Fdd's overnight brief

Syria

The uncle of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is set to go on trial in Paris Monday on charges of building up a property empire in France using funds from Syrian state coffers. – Agence France-Presse 

Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett warned the Islamic Republic on Sunday that Syria “will become your Vietnam” shortly after an air strike on a pro-Iran militia in the war-torn country. – Algemeiner 

Air strikes by Syrian government and Russian forces killed at least 20 people in rebel-held northwestern Syria on Saturday, activists and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. – Reuters

Israel

With just days left for Israel’s parliament to find a solution to the country’s ongoing political deadlock, there have been a flurry of proposals that lawmakers hope will prevent a third election in less than a year. – Washington Post

President Donald Trump declared the American-Israeli alliance “unbreakable” and slammed anti-Israel Democratic lawmakers at a major conference of pro-Israel activists on Saturday night. – Algemeiner 

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a symbolic resolution on Friday backing a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, following initiatives from President Donald Trump seen as heavily favoring the Jewish state. – Reuters

Former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley accused Canada on Thursday of making a “deal with the devil” by recently voting in favor of an anti-Israel General Assembly resolution. Speaking at the annual UN Watch gala in New York City, Haley said Canada was “trading its integrity for a seat on the Security Council” with its turn against the Jewish state. – Algemeiner

Ami Ayalon, Gadi Shamni and Danny Yatom write: We appreciate the resounding two-party support for two states that Congress has voiced and believe Congress should send an equally forceful bipartisan message opposing unilateral annexation — whether full or partial. These congressional steps would be particularly important now, as our annexationist minority, emboldened by the change in U.S. policy, seeks to jeopardize Israel’s security and future as a Jewish democracy by making good on its destructive, messianic vision. – The Hill

Asher Fredman writes: The positive feelings regarding Israel’s current international position should not lead us to complacency. Both the Israeli government and the pro-Israel community must prepare today for tomorrow’s battles. While the skies above are mostly clear, there are storm clouds on the horizon. – Jerusalem Post

Libya

A pact to halt illegal migration between Italy and Libya, and backed by the European Union, has made the Libyan Coast Guard the de facto border patrol for Europe. Migrants and refugees, who arrive to Libya after fleeing conflict and poverty at home, are hazarding the dangerous crossing through the Mediterranean only to be intercepted and returned to Libya. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. military officials believe that the unmanned American drone that went missing near Libya’s capital late last month was shot down by Russian air defenses. – The Hill

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: On December 6, 2016, the Islamic State in Libya (ISL) lost its last vestige of territorial control when it surrendered the north-central city of Sirte. Three years later, the group is a shadow of its former self… […]Even so, Washington needs to continue coordinating airstrikes and sharing intelligence with its partners in Libya in order to break up ISL camps and prevent the group from carrying out an Iraq/Syria-style resurgence. In addition, U.S. diplomats should mediate between various Libyan parties locally and internationally to help avert the negative consequences that a full-on assault of Tripoli could have in terms of boosting ISL’s prospects for a comeback. – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

EU foreign ministers are to hold talks on Monday on a maritime territory deal between Turkey and Libya that has stoked tensions between Ankara and EU capitals and raised the stakes in an escalating battle for resources under the Mediterranean Sea. – Financial Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Friday he believed the U.S. military had sufficient capability in the Middle East for now to deter conflict, dismissing a media report that a major troop increase was under consideration amid tension with Iran. – Reuters 

Yemen Shiite Houthi rebels say they have identified a range of Israeli military targets they are able to attack. – Bloomberg

Qatari ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani is scheduled to travel to Rwanda on Monday as Gulf Cooperation Council leaders prepare to meet in Saudi Arabia a day later. – Bloomberg

China

People held in controversial training camps in Xinjiang have “graduated” and new students will have the “freedom to come and go”, the government of China’s far western region said on Monday, slamming foreign estimates of the numbers detained. – Reuters

China on Monday defended its vast network of re-education camps in Xinjiang and said it would continue “training” residents, following explosive government document leaks detailing surveillance and control of the region’s Uighur population. – Agence France-Presse 

In his Twitter bio, Chinese diplomat Lijian Zhao says he wants to “spread the voice of China.” That voice apparently has a lot of nasty things to say about the United States. – Politico 

