Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his Tuesday-night deadline, paving the way for the U.S. to target Iranian bridges and power plants in a fresh escalation of the war. – Wall Street Journal

Iranians who have weathered more than a month of war are bracing for things to get worse if President Trump acts on his threat to escalate attacks on civilian infrastructure. – Wall Street Journal

Iran and the United States are in “active” negotiations over a deal to end the war, President Donald Trump said at a news conference Monday, a week after he asserted that “great progress” had been made in “serious discussions.” – Washington Post

President Donald Trump threatened to force a news organization to turn over the name of an anonymous source who revealed details about a U.S. airman who went missing in Iran. Several outlets reported on the lost airman, who was subsequently rescued after his fighter jet was shot down. – Washington Post

Iran on Monday delivered a 10-point proposal to end the war with the United States and Israel, according to Iranian state media. The plan was conveyed by Pakistan, which has been acting as a primary intermediary in the conflict, but appeared unlikely to resolve major questions ahead of President Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for new attacks on Iran. – New York Times

Iranians from across the political spectrum expressed outrage on Monday at overnight strikes that hit Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, one of the country’s most prestigious academic institutions. It is the latest in a string of attacks that have battered Iran’s higher education centers. – New York Times

For the second time, Israel has attacked Iran’s South Pars natural gas and its associated petrochemical complex – an energy lifeline for Iran that both helps keep the lights on for civilians and provides a key source of export earnings. – Associated Press

Russian satellites have made dozens of detailed imagery surveys of military facilities and critical sites across the Middle East to help Iran strike U.S. forces ​and other targets, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment. – Reuters

Iran and Israel traded attacks on Tuesday as Tehran defiantly refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a ceasefire deal on ​the eve of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to agree to his demands or get “taken out.” – Reuters

President Donald Trump was on the verge of a crisis in the Iran war, faced with the rare instance of an American airman shot down and stranded ​deep inside enemy territory. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he will order sweeping attacks on Iranian civilian ​power plants and bridges on Tuesday night unless Tehran makes a deal aimed at ending the five-week war with Iran. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald ​Trump on Monday told ‌reporters that he thought the Iranian people should rise ​up against the government ​in the country if a ⁠ceasefire were declared, but understood ​that it was too dangerous ​for them to do so. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote on Tuesday on a resolution to ‌protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but in significantly watered-down form after veto-wielding China opposed authorizing force, diplomats said. – Reuters

The president of the International Committee of the Red Cross on Monday urged governments to ​respect the rules of war in word and ‌deed after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric against Iran by threatening to rain down “hell” on Tehran. – Reuters

Inaction by the UN nuclear watchdog “emboldens aggression” against ​nuclear facilities such as the ‌Bushehr power plant, Iran’s atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said on ​Monday in a letter addressed ​to the International Atomic Energy ⁠Agency’s director. – Reuters

Iran has formulated its positions and demands in response to ​recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries, ‌a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, adding that negotiations were “incompatible with ultimatums and ​threats to commit war crimes.” – Reuters

Iran has conveyed its ​response to the ‌U.S. proposal for ending the war ​to Pakistan, rejecting ​a ceasefire and emphasizing ⁠the necessity ​of a permanent end ​to the war, the official IRNA news ​agency said on ​Monday. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States has previously attempted to arm Iranian anti-regime protesters, but the weapons were diverted and never passed to the right people, threatening that those who kept the guns for themselves would “pay a big price.” – Agence France-Presse

Iran on Monday hanged a man convicted in connection with nationwide protests in January. Early morning executions have become near-daily events under the cover of the war against Israel and the United States. – Agence France-Presse

High-level sources have informed Fox News that during rescue efforts in Iran after a U.S. fighter jet was shot down, the commander of U.S. Central Command directed an attack against an underground Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters. – FOX News

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is incapacitated and receiving medical treatment in the Shi’ite holy city of Qom, according to The Times on Tuesday, citing a diplomatic memo said to be based on American and Israeli intelligence. – Jerusalem Post

