Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The U.S. is hosting an inaugural meeting of President Trump’s Board of Peace on Thursday, debuting the president’s vision for a new international organization to cement Middle East peace and rebuild a war-ravaged Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

A day ahead of the inaugural meeting of President Trump’s Board of Peace, his initiative for ending the war in Gaza, diplomats at the United Nations Security Council raised concerns about continued Israeli attacks on Gaza, the amount of aid entering the territory and Israel’s increasing military raids and expansion plans in the occupied West Bank. – New York Times

Hamas is cementing its hold over Gaza by placing loyalists in key government roles, collecting taxes and paying salaries, according to an Israeli military assessment seen by Reuters and sources in the Palestinian enclave. – Reuters

The European Union is exploring possible support for a new committee established to take over the civil administration of Gaza, according to a document produced by the bloc’s diplomatic arm and seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Before Pakistan commits to sending troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force it wants assurances from the United States that it will be a peacekeeping mission rather than tasked with disarming Hamas, three sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to travel to Israel next week to update Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, two Trump administration officials said. – Associated Press 

Members of the United Nations Security Council called Wednesday for the Gaza ceasefire deal to become permanent and blasted Israeli efforts to expand control in the West Bank as a threat to prospects of a two-state solution, coming on the eve of President Donald Trump’s first Board of Peace gathering to discuss the future of the Palestinian territories. – Associated Press

The anti-Hamas Abu Shabab militia in Gaza is nearing completion of its mission to dismantle Hamas tunnels in the Rafah area of Gaza and is gearing up for the second phase of its operations, the group’s leader, Ghassan Duhine, told N12 News on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post 

MIND Israel and Lebanese-American organization This is Beirut held the first-ever formal Lebanese-Israeli civil society panel at the Munich Security Conference this week, representing a “meaningful first step toward reversing decades of hostility,” Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, founder of MIND, told me on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post 

Israeli troops began conducting a raid in the West Bank city of Hebron, arresting dozens of suspects after gunfire was heard in the area earlier on Wednesday, the military said. – Times of Israel

After some two years of deliberations, the Attorney General’s Office announced earlier this week that the state’s prosecution services have agreed that a special military tribunal proposed in a bipartisan Knesset bill will be the framework for trying Palestinian terrorists accused of committing massacres and other atrocities in the October 7, 2023, invasion. – Times of Israel

Douglas Bloomfield writes: Bibi is right. The extensive and expanding Iranian ballistic missile arsenal is today’s clear and present danger – as is the funding for Tehran’s network of terror proxies, which would get a boost from lifting sanctions. The nuclear threat must not be ignored, but it is not nearly as urgent. If Iran is ripe for regime change, this is no time for regime rescue, which is what lifting sanctions would amount to. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Hungary and Slovakia threatened to cut off energy supplies to Ukraine in a dispute over an oil pipeline, potentially compounding a crisis that has left millions of Ukrainians without reliable power during the coldest months of the year. – Wall Street Journal

U.S.-mediated talks between Moscow and Kyiv in Geneva broke off on Wednesday without any significant progress or indication that Russia was ready to step back from its maximalist demands for subjugating Ukraine. – Washington Post

Democratic U.S. senators traveling in Ukraine and neighboring countries on Wednesday vowed to return to Washington and push for stiff new energy sanctions and other legislation to put pressure on Russia to end its aggression against Ukraine. – Reuters

Canada will step up support to Ukraine’s energy sector, working with industry to supply oil and gas equipment on favourable terms and boost renewable energy investments, the two governments said on Wednesday. – Reuters

European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump’s assertions that U.S.-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal “reasonably close”. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Russia and Ukraine were close to having a document establishing how any ceasefire to end the four-year war would be monitored, following U.S.-brokered peace talks in Geneva on Wednesday. – Reuters        

Russia is demanding that European countries who accused Moscow of poisoning Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny with a dart frog toxin provide concrete data to support their allegation, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Foreign intelligence services are able to see messages sent by Russian soldiers using the Telegram messaging app, Russia’s minister for digital development Maksud Shadayev said on Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported. – Reuters

Turkey

A Turkish parliamentary commission voted overwhelmingly on Wednesday to approve a report envisaging legal reforms alongside the militant Kurdistan Workers Party’s (PKK) disarmament, advancing a peace process meant to end decades of conflict. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he is pleased to see steps taken in neighbouring Syria to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into state structures, after a U.S.-backed ceasefire deal late last month between the sides. – Reuters

