Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

U.S. hopes of closing a cease-fire deal for Gaza that could help calm tensions in a region on the brink of a wider war are running into a basic snag—everyone seems to agree it is time to stop the fighting, except for the two people who will have to sign off on it. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians have surged in the West Bank, but a riot on Thursday in the village of Jit stood out for drawing rapid and unusual rebukes from Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition government includes West Bank settlers in top positions. – New York Times

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday told Turkey’s parliament he had decided to visit Gaza and Jerusalem to protest Israel’s war on the enclave, adding that he saw no end to the conflict unless Israel withdrew from occupied Palestinian lands. – Reuters

An Israeli drone killed two Palestinian gunmen in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, the Israeli military said. – Reuters

A Hamas guard who killed an Israeli hostage acted “in revenge” and against instructions after he heard news that his two children had been killed in an Israeli strike, a spokesperson for the group’s armed wing said on Thursday. – Reuters

Some families of hostages held in Gaza believe the latest round of cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas could be the last best chance to set their loved ones free after more than 300 days of captivity. – Associated Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied a report that he spoke with former President Donald Trump about a hostage deal with Hamas, saying the two didn’t speak at all. – Washington Examiner

Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara held meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about preventing the International Criminal Court (ICC) from issuing arrest warrants, in which she pressured him to form an independent commission to investigate the humanitarian situation in Gaza, according to Israeli media reports on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to go to New York to address the UN General Assembly in late September, Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador-designate to the UN, told the Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

France and Britain’s foreign ministers will make a brief visit to Israel Friday and meet with Foreign Minister Israel Katz to discuss efforts to prevent a regional conflagration, the ministry announced, as the military remained on high alert in anticipation of potential attacks by Hezbollah and Iran. – Times of Israel

From the far-right fringes of Israeli politics, Bezalel Smotrich called for years for the annexation of the West Bank. Now, as a minister at the heart of government, he is using little-known policy levers to quietly steer the occupied territory in that direction. – Wall Street Journal

More than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip, the local Health Ministry said Thursday — a bleak indicator of the war’s toll even as a full count remained out of reach amid a near-total collapse of the enclave’s health-care system. – Washington Post

Israeli negotiators and international mediators met in Qatar on Thursday for talks aimed at halting fighting in Gaza and securing the release of hostages held by the Hamas terror group, with a potential deal touted as the best hope of heading off an even larger regional conflict. – Times of Israel

Avi Issacharoff writes: Given these factors, the likelihood of a major escalation remains low if the parties act rationally. However, two significant points must be considered: first, there is no certainty that all players will adhere to the expected rules of engagement. Second, even a limited response from Iran or Hezbollah could result in civilian casualties if a missile or rocket strikes Israel. Such an incident would compel Israel to retaliate, potentially escalating the conflict further. – Ynet

Michael Rubin writes: Norway’s actions were worse, however: By rewarding Palestinians with a recognized state absent any negotiated agreement and legitimizing terror in the name of resistance, the Norwegian government creates disincentives to further negotiation. Norway’s actions erase any leverage, for example, to prevent a Palestinian state from welcoming foreign forces such as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to establish a base within its territory. By not tying statehood to an end to terrorism, Norway guarantees renewed terror. – Middle East Forum Observer

Russia & Ukraine

As Ukrainian troops poured into Russia’s Kursk region last week, five Russian assault troops on motorbikes were zipping toward Ukraine’s front line hundreds of miles to the east. – Wall Street Journal

A Russian court sentenced a dual U.S.-Russian national to 12 years in a penal colony, after finding her guilty of treason for donating funds to aid the Ukrainian army at the start of the war. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s offensive into Russia has expanded to the region of Belgorod, with fierce fighting underway there as Kyiv’s forces in the neighboring region of Kursk showed signs of solidifying control Thursday. – Washington Post

Russia and Ukraine should negotiate an end to their conflict to avoid the war spilling over into Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, a key ally of Vladimir Putin, said in an interview with Russian state television. – Reuters

Kremlin aide Nikolai Patrushev said on Friday that the U.S.-led military alliance and the West were directly involved in the planning for Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s Kursk region. – Reuters

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak denied his country’s involvement in explosions which damaged the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and instead pointed the finger at Russia in comments to Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters

Ukraine said there was no sign Russian military pressure was receding along the eastern front inside its borders on Thursday, more than a week after its incursion into Russia, and reported the heaviest fighting in weeks near Pokrovsk. – Reuters

Russia said on Thursday that it would beef up border defences, improve command and control and send in additional forces nearly 10 days after Ukraine made the biggest attack on Russian sovereign territory since World War Two. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that his country’s troops had taken full control of Sudzha, the largest Russian town to fall to Ukraine’s forces since the start of their cross-border incursion more than a week ago. – Associated Press

Russian authorities have refused to open a criminal investigation into the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny who died in an Arctic penal colony, his widow Yulia said Thursday. – Associated Press

