Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump said Israel shouldn’t be striking targets in Gaza, as his envoy Jared Kushner met Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to salvage the president’s floundering plan to disarm Hamas and end the war in the Palestinian enclave. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will choose its candidates to fight in October elections on Monday, with analysts saying a shift further to the ​right by many members could threaten the Israeli leader’s chances of winning. – Reuters

White House envoy Jared Kushner met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for hours Monday, yielding an agreement to establish two working groups for disarmament and public health in the Gaza Strip, according to the Board of Peace and the Israeli leader’s office. – Politico

Israel and the United States have reached an understanding that, during the initial stage of Hamas’s disarmament, weapons handed over by the terrorist organization will be transferred to the proposed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the Palestinian technocratic government, and the International Stabilization Force (ISF.) – Jerusalem Post

US President Donald Trump declined on Monday to endorse any Israeli candidate in the upcoming October 27 national election, but said he may do so in the future, as speculation swirled regarding an expected endorsement for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Times of Israel

Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that he had instructed the Israel Defense Forces to submit within two weeks a plan to “transfer responsibility for civilian enforcement in the West Bank to the Israel Police,” a move widely seen as impractical in the lead-up to a national election. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Kushner should keep the channel open as long as it produces concrete results. Those results should be easy to identify: weapons surrendered, tunnels destroyed, armed formations dismantled, and governing authority transferred to a body in which Hamas has no role. This should be simple. If these meetings help remove Hamas from Gaza’s military and political future, they will have served a purpose. If Hamas emerges from the war weakened on the battlefield while securing a permanent place at Washington’s negotiating table, the process will have preserved something Israel went to war to eliminate. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Steelmaker Arcelor triangle said two employees were killed in a missile strike on a site in Ukraine over the weekend, and others were injured. – Wall Street Journal

As Nikolai Rybakov, the leader of Russia’s only antiwar party, walked through central Moscow, the growing sentiment against the conflict in Ukraine was easy to see. – New York Times

The Russian drone pilots had bedded down for the night. Their white vehicle was parked in the driveway of a small house in occupied southern Ukraine. – New York Times

Ukraine launched 620 drones at Moscow and surrounding areas into the early hours of Tuesday morning, the capital’s mayor ​said, in one of Kyiv’s biggest air assaults ​on the region, while Russian-annexed Crimea said it suffered power ⁠outages after strikes. – Reuters

Russia attacked facilities of Ukraine’s Naftogaz Group 13 times over the past week and has targeted its premises almost 300 times since the start of the year, the state energy company said Monday. – Associated Press

Russia’s hybrid war in Europe has already begun, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said, following warnings of Moscow’s attempts to intimidate nations supporting Ukraine. – Bloomberg

A Greek-run oil tanker was attacked in the Black Sea after loading a Russian-origin cargo, the latest example of how the nation’s war with Ukraine is disrupting petroleum flows. – Bloomberg

Ukraine called on the European Union to sanction the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom on Monday, hours after a POLITICO investigation revealed allegations of safety and engineering failures at one of the company’s flagship projects. – Politico

Pedro Ordein writes: Ukraine must conclude that peace offers a better path to sovereignty, reconstruction, and security than endless mobilization. Russia must conclude that another offensive would impose greater military, economic, and political costs than any additional territory could justify. That is how this war can actually end. Not when both sides agree about the past. Not when one side suddenly trusts the other. But when the future becomes more valuable than another round of fighting. The war will end only when both sides conclude that returning to war is more costly than preserving the peace. And peace will endure only when breaking it costs more than keeping it. – Washington Examiner

Alexander Motyl writes: Fortunately, not all Russians share Kirill’s views, and even fewer are likely to subscribe to them in the event of a Russian defeat. Russian Orthodoxy will remain a handmaiden of the state for many years to come — and that may be the good news. For if Russians can succeed in shifting their state from the path of despotism, even if only a tad, that could encourage the state-aligned clergy to abandon Kirill and seek spiritual inspiration elsewhere. There is always hope, however frail. – Center for European Policy Analysis

David Kirichenko writes: Should Ukraine’s ongoing drone counter operations lead to successful results, the challenge will still remain around civilians being used as human shields. Nonetheless, Western policymakers should not allow this practice to be normalized, and Russian soldiers and commanders who engage in this practice must be punished. And every year that the war goes on, the more that these civilians are likely to be forgotten, condemning them to Russian brutality and occupation. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Ilan Berman writes: As such, September’s election is shaping up to be at least a symbolic referendum on the war – and on Putin’s leadership. Indeed, as the Washington Post lays out, “Yabloko [had] campaigned under the slogan ‘For Peace and Freedom,’ a clear counter to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s push for conquest in Ukraine.” That, in turn, made Russia’s remaining liberals a domestic political target, because as the consequences of its adventurism increasingly come home, even the potential for limited dissent has become a threat to the Kremlin’s preferred worldview. – Forbes

Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call to pursue talks with Iran to de-escalate ​tensions between the two countries, and offered Ankara’s support for peace ‌efforts, the Turkish presidency said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was received at Khalifa Haftar’s family compound in Benghazi on Aug. 12, becoming the first Turkish diplomat of his rank to be welcomed in eastern Libya in more than a decade and giving Ankara diplomatic access to both halves of the divided country. – Jerusalem Post

Jose Lev Alvarez writes: First, the Coast Guard should deny port entry to vessels utilizing Turkish-operated Latin American terminals. Second, Congress must mandate secondary sanctions on maritime syndicates underwriting Yilport assets. Finally, the State Department should revoke visas for officials backing Ankara’s “Los Turcos” mapping initiatives. American complacency has handed Erdogan uncontested ground. Allowing these commercial beachheads to solidify gives Turkey a dangerous launchpad to export its state-sponsored Muslim Brotherhood ideology. Erdogan’s Islamist networks actively subvert regional institutions, transforming commercial access into a permanent intelligence architecture on America’s doorstep. Washington must dismantle these adversarial outposts before this threat becomes permanent. – Washington Examiner

Gulf States

The White House for weeks promised that Iran was close to signing a nuclear deal and that Oman could be helpful in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The tiny Gulf nation suddenly found itself at the center of the effort to end the war. – Wall Street Journal

Most Gulf stock markets fell on Monday as stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy revived fears of a prolonged conflict, while reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ​added to concerns over energy supplies and trade flows. – Reuters

Weather conditions and operational challenges were hampering salvage efforts for a grounded tanker that was leaking Russian crude oil in a protected marine ​area off Oman’s coast, the sultanate’s state news agency reported on ‌Monday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia has continued a trajectory of educational reform in its 2025 to 2026 school textbooks, according to a newly published report by the Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se). – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Xavier Brunson visited South Korea’s Defence Ministry on Tuesday to discuss plans to scale back the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercise, according ​to media reports. – Reuters

South Korea on Monday expressed hopes for resumption of diplomacy between the U.S. and North Korea to ease animosities on the Korean Peninsula, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s order to cut military exercises with South Korea caused concerns it might hurt the allies’ readiness against North Korean threats. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has responded to requests for the two leaders to have a conversation, as Trump moved to cut back military drills with South Korea, a longtime US ally. – Bloomberg

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung called for swift progress in consultations with the US on the country’s plan to acquire its first nuclear-powered submarine after President Donald Trump ordered curbs on joint military drills with the ally, citing its lack of support for his war with Iran. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump is reprising his first-term threats to pull the U.S. back from South Korean military exercises in part because of frustrations over the pace of Seoul’s $350 billion investment pledge, according to three people familiar with the discussions. – Politico

Editorial: On that note, Mr. Trump might be trying to change the subject from the stalemate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Or he might be trying to appease Mr. Kim at a moment when U.S. weapons stocks and deployments are stretched. The U.S. is currently moving its last aircraft carrier task force out of the western Pacific to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln that is coming home after an extended deployment. China is happy to see the USS George Washington leave the Pacific, as it seeks to persuade countries in the region that they can’t count on the U.S. for defense. China may not use this opportunity to move against Taiwan, but it has been ratcheting up its aggressive moves against Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines in the East and South China Seas. – Wall Street Journal

James Stavridis writes: For his part, President Trump believes he has a good relationship with Kim – he should put that relationship to the test by insisting on Pyongyang working with the new government in Seoul. Set small, achievable steps such as reopening tourism and communications. Move to confidence-building measures in the military sphere. And possibly engage in talks along the lines suggested by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to formally end the state of war. The North Korean problem is not going to solve itself. Having a relatively low cost, sensible strategic approach is the best way to ensure it doesn’t go high order while we try to solve even more acute crises in the Middle East and Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Michael Sobolik writes: The challenge of North Korea isn’t the lack of dealmaking presidents or petulant partners in Seoul, but Pyongyang’s Communist ideology, Washington’s failure to prevent its nuclearization, and haphazard policies that have oscillated from confrontation to conciliation. Trump is unknowingly playing into that perverse pattern. By doing so, he is projecting weakness to Kim Jong-un’s northern neighbor and East Asia’s most powerful dictator. Canceling military exercises with South Korea is likely unfinished business from Trump’s first term. The day may come when the president sees the wisdom of his former advisors who counseled against doing so. – Daily Wire

South Asia

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party replaced its social media head on Monday as part of an organisational reshuffle, the party said, ​weeks after youth-led protests amplified through social media forced the resignation of the ‌education minister. – Reuters

Indian security agencies arrested more than 200 “terror operatives” linked to ​Pakistan, thwarting potential “subversive attacks” around the country’s Independence ‌Day last week, Home Minister Amit Shah said on Monday, in one of the largest such crackdowns in years. – Reuters

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party named a new slate of national party leaders as it gears up for crucial state elections, including in the political bellwether of Uttar Pradesh. – Bloomberg

