Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

An Israeli airstrike killed two Palestinians, including a three-year-old ​child, in the central Gaza Strip on ‌Sunday, health officials said. Gaza medics said the Israeli airstrike near a bakery in Deir Al-Balah killed one ​man, Hussam Nusair, a three-year-old boy, Tayyem ​Hamdan, and wounded several others. – Reuters

An Israeli strike killed a Hamas operative and two of his accomplices in the West Bank on Friday, the military said, in a ​rare use of deadly air power in the occupied territory. – Reuters

An Israeli strike within the compound of a Gaza Strip hospital Saturday killed a Hamas commander who was planning attacks on IDF troops and civilians, the military said, while the coastal territory’s health officials reported Israeli strikes elsewhere killed three people. – Agence-France Presse

The Israel Defense Forces announced Sunday that a series of attacks over the weekend killed several of the terror group’s fighters, including one in a strike in central Gaza. – Times of Israel

Greece is set to sign a $3.6 billion defense deal with Israel on Monday in Tel Aviv, a major agreement that will provide Athens with a multilayered air defense system against potential threats from Turkey and Iran. – Jerusalem Post

Fatah’s Democratic Reform (FDR) faction is seeking to unify Hamas, Fatah, and all Palestinian factions, hoping that doing so will allow the groups to focus on building a Palestinian state rather than becoming consumed by internal conflict. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission with intensifying airstrikes on shopping malls, power stations, ports and other infrastructure. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—its European neighbors—for economic resilience and for military logistics. – Wall Street Journal

Russia has turned up the heat on Kyiv’s allies in Europe, with a string of so-called gray zone activities aimed at sowing fear, as it struggles to advance on the ground in Ukraine and faces increasingly damaging Ukrainian drone and missile attacks at home. – Wall Street Journal

A Russian drone attack on an ammunition depot in the Kyiv region caused an explosion on Friday evening that killed at least 37 people and injured dozens more, Ukrainian officials said, in the second such incident in two months. – Wall Street Journal

In his fifth year of war, difficulties are mounting for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. His troops have slowed on the battlefield. His spending on the war has ballooned beyond expectations. His population is increasingly fearful of what’s next. – New York Times

Russia sees NATO activity in the Arctic as a direct security threat, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in ​an article published on Monday, as the alliance members boost ‌their presence in the region in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. – Reuters

Ukraine’s new defence minister said he would outline a “clear vision” for Kyiv’s partners of how his country plans to fight Russia, as the government tries to bring forward ​part of a European Union loan to help cover a $27 billion military budget deficit. – Reuters

A missile attack killed two people ​and injured 16 in the city of Belgorod ‌close to the Russian border with Ukraine, acting governor Alexander Shuvayev said on the Telegram messaging app. – Reuters

Ukraine’s top presidential adviser said on Friday that technical talks on Russia’s war would likely take place in the ​near future but added that he did not expect ‌any swift agreement. – Reuters

Russia appealed to the United Nations over the weekend to secure the release of a Russian-Israeli historian who Moscow says has been in Shin Bet custody since disappearing upon his arrival in Israel earlier this month. – Times of Israel

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan writes: For the Kremlin today, the risk of elite paralysis is real: it now extends beyond the research and expert community to top officials and leaders of the industries in Moscow and the regions. By eroding the feedback loop that every stable government—even the most authoritarian—needs to stay in power, the Putin regime is becoming less capable of understanding the real condition of Russia. And that could, in the long run, make Putin far more vulnerable to a true political crisis. – Foreign Affairs

Clara Kaluderovic writes: The new defense minister wants to win—and he has his own vision for how to do it. Part of that vision is America: he speaks of the relationship the way soldiers speak of one another—as a brotherhood, made stronger by what each brings to it. Fedorov has taken his case to the public and, if he gets his way, to the ballot. That is his right, and the debate he has opened about wartime democracy is a real one. But while Ukraine debates, the two men who took over its military leadership this summer will run the war—and on the evidence so far, the country’s friends have reason to expect a great deal from both of them. – National Interest

Turkey

Both Turkey and Israel are allies of the United States and have warm relations with the Trump administration. But the countries, boasting strong militaries that are increasingly active outside their borders, are pursuing strategic visions that put them at odds in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean. – New York Times

Top officials from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will gather in Istanbul on Monday for a first committee meeting under ​the joint defence accord that they signed this month, a ‌Turkish foreign ministry source said. – Reuters