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will travel to Washington in lieu of President Tayyip Erdogan for the inaugural meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” on Thursday, the foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

China

A major U.S. arms-sales package for Taiwan is in limbo following pressure from Chinese leader Xi Jinping and concerns among some in the Trump administration that greenlighting the weapons deal would derail President Trump’s coming visit to Beijing, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal

Beijing is exploiting the uncertainty created by Trump to try to stitch China’s vast manufacturing base into the world’s biggest economic blocs, including the European Union, Gulf States and a trans-Pacific trade pact, a Reuters examination found. – Reuters

An explosion at a fireworks’ shop in China’s Hubei province on Wednesday killed 12 people, state media reported, the second such explosion as the country celebrates the Lunar New Year. – ⁠Associated Press

The International Monetary Fund faulted China’s economic policies for causing waste at home and damage abroad and called for a reorientation by Beijing to embrace a model based on domestic consumer spending. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The Taiwan Relations Act obligates the U.S. to supply defensive weapons to the island. If Mr. Trump abdicates on that obligation, China will immediately use it to tell the Taiwanese people that America can’t be trusted to defend them. Japan, South Korea and the Philippines will also get the message that Mr. Trump’s priority in the Pacific is China, not their mutual defense. No one wants a war over Taiwan, but war is more likely if Mr. Xi concludes that President Trump can be intimidated for the sake of a smiling summit. – Wall Street Journal

Asia

Australian police said on Thursday they had launched an investigation after a threatening letter was sent to the country’s largest mosque, the third such incident in the lead-up to the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. – Reuters

Indonesian and U.S. companies on Wednesday signed deals worth $38.4 billion ahead of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to sign a final trade pact, the Indonesian government said in a statement. – Reuters

Thailand hopes to bring Myanmar back into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nearly five years after a military coup, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said on Wednesday after meeting his Myanmar counterpart. – Reuters

The U.S. government has signed an agreement with Uzbekistan to secure better access to the Central Asian country’s critical minerals, as U.S. President Donald Trump moves to counter China’s dominance of crucial resources and their supply chains. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday expressed hopes of deepening her relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump and strengthen cooperation between the two countries in rare earths development and other areas of economic security when she visits Washington next month. – Associated Press

David Fickling writes: Were Japan to find itself cut off from the sources of its imported energy in the event of such a conflict, its inventories of the LNG and coal that provide two-thirds of its electricity would run out in around a month. Crude would last for six months, thanks to stockpiles introduced after the 1973 oil embargo plunged the nation into just such a crisis of panic buying and recession. Nuclear fuel would deplete within two years. The solar panels and wind farms that Japan is currently spurning, however, would keep going well into the 2050s. […] By aligning with an isolationist US to bolster its quixotic campaign against a world transitioning to clean energy, today’s leaders risk compounding those dangers — for Japan, and for the planet. – Bloomberg

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev writes: Kazakhstan is preparing to hold a national referendum on a new Constitution which aims to strengthen public institutions, enhance accountability and ensure more sustainable and resilient governance for the future. In today’s international environment, credibility is defined not by rhetoric, but by consistency and responsibility. Countries that honor their commitments, act transparently, and pursue practical cooperation are the ones that build lasting trust. Kazakhstan remains firmly committed to being a reliable and honest partner that prioritizes stability, respects international obligations, and delivers tangible results. – National Interest

Africa

Four journalists investigating a secretive Trump administration effort to deport migrants to the African nation of Cameroon were detained on Tuesday, according to two of the people detained. – New York Times 

Mass killings of non‑Arab communities when the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group captured the Sudanese city of al‑Fashir bears hallmarks that point to genocide, an independent UN probe said in a new report on Thursday. – Reuters

Gabon has suspended some social media platforms, citing concerns that posts could undermine social cohesion and threaten the stability of institutions and national security, the Central African country’s media regulator said in a statement. – Reuters

Guinea-Bissau’s foreign minister has said his government has stopped a study funded by the Trump administration aiming to evaluate side effects of the life-saving hepatitis B vaccine, including any links to autism. – Reuters

The United Nations human rights chief expressed alarm on Wednesday following reports of more than 50 civilians being killed in drone strikes in Sudan in two days in the last week. – Reuters

Global oil firms and traders including Vitol, Trafigura and TotalEnergies have won tenders to supply Libya with gasoline and diesel as the country grants large Western players wider access and reduces imports of Russian fuel, three trading sources told Reuters. – Reuters

