Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s new offensive in Gaza City could take weeks to start, leaving the door open for a ceasefire, officials say, even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it would get underway “fairly quickly” and end the war with Hamas’ defeat. – Reuters

A growing willingness among Israeli news media to critically explore the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has all but evaporated in recent weeks after militant group Hamas released videos of two emaciated Israeli hostages. – Reuters

Palestinians reported the heaviest bombardments in weeks on Monday in areas east of Gaza City, just hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he expected to complete a new expanded offensive against Hamas “fairly quickly”. – Reuters

Italy will consider implementing sanctions against Israel, not as a move against the Jewish state, “but as a way to save its citizens from a government that has lost its reason and humanity,” Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview with the Italian daily newspaper La Stampa that was published on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s security cabinet has approved a sweeping plan to take full military control of Gaza City and the wider Gaza Strip, a move Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced amid an intensifying conflict that has devastated the besieged territory. – Newsweek

New satellite imagery reveals a significant buildup of Israeli troops and military equipment near the Gaza border, signaling preparations for a major ground offensive in the Palestinian enclave. – Newsweek

Jonas Du writes: According to data from the United Nations, 88 percent of aid trucks between May 19 and August 5 were looted by either “armed actors” or “hungry people.” According to the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency, Hamas looted at least 60 percent of the aid entering Gaza in 2024. Dozens of videos shared on social media appear to show militants stealing aid in Gaza. All of this would have been clear to Reuters with an unbiased reading of the source material. But time after time, the legacy media has failed to accurately present basic facts about the situation in Gaza. The only question is: Why? – Free Press

Paushali Lass writes: Hamas has, until now, faced no lasting consequence for its atrocities. Why would it change? What incentive does it have to negotiate or compromise when it sees the world turning its anger, not at the terrorists, but at the country defending itself? Of course, this is a deeply delicate situation, one where the safety of hostages must be the highest priority. I can only hope that Israel’s leadership, military, and intelligence forces are using their most advanced capabilities to find and rescue them. This is a moment that demands cleverness, restraint, and above all, faith. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Expectations in Russia are running high ahead of Friday’s planned summit between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and President Trump. – Wall Street Journal

European leaders, fearful that President Trump will cut a deal with Vladimir Putin that undermines Ukraine and puts the continent’s security at risk, are planning another meeting with him ahead of a scheduled U.S.-Russia summit, European officials said. – Wall Street Journal

Col. Dmytro Voloshyn walked out of Ukraine’s military headquarters in Kyiv on a warm June day last year, carrying a hard drive loaded with 100 gigabytes of top-secret maps and images. – Washington Post

With President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin preparing to meet in Alaska on Friday, ending the Russian leader’s years of diplomatic isolation with the West, Ukraine’s sidelined leaders warned that the Kremlin would try to “deceive America” as Mr. Trump pushed to end the war. – New York Times

Ukraine has retaken two villages in its eastern region of Sumy, Kyiv’s military said, adding to recent small territorial gains along the border with Russia ahead of peace talks at a summit of the U.S. and Russian leaders set for Friday. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that both Ukraine and Russia would have to cede land to each other to end the war and that his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin would be aimed at taking the temperature on a possible deal. – Reuters

Editorial: Mr. Trump wants to be known as a peacemaker, especially in Ukraine. But peace is easy to reach if you concede what an aggressor wants. If the U.S. President wants a lasting peace, he’ll need a settlement that gives Ukraine the freedom to determine its own future and the security to defend itself when Mr. Putin inevitably returns to grab more Ukrainian territory. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: There’s no indication Putin wants that kind of deal. It would do nothing to further his actual goals in going to war, which were to secure control over a de-militarized Ukraine as well as US acceptance of a Russian sphere of influence in Europe, uncontested by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Putin never hides this. It’s what he means when he says he’s happy to talk about a ceasefire, just as soon as the “root causes” of the war are addressed. There will be a time and place for a Trump-Putin summit. But it’s unlikely to be this week in Alaska. – Bloomberg

Dan Perry writes: If Trump can do that, he may indeed bring the Ukraine war to a close. If he can also force Netanyahu to end the Gaza war, a Nobel Peace Prize ceases to be absurd. History works in strange ways, through the strangest of agents. – The Hill

Harlan Ullman writes: So what leverage does Trump have over Putin, and Putin over Trump? Putin knows Trump wants to end the war. Is Putin seeking a 2025 version of the infamous 1938 Munich Agreement in which United Kingdom Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain sought “peace for our time” or a real solution? – The Hill