Turkish and Somali forces have freed the MV LUTUF, a Turkish vessel hijacked by pirates off the coast of the East African country, Somalia’s defense ministry said Saturday. – Associated Press

Middle East & North Africa

The central bank of the United Arab Emirates announced on Saturday that it would conduct a “special and urgent examination” of an Egyptian bank operating in the country, the latest fallout from the Treasury Department’s renewed push to isolate Iran. – New York Times

Representatives of Libya’s rival political parties on Sunday signed an agreement on ​holding long-delayed national elections within two years to resolve contentious issues over ‌electoral laws and reform the national elections body. – Reuters

The Hezbollah terror group has so far rejected overtures by the Lebanese government to pull its forces out of the contested Ali Taher Ridge in south Lebanon, according to a Saturday report. – Times of Israel

China

China responded on Saturday to concerns raised in Nepal in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s flood about whether Beijing could have given some advance warning of a disaster that has left some 682 people dead, and more than 3,000 missing. – Wall Street Journal

Beijing widened its purge of top military leaders this week, dismissing more generals in the latest stage of a shake-up that has removed scores of senior military leaders since 2022, calling into question combat readiness as President Xi Jinping seeks to project power across the Indo-Pacific. – Washington Post

Three former organizers of Hong Kong’s annual vigils in remembrance of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown returned to court Friday to argue over their sentences after being convicted of inciting subversion under a national security law imposed by China. – Associated Press

Mark Whittington writes: The lunar base is the main prize, especially because of NASA’s plan to create a virtual lunar city of hundreds of square miles in area. Given the security provisions of the Artemis Accords, NASA and its international and commercial partners would be able to deny access to a great deal of lunar resources and real estate to the Chinese. Of course, the Chinese might try to do the same thing and deny access to its base and environs to everyone else. But China is not a party to the Artemis Accords, so their justification under international law might be tenuous at best. It is a messy way to handle a return to the moon, but the only way available, considering current geopolitical realities. – The Hill

Asia

Pacific leaders started to gather in Palau on Monday for the annual Pacific Islands ‌Forum, but the absence of several heads of government has cast a shadow over a meeting intended to demonstrate regional unity. – Reuters

Australia’s far-right One Nation party won a seat in a state parliament long held by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s centre-left Labor Party, continuing a ​surge that had gained the populist group its first seat in ‌the national lower house. – Reuters

The U.S.-Taiwan relationship has “never been stronger” and Taiwan is helping to re-industrialise the United States with its tech investments, the top ​American diplomat in Taipei said on Monday. – Reuters

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Monday appointed ​Erlan Karin, a longtime adviser, as vice president, an ‌office created under a new constitution that Central Asia’s largest economy adopted earlier this year. – Reuters

The leaders of China, Russia and India are among the heads of state gathering in Kyrgyzstan this week for the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a group billed as a counterweight to U.S. global influence. – Associated Press

Cambodia, notorious for being a major center for international online scams, claimed Friday it no longer hosts any of the compounds where the lucrative cybercrime was carried out, although some remain skeptical. – Associated Press

Japan’s Industry Ministry is seeking an unprecedented ¥7.8 trillion ($49 billion) to accelerate investment in semiconductors, AI and other strategic industries at the heart of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s growth agenda. – Bloomberg

Africa

Explosions at the capital’s airport, gunfire near the presidential palace and other clashes threw the West African country of Niger into confusion on Saturday, as renegade soldiers assaulted key sites and the authorities fought to keep control. – New York Times

The planeload of deportees, which arrived in Liberia this month, carried the first of 1,200 people expected to be sent to the West African country by the United States over the next year. – New York Times

Niger’s army regained control of a key ​military airbase on Sunday after it was attacked by mutinous soldiers a day earlier, the latest challenge to military ‌ruler Abdourahamane Tiani as his government struggles to contain a jihadist insurgency. – Reuters

Zambian opposition leader ​Brian Mundubile was ‌charged with treason on Saturday, his ​lawyer told ​Reuters. “Mr Brian Mundubile and ⁠his running ​mate, Mr Makebi ​Zulu, were both charged with treason and remained ​detained at ​Lusaka Central Police Station ‌as ⁠of last night,” lawyer Kambwa Aongola said. – Reuters

Police fired tear gas to disperse small-scale traders protesting against an import duty hike, ​a Reuters witness saw on Friday, while hundreds ‌of businesses closed in central Nairobi. – Reuters

French aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres said on Friday it had opened a new Ebola treatment ​centre in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. – Reuters

