Fdd's overnight brief

December 19, 2025

In The News

Israel

President Trump’s phased peace plan for Gaza is struggling to move beyond its initial stage, hitting obstacles in Hamas’s refusal to disarm and Israel’s unwillingness to retreat from the enclave until that happens. – Wall Street Journal

Israel and Germany signed a contract worth around $3.1 billion to expand the Arrow-3 air and missile defence system manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries, Israel’s defence ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

An attempt by Israeli authorities to write a routine parking ticket in an ultra-Orthodox neighborhood in Jerusalem turned violent on Thursday as members of the community quickly gathered to protest, attacking and injuring 13 police officers, authorities said. – Associated Press

Israel carried out a series of airstrikes on southern and northeastern Lebanon on Thursday as a deadline looms to disarm the militant Hezbollah group along the countries’ tense frontier. – Associated Press

US President Donald Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would “probably” meet with him in Florida as roadblocks remain in moving to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire. – Bloomberg

White House envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Friday in Miami with senior officials from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to discuss the next phase of the agreement for ending the war in Gaza, according to a White House official and two additional sources with direct knowledge. – Axios

Senior officials from Israel, Greece, and Cyprus are discussing the possibility of establishing a rapid-response force composed of units from the armed forces of the three countries, three people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank harmed Hamas’s ability to pay the full salaries of its civilian and terrorist operations, a report by Arabic-speaking newspapers Aawsat explained. – Jerusalem Post

The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Israel Police on Thursday announced that for the first time, they have placed an Israeli citizen from the Bedouin village of Bir Hadaj in the South in administrative detention for an offense traditionally viewed as typical criminal organizational activity, not a national security issue. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Third, the US should use its leverage honestly. If defense guarantees, advanced aircraft, and nuclear cooperation are on the table, then so is a demand for the basic dignity and safety of Jews in Israel and the Diaspora. Normalization can still occur and remain historical. But if the price is to normalize the idea that Jews may be cursed from the world’s most revered pulpit, while diplomats applaud “progress,” then the deal is not peace; it is a mirage, and it will not protect anyone. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Singh writes: It will mean remaining focused on the multiple threats posed by an Iranian regime that is down but not out. And perhaps most importantly, it must mean leading Arab states taking leadership and responsibility for the messy problems of their own neighborhood. President Trump has suggested that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is no ticket to heaven, and he is right to demur. Grand diplomatic plans and conferences fade into the historical background; the grittier and more earthbound work of turning military success into lasting strategic advantage continues. – Providence

Iran

An Iranian-linked hacker group leaked sensitive personal data belonging to a former Israeli prime minister this week, one of a number of attacks linked to Tehran that have raised concerns about Israel’s cyber defenses. – Wall Street Journal

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran’s first year in office has been described as an annus horribilis. There were the assassinations of allies and top commanders, the airstrikes by Israel and the United States, and the destruction of nuclear facilities, not to mention the foundering economy that worsens by the day and the rolling energy and water shortages. – New York Times

The United States imposed sanctions on Thursday on 29 vessels and their management firms as Washington targeted Tehran’s “shadow fleet”, which it says exports Iranian petroleum and petroleum products. – Reuters

Iran’s currency depreciated to record lows against the dollar this week as multiple challenges including oil sanctions, regional tensions and spiraling inflation plague the economy. – Bloomberg

Peter Frankopan writes: To avoid the fate of Lagash and Angkor, Tehran and other modern cities must do something radical by contemporary political standards: accept that living within ecological boundaries is not optional. That means setting hard limits on urban expansion, aligning population and consumption with available resources and treating water not as an endlessly flexible input but as a defining constraint. […] Our ingenuity allows us to bend the rules — but not forever. In the long run, the bank always wins. – New York Times

Russia and Ukraine

European leaders committed to lend Ukraine 90 billion euros, or around $105 billion, to help the country keep fighting Moscow’s invasion but failed to agree on a plan to use frozen Russian assets for the loan. – Wall Street Journal