Eric Schmidt and Greg Grant write: Ukraine produced more than two million drones in 2024 and plans to make over four million by the end of 2025. Its adversary is also getting better at drone production: last year, Russia was building 300 Shahed drones a month. Now, it can produce 5,000 in the same time frame. The side that consistently builds the most drones is the one most likely to prevail. And it is in the interest of the West, and of the United States in particular, to support the Ukrainian people in their dogged determination to win that fight—not only for Ukraine’s sake, but also for its own, so it can learn to reckon with this new reality of war. – Foreign Affairs

Andreas Umland writes: By demanding concessions in contradiction to international law, Putin will seek to undermine the global order further, divide the Western alliance, weaken the West’s partnership with Ukraine, and, as far as possible, sow internal discord in Ukraine. Moscow will try to lure Washington and other Western capitals with sham concessions and promises of de-escalation. As it has done repeatedly since February 2014, the Kremlin will try to pass the blame to Ukraine for the collapse of negotiations it has already designed to fail. – National Interest

Middle East & North Africa

Firefighters in Turkey are battling wildfires in the centre of the northwestern province of Canakkale, fanned by strong winds, and hundreds of residents have evacuated in precaution, local authorities and media said on Monday. – Reuters

Egyptian officials are facing mounting criticism and accusations from Hamas, particularly over their control of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, which has sparked fears of escalating tensions with Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Ahead of the UN Security Council discussion on extending the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) taking place later this month, Israel and the United States have informed Council members that they oppose an automatic renewal of the mandate and are demanding a reassessment of the force’s necessity. – Jerusalem Post

Today, it hosts Israel-Turkey discussions and initiatives with Syria. Today, it hosts Israel-Turkey discussions and initiatives with Syria.If genuine peace talks between Israel and Syria ever begin, there is a real chance that this historic dialogue will take place in Baku, on the shores of the Caspian Sea. – Jerusalem Post

China

A $16 billion merger of two state-controlled shipbuilders in China is set for completion this week, creating the world’s biggest shipbuilder while the U.S. searches for a path back into the business. – Wall Street Journal 

Jensen Huang, chief executive of California-based chip designer Nvidia, worked for months behind the scenes in Washington and Beijing to protect tens of billions of dollars in future sales from the heated U.S.-China trade rivalry. – Wall Street Journal

A China coast guard ship barreled into a Chinese navy destroyer on Monday as the two vessels chased a Philippine coast guard ship in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. – Washington Post

Hilltop after hilltop in this remote part of Indonesia is being scalped of vegetation. On the horizon, excavators lumber forward, gouging out rocks veined yellow. Nearby, milky chemicals collect in Olympic pool-sized trenches. – Washington Post

President Trump signed an executive order on Monday extending a trade truce between the United States and China for another three months, continuing a reprieve from the threat of escalating tariffs and export controls, which rocked the global economy earlier this year. – New York Times

The United States and China clashed over the Panama Canal at the United Nations on Monday, with the U.S. warning that Beijing’s influence over the key waterway could threaten global trade and security and China calling U.S. accusations a pretext to take over the canal. – Associated Press

China’s foreign-policy apparatus is again facing questions about succession after the reported questioning of a top figure who had been widely viewed as the nation’s next foreign minister. – Bloomberg

David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic write: Beijing’s role has evolved far beyond mere economic support; it now functions as the logistical backbone of Russia’s military-industrial complex. This arrangement allows China to test its industrial capacity to support a partner in a sustained, high-intensity conflict—and to understand the implications for supporting its own forces in combat—all while maintaining a veneer of plausible deniability. This strategic priority was laid bare in a July 2025 discussion where, according to an official briefed on the talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a top EU diplomat that Beijing could not accept a Russian defeat, as it would risk allowing the United States to turn its full attention to China. – National Interest

Asia

Authorities in Taiwan were scrambling on Tuesday to evacuate hundreds ahead of a possible landfall by Typhoon Podul on the island’s southeastern coast, while nearby areas battle to recover from floods and record winds brought by previous storms. – Reuters

Armenia and Azerbaijan published the text of a U.S.-brokered peace agreement on Monday, pledging to respect each other’s territorial integrity and formally put an end to nearly four decades of conflict. – Reuters

New Zealand parliamentarian Chloe Swarbrick was ordered to leave parliament on Tuesday during a heated debate over the government’s response to Palestine. – Reuters

Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu was “in denial” about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, a day after announcing Australia would recognise a Palestinian state for the first time. – Reuters

Hundreds of thousands of Cambodian migrant workers have been heading home from Thailand as the two countries work to keep a ceasefire in armed clashes along their border. – Associated Press

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s approval rating has dropped to the lowest level since he took office last year, underscoring the hit he has taken from a range of political setbacks. – Bloomberg

Australia last week announced a $6.5 billion deal to buy advanced warships from Japan, a move that can go a long way to making Canberra a Pacific maritime power and Tokyo a major weapons exporter, analysts say. – CNN

