Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump sided firmly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, threatening new attacks against Iran, blaming Hamas for the stalled Gaza cease-fire, and calling again for Netanyahu to receive a pardon. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel presented a united front on Monday, papering over their differences on how to carry out the Gaza peace plan while heaping praise on each other. – New York Times 

Israel’s Parliament passed new legislation on Monday formally removing diplomatic immunity from the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, part of an ongoing Israeli crackdown against the body. – New York Times

Israel has defended its formal recognition of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, but several countries at the United Nations questioned whether the move aimed to relocate Palestinians from Gaza or to establish military bases. – Reuters

Greece, Israel and Cyprus will step up joint air and naval exercises in the eastern Mediterranean in 2026, deepening their defence cooperation, Greek military officials and a senior source said on Monday. – Reuters

Boeing (BA.N), was given an $8.6 billion contract for the F-15 Israel Program, the Pentagon said on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Israeli President Isaac Herzog had told him a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “on its way,” an assertion Herzog’s office was quick to challenge. – Reuters

Hamas confirmed on Monday that its armed wing spokesperson, Abu Ubaida, and then Gaza chief Mohammed Sinwar were killed in the Gaza war earlier this year. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump and his top advisers asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change Israel’s policies in the occupied West Bank during their meeting, Axios said on Monday. – Reuters

The leader of Yemen’s Houthi rebels warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a “military target,” according to a statement from the Iran-backed group published Sunday. – Agence France-Presse 

After heavy rain and flooding exposed a terror tunnel in northern Gaza, IDF Golani Brigade soldiers discovered the site several hundred meters from the border, The Jerusalem Post has learned. – Jerusalem Post 

The IDF has started a process for probing several post-October 7 massacre stages of the war, including the question of why Hamas managed to survive the many invasions of Gaza. – Jerusalem Post 

Israel has officially conscripted its new SIGMA 155 self-propelled howitzer and Iron Beam laser system, the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced. – Defense News

Editorial: An international stabilization force may help, but Mr. Trump was mistaken to say that 59 countries “want to go in and wipe out Hamas.” Contributing states have made clear they won’t confront Hamas. Turkish forces, about which Mr. Trump was asked, would be least likely to do so. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan praises Hamas as “holy warriors.”It’s clear from media leaks that some of Mr. Trump’s advisers would like him to restrain Israel across all fronts. But the Israeli public (and not merely Mr. Netanyahu’s government) has taken from the war of Oct. 7, 2023, one lesson above all: It can never again allow jihadists to reign and build up military power with impunity on its borders. That’s a policy worthy of U.S. support. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel J. Samet writes: He understands that Israeli strength is American strength and is unafraid to show support for Israel, no matter how politically incorrect. For his part, Netanyahu is a spokesman for the US-Israel relationship like no other. He is also a keen student of history who appreciates that bilateral ties must keep up with the times if they are to keep flourishing. The US and Israel have come a long way since December 1962, when Israel was a weak, vulnerable country in need of American assistance to survive. How better to honor the special relationship of Kennedy and Meir’s day than with a new one befitting a new chapter? – American Enterprise Institute

Abdulla Al Junaid writes: While Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on showcasing tangible security gains, President Trump’s strategic calculus operates on a broader horizon. The December 29 summit isn’t primarily about Israel. By securing a viable implementation mechanism for phase two, President Trump can confidently redirect his attention to Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, and South America, knowing Gaza’s security framework rests in capable regional hands. The Gaza peace plan’s success won’t be measured solely by Israeli or Palestinian satisfaction, but by how effectively it enables America to address the wider constellation of global challenges. – National Interest

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine said President Trump had offered to provide it with security guarantees for 15 years after the end of the war, a duration that Kyiv wants at least doubled to deter Russia from future aggression. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a call with President Donald Trump on Monday, accused Ukraine of attacking one of his residences, a claim Ukrainian leaders denied and called a distraction from peace talks and a pretext for further Russian attacks. – Washington Post  

