Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas officials said on Tuesday that there had been no breakthrough in the mediated talks with Israel aimed at pausing the war and freeing the remaining hostages in the Gaza Strip, one day after President Biden said he was hopeful that a cease-fire would be in place by next week. – New York Times

But as the military has withdrawn soldiers from Gaza in recent weeks and the troops have returned home, they have found their country less like it was after Oct. 7 and more like it was before: torn by divisive politics and culture clashes. – New York Times

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Tuesday that she had personally urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to increase commercial engagement with the West Bank, contending that doing so was important for the economic welfare of both Israelis and Palestinians. – New York Times

The United Nations humanitarian office (OCHA) said on Tuesday the Israeli military had stalled a medical evacuation convoy in the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, detaining a paramedic and forcing others to remove their clothes. – Reuters

At least 576,000 people in the Gaza Strip – one quarter of the population – are one step away from famine, a senior U.N. aid official told the Security Council on Tuesday, warning that widespread famine could be “almost inevitable” without action. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday he had consistently resisted pressure to end the Gaza war prematurely and that this stand has popular U.S. support that “will help us continue the campaign until total victory” over Hamas. – Reuters

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza will help Israel’s economy rebound after the war, partly because its fresh experience of warfare is set to boost military technology sales, its economy minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell on Monday repeated his claim that Israel helped create the Palestinian terror group Hamas that it is battling to crush in a deadly offensive. Borrell spoke in response to questions about his assertion in January that Israel had “created” and “financed” the terror group. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: If a “revitalized” PA means a wholly revamped and restructured PA, with new leaders, new policies, new textbooks, and hands-on input from countries like the United Arab Emirates rather than Qatar, that would be one thing. If, however, it means just pouring old wine into a new bottle, then that is something else entirely. Shtayyeh’s resignation may be an effort to just replace old bottles with new ones. – Jerusalem Post

Dahlia Scheindlin writes: While I talked with a former resident of the kibbutz who said that there was no price too high to be paid for their release, two teenage girls sat next to us, chatting. One was the daughter of a hostage; the other had been a hostage herself, released in November. It was awful to imagine erasing her, or any of the remaining hostages, from the frame, as a sacrifice to a war in which more innocent people will be killed; a war that cannot be won without laying the groundwork for the next war. – New York Times

Amir Avivi writes: But none of the above will materialize without two crucial conditions. For starters, a clearly defined and reasonable Israeli strategy that harmonizes core Israeli interests and international expectations, drawing the framework for a better future for Israelis and Gazans. And second, American leadership to guide the above-mentioned parties towards defined goals. – Times of Israel

Ghaith al-Omari writes: For such an approach to succeed today, U.S. leadership is necessary but not sufficient. PA leaders will likely try to blunt American pressure by seeking support from other foreign donors. The Biden administration must therefore ensure that key regional and international stakeholders are on board with the above approach and conveying a similar message to the PA. – Washington Institute

Russia & Ukraine

The need to create such “Frankenguns” comes after two years of war that have meant many of the weapons donated by the West are now destroyed, damaged or in need of new components. Ukraine is on the defensive after Russian forces recently took the eastern city of Avdiivka. – Wall Street Journal

A Russian court sentenced one of the country’s most prominent human-rights activists to 30 months in prison for criticizing the war in Ukraine, part of a widening campaign to crush dissent and enforce domestic support for Russia’s invasion of its smaller neighbor. – Wall Street Journal

As the Russian military launched its offensive on the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka last fall, Ukrainian troops noticed a change in their tactics as column after column of Russian forces were ravaged by artillery fire. – New York Times

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrived in the Albanian capital of Tirana, Albanian Foreign Minister Igli Hasani said on Wednesday. Zelenskiy is expected to attend a security summit involving Ukraine and six countries of the Western Balkans, the first such meeting as Russia’s invasion drags into its third year. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday it had withdrawn from two more villages near the eastern town of Avdiivka which was captured earlier this month by Russian forces, losing more territory as support from its Western allies runs short. – Reuters

