Fdd's overnight brief

August 26, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Representatives of the Netherlands will be expelled from Kiryat Gat’s International Support Center for Gaza due to the Dutch government’s adoption of anti-Israel legislation, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF and officers from Israel Police’s Jordan Border Unit thwarted an attempt to smuggle weapons across the Jordanian border last night, police announced in a Tuesday statement. – Jerusalem Post

Several Palestinian sources said anxiety has emerged within the PA leadership in Ramallah following ongoing efforts by rival Palestinian factions, most notably Hamas and Mohammed Dahlan’s camp, to form a political alliance ahead of the elections for the legislative council (the Palestinian parliament) scheduled for November 28. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas and groups affiliated with the terrorist organization must end extrajudicial executions of suspected collaborators with Israel, Amnesty International demanded on Friday, accusing the organization of unlawful killings, arbitrary arrests, and reprisals against Palestinian families. – Jerusalem Post

The Board of Peace has conveyed a message to Hamas in recent days through Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators, demanding that the terrorist organization halt the launching of kites and all other activity directed at Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli officials announced on Tuesday the start of operations to dismantle a vocational training center run by UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, in the East Jerusalem area of Kafr Aqab, near the Qalandiya refugee camp, on land Jerusalem says is controlled by the state. – Times of Israel

The Israeli humanitarian organization NATAN Worldwide Disaster Relief announced on Tuesday the opening of a new medical clinic that it will support at the Mega Academy of the Gaza Children’s Village (GCV), a humanitarian project aiming to give Palestinian children nutrition, healthcare, and trauma-informed support in addition to education via a curriculum devoid of hateful messaging. – Times of Israel

Iran

After 10 weeks of stalled efforts to build President Donald Trump’s initial agreement with Iran into a broader deal to end the war, open the Strait of Hormuz and come to a nuclear settlement, the United States this week unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast.” – Washington Post

Iran denounced ​on Tuesday expanded U.S. sanctions aimed at isolating its economy as an act of “gross lawlessness”, expressing confidence that many countries would not join the pressure campaign. – Reuters

Iran said it had restarted talks ​with neighbor Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz as it faces heightened economic pressure from U.S. ‌President Donald Trump in the wider conflict. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump ​said on Tuesday that all mines ‌had been detonated or removed from international waters of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran has been told that any ship ​or boat placing new mines will be ​destroyed. – Reuters

At least three Indian oil refiners and a global energy major plan to stop using vessels on Iran’s new ​blacklist, including for ship-to-ship transfers, due to security concerns, four sources with direct knowledge of the matter said this week. – Reuters

The US State Department’s Rewards for Justice (RFJ) program requested information on five senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders, offering a reward of up to $10 million in a Monday post on X/Twitter. – Jerusalem Post

Ludovic Hood writes: The best outcome for the region — and for core U.S. interests — is the regime’s collapse. The Islamic republic is in terminal decline: Iran’s economy is in free fall, its leadership is in disarray, and its government does not have legitimacy with the people. A patient, sustained campaign of economic and military pressure, coupled with hard-nosed diplomacy supported by our regional partners, can strike a mortal blow to a regime that grows more brittle with each passing day. – Washington Post

Yaron Schwartz writes: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer the decisive battleground Iran once hoped it would be. Oil (not Iranian) keeps flowing, prices remain contained, and the strategic initiative rests with Washington and its partners. What remains is the harder work of managing escalation risk on Gulf infrastructure while Tehran’s options continue to narrow and the pressure inside Iran keeps building. Hormuz was Iran’s best card, and it’s already been played and lost. What remains is a regime running out of money, running out of allies, and running out of time. – Jerusalem Post

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: Iran also continues to hold a “ghost inventory” of 20 percent enriched uranium, most stored in Russia and some at the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR). Tails from the production of this inventory are estimated as 9289.4 kg to 15,658 kg depleted uranium hexafluoride. Lastly, Iran also produced large amounts of 3.5 percent enriched uranium prior to the JCPOA.  This is estimated at about 16,000 kg. While the vast majority was shipped out to Russia in return for natural uranium yellowcake, the depleted tails would have remained in Iran. – Institute for Science and International Security

Russia and Ukraine

Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, his first publicly known trip to the Russian capital. – Wall Street Journal

Last month Russian military officers flew from St. Petersburg to the country’s Kaliningrad exclave nestled between two NATO countries and the Baltic Sea. There the officers oversaw readiness planning and procedures for a mobilization of the region’s residents, with details on how to house, feed and arm them, said Western intelligence officials. – Wall Street Journal