Miras Zhiyenbayev writes: What’s needed now is political will in Washington to turn plans into action and fund the modest programs that can have an outsized impact, send high-level officials regularly to Astana, reinvigorate the C5+1 platform with regular senior-level meetings, and follow through on the Critical Minerals Dialogue with actual investment projects. Even incremental, consistent US engagement can yield major strategic and economic returns over time by strengthening Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and prosperity. It would, in effect, shore up a front-line against authoritarian influence and create new linkages in global supply networks that benefit everyone. – National Interest

Africa

With the Trump administration gutting American humanitarian aid to Africa, refugees from war-torn countries have been reduced to literally fighting each other over the scraps of food that remain. – Wall Street Journal

Mali has arrested more than 30 soldiers and military officials accused of attempting to destabilise the government, two sources said, a sign of internal tensions as the West African nation’s leaders take steps to strengthen their hold on power. – Reuters

Nigeria’s military said it killed scores of armed gang members in a joint air and ground operation in a forested region in the northwest, an area plagued by mass abductions and attacks on villages. – Reuters

Kenya has invited international development lenders to finance a $2 billion expansion of its main airport in Nairobi nine months after it cancelled a deal with India’s Adani Group after its founder was indicted in the United States. – Reuters

The African Development Bank will contribute $500 million towards the financing of a new airport in Ethiopia – which is expected to be Africa’s largest when completed in 2029 – it said on Monday. – Reuters

The second biggest party in South Africa’s ruling coalition thinks the 30% tariff Donald Trump imposed on its exports to the U.S. will stay unless the government changes some domestic race policies such as affirmative action, its leader said on Monday. – Reuters

Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces launched attacks Monday in a famine-stricken displacement camp outside of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur province, killing 40 people, local rights groups said. – Associated Press

The Malian military government on Monday started returning home the historic manuscripts of Timbuktu, which were spirited out of their fabled northern city when it was occupied by al-Qaida-linked militants more than a decade ago. – Associated Press

United States

A generation ago conventional wisdom held that as China liberalized, its economy would come to resemble America’s. Instead, capitalism in America is starting to look like China. – Wall Street Journal

An explosion at a U.S. Steel facility in Pennsylvania has killed two people and injured 10 more, authorities said Monday. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is significantly escalating U.S. government criticism of perceived foes in South Africa and Brazil as the State Department’s political leadership reimagines America’s role in documenting human rights abuses around the world, according to leaked draft documents reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser called President Donald Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard in the nation’s capital “unsettling and unprecedented” as she sought to reassert the city government’s control over its police department. – Politico

Editorial: Nvidia argued that the restrictions benefit Beijing’s national chip champion Huawei and would result in China setting global AI standards rather than the U.S. Perhaps. But the Administration earlier insisted it wasn’t using chip controls as leverage in trade talks. Relaxing its curbs in exchange for trade concessions from China and payments from chip makers suggests the Administration’s real priority is deal-making in pursuit of more revenue. Step by step, Mr. Trump is expanding the long arm of the state into more of the private economy. Will any Republican object? Alas, probably not. – Wall Street Journal 

Javier Blas writes: For now, everything suggests the US is riding the OPEC+-induced oil price crash even better than the most optimistic had expected, and certainly a lot better than the naysayers’ dire predictions. With so much of the year already over, it’s clear that US oil production, on an annual average, will grow in 2025 relative to 2024. Any decline in 2026 will only come from a higher baseline — and probably be shallower than OPEC+ had hoped. If the cartel wants to subdue the American oil industry, it will need to drive prices even lower. – Bloomberg

Leo Terrell writes: The forces driving antisemitism, including Hamas and other terrorist groups, have made clear that their hatred will not stop with the Jewish people. Their ultimate target is the United States itself and the freedoms we all cherish. Defeating them is not just a moral imperative. The fight is for the safety and survival of every American. – Fox News

Defense

US President Donald Trump on Monday deployed military and federal law enforcement to curb violent crime in Washington, DC. The Republican leader said he would place the city’s Metropolitan Police under federal government control, while also sending the National Guard onto the streets of the US capital. – Agence – France Presse

The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is in port in Bahrain, marking the first time an aircraft carrier has visited the Middle Eastern country since 2020. – USNI News

Michael C. Loftus writes: Effective preparation for war demands robust and deliberate institutional capacity. Contingency plans and informed military decision-making processes similarly require time, expertise, and devoted public servants. At a minimum, the Department of Defense should take the two steps advocated here to prepare for the inevitable humanitarian exigencies of future war. The price of failing to do so — a price all too likely to be borne by civilians and U.S. servicemembers — will likely result in yet more lessons to be learned. – War on the Rocks