show US President Donald Trump that the continent is serious about Arctic security and to try to tamp down American threats to take over the self-ruling Danish territory. – Bloomberg

The Netherlands may soon have a minority government after the leaders of three political parties announced on Friday that they would continue coalition talks. – Politico

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday called on Europe to appoint a special envoy to talk to Russia, as efforts continue to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. – Politico

Poland’s nationalist President Karol Nawrocki on Friday sided with his ally U.S. President Donald Trump to veto legislation on enforcing the EU’s social media law, which is hated by the American administration. – Politico

EU countries should weigh whether to set up a combined military force that could eventually replace US troops in Europe, the bloc’s defense chief said Sunday. – Agence France-Presse

Demonstrators rallied in London, Paris and Istanbul on Sunday in support of protests in Iran that have been countered with a deadly crackdown by the country’s security forces. – Agence France-Presse

Martin Ivens writes: Unlike the laggard leaders of Britain, France and Italy, Merz starts with the advantage of a smaller national debt. Germany and France are also launching surprisingly popular schemes to get young people to volunteer for a year’s training in the armed forces. Britain’s equivalent program is negligible. After the rogue colossus’s recent action in Venezuela, some Labour MPs have been demanding that Starmer makes a gesture of defiance against Trump. But they’re hardly clamoring for the defense budgets that would strengthen his diplomatic hand. The buck stops with the prime minister, though. It is his job to tell his party and voters why guns must sometimes come before butter. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Venezuela’s acting president and its top opposition leader are in a high-stakes race to get President Trump’s backing as Washington moves to remake Venezuela’s future, from its government to its energy sector. – Wall Street Journal

This week, the remnants of Maduro’s regime began letting a trickle of political prisoners—just nine as of Friday—out of the Helicoide and other prisons, with hundreds still languishing. Regime officials said more would be freed as a gesture of peace as Caracas looks to appease the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said he might block Exxon Mobil from drilling in Venezuela after the company’s top executive publicly acknowledged the barriers involved in doing business in the country. – Wall Street Journal

Nicolás Maduro helped make tether the world’s dominant stablecoin. And with the former Venezuelan leader now sitting in a Brooklyn jail, the cryptocurrency’s central role in his nation’s economy is back in the spotlight. – Wall Street Journal

As they have done during many other high-profile and contentious news events, such as the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign, Russia and China have launched influence operations to quickly capitalize on controversy — this time surrounding the U.S. operation to seize the Venezuelan president — by spreading conspiracy theories, inflammatory claims, manipulated media or disingenuous content, researchers said. – Washington Post

At least 11 oil tankers under U.S. sanctions were spotted this week well beyond Venezuelan waters, according to satellite-imagery analysis, having fled the maritime blockade that President Donald Trump imposed as part of the administration’s pressure campaign against the government there. – Washington Post

On Christmas Eve, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, second-in-command to the pope and a longtime diplomatic mediator, urgently summoned Brian Burch, the U.S. ambassador to the Holy See, to press for details on America’s plans in Venezuela, according to government documents obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

President Trump prodded American energy executives to quickly tap Venezuela’s vast oil reserves on Friday, hours after the United States military intercepted another tanker carrying Venezuelan oil. – New York Times

Mr. Maduro declared that he had secured his third term, even though official tallies from voting machines collected by the opposition parties clearly showed he had lost decisively. – New York Times

Nicaragua’s government announced on Saturday that it had freed dozens of people from its national penitentiary system, a day after the United States demanded the release of more than 60 political prisoners in the country. –Reuters

Brazil will return to Argentina the responsibility for its diplomatic representation and custody of its embassy in Venezuela, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry confirmed late on Saturday. – Reuters

Argentina has repaid the United States for a currency swap framework it provided to the South American country last year to stabilize its economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Argentina’s central bank said on Friday. – Reuters

Five human heads were found hanging from ropes on a beach in southwestern Ecuador, police said on Sunday, as the country reels from a wave of violence related to drug trafficking. – Associated Press

Nicaragua’s Interior Ministry said Saturday the country would release dozens of prisoners, as the United States ramped up pressure on leftist President Daniel Ortegaa week after it ousted former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. – Associated Press

Venezuela said the country is “in absolute calm, peace and stability” as the US urged its citizens to leave and the opposition reported the death of a political prisoner. – Bloomberg

Jason Willick writes: But legal concepts are easier to manipulate than Venezuela’s political institutions, and Trump is right to be wary of lunging for regime change. Instead he has simply flipped the tables in the negotiations with a thuggish regime. Trump is more impulsive than the foreign-policy establishment would prefer. But insofar as that establishment would prefer a more extensive military deployment to safeguard democracy in Venezuela, Trump’s approach seems sober and judicious. – Washington Post

Mike Pence writes: The Venezuelan people now stand at the threshold of a remarkable opportunity. They deserve a rebirth of freedom — a new Venezuela governed by Venezuelans, rooted in the recognition of God-given liberties, committed to free markets and sustained by free and fair elections. They deserve a future defined not by fear but by hope. Today, thanks to President Trump and the brave men and women of our armed forces, that future is within reach. Libertad can finally be restored. And as freedom takes root again in Venezuela, it will strengthen security and prosperity across our entire hemisphere — just as America has always stood ready to do. – Fox News