With talks on ending the Ukraine war making little progress on the toughest issues, Russia issued a dramatic threat on Monday to harden its stance, linking the potential change to what the Kremlin called a failed Ukrainian drone attack overnight targeting a rural residence of President Vladimir V. Putin. – New York Times 

The Kremlin said on Monday that Ukraine should withdraw its troops from the part of Donbas that it still controls if it wanted peace, and that if Kyiv did not strike a deal then it would lose yet more territory. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin on Monday told his army to press on with a campaign to take full control of the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine after a Russian commander said Moscow’s forces were 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) from its biggest city. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that a 20-point peace plan to end Russia’s war should be put to a referendum in Ukraine. – Reuters

The head of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine said on Monday the facility could restart power generation by the middle of 2027 if the war concludes in the near future. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview published late on Monday, said the West must understand that Russia holds the strategic initiative in Ukraine as discussions move forward on a possible settlement. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed into law changes that give Russia the right to ignore judgements in criminal cases issued by foreign and international courts amid Ukrainian and European attempts to punish Moscow for its actions in Ukraine. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that a Ukrainian drone attack on a presidential residence in the Novgorod region would toughen Russia’s position on a possible peace deal to end the fighting. – Reuters

Russia has begun to wind down its provocations in eastern Europe to avoid escalating tensions with NATO, said a top intelligence official from one of the alliance’s frontline members which has frequently raised the alarm about threats from Moscow. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Mr. Zelensky has nonetheless continued his efforts to negotiate an end to the war. Mr. Putin has refused to stop fighting until Ukraine and its partners agree to every Russian demand. The challenge for Mr. Putin has been how to say no to Mr. Trump’s attempts at a peace deal while still portraying Ukraine as the obstacle. Mr. Trump is onto something when he talks about the timing of this story. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The best approach, therefore, is to bolster shaky promises with ample provisions for arming Ukraine like a porcupine, helping it build “drone walls” and providing its army with sufficient artillery and medium-range missiles to deter future Russian revanchism.On Monday, Moscow was already telegraphing its intention to scupper peace talks after claiming Ukraine lobbed drones at one of Putin’s residences — an attack Kyiv denies. If Putin balks again, it won’t be because Zelensky is refusing the terms for a just and lasting peace. The Ukrainians are paying an enormous price yet clearly willing to fight on. – Washington Post 

Ben Hall writes: Russia has rejected the broad terms of the peace proposal revised by American and Ukrainian negotiators. But it blames Ukraine and European allies for sabotaging the original 28-point plan, rather than reject Trump’s peace push outright. Trump and Putin agreed to set up two working groups on Ukraine, which looks like a way to spin out the peace process, not bring it to a head. The Europeans hope that once a peace formula is agreed between Kyiv and Washington and transmitted to Moscow, Russia will be exposed as the real obstacle to peace. As Zelenskyy put it on Friday: “If Russia does not agree, it means the pressure is insufficient.” Trump, it seems, still needs persuading. There is no end in sight for this struggle. Nor sadly to Russia’s killing machine. – Financial Times

Nina Khrushcheva writes: These people resist repression every day. So do countless others in acts of defiance that expose the ludicrousness and brutality of the regime. A few months ago, a brave man in Saint Petersburg painted graffiti with the 1960s Soviet slogan “Peace on Earth”; he is now being investigated for extremism and terrorism. Walking the grounds of the Saint Savior Transfiguration Monastery in Yaroslavl, an ancient town 160 miles north of Moscow, one encounters a large stone on which someone painted a bird in yellow and blue—the colors of the Ukrainian flag. In the town of Murom, 200 miles east, a clothing store attracts visitors by displaying clusters of balloons in eye-catching colors—black and purple, white and red, and yellow and blue. When I asked if the last pairing was deliberate, a saleswoman winked and said, “Well, if an official comes in, I’ll do a Marilyn Monroe smile and say, ‘These colors look so pretty together.’” – Foreign Affairs