Once Ukraine’s most sought-after Western weapons, tanks now mostly sit idle, hidden in forests and collecting cobwebs. The $10 million machines, procured with great fanfare, proved no match for cheap drones that now dominate the battlefield. – New York Times

An overnight drone attack started a large ‌fire at a warehouse of Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries in Russia’s Tambov region, officials said on Wednesday, as Ukraine pushes ahead with ​its campaign to hurt the economy by targeting online retailers. – Reuters

Ukraine appears to be slowly losing the war against Russia, ousted Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters, warning that Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the tide in its favour. – Reuters

A senior Vatican official urged an end to the Ukraine war after meeting in Moscow on Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister ​Sergey Lavrov in the first in-person talks between ​Vatican and Russian officials in five years. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that remarks by Finnish President Alexander Stubb approving of Ukrainian strikes ​on Russian territory, including on e-commerce warehouses, confirmed that ‌he belonged to the “party of war.” – Reuters

The Russian Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that ​its forces had ​struck three cargo vessels ⁠carrying supplies for ​the Ukrainian military and ​a tanker at the Black Sea port of Pivdennyi. – Reuters

Ukraine sees a window of opportunity for U.S. ​mediation to end Russia’s war in Ukraine until the end of next summer and has drafted ‌one page of ideas with U.S. and European officials to be presented to Moscow, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. – Reuters

A U.S. military transport plane landed at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport ​on Tuesday, data from the flight ‌tracking service Flightradar24 showed. – Reuters

Six Chinese nationals were killed and nine more are missing after a fire broke out at a gas ​chemical complex in Russia’s far eastern Amur region, the ​plant said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree giving the government powers to temporarily take control of “critical infrastructure” across the country, if private owners fail to protect it from escalating Ukrainian attacks. – CNN

Eric Wargotz writes: Ultimately, the chaotic style of American foreign policy is entirely deliberate. It strips away illusions and forces leaders to face facts. Washington is not losing control of the chessboard — it is changing the rules of the game. However, time tells all. Only time will show whether this highly disruptive approach has true merit in this time, this place, and this matter. Weaponized unpredictability is an effective tool to force a stale game to break. But its final success depends entirely on whether it leads to a lasting, stable peace or an unmanageable explosion. The board has been thoroughly shaken. As Ukraine and Russia continue to attack one another, with NATO’s stance as ready to intervene if the conflict expands, Washington must prove it can successfully close the deal to thwart a threat of larger regional conflict. – Washington Examiner

Dmitry Gorenburg, Julian G. Waller, Gabriela I. Rosa-Hernandez, and Cornell Overfield write: On the other hand, an unprecedented number of relatively young one- and two-star general officers (and the colonels immediately below them) have gained significant combat experience in Ukraine, and the consistent rotation in operational commanders means that a far more operationally skilled (at least in principle) cadre of elites is now in prime position to move into the highest echelons of the military hierarchy over time. Analysts will need to take into account this changing experiential reality for the Russian military elite — only the U.S. military hierarchy has a comparable breadth and depth of wartime experience. – War on the Rocks

Syria

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa hailed early on Tuesday the United States’ removal of his country from the state sponsors of terror list, a major sanctions relief step. – Agence-France Presse

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces has been dissolved, the armed militant group’s leader said on Tuesday, a ​major step in the integration plan agreed on earlier ‌this year with the Islamist-led government in Damascus.Reuters

Defense Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday told troops in southern Syria that the Israeli military would not leave its buffer zone there as long as “jihadist threats” remain, issuing a belligerent message to Damascus as the US tries to secure a security deal between the countries. – Times of Israel

The Syrian government condemned Defense Minister Israel Katz’s visit to Mount Hermon on Tuesday, Syria’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said in an X/Twitter post, calling the action “illegal.” – Jerusalem Post

The United States continues to hold discussions with Israel, Turkey, and Syria amid recent regional tensions, with Washington saying that restraint and dialogue are the best way to prevent further escalation, a State Department spokesperson told Maariv. – Jerusalem Post

Sean Durns writes: The question that now looms is an old one: Can a leopard change its spots? Al Sharaa has demonstrated a degree of pragmatism and proven himself a cunning and capable leader. But the U.S. should hold no illusions about who it is dealing with. Another old saying, particularly popular among U.S. and Israeli practitioners in the Middle East, has it that “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” The saying leads to a risk-averse mentality that, if unintentionally, has helped prop up Hamas and other despots. But it’s popular for a reason: Those who rule in the region are seldom angels. – Washington Examiner