The International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday said it can confirm recent impacts of military strikes close to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, but said that the plant itself was not damaged. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s internet blackout became the longest such nationwide shutdown ever recorded over the weekend, as the regime continued to face mounting military pressure, internal unrest, and growing isolation. – Algemeiner

Editorial: Energy sources can also be legitimate targets if they have a particularly notable military nexus, such as providing fuel for missile launchers. But not every energy target will meet that standard, and the military benefit doesn’t justify plunging 90 million people into darkness. One yardstick by which to judge any U.S. escalation is this: In addition to increasing “pressure,” which may never be enough to sway Iran’s regime, will it help prepare an operation to reopen Hormuz? The U.S. has a strong interest in causing chaos for Iran’s military, and targeting can allow it to do so without bombing every power plant in the country. – Wall Street Journal

Linas Kojala and Vytautas Leškevičius write: That is why allies should resist tit-for-tat rhetoric and focus on examples of working together. This is the backdrop to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s trip to Washington this week. The core message should be simple: Europe isn’t only a consumer of U.S. security. It is part of the machinery of American power projection, hosting roughly 80,000 U.S. troops and some 40 bases that both deter enemies and support operations far beyond the Continent. Europe may not want political responsibility for another Middle East war. But it remains strategically indispensable to Washington. Mr. Trump’s own campaign has made that plain. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: The reality is that for the US and the rest of the world (bar Israel), this conflict is no longer about the issues that that were used to justify it, and they should not be allowed to get in the way of a negotiated solution. It is now about Hormuz, which has become a long-term problem that will take allied help to manage once a ceasefire is reached. It’s already clear that there are plenty of countries willing to do so, despite Trump’s insults, but that can only happen once a deal is reached. Nobody can foretell the future. A less ideological, more rational Iranian leadership could yet emerge from the messy aftermath of a confrontation that was caused in large part by its own miscalculations and misdeeds. The IRGC will declare victory just because it survived, but will emerge damaged. So will Trump, both domestically and internationally, and hence the profanities. Mistakes in war have consequences. – Bloomberg

Michael Jacobson writes: Although the outcome of the Iran war is still uncertain, the hardline IRGC will likely maintain major influence over the government, so supporting proxies will presumably remain a regime priority for the foreseeable future. As negotiations continue, U.S. officials should therefore give careful attention to what a “proxies agreement” would encompass, what steps Washington could take to successfully implement such a deal, and—perhaps most important—what the United States and its partners would do if Tehran decides to violate whatever terms are reached. – Washington Institute

Mamuka Tsereteli writes: The South Caucasus is entering a new phase of infrastructure-driven geopolitics. As the conflict in Iran reshapes regional dynamics, the region’s importance continues to grow. A comprehensive Black Sea-Caspian transit framework could solidify the South Caucasus as a key corridor linking Central Asia and Europe while rebalancing geopolitical influence. The United States can help shape the architecture of the transregional corridor. TRIPP, if approached with sufficient scope and commitment, offers an opportunity to build a strategic corridor serving the interests of the United States and its core allies. – National Interest

Ahmed Charai writes: The United States has already shattered the myth that Tehran is untouchable. Now the job is to ensure that Iran does not survive this war as a more serious threat in an altered form. The regime must not be allowed to emerge from this confrontation claiming endurance as triumph. And once the opening is created, the Iranian people must be given their chance to decide the future of their nation. That is how this war should end: not with another illusion, not with another pause, and not with a regime of terror left standing to threaten the region again—but with a historic opening for a different Iran, and a different Middle East. – National Interest

Lebanon

An Israeli strike on an apartment east of Beirut late on Sunday killed a ‌local official from a Christian political party, sharpening internal divides over Hezbollah as Israel’s strikes expand to new parts of the country. – Reuters

The Lebanese Shi’a party Amal is positioning itself as a replacement for Hezbollah and coordinating with the terrorist organization to benefit from the reputation it would gain as part of the resistance, experts told The Jerusalem Post on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Over the past week, IDF soldiers of the 98th Division have expanded their targeted ground operations to additional targets in southern Lebanon, alongside the ongoing activities of the 91st, 36th, and 146th Divisions. – Arutz Sheva