The biggest threat posed by Russia and China lies in advancements in space capabilities, said the Air Force chief during a panel at the Reagan National Defense Forum. – Defense News 

Just because China might be able to hit U.S. Navy aircraft carriers with long-range anti-ship missiles doesn’t mean carriers are worthless, the service’s top officer said Thursday. – Defense News 

A Uighur woman who lives in the Netherlands has reportedly said she leaked documents on China’s “re-education” camps for Uighur Muslims. – The Hill

Editorial: Halfway through the five years, the bank will assess China for “graduation.” We can only assume that, in the meantime, any lending that directly or indirectly enables human rights violations would be selected out. Congress must keep the pressure on to make sure that it is. – Washington Post

Eli Lake writes: This is another false claim that proves too much — much like China’s assertion that the grass-roots activism in Hong Kong is due to the machinations of human-rights organizations. The reason that China’s Communist Party fears the promotion of democratic values is clear: because it fears the empowerment of the Chinese people. – Bloomberg

Louise Lucas writes: One question is whether bending to China’s will can jeopardise business elsewhere — say, from flocks of millennials spurning sneakers or movies from companies that make what they see as unpalatable choices. Accessing China’s market may look less attractive if it means being shunned by an entire generation of consumers across the rest of the world. – Financial Times

Asia

Six months after an estimated one million people marched in an antigovernment rally, large crowds again took to the streets of Hong Kong on Sunday in a renewed sign of demonstrators’ determination to wrest democratic concessions from their leaders. – Wall Street Journal

The president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong was denied entry on Saturday to the nearby city of Macau, which like Hong Kong is a semiautonomous region of China and normally grants Hong Kong residents rapid entry, reflecting the two cities’ close business, economic and historical ties. – Wall Street Journal

Aung San Suu Kyi spent the best part of two decades under house arrest when a military junta ruled Myanmar. This week in The Hague, the Nobel laureate and former democracy campaigner will defend some of the same generals and her country against allegations of genocide. – Washington Post

USS America (LHA-6) arrived at its new homeport of Sasebo, Japan, on Thursday, a move that puts the big-deck amphibious assault ship designed to accommodate the F-35B Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters in the Western Pacific. – USNI News

Three square miles of volcanic rock on the edge of the East China Sea may one day be used as an unsinkable aircraft carrier for the United States Navy in the event of war in Asia. – CNN

Simon Cartledge writes: Yet unless a way can be found to have a government that is answerable to Hong Kong’s people, not only will political discontent continue to fester, but the economy – still the city’s principal reason for being – will also remain stifled. Hong Kong will become an also-ran, far behind Shenzhen – and far sooner than almost anyone seems prepared to contemplate. – Bloomberg

Europe

The International Monetary Fund has agreed to lend $5.5 billion to Ukraine, a move viewed as a stamp of approval for President Volodymyr Zelensky’s anti-corruption and economic policies. – New York Times 

The United States ambassador to Denmark barred an American NATO expert critical of President Trump from speaking at an international conference hosted by the American embassy and a Danish think tank, prompting the event’s cancellation, organizers said. – New York Times 

NATO allies are warning French President Emmanuel Macron not to “soften” his support for Kyiv days before he hosts a summit focused on resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. – Washington Examiner

Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of NATO, said Sunday he believes President Donald Trump remains committed to the 70-year-old military alliance. – Politico 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was nervous about his narrowing lead in opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s election but pledged to deliver a “transformative” Brexit that will allow lower immigration. – Reuters

Hamas officials in both Gaza and London are working in support of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, ahead of the UK general election on Thursday. According to Tazpit Press Service (TPS), the “We Support Jeremy Corbyn” Facebook page, one of the largest and most influential Corbyn support networks globally with some 72,000 members, is managed from the Gaza strip. – Jerusalem Post

“We just put forward a resolution on labelling. It’s difficult because the European Court of Justice ruled that all products from disputed areas should be labelled, and we put forward a resolution that this can only be implemented if all other disputed areas in the world are also labelled, and that resolution was accepted by our parliament,” said Voordewind in relation to the actions his party has taken against the labelling requirement. – Arutz Sheva