Ukraine and Russia have begun negotiations to exchange prisoners of war, according to the Ukrainian Parliament’s Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, as Ukraine troops advance deeper into Russia’s Kursk region. – New York Sun

A Russian physicist has urged President Vladimir Putin in a letter to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons to speed up the outcome of the war and cut off supply routes that facilitate the transport of aid from Western nations. – Newsweek

Explosions were reported in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian region of Crimea overnight and traffic was stopped on the Kerch Bridge, which links the region to Russia, Russian-imposed local officials said. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has submitted to parliament a bill on the ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and its amendments, the president’s office announced on August 15. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Editorial: Ukraine has proved yet again its determination to resist Russian aggression despite long odds, discrediting those who argue its cause is unworthy or futile. The United States and Europe should give Ukraine all possible means to end the war in a position of strength and as a functioning, prosperous democracy aligned with the West. – Washington Post

James Stavridis writes: War is ultimately about measuring risk and return. By sending 10,000 troops and supporting arms into Russia, the Ukrainians are accepting a great deal of risk. But the returns thus far — in terms of prisoners, territory and morale — are already significant. It may be a move that ultimately is more about the negotiating table than the battlefield, and in that sense it is a smart play indeed. – Bloomberg

Nataliya Gumenyuk writes: Today, it is not abusive Russian occupiers that Ukrainians in the east fear most, but Russian bombs and Russian drones. They know that the Kremlin’s forces no longer have the capability to capture their cities and try to make them Russian. But along the frontlines, they can destroy what they can’t dominate, forcing Ukrainians to abandon their homes. – Foreign Affairs

Middle East & North Africa

A Jordanian citizen residing in Orlando, Florida, was charged with threatening to use explosives and destruction of an energy facility after threats against businesses for their perceived support of Israel, the U.S. Justice Department said. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday issued more sanctions targeting Houthi and Hezbollah trade networks, the U.S. Treasury Department said, as Washington increases pressure on Tehran and the Iranian-backed groups. – Reuters

Yemen’s rival parties are making military preparations and threatening to return to war as hunger and cholera are increasing in the Arab world’s poorest nation, U.N. officials said Thursday. – Associated Press

Independent experts with the United Nations urged Bahrain on Thursday to ensure those held at its Jaw prison have access to adequate food, water and medical care after they received allegations guards have cut air conditioning in the island kingdom’s sweltering summer. – Associated Press

CIA director Bill Burns earlier this week awarded the head of the Qatari State Security Agency, Abdullah bin Mohammed Al-Khulaifi, the “George Tenet” medal for his work on strengthening intelligence cooperation between the U.S. and Qatar, according to two sources with knowledge of the issue. – Axios 

China

Rail links will be high on the agenda when Vietnam’s newly appointed leader To Lam meets China’s President Xi Jinping next week, officials said, as the neighbours seek to boost trade and improve supply chains. – Reuters

China will support a democratic transition in Myanmar and backs a regional plan to find a way out of the ongoing crisis in the Southeast Asian country, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday during a visit to Thailand. – Reuters

China’s Commerce Ministry announced Thursday that it will restrict exports of a mineral used in a wide range of products from batteries to weapons. – Associated Press

A continued property crisis and weak consumption dragged on China’s economic recovery in July, according to data released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics. – Associated Press

David Fickling writes: It’s on track to consume more electricity per person this year than Germany or France. That’s a sign of a development model that’s still careening out of control. A world that’s hoping to grow even as it reins in carbon emissions needs to see that China can thread that tricky needle. The challenge for Beijing is now to repeat the trick year after year — all the way to zero. – Bloomberg

Asia

Thailand’s parliament elected political neophyte Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its youngest prime minister on Friday, only a day after she was thrust into the spotlight amid an unrelenting power struggle between the country’s warring elites. – Reuters

Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto has secured a parliamentary majority after the party that backed his rival in the February elections announced it was joining his big-tent coalition. – Reuters

Beijing weaponized tourism to the Pacific archipelago of Palau over its allegiance to Taiwan and its accusations that China was behind a major cyberattack there, President Surangel Whipps Jr. told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to step up his country’s effort to defend a rules-based international order in a peace pledge made Thursday on the 79th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II. – Associated Press

Kazakhstan is drawing a new line in its enforcement of sanctions targeting Russia, vowing to put its own economic interests first as it also deepens trade ties with countries from Iran to China. – Bloomberg

Dubbed “Falcon Strike 2024,” the war games begin Sunday, with planes from Thailand and the People’s Republic of China taking off from the Royal Thai Air Base at Udorn in northeastern Thailand, whence American warplanes flew missions in the Vietnam War. – New York Sun