At least 49 people were killed and 33 wounded in South Sudan after armed ​cattle raiders from Unity State in the country’s ‌north attacked a community of herders in neighbouring Warrap State at dawn on Thursday, officials said. – Reuters

Guinea-Bissau was voting Sunday in a referendum to decide on granting new presidential powers ahead of December’s general election, which will return the West African nation to democracy after its latest coup. – Associated Press

Drone strikes have killed eight civilians and wounded dozens in Sudan’s Kordofan region, a rights group said Friday. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: If there’s a loser in this story — besides some of the wildlife in the game reserve, and downstream fishing communities — it is Western finance. Investors, including those channeling money through multilateral agencies and the World Bank, have turned away from big projects in the emerging world, and from hydropower in particular. Now that countries are discovering they can do it for themselves, they no longer need the West and its activists, nor China and its diplomats. – Bloomberg

North America

The Canadian economy as a whole is projected to withstand the new tariffs of 50% on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, or about 5% of Canada’s U.S.-bound exports. But many small and medium-size Canadian business owners are expected to bear the brunt of the pain, and some fear they could be put out of business without a resolution to the trade spat. – Wall Street Journal

President Claudia Sheinbaum has spent almost two years trying to keep President Trump happy without alienating her mentor, the nationalist former Mexican leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador. A recent crisis has now forced Sheinbaum to chart a more independent course between Trump and López Obrador, risking a collision with one or both of them. – Wall Street Journal

After days of trading insults with President Donald Trump, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said it was crucial for the American and Canadian economies that the countries strike a trade deal. – Washington Post

Google has updated its Maps application, labeling Lake Ontario as Lake America for users in the United States, following an executive order signed by President Trump last week amid an escalating trade war with Canada. – New York Times

When Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada addressed the nation a week ago, hours after walking away from trade talks with the United States, he invited 41 million Canadians into the negotiating room. – New York Times

Nearly 200,000 people were forcibly returned to Haiti in the first eight ‌months of this year, a U.N. official told an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Friday, days after a brutal gang attack killed nearly 50 people near the capital. – Reuters

Canada’s public broadcaster said Friday it is making an exception to its policy of not labeling specific attacks as terrorism for the 9/11 attacks after coming under fire over a memo restating it. – Associated Press

Editorial: President Donald Trump and U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz deserve credit, along with co-sponsor Panama, for pushing the gang suppression force through the Security Council. Last fall, Waltz said that, after years of failing the island, “the international community is sharing the burden, and living up to its promise to help Haiti turn the tide.” Alas, the tide has not turned, and Haiti is drowning. The U.N. force lacks the money and people needed to succeed. With guarantees of U.S. funding and equipment, more countries might be persuaded to contribute to a security force. With sustained, high-level attention, Haiti could be pulled back from the abyss. That would make sending home the 350,000 TPS recipients morally defensible. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

A ransomware group ​said on Friday it was putting up for auction a trove of ‌data it stole from Berlin state agencies, and city officials refused to pay.  – Reuters

The United States just made Meta change how it treats kids. The pressure’s now on for Europe to prove its tougher tech laws can do the same — or go even further. – Politico

Elon Musk’s xAI has adopted an unusual and aggressive strategy to fend off lawsuits over child sexual abuse material allegedly created by its AI chatbot, Grok. – Politico

Editorial: Spooked by Anthropic, the Pentagon accelerated efforts to bring competing models onto its classified networks. By May, the military reached agreements with eight other technology companies, reducing dependence on any single entity. When Anthropic subsequently developed Mythos, an advanced model with extraordinary cybersecurity capabilities, the government found reason to work with the company again, even as the Pentagon continued to call Anthropic a supply-chain risk. The lesson should be obvious. The government is right to be worried about private contractors second-guessing its lawful decisions in combat. But lashing out has helped no one. – Washington Post

Robert H. Bork Jr. writes: If Meta broke children’s privacy laws, enforce them. If it deceives consumers, prosecute that. Give parents tools that actually work and hold Meta accountable for honoring the choices parents make. What’s harder to justify is turning prosecutors into product designers, and a settlement negotiated behind closed doors into national technology policy. The contradiction sitting at the center of all this isn’t subtle. Government insists Meta has grown too powerful, then hands it responsibilities that used to belong to parents while piling on regulatory costs that smaller rivals may not survive. We are, somehow, asking the company to become both less powerful and more responsible for managing American childhood at the same time. That isn’t a fix for Big Tech’s power. It might be the mechanism that makes it bigger. – Wall Street Journal