Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said his country could reach an agreement with Syria—like the one President Trump called for a day earlier—if Damascus agreed to respect a buffer zone Israel says is crucial to its security. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli forensic services concluded that remains handed over by Hamas on Tuesday were not those of the last two hostages in Gaza, the office of Israel’s prime minister said. – Reuters

Palestinian militant group Hamas on Tuesday handed over the remains of one of the last two deceased hostages still in Gaza, the International Committee of the Red Cross said, under terms of the October ceasefire deal. – Reuters

Israel will complete the handover of the Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile defense system to Germany on Wednesday, marking the first time another country will have independent access to the high-end military asset. – Bloomberg

A Doctors Without Borders official has pleaded for countries to open their doors to tens of thousands of Gazans in dire need of medical evacuation, warning that hundreds have already died waiting. – Agence-France Presse

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Donald Trump to continue assisting him in securing a pardon from President Isaac Herzog, during a phone call between the two leaders, US media reported on Tuesday. – Times  of Israel

The military on Tuesday completed a reorganization of its C4I and Cyber Defense Directorate, with a new artificial intelligence unit and an expanded electronic warfare array that will further enhance Israel’s defensive cyber capabilities, including countering drone attacks. – Times of Israel

Two soldiers were lightly injured Tuesday morning in a stabbing attack near the northern West Bank settlement of Ateret, the Israel Defense Forces said. The assailant was shot dead. – Times of Israel

The United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution calling on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights in a Tuesday vote.  Some 123 countries voted in favor of the resolution, seven voted against it, and 41 abstained. – Jerusalem Post

There are significant gaps in preparedness against terrorist attacks on the Dan region’s light rail, State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman said on Tuesday in a report on the country’s state of security. – Jerusalem Post

During raids at the offices of the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC) in Ramallah and Hebron in the West Bank on Monday, security forces arrested eight wanted individuals, along with 14 others who had been summoned for questioning, and confiscated inciting materials, the IDF stated on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Knesset Interior Affairs Committee convened on Wednesday morning to discuss the burning of waste in the Arab territories in Judea and Samaria. – Arutz Sheva

Hamas leaders in Qatar convened this week for a mourning ceremony for Abdallah Hamad, a Hamas operative killed by the IDF in the tunnels under Rafah. Hamad was the son of Ghazi Hamad, a senior member of Hamas’ political bureau and a figure who has reportedly served on the terror group’s negotiating team. – Ynet

The first 11 months of 2025 saw exits worth approximately $70 billion recorded in Israel across about 110 deals, according to a new annual report by Poalim Tech and Dealigence. The report also shows that a significant portion of the transactions were carried out by Israeli companies acquiring other Israeli companies. The data reflects activity recorded between January and mid-November 2025. – Calcalist

Editorial: This laser will not end hatred. It will not erase ideology. No system is perfect, and no honest official would pretend otherwise. But it will protect more of our children, our elderly, our hospitals, and our schools. In this region, that is no small achievement. It is a revolution in the ethics of defense. If the world is wise, it will not study the Iron Beam only as a new weapon. It will see it as a warning and as an indication that the future will belong less to those who can destroy fastest, and more to those who can defend best. – Jerusalem Post

Ohad Tal writes: As the operational reality on the ground shifts and as political conditions change – in Israel, in the United States, and around the world – the timeframe for Jerusalem to act is narrowing. This is the moment to dismantle Hamas’s remaining capabilities. Israel can and must finish the mission, not out of ambition, but out of necessity. The responsibility lies with us alone, and postponing it will only increase the risks we face. – Jerusalem Post

Eran Ortal writes: There is, of course, an undeniable benefit to the fact that the Iranians are out of Syria, Hezbollah is now isolated in Lebanon, and at least some of Israel’s concerns regarding Gaza may end up being alleviated. But none of this should obscure the bigger picture. The region’s politically moderate bloc of nations is now encircled by not one but two radical and ambitious axes. That new regional structure and those adversaries are here to stay. – National Interest

Russia and Ukraine

The grainy footage—which Ukrainian intelligence says shows a strike on a Russia-linked oil tanker—offers a glimpse into Kyiv’s widening campaign against Russia’s energy architecture. Ukraine is now targeting the Kremlin’s shadow fleet, which relies on an opaque web of ships to skirt sanctions on its oil exports and reap funds for its war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

A five-hour meeting at the Kremlin between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner concluded without reaching an agreement to end the war, but the talks were “useful” and “constructive,” a senior Russian official said. – Wall Street Journal

After the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991, Ukraine gained independence, its own constitution and international recognition. It also inherited a massive Soviet nuclear stockpile — some 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads and thousands of “tactical” nuclear weapons, along with 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative. – Washington Post