On the second day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one of President Vladimir V. Putin’s closest aides refused to follow his orders. Mr. Putin had told the aide, Dmitri N. Kozak, to demand Ukraine’s surrender, according to three people close to Mr. Kozak. – New York Times

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is scheduled on Friday to hold his annual news conference, an event that is expected to highlight the Kremlin’s determination to continue the war in Ukraine until all of its conditions are met. – New York Times

Russian strikes near Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa on Thursday killed a woman in her car, while a city district came under attack and suffered power and other utility cuts, officials said. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said he believes talks toward ending the war in Ukraine are “getting close to something” ahead of a U.S. meeting with Russian officials this weekend. During an Oval Office event, Trump told reporters, “I hope Ukraine moves quickly.” – Reuters

The Ukraine-U.S. reconstruction fund, established as part of the minerals deal the two countries signed in April, on Thursday approved its asset policies and is poised to begin reviewing its first investment opportunities in 2026, the U.S. governmental body overseeing the fund said. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he saw no need to change Ukraine’s constitution, which enshrines its aim to become a NATO member state, days after offering to drop that ambition in exchange for hard security guarantees. – Reuters

Russia has this year formed a military brigade equipped with its new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile, TASS news agency quoted the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, as telling a briefing for foreign military attaches on Thursday. – Reuters

A Belarusian man accused by Russia’s FSB security service of blowing up two trains in Siberia on the orders of Ukraine’s intelligence services was jailed for 22 years on Thursday by a military court. – Reuters

Russia’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that an International Claims Commission for Ukraine launched by some European powers had no legal force for Russia and was driven by an attempt by European countries to spread propaganda against Russia. – Reuters

Around 180,000 consumers were left without electricity supplies across five Ukrainian regions after a Russian attack overnight, Ukraine’s acting energy minister Artem Nekrasov said on Thursday. – Reuters

Volodymyr Zelenskiy will meet Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki in Warsaw on Friday, as the Ukrainian leader tries to shore up relations with a key ally at a crucial moment for Kyiv’s war effort. – Reuters

A Kremlin envoy will travel to Florida to discuss a U.S.-proposed plan to end the war in Ukraine, a U.S. official said Thursday, part of the back-and-forth diplomacy as the Trump administration pushes for a potential deal. – Associated Press

Turkey has warned Russia and Ukraine to exercise greater caution regarding Black Sea security after its air force shot down a drone that entered Turkish airspace, the defense ministry said Thursday. – Associated Press

Meelis Oidsalu writes: Legal uncertainty, escalation risk, and economic constraints continue to reinforce a situation in which the Baltic remains open to shadow-fleet logistics, sustaining a critical revenue stream for Russia’s war effort. So far, it seems that Russia has succeeded in deterring the Baltic Sea nations from even seriously deliberating the possibility of closing the Baltic Sea for the shadow fleet vessels. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Alexander Kolyandr writes: The issue of a reparations loan, despite all the risks of friction both between EU members and with the United States, seems like the least-worst scenario for Ukraine and its allies. It’s possible that the loan would cover only part of the required amount, with the remainder provided bilaterally by larger European countries. A full compromise would also take into account American demands and open the door to Washington obtaining some of what it wants. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

The United Nations General Assembly selected Barham Salih, a former president of Iraq and veteran Kurdish politician, as the leader of its refugee agency on Thursday. – New York Times

Syrian, Kurdish and U.S. officials are scrambling ahead of a year-end deadline to show some progress in a stalled deal to merge Kurdish forces with the Syrian state, according to several people involved in or familiar with the talks. – Reuters

French, Saudi Arabian and American officials held talks with the head of the Lebanese army on Thursday in Paris aimed at finalising a roadmap to enable a mechanism for the disarmament of the Hezbollah group, diplomats said. – Reuters

