Fdd's overnight brief

Hezbollah

The Lebanon-based terrorist organization Hezbollah revealed on Friday that it had sent an unmanned aerial drone (UAV) into Israeli territory in October and even went so far as to near a major IDF base, all the while not being picked up by Israeli radar, according to Hezbollah-affiliated TV channel Al-Manar. – Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah announced on Friday that it is suing a number of entities who have accused it of being behind the explosion at Beirut’s port that killed over 200 people and wounded thousands in early August, Walla reported Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

The prosecutor’s office filed an indictment Sunday in the Ramle Magistrates’ Court against Kamal Tannus, a 50-year-old resident of the city, for inciting terrorism and showing solidarity with a terrorist organization. – Ynet

Israel

Israeli authorities have cleared police of any wrongdoing in the case of a 9-year-old boy who lost an eye after apparently being shot in the face by an Israeli officer earlier this year. – Associated Press

Israeli soldiers fatally shot a 15-year-old Palestinian on Friday during stone-throwing clashes in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian officials said, although the Israeli military said its forces had not used live fire. – Retuers

Israel is a logical, strategic link between ports in Europe and the Middle East, DP World’s chairman said on Monday, estimating initial UAE-Israel bilateral trade could be worth $5 billion. – Reuters

In the coming years, Israelis will be able to commute into Jerusalem and Tel Aviv from settlements deep inside the West Bank via highways, tunnels and overpasses that cut a wide berth around Palestinian towns. – Associated Press

The Israeli government on Thursday urged its citizens to avoid travel to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, citing threats of Iranian attacks. – Associated Press

Hundreds of Palestinians attended the funeral Saturday of a teenager killed in clashes with the Israeli army, defying a curfew imposed on the occupied West Bank to stem the coronavirus. – Agence France-Presse

Khalil al-Hayya, a member of the Hamas political bureau and one of the group’s senior members in the Gaza Strip, on Sunday warned the Palestinian Authority against normalization with Israel. – Arutz Sheva

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said that that the centrality of the Palestinian cause constitutes the basis of regional conflict and that settling the conflict on the basis of the two-state solution is the only way to achieve viable peace and stability. – Arutz Sheva

Israel is “deeply grateful” for US President Donald Trump recognizing Jerusalem as its capital, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday, the third anniversary of that proclamation. – Jerusalem Post

Yair Ramati writes: Ultimately, American and Israeli policies for maintaining Israel’s QME, in place since the 1960s, are due for an update. Tectonic changes in the region require fresh policies from both Washington and Jerusalem. An updated and balanced bilateral policy can enable Israel’s new peace partners to benefit from the diplomatic process they have entered, while minimizing erosion of Israel’s QME.  – Defense News

Micah Halpern writes: Israel is fighting a war against those that are threatening to wipe the Jewish State off the map. Israel’s enemies are developing weapons that can do just that. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s role was to create those weapons and to teach others to create those weapons. The best defense is to prevent your enemies from procuring those weapons. In practical terms, once Iran or any other enemy of Israel developed those weapons, it would be much harder to stop them from being used. The death of Fakhrizadeh put a big chink in the development process of those weapons. It was a devastating set back for Iran. – Jerusalem Post

Lahav Harkov writes: What Israel can understand from the Saudis fostering the continued will-they-won’t-they drama is that they are not as ready as some in Israel had hoped to establish open ties between the countries. Israel needs to continue to tread carefully to keep that progress moving in the direction of “they will.” – Jerusalem Post

Gulf States

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have reached a tentative deal to end a yearslong feud that has fractured the Middle East, paving the way for broader regional talks that could cool tensions between longstanding Gulf rivals by year’s end, U.S. and Gulf officials said Friday. – Wall Street Journal

The United Arab Emirates was the target of cyber attacks after establishing formal ties with Israel, the Gulf Arab state’s cyber security head said on Sunday. – Reuters

A senior Saudi royal lashed out at Israel at a conference with its foreign minister, in a sharp departure from the kingdom’s recent official rhetoric. – Bloomberg

A resolution of the Gulf diplomatic crisis is in sight, with all nations involved “on board” and final agreement expected soon, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said Saturday. – Agence France-Presse

Any new nuclear deal with Iran must prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons, said the Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Dr. Nayef al-Hajraf on Sunday. – Al Arabiya