Russian President Vladimir Putin met U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner in the Kremlin on Tuesday for talks on a possible way to end the deadliest European conflict since World War Two. – Reuters

Russia and the U.S. did not reach a compromise on a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine after a five-hour Kremlin meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s top envoys, the Kremlin said on Wednesday. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin warned European powers on Tuesday that if they started a war with Russia then Moscow was ready to fight and that the defeat of European powers would be so absolute that there would be no one left to even negotiate a peace deal. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened on Tuesday to sever Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to drone attacks on tankers of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea. – Reuters

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have refined a framework peace agreement developed in Geneva during their recent talks in Florida, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday, adding Ukraine wants its European allies more involved in the process. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday he had some optimism around peace efforts due to the speed of the process and the United States’ interest in finding a solution. – Reuters

India’s imports of Russian oil may decline for only “a brief period” as Moscow plans to boost supplies, using sophisticated technology to avert the impact of Western sanctions, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday. – Reuters

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte brushed off fresh concern Tuesday about the United States’ commitment to the military organization on the eve of a meeting of allied foreign ministers focused on Russia’s war against Ukraine. – Associated Press

Moving between damp basements and muddy dugouts to fend off constant Russian attacks in the nearly 4-year-old war, exhausted Ukrainian soldiers say their motivation is fortified by knowing they’re fighting for higher cause: the defense of their homeland. – Defense News

Eli Lake writes: So instead of saying nyet, Putin has dispatched Dmitriev to say “perhaps.” If Ukraine agrees to relinquish territory Russia has yet to conquer, if Ukraine agrees to limit the size of its military, then the war will end and everyone can make a lot of money. For Trump, this all sounds like a chance for peace. For Ukraine, it sounds like submission. And for Putin, it’s another way to save the war he started 11 years ago. – The Free Press

Kateryna Odarchenko writes: Ukraine’s energy system sits at the intersection of war, reform, and geopolitical realignment. Russian strikes will continue to degrade infrastructure, but the country’s long-term direction is clear: a move toward Western standards of governance, closer integration with the US and Europe, and the transformation of its energy sector from a fragile wartime system into a future regional hub.  The challenge for this winter is to endure. And the challenge for the coming decade is to modernize, corporatize, and integrate — ensuring Ukraine emerges from the war not only as a survivor but as a strategic energy actor in the Euro-Atlantic community. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Lebanon

Pope Leo bade farewell to Lebanon on Tuesday with a fervent appeal to leaders across the Middle East to listen to their people’s cries for peace and to change course away from the “horror of war”. – Reuters

Five years after losing her daughter in a devastating chemical explosion at Beirut’s port, Nelly El Helou said Pope Leo’s silent prayer at the site on Tuesday was enough to renew hopes that those responsible for the blast would be held to account. – Reuters

For the first time, an Israeli diplomat and a Lebanese diplomatic figure, both of whom are not military personnel, will take part in Wednesday’s meeting of the body overseeing the ceasefire in Naqoura, Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday met with US President Donald Trump’s envoy for Lebanon affairs, Morgan Ortagus, in Israel as border tensions with Lebanon intensify, according to Israeli officials. – Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah’s Unit 121 assassinated four Lebanese figures out of fear that they would expose links between the terror group and the 2020 Beirut Port explosion, IDF Arabic Spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee claimed on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Representatives from all 15 member states of the United Nations Security Council planned to travel the Middle East on Wednesday for the body’s first official visit to Syria and Lebanon. – New York Times

A Russian-flagged tanker loaded with sunflower oil reported a drone attack off the Turkish coast on Tuesday, but its 13 crew members were unharmed, Turkey’s maritime authority and the Tribeca shipping agency said. – Reuters

Exxon Mobil has approached the Iraqi oil ministry to express its interest in buying Russian firm Lukoil’s majority stake in the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, five Iraqi official sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

Police arrested prominent Tunisian opposition figure Ayachi Hammami at his home on Tuesday to enforce a five-year prison term on a conviction for conspiracy against state security. –Reuters

A Libyan man accused of crimes against humanity and war crimes in a Tripoli prison has been sent by Germany to the International Criminal Court to face justice. – Associated Press

Hanin Ghaddar and Assaf Orion write: Targeting all of the above pillars is essential to preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding itself—a threat that Israel is no longer willing to tolerate. Washington should therefore work on two tracks to salvage the ceasefire agreement and prevent another war: the immediate track of disarmament, and a longer-term track to establish the conditions for peace between Israel and Lebanon. – Washington Institute

