Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas’s political leaders have been talking with their Palestinian rivals about how to govern Gaza and the West Bank after the war ends, a fraught negotiation that threatens to put them at odds with the militant wing fighting Israel. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military said it is adding forces to destroy tunnels and undertaking targeted raids aimed at Hamas’s leadership in southern Gaza, after visiting U.S. officials pressed for a tactical shift away from larger-scale operations. – Wall Street Journal

The U.N. Security Council failed again Tuesday to come up with a resolution calling for a stop to fighting in Gaza — at least for long enough to allow more humanitarian aid into the enclave — that would not be vetoed by the United States. – Washington Post

Heavy civilian casualties are the cost of Israel’s intense campaign to destroy Hamas in Gaza and the militants’ urban warfare strategy, Israeli military officials said, in the face of global alarm at the staggering toll from the bombing. – Reuters

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said his country is prepared to agree to a second humanitarian pause in fighting in exchange for the return of more hostages held by Hamas. – Bloomberg

The Israeli government has drawn up a new deal for the release of dozens of hostages from Gaza, according to an official with direct knowledge of the matter. – Politico

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is expected to visit Egypt on Wednesday to hold Gaza ceasefire talks, the AFP reported Tuesday, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted that any hostage deal must include all the remaining hostages in Gaza. – Agence France-Presse

Kamaal Aduan Hospital head Ahmad Kahlot of Jabliya in Gaza has confessed to the Shin Bet that Hamas took over his hospital as a military operations center, it was revealed on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Subhi Ferwana, who helped transfer tens of millions of dollars to benefit the Hamas terror organization, was recently killed in an IDF airstrike in Gaza, according to a Tuesday military statement. – Jerusalem Post

IDF Division 162 has finished completely dismantling Hamas’s three battalions of terror forces in the Jabalya area of northern Gaza, killing over 1,000 of Hamas’s forces and arresting 500 terrorists. – Jerusalem Post

Elusive Hamas military wing leader Muhammed Deif is in a much better physical shape than previously thought, a report said Wednesday morning, citing new IDF intelligence findings that indicate that the prevalent belief that he is paraplegic and nearly paralyzed is mistaken. – Times of Israel

IDF troops have twice managed to reach tunnels in Gaza in recent days where they believe Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was hiding just before they arrived, Hebrew media outlets reported Tuesday. – Times of Israel

Bret Stephens writes: America has been good to Jews since 1655, when the Dutch West India Company rebuked Peter Stuyvesant for refusing trade permits to some Jewish newcomers in what was then New Amsterdam. But if there’s one lesson of Jewish history, it’s that nothing good stays — and why we still say, at the end of every Passover Seder, “Next year in Jerusalem.” – New York Times

Albert D. Friedberg writes: As a Diaspora Jew and Canadian citizen who is deeply invested in Israeli welfare and education, I fervently call on the Israeli government, as it deliberates on “the day after,” to prioritize the objective of dismantling UNRWA, and to work toward establishing alternative structures for education and social services. Addressing the extensive influence of UNRWA is not just strategic; it is imperative. The future security of Israel and the possibility of a lasting peace depend on decisively confronting and resolving this issue. – Jerusalem Post

Yohanan Plesner writes: If Israelis can achieve this lofty goal in the wake of the worst national catastrophe since the Holocaust, then they will have successfully turned the terrible tragedy of October 7 into a historic opportunity to not only defend the Jewish state but also to secure its democratic future for generations to come. – Foreign Affairs

Daniel Byman, Riley McCabe, Alexander Palmer, Catrina Doxsee, Mackenzie Holtzand, and Delaney Duff write: For example, in the United States, public support for Israel is eroding as the Biden administration faces increasing pressure to try to rein in Israel’s military campaign. In the Arab world, protests are pushing leaders to publicly distance themselves from Israel even though many strongly oppose Hamas. Under the right circumstances, protests and the public attitudes they represent may compel political leaders to reconsider their policies toward Israel and Palestine. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

David Ignatius writes: As the trauma of Oct. 7 eases slightly, it’s time for Israel to move toward a phase of this war where Palestinian civilians are less vulnerable to attack, more Israeli hostages can be released and planning can begin for what will be a massive rebuilding of the shattered landscape in Gaza — and the larger political order in the Middle East. – Washington Post

Colin P. Clarke writes: Hamas is a different organization after the Oct. 7 attacks, and intelligence officials and security services should adapt accordingly. As the holiday season enters full swing, a range of soft targets—from synagogues to Christmas markets—will remain vulnerable to potential attacks either inspired or directed by Hamas, which has openly declared its desire to ensure that the war does not remain contained to Gaza but also threatens Israel and its supporters worldwide. – Foreign Policy

Russia & Ukraine

During a break from fighting the Russians, an avuncular rifleman recalled how he was going for a haircut one day when he was press-ganged into joining the Ukrainian army. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — facing internal disputes at home and stalling aid from abroad — said Tuesday that military commanders have advised him that Ukraine will need to mobilize another half-million troops next year if it hopes to stop Russia’s continuing invasion. – Washington Post