Peter J. Wallison writes: Moreover, those who overthrow Putin will be blamed for the loss of the war in Ukraine, which will swiftly follow. Thus, it is better to wait until Putin dies than to try to overthrow him, and Putin knows that as long as he is alive and fighting for Mother Russia, he is safe from attack. But, if he were ever to end the war—agreeing to some kind of settlement with his good friend Donald Trump—it would mean the end of his life. So in a very real sense, Putin is fighting for his life by keeping the war going, and Trump will never get that Nobel Prize as long as Putin succeeds. – American Enterprise Institute

Andreas Umland writes: Those countries that currently assist Ukraine and will provide security guarantees should transform their wartime aid into peacetime military support for Ukraine, and can justify such a redesignation as designed to deter Russia from re-escalation. Neither multinational peacekeepers, a European “reassurance force,” nor other seemingly innovative approaches currently appear to be realistic instruments for implementing future security guarantees for Ukraine. Instead, the optimal support for Ukraine before and after a ceasefire will be largely similar. – National Interest

Saudi Arabia

The Saudi military said its air force bombed weapons shipments arriving at a Yemeni port city from the United Arab Emirates, escalating tensions between two oil-rich Persian Gulf allies that are increasingly torn over conflicting goals in Yemen’s ongoing civil war. – Wall Street Journal

Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday its national security was a red line, hours after an airstrike on Yemen’s southern port of Mukalla by a Saudi-led coalition, and gave UAE forces 24 hours to leave, in Riyadh’s strongest language against Abu Dhabi yet. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s finance ministry has increased its stake in the country’s biggest construction firm Binladin International Holding Group to 86.38%, state television reported on Monday, describing it as a debt-conversion deal. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Monday apologised to the families of the 179 people who died in a Jeju Airi crash a year ago, vowing to reveal the truth behind the worst aircraft accident on the country’s soil. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a factory that produces multiple rocket launchers and ordered increased output of the weapons system that would be the mainstay of the country’s modernised long-range artillery, state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit China from January 4 to 7 and meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the Blue House said on Tuesday, aiming to keep up momentum to restore ties. – Reuters

South Korea’s nuclear regulator approved the start of operations at a reactor that’s been under construction for nearly a decade, even as the government reassesses the long-term role of atomic energy. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Khaleda Zia, Bangladesh’s first female prime minister, whose decades-long rivalry with another woman at the helm of a dueling political dynasty shaped the fate of the young South Asian nation, died on Tuesday at a hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital. She was believed to be 80. – New York Times

When India overtook China as the world’s largest producer of rice this year, the country’s politicians and agriculture lobby marked the moment by praising resilient farmers and innovative government policy. India has nearly doubled the amount of rice it exported over the past decade, with shipments crossing 20 million metric tons in the latest fiscal year. – Reuters

India is seeking over $30 billion in compensation from Reliance Industries and BP in an arbitration case for gas it says the companies failed to produce from offshore fields, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: Somaliland’s Berbera Port can be an important logistical hub, while its adjacent airport can ferry Indian businessmen and supplies almost anywhere in Africa. India is a great power, but too often it hampers its influence and interests by acting as a reactive one rather than a proactive one. To follow Israel and open an embassy in Somaliland would send a signal that India determines its own destiny, stands by allies, and no longer accepts China’s arbitrary demands and positions. It is time for the Tiranga to fly officially over an Indian High Commission in Somaliland. – American Enterprise Institute

Shantanu Roy-Chaughury writes: China remains indispensable to India’s growth, but the degree of that indispensability is not predetermined by interdependence alone. Structure matters as much as scale. India’s experience demonstrates that asymmetric interdependence creates strategic space, though whether that space can be effectively occupied remains an open question with implications extending beyond South Asia to any country navigating rivalry in an interconnected world where complete decoupling proves neither desirable nor feasible. – War on the Rocks