China

China is flexing its muscles, showing new confidence fueled by a belief that President Trump’s retreat from overseas commitments and his focus on the Western Hemisphere and trade deals create unique opportunities for Beijing. – Wall Street Journal

China’s diplomatic full-court press against Japan over its support for Taiwan has targeted President Trump, the United Nations and, now, two of Tokyo’s closest European partners. – New York Times

China has issued the first batch of new rare earth export licences that should accelerate shipments to certain customers, a source said on Tuesday, fulfilling a key outcome of the summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. – Reuters

Shipments of U.S. crops to China are accelerating after a tense tariff war had stalled trade for months, with at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

China’s military sometimes simulates attacks on foreign naval vessels in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan shares intelligence with international partners when they operate in those waters, a senior Taiwan security official said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Emmanuel Macron heads to China on Wednesday for a three-day state visit focusing on trade and diplomatic talks as the French president seeks to enlist Beijing in pressuring Russia toward a ceasefire with Ukraine. – Associated Press

China has upgraded surveillance and electronic warfare systems across several occupied reefs in the disputed South China Sea as it seeks to strengthen its defenses and expand intelligence capabilities, a new report shows. – Bloomberg

China condemned the UK for again delaying a decision on whether it can open a new embassy in London, escalating a dispute just before Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s expected visit next month. – Bloomberg

Asia

The raucous rally was called by demonstrators to protest one of the biggest corruption scandals in the Philippines. One of the speakers was President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s older sister, who was expected to criticize the plundering of a public works budget under her brother’s watch. – New York Times

Australia’s flame-haired populist Senator Pauline Hanson and her anti-immigration party have rocketed up opinion polls, nearing a peak seen three decades ago when she first entered politics and pushed conservative parties to harden border policies. –Reuters

Hong Kong’s government will press ahead with a “patriots only” legislative election scheduled for Sunday, despite doubts over turnout from a local population still reeling from the Chinese-run city’s deadliest fire in decades that has killed at least 156 people. – Reuters

Taiwan is looking forward to re-establishing ties with former ally Honduras and has been in touch with both of the presidential candidates who are friendly towards Taipei, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Wednesday. –Reuters

Some Hong Kong residents forced to flee their homes as a deadly fire closed in a week ago returned to the scorched complex on Wednesday to retrieve belongings, as others struggled to rebuild lives after a disaster that killed at least 156 people. – Reuters

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 will resume on December 30, Malaysia’s transport ministry said on Wednesday, more than a decade after the Beijing-bound flight disappeared in one of the world’s greatest aviation mysteries. – Reuters

Opium poppy cultivation in war-torn Myanmar has surged to its highest level in a decade, rising 17% in the past year as conflict and economic hardship push more farmers into the illicit trade, the United Nations said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Indonesia and the Netherlands on Tuesday signed a deal to repatriate two elderly Dutch prisoners convicted of drug offences, officials said, one of whom was on death row. – Reuters

Tajikistan is in talks with Russia and a Moscow-led regional security grouping about the possibility of Russia deploying troops to jointly patrol the volatile border with Afghanistan, three Tajik security sources told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Taiwan prosecutors said on Tuesday they had charged Tokyo Electron’s Taiwan unit with violating the National Security Act and the Trade Secrets Act after a former employee was indicted in August for alleged theft of trade secrets from chipmaker TSMC. – Reuters

Malaysia has amended its nuclear regulatory framework to require permits be obtained for all atomic energy activities including import, exports and transshipment of radioactive materials. – Reuters

Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said China is more frequently projecting military power further into the Pacific, in a speech highlighting the challenges Australia faces as it competes for influence in its neighbourhood. – Reuters

Hong Kong’s leader said on Tuesday a judge-led committee will investigate the cause of the city’s deadliest fire in decades and review oversight of building renovations blamed for fanning an inferno that killed at least 156 people. – Reuters

A senior Japanese national security official confirmed with a French foreign policy adviser that both nations would cooperate toward realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific, ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China, according to Japanese media reports. – Bloomberg

A Taiwanese drone firm held sea trials with six unmanned surface vessels last month ahead of a roughly $1 billion project that aims to procure up to 1,350 sea drones for coastal defense purposes against a potential Chinese invasion. – USNI News

Editorial: By the way, the fire department is a subordinate agency of Hong Kong’s Security Bureau, and the bureau’s Secretary is Chris Tang, who is also in charge of implementing the national-security law that outlaws dissent. On Saturday Beijing warned “anti-China and pro-chaos elements who attempt to ‘use disasters to disrupt Hong Kong’” would be “severely punished” under the same law. Hong Kongers have little recourse as authorities tolerate neither scrutiny nor criticism. – Wall Street Journal