Bret Stephens writes: But as far as models go, the story of France’s economy in the past 40 years is mostly one of bad turns, thwarted hopes, and forgone opportunities. Americans should not imagine that we can walk down that same familiar cul-de-sac and not hit the same dismal dead end. – New York Times 

Ben Judah writes: All this is happening at a moment when Europeans, encouraged by French President Emmanuel Macron, are more willing than ever to turn a blind eye to the Kremlin. Ironically, leaving Europe is making Britain more continental — at least when it comes to Russia. – Washington Post

Jane Harman writes: If petty feuds suck all the oxygen out of the urgent priorities for NATO, then brain death may not be far behind. But the good news is that the average adult has about 100 billion brain cells, and NATO leaders have nearly 3 trillion altogether. The challenges to the transatlantic alliance number far fewer than that, and if world leaders can focus on the current and emerging threats that really matter, then the 75th anniversary of the critical alliance will be a real cause for celebration five years from now. – The Hill

Tom Rogan writes: In short, Russia has good reason to see Corbyn triumph over Johnson. Where does this leave us? With more questions than answers, but interesting questions nonetheless. Did Russia just hack another election? – Washington Examiner

Jonathan Brunson writes: Amid the tumult surrounding impeachment proceedings against U.S. President Donald J. Trump, which center on his actions with regard to Ukraine, an unnoticed headline is what’s happening to Ukraine’s own President Volodymyr Zelensky. […]But Trump is only one of his problems, and far from the most significant. Resentment is growing among many patriotic and civically minded citizens about what they view as peace on Russian terms after almost six years of war over the Ukraine-Russia border region of Donbas. – The Daily Beast

The Americas

House Democrats and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are nearing a deal for Congress to pass a modified U.S. trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, though hurdles remain, according to people familiar with the negotiations. – Wall Street Journal 

President Trump said Friday that he would temporarily hold off on designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, saying he was doing so at the request of the president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. – New York Times 

The U.S. and Mexico have resolved the major sticking points in negotiations to make changes to the new North American trade pact, clearing the way for a deal to be announced in the coming days, three people close to the talks told POLITICO. – Politico 

Ryan Dube writes: Today, Mr. Maduro appears in firm control. […]The rosier outlook for Mr. Maduro underscores the difficulty for the U.S. and its allies in ousting a leader who has control of the armed forces and police and readily uses those forces to repress the opposition. It also highlights the excessive optimism of the Trump administration and what critics of the American policy said were unrealistic expectations that pressure tactics would easily force Mr. Maduro and his lieutenants from power. – Wall Street Journal

Peter Andreas writes: U.S.-Mexican relations have often been tumultuous, requiring extra diplomatic care on both sides of the border. But perhaps now more than at any time in recent decades, Mexicans are painfully reminded of their old saying, “Poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States.” – Washington Post

Carlos Abadi writes: So, no currency manipulation here: punishing Argentina and Brazil with national security-inspired tariffs on steel and aluminium on grounds of currency manipulation is a thinly veiled effort to get those two countries to “do a deal” by curtailing their soyabean exports to China (a trade over which the Administration has no jurisdiction) and restore Mr Trump’s support among a key constituency, which views itself as collateral damage of the president’s trade wars. – Financial Times

Long War

Saudi authorities are investigating whether a member of its air force who shot dead three people on a U.S. military base was radicalized during a trip back to the kingdom that began late last year, according to Saudi officials. […]U.S. authorities are investigating the shooting as an act of terrorism, federal officials said Sunday. – Wall Street Journal

After a Saudi gunman killed three people at a naval base in Pensacola, Fla., some of President Trump’s Republican allies took to the airwaves to condemn the attack as an act of terrorism, call for a halt to the training program that admitted the shooter and sharply press the Saudi government to cooperate in the investigation. Trump did none of that. – Washington Post

Glenn Kessler writes: But Trump has given no indication that he intends to add Saudi Arabia, and in fact, he has rushed to relay that “they are devastated in Saudi Arabia” and that “the king will be involved in taking care of families and loved ones.” Just like Obama, Trump has not used the word “terrorism” to describe the attack. But the attack shows the limits of Trump’s travel ban. We will be watching to see whether the president repeats his claims about it at his next rally. – Washington Post