Bouncing over choppy waters, the Ukrainian sea drones fanned out and sped toward the Russian warship in a swarming tactic that military experts say has proved lethal and effective against what had been a dominant naval power on the Black Sea. – New York Times

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia would be prepared to talk to Ukraine, the United States and Europe about the future of Ukraine if they wanted to, but that Moscow would defend its national interests. – Reuters

Russia launched its fifth air attack this month targeting Kyiv and air defence systems destroyed all drones on approach to the capital, Ukrainian military officials said early on Wednesday. – Reuters

After blunting Ukraine’s counteroffensive from the summer, Russia is building up its resources for a new stage of the war over the winter, which could involve trying to extend its gains in the east and deal significant blows to the country’s vital infrastructure. – Associated Press

Britain and France reiterated their determination Tuesday that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine ends in failure, with the U.K. foreign minister saying that Ukraine’s allies must better leverage their economic might to vastly outmatch Moscow’s war machine. – Associated Press

A Russian claiming to be a former officer with the Wagner Group has arrived in the Netherlands and says he wants to provide evidence to the International Criminal Court, which is investigating atrocities in the war in Ukraine. – Associated Press

Ukraine heads into the new year with dwindling weapons stockpiles and no guarantee of more US aid. – Bloomberg

Jim Hake writes: Philanthropist Howard Buffett’s foundation has invested more than $500 million to help Ukraine, including funding for demining agricultural fields and providing food and other essentials for families living in formerly occupied areas. Ukrainians need Washington to catch up with the American public and provide Kyiv the assistance it needs to win. If our political leaders hand Russia a victory, we will live with the consequences for generations. – Wall Street Journal

Peter Schroeder writes: And they must. Nuclear brinkmanship is a dangerous game, particularly with an authoritarian leader such as Putin. This is no time for complacency. For the world to head off nuclear war, countries will have to persuade Moscow that victory in Ukraine is simply not worth the costs of bringing the world to the precipice—or over it. – Foreign Affairs

Elizabeth Hoffman, Shivani Vakhariaand, and Jaehyun Han write: However, with U.S. elections around the corner, the politics of assistance to Ukraine will only become more difficult. Nevertheless, the Biden administration and congressional leaders of both parties should continue to remind American voters why supporting a Ukrainian victory—and Russian defeat—is in the interest of the United States. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Oz Katerji writes: This is why Europe, in particular, cannot afford to be complacent in the face of the rising threat of a Trump presidency. Opening EU accession talks for Ukraine is a good start, but until the bloc can match or outperform Russia’s current levels of ammunition production, the tide will start to turn against Ukraine if U.S. leadership on this war continues to falter. The truth is that U.S. leadership on this and on any other pressing international issue cannot be guaranteed. For Ukraine to stand a chance of victory, its allies must begin preparing for catastrophe now. – Foreign Policy

Arabian Peninsula

Hours after the U.S. announced a multinational task force to protect commercial traffic through the Red Sea, shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk said it would send its vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa instead. – Wall Street Journal

When the United States announced it was leading an international maritime task force to confront attacks on ships in the Red Sea, it did not take long for the group behind the attacks, the Houthi militia in Yemen, to dismiss the effort as a lost cause. – New York Times

Kuwait’s new Emir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who took over when his predecessor died on Saturday, was formally sworn in before parliament on Wednesday. – Reuters

James Stavridis writes: Countering well-trained, well-armed Houthi rebels guided by Iran will be difficult. But Operation Prosperity Guardian, using the lessons of Somali counterpiracy and updating them for new threats, is a step in the right direction. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: Other U.S. Air Force combat aircraft are also close by. It is also public knowledge that Britain’s Royal Air Force also has several Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets stationed out of a base in Cyprus. It is unclear whether France would join in any strikes against the Houthis, but it also has limited forces positioned to do so. Top line: It is increasingly likely that the U.S. and U.K. will carry out strikes against Houthi targets inside Yemen in the coming days. – Washington Examiner

China

Beijing intends to expand energy cooperation with Russia along all stages of production, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told the Russian state RIA news agency in an interview published on Tuesday. – Reuters

Taiwan will “handle” Chinese balloons flying nearby based on threat assessments, though officials believe the current wave is for weather purposes, driven by the prevailing winds at this time of year, the defence ministry in Taipei said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The United States has added 13 companies in China to a list of entities receiving U.S. exports that officials have been unable to inspect, according to a government notice posted on Tuesday. – Reuters

Editorial: China is remaking Hong Kong into another wasteland of liberty, where the exponents of free speech and assembly are called criminals and the authoritarians go free. Beijing should not be surprised as the city’s decline accelerates. – Washington Post

Joseph Bosco writes: Ambassador Burns also said in his interview that “No one in his right mind wants a war between America and China.” But the way to avoid that catastrophe is to engage in and win the information war China is already waging against us. “The crumbling of a regime always starts in the realm of ideas.” – The Hill