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Thursday that Turkey did not want to resort to military action again against Syria’s Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but warned that the patience of the actors involved was running out over what he described as delays in implementing an integration deal. – Reuters

The move by the United States to lift sweeping sanctions on Syria could encourage more refugees to return to their country and also help encourage investments, the head of the U.N. refugee agency in Lebanon said Thursday. – Associated Press

Egyptian authorities confirmed on Thursday a major deal to import natural gas from Israel, but immediately sought to protect themselves from Arab criticism, saying the agreement had nothing to do with politics and served a strategic interest for the country. – Agence France-Presse

Sarit Zehavi writes: Will Hezbollah rebuild its military capabilities despite the IDF’s efforts to prevent it? And how can we prevent Syria from transforming into a jihadist state when, both in the streets and within the Syrian military, the jihadist narrative and hatred of Israel have already taken deep root, encouraged by the new regime? This is a wake-up call for the international community. Terrorism must not be allowed to flourish; there is no reason to lift sanctions on HTS nor to extend leniency to the Lebanese government or to Sharaa in Syria. – Jerusalem Post

April Longley Alley writes: Restoring calm to Yemen will not be easy, and the effort will need to include security guarantees for the Red Sea and for Gulf neighbors as well as address the STC’s demands for southern independence. It will ultimately require bringing the Houthis into a political process and refocusing their attention domestically by giving them a stake in a better future. A deal may well stall in the face of many competing interests. But doing nothing will be far worse, all but ensuring that Yemen’s problems continue to spill out into one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes and the greater Middle East. Washington does not need to lead in Yemen, but the stakes are too high not to show up. – Foreign Affairs

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s central bank announced on Friday temporary measures aimed at boosting dollar supply in the onshore foreign exchange market, in the latest policy efforts to contain sharp losses in the won currency. – Reuters

North Korean hackers stole a record $2 billion of crypto this year, researchers said, a sharp jump from 2024 that underscores the country’s growing ability to pull off massive heists. – Bloomberg

South Korea’s Defense Ministry said it aims to conclude negotiations with the US within the next two years on securing an arrangement for the supply of nuclear fuel needed to power the nation’s planned nuclear-powered submarine. – Bloomberg

Ayumi Teraoka writes: The Japanese prime minister, who had expressed fondness for South Korean cosmetics, seaweed, and television dramas days earlier, bowed to the South Korean flag—a move considered respectful that was widely covered in the South Korean press. After the summit, the South Korean president, for his part, told a domestic audience that he was “no longer worried” about having Takaichi as his counterpart, a statement embraced by Japanese media. Lee is reportedly considering traveling to Tokyo to visit Takaichi in January 2026. By deepening cooperation across ideological lines and managing expectations, Tokyo and Seoul have a rare opportunity to construct an alignment resilient enough to withstand the political winds of the future. – Foreign Affairs

China

When the world’s tallest bridge opened in China’s Guizhou Province in September, a state-run political talk show filmed an episode from its summit to showcase what it called “the remarkable story of China’s path to modernization.” – New York Times

China said on Thursday its arms trade with Thailand and Cambodia is unrelated to the current conflict between the Southeast Asian neighbours, with which Beijing has close ties. – Reuters

A growing number of Chinese companies are looking to domicile in Singapore, betting a move to the trade-focused city-state would reduce risks their operations get disrupted by Sino-U.S. geopolitical tensions. – Reuters

The European Union must rethink its climate aims or risk losing out to China and the United States, new Czech Industry Minister Karel Havlicek said as he called on allies to halt the bloc’s next-generation emissions trading scheme. – Reuters

Kuwait will sign a contract next week with China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) to complete the Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port project, Public Works Minister Noura Al-Mashaan said on Thursday. – Reuters

Hong Kongers offered flowers and bowed outside a funeral parlor on Friday to pay tribute to a firefighter who was among the 160 people killed by the city’s deadliest fire in decades. – Associated Press