The Democratic Republic of Congo added the rebel-held Rubaya coltan mine, one of the world’s richest tantalum deposits, to a shortlist of strategic assets it is offering to the U.S. under a minerals cooperation framework, a government document seen by Reuters shows. – Reuters

A “campaign of destruction” in October by Sudanese rebels against non-Arab communities in and near a city in Sudan’s western region of Darfur shows “hallmarks of genocide,” U.N.-backed human rights experts reported Thursday, a dramatic finding in the country’s devastating war. – Associated Press 

U.S.-backed airstrikes and recently expanded ground operations have shifted momentum in Somalia ‘s long-running war against al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab militant group, the government says, touting successes in the fight such as efforts to reclaim territory from the extremists and the targeting of the group’s leadership and bomb-making network. – Associated Press

South Africa’s upcoming budget must deliver on debt targets to preserve confidence in public finances and adopting a fiscal anchor would provide key assistance, said the International Monetary Fund. – Bloomberg

North America

A senior Canadian official says he’s hoping to speak with the U.S. Trade Representative in the coming weeks about addressing the Trump administration’s complaints over Canadian trade policy. – Wall Street Journal

A lawmaker from Canada’s Conservative Party has joined the minority Liberal government, setting the stage for Prime Minister Mark Carney to secure a majority in the legislature pending results in special elections some time this year. – Wall Street Journal

Canada introduced new immigration priority categories on Wednesday to bring in skilled workers in fields ranging from research and health care to aviation, and to include certain military recruits. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez on Wednesday in the Kremlin, where he said that new restrictions imposed on the communist-run island were “unacceptable”, Russian state news agencies reported. – Reuters

The White House said on Wednesday it was in Cuba’s best interest to make significant changes soon but stopped short of calling for a change in government leadership there. – Reuters

Michael Kovrig and Patricia Xavier write: Without clear enforcement, a Carney Doctrine risks becoming what the Canadian prime minister’s Davos speech condemned: another collectively performed story, only with new slogans. But matched with robust commitment mechanisms, it could become a blueprint for a suite of workable, enforceable middle-power strategies. One day, a different Washington might even come to embrace some of them as more equitable and democratic means of realizing its own, original vision of order. – Foreign Policy

Cybersecurity

Chancellor Friedrich Merz backed growing calls in Germany for controls on access to social media platforms by children, saying he had become increasingly persuaded of the need for compulsory limits by evidence of the harm done by the deliberate spreading of fake news and other forms of online manipulation. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s Humain, the kingdom’s artificial intelligence company, said on Wednesday it had invested $3 billion in Elon Musk’s xAI as a part of its Series E funding round just prior to its acquisition by SpaceX. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron said one of his priorities for the Group of Seven presidency will be protecting children from the harmful effects of social media and artificial intelligence, calling on countries like India to support the measures. – Bloomberg

The UK government has proposed rules that would require tech companies to remove abusive images from their sites within 48 hours, weeks after X users flooded the social media platform with thousands of pictures of undressed women they’d generated with the company’s artificial intelligence tool. – Bloomberg

Mark Zuckerberg testified that it’s “very difficult” to enforce Instagram’s age limits and downplayed how much teen users do for the company’s business during a landmark trial over social media addiction. – Bloomberg

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate will plow as much as 10 trillion rupees ($110 billion) over seven years into artificial intelligence-related infrastructure, joining the global rush into technology’s fastest-growing arena. – Bloomberg

OpenAI is partnering with the Tata Group in India on artificial intelligence technologies, including data center infrastructure that could become one of the largest in the country. – Bloomberg

A stunning two petabytes (two quadrillion bytes) of data has been hacked from Israelis in recent years, Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) Chief Yossi Karadi told The Jerusalem Post in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post 

A 37-year-old Nigerian man was sentenced to eight years in prison for participating in a five-year cybercrime spree to steal money from the U.S. government through fraudulent tax returns, the Justice Department said Wednesday. – Cyberscoop

Rudra Chaudhuri writes: There is some evidence that in certain sectors, this is already happening. Several applications at scale are also built upon open weight and open-source LLMs offered by U.S. firms. In sum, no matter which way the balance goes between sovereign build-outs and the LLMs trained by the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI, the India-U.S. AI story continues to expand. And so far, at least, the relationship has proved to be largely immune from high-level political disruptions. – Foreign Policy