Minxin Pei writes: As no such reforms were implemented in 2023, the stalled economic recovery should not have come as a shock. Things could get worse for China in 2024 without new pro-market initiatives. Xi might then have to pray for a bit more luck. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: The Philippines is a treaty defense ally of the U.S. Beijing is ultimately engaged in exactly the same action as the Houthis: attacking the rights of free navigation in international waters. In turn, it should be an absurd proposition for the U.S. to defend Chinese shipping interests. If other members of the maritime initiative wish to do so, that is their prerogative. – Washington Examiner

Tom Rogan writes: Moreover, Beijing knows that the U.S. will ultimately resolve this crisis in a way that allows Beijing to avoid alienating Iran or risking its own forces. Regardless of these considerations, however, Beijing’s choice here underlines the utter falsity of its claim to seek only “win-win cooperation” and a stable multilateral international order. The underlying conclusion: America has fewer active allies than we might wish to believe. – Washington Examiner

Ian Johnson writes: As China faces difficult issues on many fronts—slow growth, demographic problems, and a tense foreign policy environment—events such as the white paper protests may be less outliers than harbingers of a new, more volatile time. But they also suggest that ordinary Chinese citizens may increasingly be ready to question the official narratives about their country’s past and develop new understandings of the forces that are shaping the country’s present and its future. – Foreign Affairs

Daniel Kochis writes: The Biden administration may be keen to sail on from such incidents, but Congress should demand more information and answers about what actually happened that night. If it was, indeed, sabotage, both Moscow and Beijing must be held to account for this latest attack on our Baltic allies. – The National Interest

Asia

The Philippine defense minister rebuked China on Wednesday for accusing his country of provoking tension and stirring trouble in the South China Sea, saying only Beijing believed what it was saying. – Reuters

New Zealand’s new prime minister, Christopher Luxon, said on Wednesday he would look into the benefits of joining a part of the AUKUS defence pact that focuses on shared military technology amid a “more challenging” world order. – Reuters

An Australia court on Tuesday found a Melbourne man who held prominent positions in Chinese community associations guilty of planning an act of foreign interference, the first verdict of its kind under a law introduced in 2018. – Reuters

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen expressed condolences to China on Tuesday and offered her government’s help after an earthquake killed more than 100 people on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. – Reuters

An ethnic armed group in northeastern Myanmar has seized a major crossing point for trade along the Chinese border, residents and media reports said. – Associated Press

Africa

Voters in the Democratic Republic of Congo—a vast nation that holds many of the minerals needed to build electric cars, smartphones and other devices central to modern life—are casting their ballots Wednesday in an election clouded by war in the country’s east and the world’s most deep-seated hunger crisis. – Wall Street Journal

Liberian President George Weah has intervened to reverse his country’s vote against a U.N. resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the West African nation’s information ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The African Development Bank (AfDB) will withdraw its international employees from Ethiopia following what it said was an assault on its staff members by government security forces, two sources familiar with the decision told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Sudan’s army said on Tuesday that its forces had withdrawn from positions in Wad Madani after the advance of its paramilitary rivals on the city triggered a mass exodus of civilians, some already displaced during an eight-month-old war. – Reuters

United States

Donald Trump can’t appear on the 2024 presidential primary ballot in Colorado because of his actions surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, the state’s highest court ruled Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal

Senator Brown is joining a growing bipartisan group of senators opposing the acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, which would put the iconic American company under the control of a Japanese competitor. – New York Sun

Editorial: And yet there is a path to success if Mr. Biden and the lawmakers maintain discreet conversations until the optimum moment to announce a plan and bring it to a vote soon after Congress’s recess ends on Jan. 8. Too many in politics, on both the left and right, are banking on the usual forces of dysfunction. Mr. Biden and GOP leaders can seize this chance to prove them wrong — and that pragmatism lives. – Washington Post

Defense

Faced with a dangerous shortfall in Ukraine’s air defenses and no easy resolution to the funding impasse in Congress, Washington has increasingly leaned on allies to provide urgent weapons support. – Washington Post

Denmark has reached a defence agreement with the United States that will allow U.S. soldiers and military equipment to be based on Danish soil, the country’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Czech firearms and ammunition producer Colt CZ plans to buy competitor Sellier & Bellot for $350 million, the former announced Monday. – Defense News

Jerry Hendrix writes: America’s failure to expand and maintain its fleet, or stand by its word, may have already entirely eroded U.S. naval deterrence. The Navy’s budget, size and force architecture all need urgent attention from Congress if the U.S. is to preserve its ability to deter its enemies. Failure to do so imperils global trade as well as America’s place in the world and the safety of its people. – Wall Street Journal

Wilson Beaver and Jim Fein write: Likewise, multiyear buys have consistently been shown to decrease costs over time, resulting in a positive outcome both for the military and for the American taxpayer. To its credit, this fiscal year’s National Defense Authorization Act approves six new munitions for multiyear procurement, but this funding ultimately still depends on congressional appropriators, who still haven’t fully funded the multiyear procurement of munitions authorized in last year’s NDAA. – Defense News