Giorgio Cafiero writes: At the same time, Afghan Taliban leaders seem to calculate that, in the event of another collapse of their rule, TTP-controlled areas inside Pakistan could serve as a critical fallback sanctuary should external intervention recur. For Islamabad, this continued tolerance, if not tacit backing, of the TTP is unacceptable. Consequently, the impasse is likely to persist throughout 2026. More airstrikes, recurrent border clashes, and a growing reliance on proxy actors on both sides of the frontier will likely continue to mark this messy border conflict. – National Interest

Europe

The UK government on Monday said that it does not recognise the independence of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, and reaffirmed its support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. – Reuters

Austria should rethink its opposition to a trade deal between the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc, the country’s central bank chief Martin Kocher was quoted as saying on Monday. – Reuters

Belarus on Tuesday released video of what it said was the deployment on its territory of the Russian nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile system, a development that bolsters Moscow’s ability to deliver missiles across Europe. – Reuters

It’s hard to ignore Bulgaria’s heart-on-sleeve embrace of the European Union. The bloc’s blue flag with gold stars flies at institutions more prominently than in other countries in Eastern Europe. Pro-euro billboards paid for by the government dot Sofia’s streets and metro stations. – Bloomberg

Italy’s government agreed to continue sending military aid to Ukraine next year, capping months of infighting in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s coalition. – Bloomberg

The Americas

President Trump said Monday that the U.S. recently carried out an attack on a dock area in Venezuela where drugs are loaded onto boats and trafficked across international waters, claiming that a “major explosion” had occurred. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump says Nicolás Maduro is running out of time. But as U.S. warships amass off Venezuela’s coast and Washington escalates a partial oil blockade, the embattled strongman is signaling something very different: that he expects to outlast American pressure. – Wall Street Journal

The C.I.A. conducted a drone strike on a port facility in Venezuela last week, according to people briefed on the operation, a development that suggests an aggressive new phase of the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against the Maduro government has begun. – New York Times 

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who came to power in 2019 and is now serving a second term which critics have called unconstitutional, said he was open to staying in power for another decade. – Reuters

China is seriously dissatisfied with the demolition of a Chinese monument by the local government in Panama’s Arraijan district in West Panama Province, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday. – Reuters

Argentine President Javier Milei will visit the United Kingdom in April or May, according to an official from the president’s office. – Reuters

The candidate who lost Honduras’s November election by only several thousand votes, Salvador Nasralla, filed a challenge to the results with the country’s electoral tribunal after his Trump-backed opponent won. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

The U.S. government has granted an annual licence to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to bring in chip manufacturing equipment to their facilities in China for 2026, two people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Meta has said it is buying the artificial intelligence start-up Manus, in a rare example of a US technology group scooping up a cutting-edge AI platform with Chinese roots. – Financial Times

U.S. and Australian cyber agencies confirmed that hackers are exploiting a vulnerability that emerged over the Christmas holiday and is impacting data storage systems from the company MongoDB. – The Record 

Two U.S. banks have come forward to warn customers they were impacted by an August ransomware attack on a popular financial software company. – The Record 

Kevin Kirkwood writes: A unified federal approach to AI could provide benefits across the entire AI ecosystem. Innovation can expand because smaller organizations are no longer hindered by conflicting state requirements. Security would improve because consistent expectations eliminate weak links and close opportunities for misuse. Trust will grow as transparent interpretable systems become the norm rather than the exception. AI does not recognize borders. Regulation should reflect that reality. Unified guidance does not slow the evolution of technology. It creates a stronger, safer, and more sustainable environment that supports responsible innovation for everyone. – ⁠Cyberscoop 

Erin D. Dumbacher writes: Policymakers might, for example, require future presidents to confer with congressional leaders before they launch a nuclear first strike or require a period of time for intelligence professionals to validate the information on which the decision is being based. Because the United States has capable second-strike options, accuracy should take precedence over speed. AI already has the potential to deceive key decision-makers and members of the nuclear chain of command into seeing an attack that isn’t there. In the past, only authentic dialogue and diplomacy averted misunderstandings among nuclear armed states. Policies and practices should protect against the pernicious information risks that could ultimately lead to doomsday. – Foreign Affairs