China’s top diplomat expressed support for Venezuela on Wednesday, criticizing one-sided coercion hours after President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of oil tankers to ratchet up pressure on the South American nation. – Bloomberg

Seth G. Jones writes: There are disagreements between the two countries, as there are with all friends. Chinese leaders have expressed concern about Russia’s warming military relations with North Korea, which will likely lead to a strengthening of Pyongyang’s missile capabilities. Beijing has been reluctant to help Pyongyang with its nuclear program, while Russia is actively supporting the program. But the trajectory is clear. China and Moscow are growing closer politically, militarily and economically. Their aim is to unseat the U.S. Instead of outlining a plan to counter this axis of authoritarian regimes, the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy glossed over the seriousness of the threat. Administration officials need to understand that appeasing dictators will only embolden them. – Wall Street Journal

South Asia

India signed an economic partnership agreement with Oman on Thursday to boost bilateral trade and investment as it seeks to expand Middle East ties and diversify trade to beat steep U.S. tariffs. – Reuters

India’s parliament approved on Thursday a landmark atomic energy bill that allows private and foreign companies to enter the nuclear power sector, as the energy-hungry country targets a tenfold jump in nuclear power capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2047. – Reuters

India has imposed anti-dumping duty on cold rolled steel imports from China for five years to protect the domestic industry, it said late on Thursday. The duty on a variety of cold-rolled steel imported from China ranges from $223.8 per ton to $414.9 per ton, the order said. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s interim government urged people on Friday to resist violence as police and paramilitary troops fanned out across Dhaka and other cities following protests overnight over the killing of a popular youth leader, sparking concerns of fresh unrest ahead of national elections in which he was due to run. – Reuters

Aparna Pande and Vinay Kaura write: If India seeks to become an Asian and global power in the next two decades, it needs a new “Look East” and “Act East” policy whereby it seeks to build upon partnerships with Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Asia. At a time when the major power that was sympathetic to India is scaling down its strategic commitment, it would behoove India to be truly autonomous in its strategy. – National Interest

Asia

In the immediate aftermath of the deadly attack on a Jewish community at Sydney’s Bondi Beach, images of a man tackling one of the shooters—potentially preventing even more deaths—transfixed the world. – Wall Street Journal

The Australian government will launch a gun buyback program to take hundreds of thousands of firearms off the streets, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday, following a shooting rampage at a Jewish holiday festival that killed 15 people. – New York Times

A special unit of Australia’s counterterrorism police detained seven men in Sydney on Thursday on suspicion of planning a “violent act,” saying that they may have been on their way to Bondi Beach, where a mass shooting left 15 people dead at a beachside Hanukkah celebration on Sunday. – New York Times

Islamic State said on Thursday the killing of 15 people at a Jewish event at Sydney’s Bondi Beach was a “source of pride’, in an article published on the group’s telegram channel. The group did not explicitly claim responsibility for Sunday’s attack. – Reuters

Taiwan is in a political deadlock over the government refusing to enact amendments to a local government spending law passed by the opposition-controlled parliament, saying the plan is fiscally unsound and has been done without proper consultation. – Reuters

Japan reaffirmed its decades-old pledge never to possess nuclear weapons on Friday after local media reported that a senior security official suggested the country should acquire them to deter potential aggressors. – Reuters

Donald Trump’s decision to impose a partial blockade on Venezuela marks a dramatic escalation in U.S. pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but it also risks undermining a top U.S. policy goal: deterring a potential Chinese naval encirclement of Taiwan. – Reuters

Thailand on Thursday helped launch a global effort to fight the spread of online scams that include criminal enterprises based largely in Southeast Asia estimated to bilk billions of dollars annually from victims around the world. – Associated Press

A senior government official who advises Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on security expressed a personal opinion that Japan should have nuclear weapons, according to local media reports. – Bloomberg

Japan will host leaders from five Central Asian nations, convening the first summit at the highest level as the resource-rich region draws growing interest from global powers. – Bloomberg