Lebanon

The state must contend with Hezbollah’s deep-rooted social welfare system and persuade its supporters that it can provide security – even as continuing Israeli occupation and attacks undermine the state’s claim that it can protect Lebanon. – The Guardian

Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Reza Sheibani had his visa extended after it expired on Monday, despite the Lebanese government declaring him persona non grata, KAN News reported on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah called on Islamic countries to take “coordinated and decisive measures” against Israel during a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Sunday, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry and Lebanese media reports. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

President Trump has submitted a landmark nuclear accord with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, but hasn’t dropped his last minute condition that the kingdom normalize relations with Israel, an administration official said. – Wall Street Journal

The State Department is preparing to send U.S. diplomats back to embassies in the Middle East that were evacuated before and during the war with Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities. – New York Times

The European Court of Human Rights on Tuesday criticized Turkey’s courts over the imprisonment of prominent philanthropist Osman Kavala, saying it highlighted a “systemic problem” that was “marked by the detention and prosecution of political opponents, human-rights defenders and journalists.” – Associated Press

Turkey, a key US ally and Iran’s third-largest trading partner, is at risk of losing a key energy supplier if Washington makes good on a threat to economically isolate Tehran. – Bloomberg

An oil tanker was struck and disabled by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, causing damage but no casualties, a British maritime agency said early Tuesday. – Agence-France Presse

China

As President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on goods from around the world, China is casting itself in a role once claimed by the United States: champion of free trade and stable market in a chaotic world. – Washington Post

Chinese President Xi Jinping will ​attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit ‌in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, as part of a state visit there and then to Egypt from August ​30 to September 3, China’s ​foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

China’s military has launched a public campaign to collect information on ​alleged procurement violations in the ‌Rocket Force as authorities step up scrutiny of military purchasing activities, according to a notice ​on its procurement portal. – Reuters

China and India agreed on Tuesday to continue dialogue and seek ​a “fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement” of their border issue ‌after talks between senior diplomats in Beijing. – Reuters

South Asia

India’s long, hot summer of youth unrest shows no sign of cooling off, with protesters undeterred by monsoon rains or police crackdowns. – New York Times

Daily life for civilians in Myanmar has reached a new low, the United Nations said on Tuesday, with a thriving “conflict economy” of unregulated rare earth mining adding to suffering caused by military violence and widespread abuses by armed groups. – New York Times

At least 14 infants were killed in a fire at a state-run hospital in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad on Wednesday, the ​prime minister said, with local media blaming the tragedy on a ​fault in the air conditioning system. – Reuters

Nepal sent helicopters to the rescue on Wednesday after a massive flash flood swept ‌away villages in the Himalayan nation, killing eight and damaging roads, bridges and power projects in areas near Tibet, authorities said. – Reuters

Bangladesh could consider joining the Mecca pact, a mutual defence agreement signed this month ​between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, a minister said, a move that could complicate its foreign relations, particularly with neighbouring India. – Reuters

Indian authorities ​have recovered an ‌emergency beacon and located a lifeboat ​associated with ​a Panama-flagged ship that ⁠sank in ​the Bay of ​Bengal last week, but no survivors were ​found, the ​coastguard said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Asia

Japan is set to unveil on Wednesday a comprehensive plan to boost resilience of its energy supply, ​with steps such as diversifying crude oil procurement and ‌supporting Middle East pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, media said. – Reuters

New installations have been sighted on an islet near Antelope Reef in the Paracels archipelago of the ‌disputed South China Sea where analysts believe China is building its largest military base, according to satellite imagery reviewed by Reuters. – Reuters

Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung will attend events related to a major summit of leaders from Pacific islands ​nations in Palau starting next week, his office said ‌on Wednesday. – Reuters

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s commercial hub, is proposing to gradually restrict gasoline- and diesel-powered ​vehicles from its downtown area from mid-2027 as part ‌of a planned low-emission zone (LEZ), state-run Thanh Nien newspaper reported, citing city authorities. – Reuters

Former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and his eldest son were detained Tuesday after law enforcement officers raided businesses linked to the family, the country’s Anti-Corruption Committee said. – Associated Press

Europe

Swiss voters will decide in a referendum next month whether to approve a more restrictive form of neutrality that would block their ​country from imposing economic sanctions or cooperating with NATO. – Reuters

The German government will soon announce ​who is responsible for an attempted drone attack ‌on Leipzig/Halle airport earlier this month, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Ukrainian man detained in Romania for setting up a stash of guns and ammunition near Berlin ​is suspected by investigators of being part of a ‌Russian-controlled agent network, Spiegel magazine reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. – Reuters