IDF troops from the 91st Division operating over the last few weeks in southern Lebanon identified Hezbollah anti-tank terrorists who had positioned themselves inside a mosque in the area. – Arutz Sheva

IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin addressed the fighting in Lebanon this evening (Monday) and said that the goal is to weaken Hezbollah and stop the attacks toward Israel. – Arutz Sheva

Middle East & North Africa

Shelly Kittleson, the American journalist who was kidnapped last week in Baghdad, is believed to be alive and held by a local paramilitary group with ties to Iran, Iraqi security officials told The Washington Post on Monday. – Washington Post

Iraq could restore crude oil exports to around 3.4 ​million barrels per day within a week provided the Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the head of the ‌country’s state-run Basra Oil Company said. – Reuters

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure and the resulting surge in global oil prices have handed financial windfalls to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia, while other states that lack alternative shipment routes have lost billions of dollars, a Reuters analysis found. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Monday said ​that the Iran war was escalating in ‌both geography and economic impact, and that the whole Middle East region was “on fire” due to ​the U.S. and Israeli attacks on ​the Islamic Republic. – Reuters

The Iran war has prompted dozens of companies with operations in the Gulf to consider moving some business to Istanbul’s newly emerging, state-backed financial center, its chief executive said in an ​interview. – Reuters

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune set July 2 for parliamentary elections, after the OPEC member made constitutional changes that increased some of his powers. – Bloomberg

The decision by the Houthis to attack Israel was made independently, and “not at any request from anyone,” a senior Yemeni official told CNN on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

China

In the first Trump administration, the U.S. launched a “maximum pressure” campaign to cut Iranian oil from the global market and eliminate Tehran’s biggest source of revenue. Today, Iran sells billions of dollars worth of oil every month. – Wall Street Journal

China dominates renewable energy supply chains, producing a vast majority of the world’s solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles. Exports of these technologies were already climbing to new heights in the first two months of 2026. Now volatility in the supply of fossil fuels is set to give sales another big boost. – Washington Post

Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun left for China ​on Tuesday for a “peace” mission and a potential meeting with President Xi Jinping, as a senior Taiwanese minister ‌detailed the number of Chinese warships currently deployed around the island. – Reuters

China is targeting Taiwan to obtain its advanced chip manufacturing ​technology and talent as a way of breaking through international “containment” of the country, according ‌to a report from the island’s top security agency. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for accelerated planning ‌and construction of a new energy system to safeguard the country’s energy security, weeks into the Iran war that has triggered global energy shocks. – Reuters

Karishma Vaswani writes: Public opinion remains a critical battleground. Recent polls suggest most Taiwanese view the KMT as a “pro-China” party that values the mainland more than Taiwan. Reinforcing Cheng’s trip as a betrayal of the island’s interests would be a smart strategy. When Trump arrives in Beijing next month, he may still be consumed by the war in Iran, and there is a real risk that Taiwan becomes a secondary concern. That plays directly into Xi’s agenda and leaves Taipei dangerously exposed — once again. – Bloomberg

Europe

After 16 years in power, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary is struggling to maintain his footing as his governing Fidesz party trails badly in most polls. Now, Vice President JD Vance is attempting  a last-ditch rescue effort to revive the flagging prospects of Europe’s nationalist standard-bearer. – New York Times

Spain’s ruling Socialist ​Party has gained voter support amid Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s staunch opposition ‌to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, while far-right Vox, which supports the offensive, has seen a decline, two surveys published on Monday showed. – Reuters

As Hungary heads towards a pivotal election, voters who came of age under Prime Minister Viktor ​Orban have emerged as a key group driving support for the opposition, with some saying they will leave the country if the veteran leader is ‌re-elected. – Reuters

President Donald Trump revisited his grievances with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization over Greenland as he expressed fresh frustration with the security alliance’s stance on the Iran war. – Bloomberg