Russia will escalate an ongoing influence operation this spring aimed at destabilising Ukraine and scuppering international support for Kyiv in its two-year-old war with Moscow, Ukrainian intelligence warned on Tuesday. – Reuters

Marc Champion writes: This week, an official in Moldova’s breakaway province of Transnistria said it was about to request annexation by Moscow, no doubt in response to a request from the Kremlin. Putin was only half joking in 2016, when he said to a school child that “Russia’s borders do not end.” If Macron wants to lead a successful European defense of Ukraine it can be done, but he has his work cut out. – Bloomberg

Gregory J. Wallace writes: The refusal of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) even to hold a vote on Ukraine military aid may hand Ukraine to Putin — and that’s before a possible Trump presidency and a Republican majority Senate. The old Kremlin masters of the American Communist Party never dreamed they could accomplish anything like this. – The Hill

Wilson Beaver writes: The United States cannot care more about a European war than Europeans do, and has in fact contributed more than its “fair share” already. Meanwhile, the primary threat to American interests lies in the Pacific, a theater routinely downplayed by the foreign policy elites in Washington. While Russia is an opportunistic power that may seek power and advantage episodically, it is far less of a threat to U.S. national security interests than China. – Heritage Foundation 

James Holmes writes:  That’s why 2022 was a good year for Ukraine with regard to attracting Western help. Ukraine withstood a much stronger antagonist when few expected it, and it undid many of that antagonist’s territorial gains through venturesome operations that fall. Last year was less good because the much-ballyhooed Ukrainian spring offensive availed little. The counteroffensive made fitful progress at best. Prospects for regaining martial momentum this year are likewise glum. – The National Interest

Afghanistan

The Taliban held a public execution on Monday of a man convicted of murder in northern Afghanistan as thousands watched at a sports stadium, the third such death sentence to be carried out in the past five days. – Associated Press

The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) put the lives of Afghans who had helped the British military “at risk” with an email error, according to a monetary penalty notice from the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO). – The Record

James Durso writes: The envoy will have to fight to get on the Taliban foreign minister’s calendar. Seventeen countries maintain embassies in Kabul, the latest being Azerbaijan, which officially opened its embassy on Feb. 15. And, on Jan. 29, the emirate convened a conference in Kabul attended by representatives of 11 countries, including Russia, India, China, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The conference underlined the fact that, while the U.S. and Europe are staying away, Afghanistan’s neighbors are pragmatically seeking to engage the emirate. – The Hill

Middle East & North Africa

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and praised the kingdom’s efforts in seeking a solution to end Russia’s two-year-old invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters

Libya’s central bank governor has called for a unified national budget in an apparent challenge to his former ally Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah amid a slide in the value of the country’s dinar. – Reuters

The emir of Qatar spoke Tuesday of “a race against time” to secure hostage releases as part of the diplomatic push for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza in which his country is playing a key role. – Associated Press

Shukriya Bradost writes: Iran’s weak internal position and international isolation prevent it from wanting to directly confront Turkey at this time, even though the latter has not shied away from supporting ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran or threatening to militarily pursue PKK forces inside Iran’s borders. Still, it is in both Tehran and Ankara’s interest to stop fueling inter-ethnic tensions on each other’s territories; the blowback and possible consequences would be exceedingly difficult to predict given the complex multi-ethnic and multi-religious natures of both countries’ societies. – Middle East Institute

China

China revised its law on state secrets on Tuesday to encompass sensitive information that didn’t previously fall under its scope, potentially adding to foreign businesses’ concerns over the risks of operating in the country. – Wall Street Journal

China’s government said on Wednesday that its coast guard patrols around a group of Taiwanese islands near the Chinese coast were “beyond reproach”, and dismissed complaints the boarding of a Taiwan tourist boat had caused panic. – Reuters

China and Russia should strengthen communication and coordination in Asia Pacific affairs and jointly safeguard regional security, stability and development, the Chinese foreign ministry reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

States with the largest nuclear arsenals should negotiate a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or make a political statement in this regard, the Chinese foreign ministry’s arms control department said. – Reuters