John Lee writes: When the term gained in popularity in the 1990s, it was a rejection of homogeneity or integration as the organizing principle for society. But multiculturalism at that time still meant equal responsibilities and rights for all identities that made up Australian society. That recipe for tolerance is giving way to a ranking of social identities and causes based on notions of separating groups into victims and oppressors. The causes linked to perceived victims, such as the Palestinians, means their advocates enjoy maximum rights and minimal responsibilities. If it continues, multiculturalism in Australia will become a failed experiment. – The Hill

Europe

A joint venture including Rheinmetall secured a contract valued at roughly 1.7 billion euros ($2 billion) to supply the German armed forces with space-based reconnaissance data, the latest high-profile order for the defense group as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. – Wall Street Journal

Britain’s last military force dedicated to defending the homeland was disbanded in 1992, after NATO leaders hailed a “promising era” of peace in Europe at the end of the Cold War and the government began scaling back military spending. More than three decades later, Britain is again preparing for potential attacks on its soil. – New York Times

Families, lawyers and supporters of the detained pro-Palestinian activists who are on hunger strike in Britain issued an urgent plea to the government on Thursday, warning that their loved ones face life-threatening danger. – Reuters

Thousands of Bulgarians protested on Thursday evening against the outgoing government, calling for fair elections and judicial reform to tackle what they describe as endemic corruption in the European Union’s poorest member state. – Reuters

Belgian police fired tear gas and water cannon on Thursday as a demonstration by farmers against an EU-Mercosur free trade agreement turned violent, with some protesters hurling rocks and potatoes at police and smashing windows. – Reuters

Belarus is nearing a major deal to restore relations with the United States but will not give up its close ties to Russia, President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday. – Reuters

The EU’s top court ruled on Thursday that Denmark’s 2018 “ghetto law,” which relocates residents from minority-heavy areas, could amount to ethnic discrimination, dealing a blow to the country’s integration policy. – Reuters

EU executive chief Ursula von der Leyen told European Union leaders on Thursday that the signing of the contentious EU-Mercosur trade deal had been delayed to January, EU sources told Reuters, casting some doubt on the future of the EU’s trade expansion plans. – Reuters

For European markets overshadowed by the United States since the summer, investors are hoping a spending bonanza in Germany – the European Union’s biggest economy – moves the dial in 2026. But first, they need to see evidence it will deliver. – Reuters

Belarus’ authoritarian president said Thursday that Russia had deployed its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to the country, a move that comes as talks to end the war in Ukraine have entered a crucial phase. – Associated Press

The UK sanctioned oil trading tycoon Murtaza Lakhani, part of a new package targeting Russia over its war against Ukraine. – Bloomberg

French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe will have to find a way to directly engage with the Russian leader as the US pushes ahead with peace talks. – Bloomberg

French lawmakers will begin Friday what appears to be their final shot to green-light fiscal plans for 2026 before the end of the year. – Politico

The European Defence Fund plans to allocate €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in funding for defense research and development in 2026, with the biggest chunk of money budgeted for work on air and missile defense, including countering hypersonic glide vehicles. – Defense News

Denmark has signed a contract to buy coastal-defense missile systems from Norway’s Kongsberg for more than €100 million (US$117 million), as the country seeks better control of its strategic coastal waters. – Defense News

Africa

The arrest and planned deportation of seven Kenyan nationals working at an American refugee-processing center in Johannesburg triggered a diplomatic row this week amid wider tensions over Washington’s policy to offer asylum to white South Africans. – Wall Street Journal

The president of Guinea-Bissau spent years building a political network that stretched from West Africa to Paris and beyond. This year alone, he was hosted at the White House and the Kremlin. – Washington Post

Paramilitaries in Sudan killed over 1,000 people, one-third of them in summary executions, in an attack in April against a famine-stricken camp for displaced people, the United Nations human rights body said on Thursday. – New York Times