Five years after the Taliban seized power on August 15, 2021, Afghan women and girls remain trapped at the center of a deepening human rights crisis, stripped of many of the rights, freedoms and opportunities that once shaped their lives. – Jerusalem Post

Europe

The British prime minister, Andy Burnham, exchanged brief text messages with a person he thought was President Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, a government official said on Monday. – New York Times

Thousands attended a vigil ​in central London on Monday for Jason Arday, a former University of Cambridge sociology professor who ‌was found dead on Friday after weeks of intense scrutiny over accusations of plagiarism and other claims. – Reuters

Rain over eastern Belgium on Monday brought some relief to firefighters ‌battling to contain the country’s biggest wildfire on record, which had threatened to reach the German border. – Reuters

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb rejected the notion that the US is strong-arming NATO allies with a questionnaire gauging their support for President Donald Trump’s policies. – Bloomberg

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the government launched a full review of state contracts with the 4iG Nyrt. defense and telecommunications conglomerate, in an attempt to recover billions of dollars in taxpayer money. – Bloomberg

The personal mobile phone numbers of three U.K. Cabinet ministers — including Defense Secretary Wes Streeting — have been found published online alongside their names. – Politico

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs wants Brussels to hand over €7 billion to help cover the military and economic costs of confronting Russia, as pressure grows over the price of the country’s hard line on Moscow. – Politico

The Americas

Canada is bracing for a U.S. tariff deadline arriving at midnight on Tuesday, when a number of new levies by the Trump administration will come into effect unless negotiators strike an 11th-hour deal. – New York Times

Brazil’s Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on Monday that the country faces a “painful final mile” of fiscal reforms to ​address high interest rates, rising public debt and household leverage ‌hovering around record levels. – Reuters

The economic losses from a powerful earthquake that ‌struck Colombia last week are expected to reach 30 trillion pesos ($9.58 billion), Colombia’s President Abelardo De La Espriella said on Monday. – Reuters

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on Monday that oil drilling in northern and northeastern coastal regions could be “a passport to the country’s future” after visiting a Petrobras offshore drilling vessel following a find announced last week near the mouth of the Amazon River. – Associated Press

Colombia’s President Abelardo de la Espriella has asked his ally U.S. President Donald Trump to suspend tariffs to help the South American nation recover from a powerful earthquake that killed at least 289 people. – Associated Press

A Venezuelan mogul who minted a fortune selling power turbines and pumping oil has emerged as the Trump administration’s fixer for promoting “America First” deals for favored US companies, as Washington moves to exert more influence in the resource-rich South American country. – Bloomberg

Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: All that only strengthens the case for finding a political exit before the fight for Trump’s succession starts gathering steam. A transition of this scale is unlikely without sustained US involvement. But that involvement comes at a cost: It puts Washington on the hook to actually deliver. Therein lies the contradiction of playing empire in the 21st century. Trump can joke about Venezuela becoming the 51st state, the State Department can claim the whole Western Hemisphere as its backyard and cynics can point to the materialistic drivers of Maduro’s removal. But ownership carries obligation. Once a great power annexes another country’s problems, it inherits its future. And Venezuela’s future will cost Washington far more time and political capital than simply removing one troublesome oil guy. – Bloomberg

Andrés Martínez-Fernández and Wilson Beaver write: The conservative electoral victories in the Andean nations of Colombia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia have created an unprecedented opportunity for the renewal of U.S. leadership in the Western Hemisphere. After decades of American disengagement, the region now faces the converging threats of surging narco-terrorism, mass migration, organized crime, and the growing influence of China, Russia, and Iran. The United States should seize this strategic moment by deepening military-to-military ties, strengthening counternarcotics and border security efforts, and expanding intelligence-sharing both to stabilize the region and to counter adversarial encroachment near America’s own borders. – Heritage Foundation

Cybersecurity

Apple will change rules governing how app developers can use personal ​data for targeted advertising on iPhones and iPads, ‌Germany’s competition authority said, on Monday, closing a years-long investigation. – Reuters

A company that runs AI testing labs involved in a series of breaches carried out by Anthropic and OpenAI’s cyber-focused models said the incident happened in part because they “unintentionally” provided the models with access to the internet. – CyberScoop

A cybercrime group responsible for a string of recent attacks against private equity firms, law firms and financial rating agencies remains active and continued to target new victims as of late last week, according to researchers. – CyberScoop

Ukraine’s military intelligence claimed it disrupted the operations of Russia’s largest online marketplace, Wildberries, in a cyberattack intended to amplify the impact of drone strikes on the company’s infrastructure. – The Record

James Lewis writes: These problems have existed since the dawn of the Internet. AI tools do not immediately change the risk versus cost equations, and while international negotiation can bound the problem of misuse, it cannot prevent it. Without more attention to cyber-defense, the situation will get worse. The most interesting thing about AI and cybersecurity is that it may finally force countries and companies to do things that they should have done long ago. – Center for European Policy Analysis