Police have thwarted a planned ​arson attack on a factory ‌producing unmanned aerial systems in eastern Slovakia and detained three foreigners suspected in the attempt, ​police said on Facebook ​on Tuesday. – Reuters

The European Union is finding support on an opponent’s turf ahead of trade talks with Beijing, as Chinese workers vent ​on social media about excessive overtime that critics say gives exporters an unfair advantage. – Reuters

A gunman opened fire with an automatic weapon near the Brussels Midi train station on Monday night amid a spate of shootings in the Belgian capital. – Politico

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has been invited to a meeting of EU trade ministers set to occur in October, two European diplomats with knowledge of the plans, granted anonymity to discuss the gathering, told POLITICO. – Politico

Poland, Norway, Lithuania and Latvia have signed a framework agreement to buy Piorun (Thunderbolt) man-portable air defense systems from Polish state-run defense group PGZ under a deal worth more than 8 billion zloty ($2.2 billion). – Defense News

Marc Champion writes: It took the killing of a British citizen as collateral damage, in the 2018 assassination attempt on former Russian military intelligence agent Sergei Skripal, for UK policy to harden. That pushback was overdue, but it also necessitates building up deterrence — including air defenses against long-range drones and missiles — and infrastructure resilience. For reasons of inertia and budgetary priorities, these things aren’t happening. None of this means that Russian threats of nuclear war are about to materialize. But it does suggest that the Kremlin’s planners have an abundance of choice in ways they can punish the UK for its stance on Ukraine. Burnham should take note, because his country simply isn’t ready. – Bloomberg

Africa

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu ordered the military and ​other security agencies on Tuesday to launch an immediate rescue operation after scores of people were kidnapped by gunmen in north-central ‌Niger State last week. – Reuters

Tanzania’s vice president has resigned less than a year into the job ​and President Samia Suluhu Hassan has accepted ‌the resignation, a government spokesperson said, without citing a reason. – Reuters

Uganda’s military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is also the son of the country’s long-ruling President Yoweri Museveni, said he would run for ​president in 2031. – Reuters

Guinea-Bissau, which is currently led by military officers who staged a coup last year, will hold a constitutional referendum ​on August 30 that would expand the power of ‌the presidency and reshape rules for elections scheduled for December. – Reuters

Four children were among at least 27 people killed in the latest ethnic clashes in southern Sudan, a local medical group said on Tuesday. – Associated Press

Armed men ambushed a patrol traveling to a remote area of South Sudan on Monday, killing two U.N. peacekeepers, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan said. Though violence is rampant in the African country, attacks against peacekeepers are rare. – Associated Press

The Americas

A contract that SLB and Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA signed last week has granted the ​U.S. oil services and technology company access to oilfield data from the country with the world’s largest crude reserves, three sources close to ‌the negotiations said. – Reuters

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz appointed Christian Morales ​as economy and public finance minister on Tuesday, signaling ‌policy continuity as his government seeks to stabilize the crisis-hit economy, secure foreign financing and push reforms through Congress. – Reuters

Brazil’s presidential campaigns are clashing ​over how to bring down long-term interest rates, with advisers to the leading candidates offering sharply ‌different prescriptions for reducing borrowing costs across the economy. – Reuters

Peru will welcome Pope Leo XIV in November with a hymn in honor of a Catholic nun killed by Maoist insurgents, celebrating the pontiff’s return to the country where he ​worked for decades as a missionary. – Reuters

The governor of Colombia’s Tolima province said Tuesday that criminal groups could be behind some of the forest fires that have burned almost 30,000 hectares (74,131 acres) of land this month in the country’s central region. – Associated Press

North America

Canada on Tuesday announced tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods, days after the U.S. escalated trade tension by enacting new levies on $20 billion of Canadian goods. The acrimony follows the collapse of trade talks between the two nations, which have a nearly $900 billion-a-year trading relationship. Canada’s new tariffs are set to take effect Sept. 8. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump threatened to change the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America, in the latest escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Canada after trade negotiations between the two countries collapsed. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is discussing additional trade penalties against Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled dollar-for-dollar retaliation to new tariffs imposed by the US on Saturday. – Bloomberg

Editorial: For the moment, both sides are digging in and the rhetoric leaves little room for compromise. But it isn’t too late to step back. Canada’s threatened retaliation for the new tariffs is promised to start by Sept. 8. That leaves time for discussions to resume. Carney’s room for compromise is close to zero because of the anger US policies have aroused. Washington should revert to the terms in play before the talks collapsed — and, more generally, recognize the benefits of trade disarmament in all its dealings with former friends and allies. – Bloomberg