Simon Henderson writes: The price hikes may be annoying for the new administration — and consumers — but also likely will be a further blow to OPEC and OPEC+, setting off arguments about increased quotas and levels of production cheating. Although OPEC internal crises may reoccur, they no longer may be cyclical. Instead of returning to the same point, the trend in the cartel may be towards unravelling.  – The Hill

China

Facing global anger over their initial mishandling of the outbreak, the Chinese authorities are now trying to rewrite the narrative of the pandemic by pushing theories that the virus originated outside China. – New York Times

China and the United States need to proceed together with “good will” to improve relations, the Chinese ambassador to Washington said on Saturday, as ties remained fraught between the world’s two biggest economic powers. – Reuters

China said on Monday it firmly opposes and strongly condemns U.S. interference in its domestic affairs if a media report that Washington is preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials over a Hong Kong crackdown is true. – Reuters

China firmly opposes and strongly condemns U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo imposing sanctions on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) United Front Work Department, the foreign ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi said on Monday he hoped and believed that U.S. policy on China could eventually “return to objectivity and rationality”. – Reuters

The United States is preparing to impose sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong, according to three sources, including a U.S. official familiar with the matter. – Reuters

China has planted its flag on the Moon, more than 50 years after the US first planted the Stars and Stripes there. – BBC

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday announced that the State Department has ended five exchange programs with China, calling them “propaganda.” – The Hill

The top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee on Friday warned of Chinese national security threats due to Chinese government efforts to “exert its global dominance.” – The Hill

Huawei has started investing in emerging Chinese chip companies as the telecoms group accelerates efforts to become self-reliant in semiconductor technologies in the face of US sanctions. – Financial Times

David Von Drehle writes: This question leads to a third principle: China policy is now too important to be a plaything for Washington’s reckless partisans. Just as warring Democrats and Republicans agreed after World War II to unite behind a Cold War strategy, so, too, must today’s leaders seek a consistent approach to China. Beijing has taken a menacing wrong turn. We need steady hands in response. – Washington Post

Zachary Faria writes: Joe Biden has tried to sound like he will be tough on China as a growing number of people sour on the influence that the Chinese Communist Party holds over America’s economy and culture. But Biden’s history toward China continues to shine through, suggesting he’ll do nothing more than scold the CCP. – Washington Examiner

Edward Lucas writes: This is not a conflict of means. China is big. So is the West. It is a contest based on respective capabilities in willpower and coordination. […]Alliances and the internal freedoms of our societies mean we can bewilder, distract, and demoralize those seeking to attack us while reenergizing our own systems and institutions with a sense of purpose and shared mission. This conflict is indeed real and daunting. But it does not need to end in a military confrontation. Nor need it — yet — end in defeat for the West. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Hal Brands writes: The U.S. mostly has President Xi Jinping to thank for the world’s major democracies becoming more aligned in their views of the Chinese challenge. Yet the geography of great-power competition is shifting, and succeeding in the developing world will require more than good luck. – Bloomberg

Sebastien Roblin writes: Beijing is not interested in foreign wars at this time. However, it does seek to alter the military balance of power in the Pacific Ocean. Aircraft like the J-16D suggest the People’s Liberation Army is interested in developing specialized aircraft that will offer China a full spectrum of air-warfare capabilities—just like those of the U.S. military. – The National Interest

Robert A. Manning writes: As the global backlash to China’s imperious behavior grows, this Australia incident should be a tipping point. Like-minded nations need to collectively stand up and say: this shall not stand, we cannot do business this way with China. To move in that direction, we offer Ten Demands that the world community should make of China. – The National Interest

Robert Farley and J. Tyler Lovell write: Despite these formidable obstacles, Chinese advancement in military aviation continues apace, and it is unlikely that China will lag behind in engine technology forever. Advances in 3D printing may yet provide a way for it to rapidly build, prototype, and develop jet engines. However, while 3D printing is already used by militaries worldwide to produce parts for aircraft and ships, it has yet to produce a modern military-grade turbofan jet engine. – The National Interest 

Linette Lopez writes: The United States and China are breaking up. It does not matter whether a Republican or a Democrat occupies the White House. Though the two world powers have spent years trying to make a mutually beneficial relationship work, trust has disappeared, making cooperation untenable. Now the two sides are on course to restructure their relationship — not a total divorce, but an uncomfortable period of distancing in which new boundaries are created. – Business Insider