Linda Sieg writes: Whether a new leader will revive the LDP’s tattered fortunes seems likely to depend on who wins, and how, as well as the main opposition party’s struggle to convince the public it can govern. “If it’s a brokered election and they pick a veteran who thinks they’re entitled, a bounce would be short-lived,” Koll said, adding that a generational change could boost support and spark a snap election. – Foreign Policy

Africa

The deputy leader of South African opposition party the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) said on Thursday he was resigning to join the party led by former president Jacob Zuma, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK). – Reuters

Sudan’s sovereign council said on Thursday it would allow the use of the Adre border crossing with Chad for three months – a move long waited by aid agencies seeking to send aid into areas of the Darfur region that are threatened with famine.- Reuters

South Sudan’s controversial security legislation allowing the arrest of people without warrants has become law even though the president has not signed it, parliament’s spokesperson said Thursday. – Associated Press

South African prosecutors withdrew immigration-related charges against 95 Libyan nationals who were arrested last month at what police called an illegal military training camp in the northern Mpumalanga province, officials said Thursday. – Associated Press

Clashes between local rebels and pro-government militias in eastern Congo killed 16 villagers Thursday, a government official said, the latest violation of a cease-fire announced to help millions displaced in the region. – Associated Press

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Thursday to authorize the African Union to maintain its peacekeeping operation in Somalia until the end of the year, while also calling for plans for a successor mission, a key step toward the country’s takeover of its own security. – Associated Press

Imran Khalid writes: This disarray has given the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces ample opportunity to selectively engage with peace efforts based on whether these initiatives threaten to hold them accountable for their war crimes, including blocking humanitarian aid. Despite international warnings and sanctions, both sides remain more focused on military gains than on achieving peace. There is little appetite for a grand bargain or even a temporary ceasefire that could halt the bloodshed and allow for more effective diplomacy. The window for influential global actors to enforce a credible peace is rapidly closing, and the cost of inaction will be measured in further human suffering and regional instability. The time for decisive intervention is slipping away. – The Hill

Kyle Robertson writes: Russia’s growing influence in the Sahel should not be ignored by the United States and its partners. Its presence adds to the chaos afflicting the region and contributes to the influx of migrants toward Europe and the stresses weighing on governments in coastal and North Africa. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East rightfully captivate Washington, but it is important that the United States does not turn a blind eye to West Africa as Russia’s military, diplomatic, and economic presence, as well as its popularity, continue to grow. – Washington Institute

United States

U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday seemingly backed a new election in Venezuela, after Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also floated the idea, despite rebuffs from Venezuela’s ruling party and its opposition which both claim victory in the July 28 contest. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden met with Russian opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza and his family in the White House on August 15. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Editorial: This summer three Columbia deans resigned after a text thread in which they mocked panelists discussing campus antisemitism. The deans and Ms. Shafik are gone now, but others like them will return to campus. Columbia professor Joseph Massad wrote last year that Oct. 7 involved a “stunning victory of the Palestinian resistance over the Israeli military.” Applicants to replace Ms. Shafik should be asked what they think the university ought to do about that. – Wall Street Journal

Shay Khatiri writes: Doing so would strengthen America’s hand to coerce these adversaries into submission and ultimately call their bluffs. America was lucky not to lose a major city to a Soviet nuclear attack. There is no guarantee that luck would hold today. Rather than dismiss Mr. Trump’s proposal, we should take it as an opportunity to revisit the critical issue of nuclear defense. He’d be doing the country, and the world, a service by raising it during the presidential race. – Wall Street Journal

Michael Lucchese writes: The national security threats facing the U.S. call for an unshakable resolution. As adversaries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia go on the march, the world needs an American president ready to respond with bold and firm leadership. Our retreat from Afghanistan proved that the Biden-Harris administration was not up to the task. It is doubtful a Harris-Walz administration would be much different. – Washington Examiner

Reps. Joe Wilson and Steve Cohen write: It is our duty to our principles, to our obligations under the Genocide Convention and to history to formally recognize what we already know to be true. Let us stand united in declaring that the U.S. will not turn a blind eye to genocide. Let us show the world that we are committed to justice, human dignity and the protection of the innocent. Together, we can make a difference and help bring an end to the suffering in Ukraine. – The Hill

Defense

The U.S. State Department told the U.S. Congress on Thursday that Australia, Britain and the United States now have comparable export-control regimes, a significant step needed to facilitate technology sharing and allow the trilateral AUKUS defense pact to move ahead. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of the latest variant of Patriot missiles to Germany in a deal that could be worth an estimated $5 billion, according to a Thursday Defense Security Cooperation Agency notification. – Defense News

Lockheed Martin announced Thursday it will acquire small-satellite provider Terran Orbital for $450 million in a move by the defense giant to expand its space portfolio. – Defense News

The Pentagon said Thursday that nearly half of the troops it deployed to the Mediterranean as part of the mission to deliver aid to Gaza via a temporary pier are either home or will be home shortly. – Military.com