United States

Republican and Democratic lawmakers on Tuesday called on the Trump administration to bar American citizens and businesses from supporting Chinese and ​Russian civilian intelligence and security agencies. – Reuters

President Donald Trump on Tuesday morning denied that the White House had sought to interfere with the French language spoken in Quebec, as the two countries trade jabs over who is at fault for the trade war. – Politico

Editorial: Also important is reducing the lengthy — and often duplicative — regulatory reviews that stymie space missions. Fortunately, the FAA proposed such reforms just last month to ease the licensing of commercial space technology. Competition is part of America’s comparative advantage. The heart of the U.S. space industry has always been the promise that big bets could reap big rewards. SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering underscored as much. That’s something totalitarian technocrats in Beijing and Moscow could never replicate. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

Songs that are wholly or largely created by generative A.I. will be banned from Australia’s music charts under new rules announced on Tuesday, but recordings that use the technology in a supporting role will still be allowed. – New York Times

Brazil’s data ‌protection authority, ANPD, has fined TikTok owner ByteDance 153.8 million reais ($29.81 million) for allegedly violating the country’s General Data Protection Law, according to a decision published in the official gazette on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross on Tuesday ratcheted up a joint call for countries to adopt bans and restrictions on use of autonomous weapons systems — often known as “killer robots” — warning that “the risks have intensified.” – Associated Press

Foreign governments have been trying to hack the messaging accounts of high-ranking European Union officials, the bloc’s cyber defense unit said in an internal presentation obtained by POLITICO. – Politico

When the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency tested defenses for two targets — one in the government sector and the other in the water sector — red teamers were able to get into both of their systems, but the water organization discovered the simulated attack and acted to defend itself, whereas the government organization did neither. – Cyberscoop

Law enforcement agencies in 22 countries coordinated on an eight-month cybercrime operation that saw 58 people arrested and hundreds of suspects identified. – The Record

A handful of Norwegian government services have been disrupted for more than a day after a large-scale cyberattack targeted the infrastructure used to operate them, authorities said. – The Record

The British government is seeking new powers that would allow it to ban technology vendors on national security grounds from supplying companies working in the country’s critical sectors — and to potentially do so in secret without publicly identifying the supplier concerned and barring the company from discussing the instruction. – The Record

Tal Kollender writes: The next breakthrough in critical infrastructure security isn’t another way to tell defenders what is wrong. It’s dramatically reducing the time identifying an exposure and eliminating it. Attackers don’t exploit reports. They exploit what we haven’t fixed. The systems that took down more than 30 water utilities were driven by the same boring loopholes I used to look for as a teenager. The uncomfortable truth is that the fix isn’t more sophisticated than the attack. It’s cyber hygiene applied continuously, everywhere, starting now. Iran isn’t waiting for this war to end before it looks for the next vulnerability, and neither should we. – The Hill

James Rogan writes: There is an obvious strategic logic behind all this activity. Nvidia generates extraordinary amounts of cash by selling AI infrastructure. It can recycle some of that cash into companies that build AI models, operate AI clouds, and construct data centers. Those companies, in turn, purchase or operate enormous quantities of Nvidia computing systems. More AI investment creates more demand for Nvidia products, which generates more cash that Nvidia can deploy throughout the ecosystem. Nvidia is no longer simply supplying the chips that power the AI revolution. Increasingly, it is supplying the capital that finances it. – Washington Examiner

Defense

The U.S. aircraft carrier the USS Abraham Lincoln will dock in Thailand next ​week, a Thai official said on Tuesday, following a prolonged deployment in ‌the Middle East and reports of mental health concerns and deteriorating conditions aboard. – Reuters

The Navy-backed test advances the company’s effort to provide an independent source of positioning, navigation and timing—commonly called PNT—for military and civilian users when GPS becomes unreliable. – Military.com

A U.S. military service member who called for President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance to ​be impeached is facing charges under the military justice ‌system, his lawyer and the Air Force said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Army helicopter crashes are on the rise. Since 2011, the military has used a fleet of around 820-840 AH-64 Apache helicopters, manufactured by Boeing, to destroy enemy armor, provide close air support for ground troops, and conduct armed reconnaissance. – Military.com 

The U.S. Navy is looking to add a new “standoff” anti-submarine warfare weapon system to its arsenal and is reaching out to industry to see what capabilities companies have to offer. – Defensescoop