Stephen Roach writes: A top priority for the incoming US administration of president-elect Joe Biden will be deciding how to handle the conflict with China. What started as a trade fight morphed into a tech war and is now at an impasse. A new approach is urgently needed. It should have three major elements. – Financial Times

David Axe writes: The U.S. Navy needs better surveillance and reconnaissance systems if it’s to have any chance of detecting a Chinese build-up in the Western Pacific in the weeks or days preceding a possible major war. – The National Interest

Matthew R. Crouch writes: The People’s Republic of China is joined today in revisionist policies by a Russian Federation that is belligerent in its decline. Both are openly expansionist and exercise influence over their neighbors without consideration for fairness, justice, or freedom. Together, they present dilemmas from which the world cannot withdraw. If the United States elects not to live up to its own ideals, declines to lead and abandons allies and others to this contest without our great power, that would be a tragedy. – The National Interest

Asia

Many hold out hope that their sons may be in hiding or lying wounded in steep, mountainous terrain since a Russian-brokered cease-fire was signed last month to end the worst fighting over the enclave since the 1990s. – Washington Post

Eight people in Hong Kong have been arrested, including three on suspicion of violating a national security law, over a protest at a university last month, police said on Monday, as the government intensifies a crackdown on pro-democracy activists. – Reuters

Former Hong Kong democracy lawmaker and activist Ted Hui, who fled to Britain after facing criminal charges, said some of his bank accounts had been unfrozen and he had moved funds swiftly from HSBC because he no longer trusted the global bank. – Reuters

Washington’s point man on North Korea, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, is scheduled to visit Seoul next week to meet with South Korean officials, five sources with knowledge of the trip told Reuters. – Reuters

A Hong Kong pro-democracy politician who fled overseas is being investigated for national security crimes, police said Sunday, confirming they have frozen some of his bank accounts. The revelation comes as international banks in the semi-autonomous city become increasingly tangled up in political tensions as the US threatens to sanction businesses that aid Beijing’s crackdown on dissent. – Agence France-Presse

Australia lacks an overarching approach to handling a “much more assertive” China, and needs a plan for economic diversification and liaising with Asian allies to handle the emerging superpower, opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong said. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Mr. Biden should remedy that quickly once he takes office. He should look for concrete ways to show solidarity with Australia, such as sanctioning Chinese officials involved in the campaign against the country. He should back Australia’s calls for an investigation of the coronavirus’s origins, which is not only justified but sorely needed. And perhaps he should invite Americans to sample a bottle or two of Australian wine. – Washington Post

Europe

Ms. von der Leyen said Britain and the European Union would send their negotiators back to the table in a last-ditch effort to close the gaps holding up an agreement on their post-Brexit trading relationship. – New York Times

More than 300 people were detained in the Belarusian capital on Sunday, where crowds of people took to the streets for the 18th consecutive weekend, demanding the ouster of the country’s authoritarian leader who won a sixth term in office in an election widely seen as rigged. – Associated Press

Romanians voted Sunday in a legislative election that many hope will restore some stability in one of the poorest European Union nations after five years of political and social turmoil. – Associated Press

Norway’s deputy central bank governor with responsibility for the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has been forced to resign due to security concerns over his Chinese wife. – Financial Times

Poland’s frequent clashes with the EU since the ruling Law and Justice party came to power five years ago have always had the potential to trigger a debate about the country’s future in the bloc. As Warsaw tussles with Brussels over the EU’s €1.8tn budget and recovery package, such a discussion has now flared up. – Financial Times

The UK government’s plans for a new trade border in the Irish Sea are in a “mess” and will not be operationally ready by January 1 despite the creation of a £200m support service, Northern Irish trade bodies have warned. – Financial Times

Top EU diplomat Helga Schmid was on Friday appointed secretary general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). – Politico

Poland’s coalition government is showing fissures over its decision to block the European Union’s $2.2 trillion spending plan, with a junior coalition partner repeating a stance that puts him at odds with the shot-calling ruling party. – Bloomberg

Editorial: That’s what the news media does, at home and abroad. It is its function and duty to ask questions about the roots of racism, ethnic anger and the spread of Islamism among Western Muslims, and to critique the effectiveness and impact of government policies. When terrorists strike, however, there is only one response. On that front, Mr. Macron, France is not alone.  – New York Times