Mike Pompeo writes: This isn’t regime change – it’s recovering Venezuela’s existing constitutional order, which was trampled upon by the illegitimate Maduro regime, but is in fact the country’s true legal governing authority. And from a position of pure self-interest, it’s the only way to ensure that the most pro-American, pro-free market voices take power in Venezuela, and prevent our adversaries from regaining their foothold in our hemisphere. None of this will be easy. But if the administration wants to maximize the gains of the past week, committing to a roadmap that empowers Venezuela’s legitimate democratic opposition is the only way forward.  – Fox News

Yoni Michanie writes: Critics will continue debating the legality and wisdom of the Maduro extraction. But the strategic reality is clear: In a single night, the United States dismantled a decade-long effort by Russia, Iran, and China to undermine American influence in Latin America. That represents a genuine victory in the broader competition between democracies and autocracies for global influence – and one America’s adversaries will not soon forget. – Jerusalem Post

United States

Vice President JD Vance served in the Iraq War and came home a sharp critic of foreign military interventions, saying that too often Washington policymakers lose sight of American interests when they entangle themselves in faraway wars. – Washington Post

Politically connected U.S. business interests are searching for the fastest route to Caracas to start vetting investment opportunities in oil- and resource-rich Venezuela, where the economy could be primed to open up after President Donald Trump ordered the removal of leader Nicolás Maduro. – Washington Post

President Donald Trump said he would accept the Nobel Peace Prize if this year’s prize winner, María Corina Machado, offered it to him when she meets with him next week, but Nobel officials quickly announced Friday that the prize may not be shared or transferred. – Washington Post

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will urge Group of Seven nations and others to step up their efforts to reduce reliance on critical minerals from China when he hosts a dozen top finance officials on Monday, a senior U.S. official said. – Reuters

A truck plowed into a crowd gathered in Los Angeles to show support for Iranian protesters, the KNBC news outlet reported on Sunday. The outlet reported that hundreds of people marched in Westwood, a Los Angeles suburb. It was not clear if there were any injuries. – Reuters

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is sending “hundreds” more officers to Minnesota, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in remarks that aired on Sunday, after tens of thousands of people marched through Minneapolis to protest the fatal shooting of a woman by an immigration agent. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump said there is no room in his MAGA movement or the Republican Party for antisemites. – Times of Israel

The Department of Energy is confident in its ability to reach the goals laid out by President Donald Trump’s Genesis Mission executive order, according to Under Secretary for Science Darío Gil, who spoke this week at the Consumer Technology Association’s trade show. – Fedscoop

Editorial: Mayor Mamdani stayed silent about the incidents until he was asked in-person Friday about the pro-Hamas chants in Queens. “That language has no place in New York City,” he said. But New York Jews expect to experience more such harassment because protesters and left-wing union organizers are emboldened by knowledge of the mayor’s sympathies. Mr. Mamdani and his socialist party blamed Israel, not Hamas, on Oct. 8, 2023. – Wall Street Journal

Walter Russell Mead writes: Israeli or American attacks on Iran could fail, leaving the mullahs in power and White House prestige badly dented. Key allies in Europe and Asia could be so deeply alienated by erratic policymaking, angry rhetoric and contempt for their interests that the foundations of American power could be irretrievably weakened. A MAGA revolt could break or at least compromise Mr. Trump’s power over the GOP. If Mr. Trump fails, his successors will struggle to clean up the mess he leaves behind. If he succeeds, he will have built a new world. In the moment of maximum drama and uncertainty in which we now live, nobody knows what the outcome will be. Your Global View columnist is only confident that, whatever is coming next, it won’t be boring. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

In response to the Trump administration’s targeting of Venezuelan oil exports, the U.S. Coast Guard plans to ramp up its capacity for inspecting and repairing tanker vessels it has seized at sea, according to correspondence reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

U.S. forces boarded another oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea on Friday, the U.S. military said, as the Trump administration targets sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela as part of a broader effort to take control of the South American country’s oil. – Associated Press

Navy pilots have successfully completed training to wield multiple drones from the cockpits of F-35 Lightning II fighter planes using touchscreen tablets. – Defense News

The Department of the Air Force has named five officials to lead some of its most critical programs as its first portfolio acquisition executives. The executives will have more authority to make important decisions and speed up the procurement process. – Defense News

The Space Force today announced awards to SpaceX for five launches of a total of 44 missile warning/tracking and fire control satellites for the Space Development Agency (SDA), as well as for an undisclosed number of launches for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). – Breaking Defense

To circumvent ever-more pervasive jamming of GPS satellite signals, the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DUI) is launching a program to mature magnetic navigation (magnav) systems. – Breaking Defense

The National Security Agency on Friday announced Tim Kosiba as its deputy director, nine months after the Trump administration axed his predecessor — reportedly at the behest of a far-right activist. – Defensescoop

James Holmes writes: Whether a warship warrants classification as a battleship absent armor sheathing is worth pondering when evaluating the Trump class. Call me a cranky old battleship sailor, which I am. But to award the Trump class the title of battleship, I would prefer a far more Mahanian mix of offensive and defensive armament combined with armor comparable to that shielding a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier’s innards. As a crude standard, one imagines that Mahan would counsel that firepower and other attributes should increase in proportion to a warship’s displacement. Double or triple the displacement, double or triple the armament and protection. Keeping things in proportion would yield a capital ship worth its weight. Maybe even a battleship. – National Interest