Alicia Chen writes: The post–Cold War era of unchallenged American primacy is over, and a new period of global competition has taken its place. As the United States withdraws its foreign aid, understanding the subtleties of China’s economic statecraft is more important than ever. Policymakers must analyze where and how Chinese money flows. Doing so will allow the United States and its allies to gain valuable insights into Beijing’s strategic focus—and perhaps even begin building a more targeted and effective response. – Foreign Affairs

Michael Schiffer and Mark Simakovsky write: The C5+1 summit has opened a window. The instincts behind it are the right ones, and the desire to re-engage a strategically vital region should be welcomed across the political spectrum. But Central Asia has heard ambitious rhetoric before. The United States has the technology, capital, and policy tools to reclaim leadership in this critical region. By re-engaging in Central Asia, the United States can restore its relevance in the heart of Eurasia and demonstrate a competitive, results-oriented, and firmly grounded model of foreign economic engagement aligned with America’s national interest.  – National Interest

Africa

More than a week after the mass abduction of the 303 students from St. Mary’s, there is no indication who took them, or what they want with the children. – Wall Street Journal

Guinea-Bissau’s electoral commission said on Tuesday it was unable to complete the November 23 presidential election process after armed men seized ballots and vote tallies from its offices, while servers storing the results were destroyed. –Reuters

President Bola Tinubu nominated Nigeria’s former top general to replace the defence minister, who resigned amid a surge in mass kidnappings and Islamist attacks in the north that has led the president to declare a security emergency.-Reuters

A gunman hijacked a small turboprop plane belonging to an evangelical Christian aid group in South Sudan on Tuesday, demanding the pilot fly the aircraft to Chad, police said. The suspect was arrested hours later after the plane landed in a northern town. – Associated Press

Soldiers from the British Army allegedly committed crimes including rape, sexual assault and murder while training in Kenya, according to a parliamentary probe in the East African nation. – Bloomberg

North America

Dozens of Mexico’s most dangerous prisoners, cuffed hand and foot, boarded army jets under heavy guard this year, a rogue’s gallery of cartel leaders responsible for smuggling tons of heroin, fentanyl, cocaine and methamphetamine to insatiable U.S. buyers. – Wall Street Journal

Canada has joined a major European Union defense fund, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office said Monday, as the country looks to diversify its military spending away from the United States. – Associated Press

Canada will raise concerns about NATO’s approach to Arctic threats at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Anita Anand said. – Bloomberg

Connor Pfeiffer writes: Mexico is the only USMCA party that doesn’t have a screening process to review foreign investments, such as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., or Cfius. This creates a vulnerability that Chinese firms can exploit to circumvent U.S. tariffs and economic-security policies. A Mexican equivalent of Cfius would close this gap and allow all three countries to coordinate on potential foreign investment threats. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Four people were arrested over the hacking of 120,000 home security cameras in South Korea, whose footage was used to make sexually exploitative material, the National Police Agency said on Monday. – New York Times

Ireland’s media regulator began investigations into TikTok and LinkedIn on Tuesday over concerns that their illegal content reporting mechanisms are not easy to access or do not allow people to report child sexual abuse material anonymously. – Reuters

Google’s YouTube shared a “disappointing update” to millions of Australian users and content creators on Wednesday, saying it will comply with a world-first teen social media ban by locking out users aged under 16 from their accounts within days. – Reuters

Social media platforms must report monthly how many children’s accounts they close once Australia begins enforcing its 16-year age limit next week, a minister said Wednesday. – Associated Press

A House Republican introduced legislation Tuesday aimed at deterring cyberattacks against the United States at a time when the Trump administration is prioritizing the punishment of malicious hackers. – Cyberscoop

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming how governments serve their constituents — from optimizing emergency response to streamlining licensing and zoning. But as AI systems become more powerful and pervasive, the question of how to govern these tools responsibly is immediate. – Statescoop

The Iran-tied threat actor MuddyWater targeted critical infrastructure in Egypt and Israel with spyware that masqueraded as the classic Snake game, researchers say. – The Record

Apple plans to tell Indian officials it cannot comply with a government order requiring smartphone makers to preload a state-run “cyber safety” app on new devices, according to news reports. – The Record

The Department of Justice announced the dismantling of a website used by a scam center in Myanmar to siphon thousands of dollars from multiple victims. – The Record

Parmy Olson writes: The prevailing wisdom among governments is that AI companies should be left to self-govern. “Look, I don’t think anyone wants to put something into the world which they think would genuinely cause significant harm,” Sunak said. But unintended consequences often arise when technologists start off with the best intentions for humanity. Self-regulation works, until it doesn’t. – Bloomberg