Ghana’s parliament on Thursday approved amendments to the Bank of Ghana Act, imposing stricter limits on central bank financing of the government to safeguard its independence. – Reuters

Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema on Thursday signed into law constitutional changes that will expand the country’s parliament, in a move that critics say could favour his party, eight months before a national election. – Reuters

The Americas

Honduras’ National Electoral Council on Thursday began a long-delayed manual count of about 15% of the votes cast in last month’s presidential election, a laborious task that could end up overturning the conservative candidate’s lead. – Reuters

Argentina’s main union federation led a massive demonstration on Thursday against a government labor reform bill that seeks, among other measures, to put limits on the right to strike and modify employee working hours and severance pay. – Reuters

Venezuela on Thursday authorized two very large crude carriers (VLCC) to set sail for China, according to two sources familiar with Venezuela’s oil export operations, which would be only the second and third supertankers to depart the country since the U.S. seized a ship carrying Venezuelan oil last week. – Reuters

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday said he will veto a bill passed by the country’s Congress to cut former President Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup and also told journalists he wanted to reduce tensions between the United States and Venezuela. – Reuters

Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino said on Thursday that the first direct flight under its “voluntary return” program will leave Panama for Venezuela on Monday. – Reuters

Brazil’s lower house speaker Hugo Motta decided on Thursday to remove two lawmakers close to former President Jair Bolsonaro from their seats in the latest blow to the far-right leader serving a 27-year jail sentence for leading a coup attempt. – Associated Press

Brazil’s Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, said he will step down in February to help in President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s reelection campaign. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The best-case scenario remains Maduro retreating to some faraway country, followed by Machado somehow taking charge in Caracas. How that last part happens remains unclear. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko extended an invitation on Monday for Maduro to take refuge in Minsk. Some call it the Paris of the Steppe. Winters aren’t ideal, but it’s beautiful in the summer, and the 63-year-old can comfortably live out the rest of his days without worrying a Hellfire missile is heading his way. – Washington Post

John Polga-Hecimovich writes: However, the Venezuelan government has built a dense internal-control system and an expansive militia network, and it boasts an urban geography that amplifies asymmetric resistance. The Venezuelan military’s operational doctrine reflects this reality: survive the first blows, then disperse, adapt, and bleed an invader politically through guerrilla warfare. Even limited strikes risk setting in motion consequences that U.S. forces could manage tactically, but that U.S. political leaders might find difficult to rein in once the conflict expands beyond the initial use of force. – War on the Rocks

North America

Canada and the U.S. will launch formal discussions to review their free trade agreement in mid-January, the office of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said. – Associated Press

As the Trump administration turns its attention away from Europe, Britain and Canada will double down on their relationship in 2026 with an “ambitious” new strategic partnership, Ralph Goodale, Canada’s High Commissioner to London, has told POLITICO. – Politico

Mihir Sharma writes: Countries across Asia and beyond now know that it isn’t just their relationship with the US that is threatened, but with multiple other nations as Trump tries to push everyone into his dream, high-tariff world. He has already asked the European Union, for example, to impose 100% tariffs on China and India. […] Sheinbaum may have picked the wrong side. In his first term, Trump promised to have Mexico pay for his wall. In his second term, he has succeeded. So what if the wall is one of tariffs, and not bricks? – Bloomberg

Mohamed Fahmy writes: As a Muslim who studied in university in Montreal and Vancouver, I grew up to enjoy the utopia that is Canada and embraced the civility and the true meaning of respecting diversity, religious inclusion and democracy. Yet I am concerned that the Muslim Brotherhood and its political agenda has flourished in Canada, and now has its tentacles in some Canadian universities, mosques, political circles and civil society groups. My question remains: why is Canada not taking tangible steps towards designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization when leading Muslim countries in the Middle East and have done so? – National Post