Editorial: These are not the actions of a confident government, much less a world financial center. It is telling that Beijing and Hong Kong are more afraid of their own people than Hong Kong’s British colonial government ever was. The world sees this fear growing, as repression begets more repression. – Wall Street Journal

Asia

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Wednesday said the Chinese navy’s presence in the South China Sea is “worrisome” but will not deter his country from defending its maritime territory and protecting its fishermen. – Reuters

Tuvalu’s new government has reaffirmed its relations with Taiwan after last month’s election, Tuvalu’s government said in a statement, adding that it wants dialogue with Australia over a security pact signed last year. – Reuters

Armenia and Azerbaijan officials will hold talks in Berlin this week aimed at finding a solution to the decade-long conflict between the two Caucasus countries. The two-day peace negotiations will take place from Wednesday at the guest house of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, on the outskirts of the city, the ministry said in a statement. – Bloomberg

The Philippines is working to explore other parts of the country that are potentially rich in oil and gas, according to an energy official, as talks with Beijing on joint resource development in the South China Sea are stalled by tensions between the two nations. – Bloomberg

Ellen Goldstein writes:  Paramount among these is ensuring accountability of a reformed military to civilian authority, resolving citizenship status for the one-in-five people who are without (including the Rohingya), and defining responsibilities and systems for a functional federated state. The people of Myanmar have been surprisingly successful in their fight for democracy. The U.S. can and should do more to help. – The Hill

Africa

Somalia faces “a pivotal year,” said Omar S. Mahmood, the senior Eastern Africa analyst for the International Crisis Group. “A number of critical timelines linked to both domestic politics and security are coinciding, and the way these are handled will determine the country’s trajectory.” – New York Times

Senegal’s national dialogue commission will propose a delayed presidential election be held on June 2 and recommend President Macky Sall remain in office until his successor is sworn in, commission member Ndiawar Paye said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Millions of people in Sudan’s Darfur region are at risk of dying of hunger after a decision by the Sudanese government to prohibit aid deliveries through Chad, an advocacy group for internally displaced people said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Transitional authorities in junta-led Guinea have appointed one-time opposition leader and economist Mamadou Oury Bah to the role of prime minister, according to a decree read on national television on Tuesday. – Reuters

Aaron Maasho and Martin Witteveen write: An enlarged scope would then pave the way for the transitional justice policy to advance reconciliation without accountability. Western reluctance to shun Abiy due to geopolitical considerations means that it is now all but certain that the Ethiopian government will successfully sweep its atrocities in Tigray under the rug. Perhaps, though, that is what some Western partners really have in mind. – Foreign Policy

North America

Mexico will impose tariffs on steel if its biggest trading partner, the United States, enacts such measures first, Mexican Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro said at a news conference on Tuesday. – Reuters

Canada and the United States fully agree on the urgent need to move forward with confiscating frozen Russian sovereign assets to help Ukraine, which has recently faced setbacks on the battlefield, Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Benin has offered 2,000 troops to support a planned Kenyan-led international force to help Haitian national police fight armed gangs, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told a press conference on Monday. – Reuters

The Caribbean island of Aruba issued an alert on Tuesday after an oil spill that was first spotted near Tobago spread to neighboring Bonaire, threatening its mangrove forests and national parks. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

Britain’s media censorship board is trying to woo Big Tech. But the Silicon Valley giants just aren’t interested. Tech firms including Google, Meta, and X have repeatedly spurned the secretive British committee in its mission to prevent state secrets spreading across social platforms. – Politico

An Iranian-sponsored cyberespionage unit is impersonating major brands like Boeing and the Chinese drone manufacturer DJI as part of a social engineering and phishing campaign targeting the aerospace, aviation and defense industries across the Middle East. – Cyberscoop

As large language models and other artificial intelligence tools have proliferated more widely, researchers remain divided on whether highly capable AI tools will provide an advantage to attackers or defenders in cyberspace. – Cyberscoop

Researchers say that over the past year, at least 14 state-sponsored hacker groups from around the world have targeted Russia and some former Soviet Union members — Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan — with destructive or espionage campaigns. – The Record