Germany is scrambling to clarify a controversial rule requiring that men aged 17 to 45 seek permission before leaving the country for more than three months, after the measure triggered a political backlash over the weekend. – Politico

Security has always been a main reason Moldova wanted to join the European Union. Now, the country is arguing that it can make the EU safer too. – Politico

Serbia’s top military brass said Ukraine was not behind an incident involving explosives near a gas pipeline with Hungary, in a rebuke to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who heavily implied Kyiv was involved. – Politico

U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb power plants and bridges across Iran if it does not reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz would be a war crime, one of the EU’s top leaders cautioned on Monday, hours before Washington’s deadline expires. – Politico

Fire Point, maker of Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile, is in talks with European companies to launch a new air defense system by next year, a senior executive told Reuters, creating a low-cost alternative to the increasingly hard-to-get Patriot system. – Defense News

Johan Norberg writes: Despite receiving more E.U. funds per capita than almost any other country, Hungary’s economic growth rate has been slightly below several regional peers. Spending as much as 5.5 percent of gross domestic product on family support produced only a temporary uptick in the fertility rate to 1.61 births per woman in 2021, before falling to an estimated 1.31 in 2025, far below the 2.1 required to maintain a stable population. Religious affiliation has declined during Orban’s tenure, too, suggesting that politicizing religion through subsidies and legal privileges for favored denominations actually hurts religious adherence. After 16 years as a laboratory for post-liberal nationalism, the result in Hungary is clear: Sweeping aside institutional constraints on government in pursuit of grand visions of the common good unshackles the smallest, most sordid ambitions of rent-seeking and corruption. As the scriptures Orban is so fond of quoting say: “Every tree is known by its own fruit.” – Washington Post

The Americas

One of the world’s biggest chemical companies aims to strike a new blow against hard-to-kill weeds that can cost farmers billions of dollars. Pesticide maker Syngenta said it would begin selling in South America this year a new weedkiller capable of eradicating grass weeds that have evolved to resist other common crop sprays, and threaten soybean and cotton crops. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuela’s government and its political ‌opposition are seeking to coordinate their legal defense of the oil-rich country’s United States assets, after Washington’s official recognition of interim President Delcy Rodriguez raised questions about who could represent the country in ​U.S. courts. – Reuters

Two Democrats from the U.S. House of Representatives visited Cuba last week, the first such delegation to go to the island this year since U.S. president Donald Trump imposed a de facto oil blockade in a bid to bring Cuba’s communist-run government ​to its knees. – Reuters

Surging energy prices could scupper a popular Brazilian program that provides free cooking ‌gas to around 50 million people, fuel distributors, resellers and analysts warned, six months ahead of a presidential election. – Reuters

Brazilian airline Azul said ‌on Monday that Chief Financial Officer Alex ​Malfitani will step ​down on April 20, with Embraer’s ⁠Antonio Carlos Garcia set ​to assume the role. – Reuters

As a new multinational force musters in Haiti, its foreign police and soldiers could soon find themselves face-to-face with hundreds of children. Children make up about 50% of armed groups in the country, experts estimate. In 2024 alone, at least 302 children were “recruited and used” by gangs across the capital, Port-au-Prince, according to the latest UN secretary general’s report on children and armed conflict. – CNN

Cybersecurity

Anthropic said late last year that state-sponsored Chinese hackers had used its artificial intelligence technology in an effort to infiltrate the computer systems of roughly 30 companies and government agencies around the world. – New York Times 

Government agencies in the U.S. and Singapore released urgent notices warning that a bug impacting a Fortinet tool is being exploited in attacks following a disclosure by cybersecurity researchers. – The Record

A major outage disrupted banking apps and payment systems across Russia last week, preventing customers in several regions, including Moscow, from paying by card, withdrawing cash or accessing mobile banking services for several hours. – The Record

Cyber-enabled fraud accounted for the overwhelming majority of all losses reported to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) in 2025, with a staggering $17.6 billion stolen. – The Record