United States

President Donald Trump’s homeland security adviser, Stephen Miller, and other senior officials were looking for a fight. In the first months of the administration, Miller, the architect of Trump’s anti-immigration and border policies, and his team discussed starting a new war on drugs by striking cartels and alleged traffickers in Mexico, according to one current and two former U.S. officials. – Washington Post

President Donald Trump’s administration on Thursday imposed sanctions on two more judges from the International Criminal Court over their involvement in the court’s case against Israel, ratcheting up Washington’s pressure campaign against the war tribunal. – Reuters

In the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion earlier this year that the U.S. would resume nuclear testing, a U.S. government representative defended the stance at a global nuclear arms control meeting and pointed to nuclear provocations from Russia, China and North Korea. – Associated Press

The Trump administration halted the US green card lottery program, which it said was used by the suspect in the Brown University shooting and killing of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor. – Bloomberg

Editorial: A previous round of U.S. sanctions in August on two ICC judges and two prosecutors didn’t substantially trouble the court, which expects to wait out Mr. Trump as it did in his first term. It can strike afterward, as it did Israel during the Biden Administration, which revoked sanctions on the ICC in 2021. Designating a few staff members every few months won’t deter ICC abuse; it signals to the court that it can escape real consequences. The way to change this is to sanction the institution as a whole. This will threaten its ability to operate—until it changes course to respect its original legal limits. – Wall Street Journal

Saxby Chambliss and Kent Conrad write: Some argue that America should slow down. They want more studies and more reviews. But China is not slowing down; it is moving with purpose. We must do the same. America has risen to the moment before. We built the Arsenal of Democracy, won the space race, and invented the digital world that powers the global economy. The AI revolution is another such moment. We can win it, but only if we act with the urgency of a modern-day moonshot. – National Interest

Cybersecurity

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has launched a review that could result in the first shipments to China of Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI chips, five sources said, making good on his pledge to allow the controversial sales. – Reuters

Mexico’s antitrust commission said on Thursday it had resolved a case over a lack of competition in the mobile operating system market stemming from business practices related to Android. – Reuters

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton is raising the spectre of foreign adversaries playing too heavy a role in open-source software, and asking the national cyber director to counter the risks. – CyberScoop

The U.S. Sentencing Commission is issuing preliminary sentencing guidelines for criminal offenses under the Take It Down Act, a law passed earlier this year to curb the spread of nonconsensual deepfake pornography. – CybserScoop

Policymakers and companies are reckoning with increased reports over the past few months showing AI tools being leveraged to conduct cyber attacks on a larger and faster scale. – CyberScoop

A previously unknown, China-aligned hacker group has been targeting government institutions across Southeast Asia and Japan, according to new research. – The Record

DXS International, a British technology company whose software is widely used throughout the National Health Service (NHS), has disclosed a cybersecurity incident affecting its internal systems. – The Record

Defense

After three days of strategy meetings last month with his top national security advisers, President Trump hinted that he had “sort of” made up his mind on a coming military step to take against Venezuela. “I can’t tell you what it would be,” he told reporters. – Wall Street Journal

Top Republican lawmakers have signaled they are ending their inquiries into a controversial U.S. military strike on an alleged drug smuggling vessel in the waters off Venezuela. – Washington Post

The U.S. military said on Thursday it carried out kinetic strikes on two vessels suspected of smuggling drugs in the Eastern Pacific. – Reuters

The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued a notification to pilots to exercise extreme caution due to a “worsening security situation and heightened military activity” around Venezuela, as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Nicolas Maduro. – Bloomberg

Benjamin Jensen and Mackenzie Eaglen write: The new National Security Strategy elevates sea power in quiet ways. It calls for control of sea lanes in the Western Hemisphere, denial of aggression across the First Island Chain, protection of global choke points from Hormuz to the Red Sea and Panama, and modernization of undersea, nuclear, and missile defense capabilities. The Navy and Marine Corps now must turn those broad directions into real ships, formations, and concepts that can operate at home and abroad. – Center for Strategic and International Studies