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya writes: I hope to travel to Washington during the inauguration week to personally thank the current administration for its work to help the people of Belarus. At the same time, I look forward to developing a strong relationship with the new administration in order to facilitate democratic transition in Belarus. Together, the free world will prevail. – Washington
Post

James Stavridis writes: Let’s be honest: In the immediate future, reinvigorating relations with Europe will take a lower priority than dealing with Covid-19 domestically and getting China policy right internationally. Still, it needs to be high on the list. The motto of the U.S. military’s European Command is a simple two words we picked over a decade ago: “Stronger Together.” It’s a truth the Biden administration would do well to heed. – Bloomberg

Max Hastings writes: Nonetheless, a working relationship between the two nations, rooted in common security concerns and ancestry, should remain serviceable to both. Our soldiers are unlikely again to land together on the beaches of Normandy, as they did in 1944. But it will be a sadness, indeed, should we not remain on the same side of history’s barricades through tough decades ahead. – Bloomberg

Latin America

The election could significantly weaken Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader and legislator who in 2019 launched a bold effort to oust Mr. Maduro by declaring himself the country’s interim president, a move backed by the United States and dozens of other countries. – New York Times

Venezuela’s authoritarian regime staged congressional elections Sunday that were expected to give President Nicolás Maduro complete control of all levers of power in a vote the country’s opposition and its supporters, including the U.S., rejected as fraudulent. – Wall Street Journal

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador submitted a proposal this week that would remove diplomatic immunity from U.S. agents in Mexico. – The Hill

Hopes that a group of young independent Cuban cultural figures could hold a rare dialogue with the authorities about freedom of expression have been dashed after the communist government vetoed some of them from attending, accusing them of being US puppets. – Financial Times

US officials have watched warming ties between Iran and Venezuela with concern, expressing alarm over what they say are Iran’s military presence in and arms sales to the South American country. – Business Insider

Cybersecurity

The Justice Department is in talks with lawyers for a top Chinese tech executive under house arrest in Canada to resolve U.S. criminal fraud charges in a case that has strained Beijing’s relations with Ottawa and Washington. – Washington Post

The Trump administration on Friday opted not to grant ByteDance a new extension of an order requiring the Chinese company to divest TikTok’s U.S. assets, but talks will continue over the short video-sharing app’s fate, two sources briefed on the matter said. – Reuters

Government officials and health-care groups are growing increasingly concerned about nation states and criminal hackers targeting the supply chain for COVID-19 vaccines. – The Hill

The former head of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said Sunday that adversaries have attempted to steal intellectual property related to the coronavirus vaccine. – CNBC

The Trump administration is weighing an executive order that would let the government restrict the international operations of U.S. cloud computing companies such as Amazon and Microsoft in an effort to protect against foreign cyberattacks, people familiar with the matter tell POLITICO. – Politico

Roger Cochetti writes: Either a continued voluntary or a new mandatory approach to information sharing has serious consequences for the nature of the internet and its relationship with governments everywhere — and for the security of the internet on which our society, economy and security increasingly depend. Consequently, the issue of mandatory versus voluntary cyber threat information sharing will probably remain among the most important — yet least publicized or understood — internet issues facing both industry and governments. – The Hill

James Stavridis writes: We therefore must make sure the nation is prepared for cyberattacks, and protecting the frontlines will clearly require private-public cooperation. To do this most effectively, we must move the nascent public-private partnership model beyond basic information-sharing to true operational collaboration, with the government and the private sector working shoulder-to-shoulder. Only then can we understand, prevent, defend against and indeed preempt attackers. – The Hill

Bonnie Glick writes: Most of all, we want emerging nations to adopt a model for technological innovation that mirrors our own: open-ended, intellectually curious, private-sector led, iterative, competitive, and rooted in the rigors and opportunities of the free market. That’s the path of development we champion and for which I am certain America will always be known.  – The Hill

Elisabeth Braw writes: But while liberal democracies’ openness indisputably makes them vulnerable, targeted companies are not alone. They can team up with (gulp) rivals to share incident updates, a painful but mutually beneficial step. And governments can invite them to be part of a combined shield helping to keep the country safe. That includes regular consultations and even grayzone exercises, a concept I proposed this fall which is already being implemented by a NATO member state.  – The National Interest