Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The Biden administration pledged Tuesday to commit an additional $2.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine, saying it will provide air defense systems that include gun trucks and laser-guided weapons to counter Russia’s relentless use of drones. – Washington Post

This is one of the signature forms of combat around Bakhmut and other fiercely contested cities and towns in eastern Ukraine — bombardment, by both sides, directed by aerial drones. While troops in central Bakhmut battle at quarters close enough to hear their enemies shout and see them bleed, on the city’s periphery, the ripping apart of living human beings is a more remote affair, often witnessed on a soundless video feed. – New York Times

Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko will travel to Moscow on Wednesday for two days of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin said. – Reuters

Britain has blocked the U.N. webcast of an informal Security Council meeting on Ukraine on Wednesday at which Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights – whom the International Criminal Court wants to arrest on war crimes charges – is due to speak. – Reuters

Russian dissidents are carrying out “explosions and assassinations” in defiance of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, according to a top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Washington Examiner 

Editorial: The journalist’s arrest in Russia comes as free press is being squeezed around the world. An annual prison census from the Committee to Protect Journalists, an American advocacy group that promotes press freedom and safety, finds that over 360 reporters were jailed last year, a record high. His case highlights the vital work journalists do in an increasingly hostile world for reporters, as some even in liberal democracies tend to forget. – Financial Times

Bret Stephens writes: As for Gershkovich, the most fitting tribute we can pay him is to continue to report the truth about Russia, despite the risks. Putin has sought to wage a disinformation campaign in the West for decades. Western news organizations can repay his abuses with an information campaign about Russia, in Russian, for Russians. They, too, deserve to have the benefit of facts Putin wants nobody — including even himself — to know. – New York Times

Janan Ganesh writes: An issue, I think, is that some in Washington, not just on the right, had always hoped to peel Russia away from China. There are cold war memories of sowing discord between the two. But if they fall out, it is unlikely to be through outside instigation. The Sino-Soviet split began more than a decade before Richard Nixon visited China. – Financial Times

Tom Rogan writes: The timing of this flight coincides with Finland joining NATO as its 31st member. Under outgoing Prime Minister Sanna Marin, Finland has been a highly reliable U.S. ally. Equally important, Finland’s very long land border with Russia is defended by a well-trained and combat-ready military. That military will soon benefit from defense spending greater than NATO’s 2%-of-GDP target. As an example of how Finland supports NATO interests, its fighter jets could have flown separately or alongside Norwegian jets to escort the RC-135 during this flight. That threat bears note, considering Russia’s recent downing of a U.S. drone over the Black Sea. – Washington Examiner

Joseph Bosco writes: If Hitler and Mussolini — and Putin — had known the fate that awaited them, they might well have tamed their aggressive urges. Xi still has time to learn that lesson, if a resolute West is prepared to teach it. – The Hill

Sofie Lilli Stoffel and Vladyslav Wallace write: For a peace settlement to be feasible, the children’s issue must be incorporated at the forefront of negotiations. Criminal accountability and the swift return of all Ukrainian children should be set as prerequisites for returning to the negotiation table. Without properly addressing Russia’s abduction of children, the chances of a sustainable peace agreement are likely to be diminished by the partial success of Russia’s genocidal tactics and ensuing opposition from the Ukrainian people and civil society. – The National Interest

Austin Wright writes: In contrast, Russia’s current attitude toward New START and Putin’s recent announcement that Russia will station nonstrategic nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil, show Putin is searching for any distraction from his embarrassing failures in Ukraine—and any leverage he can get over a far more powerful West. While Russia takes a hatchet to the nuclear treaties that have made us all safer, the West continues to explore different avenues of cooperation. With his actions, Putin has made it clear that Russia can no longer be considered a superpower. – Foreign Policy

Natalia Antonova writes: Of course, journalists still need to report on what is happening in Russia. But the danger now has become immense. There are no easy answers or platitudes I can offer here. There is just the cold, hard reality of a violent, fascist regime that despises Americans and will use them in its endless tit-for-tat games as much as it is able. – Foreign Policy

Anna Nemtsova writes: Since Evan’s detention, I have been thinking of the famous words of the Soviet dissident poet Anna Akhmatova about the arrest in 1963 of a talented young poet named Joseph Brodsky: “What a biography they are fashioning for our red-haired friend!” she said of Brodsky’s KGB interrogators, meaning that they would make him famous. Today, I hope for the early release of my friend, however it can be achieved. I trust that the U.S. State Department and Gershkovich’s employer are doing their utmost. And I hope that one day soon, it will be the FSB agents who have reason to be losing sleep. – The Atlantic

Jeff Jager writes: The current paradigm of arming Ukraine is both unsustainable and undermines the longer-term objective of ensuring Ukraine can generate the combat power necessary to emerge victorious. Ukraine’s partners should start the transition to a focus on the longer-term objective as soon as possible. – Middle East Institute

Afghanistan

The Taliban has further tightened restrictions on Afghan women by banning them from working for the United Nations, putting at risk the agency’s multibillion-dollar aid program in Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal 

An overnight raid by Taliban forces in Afghanistan’s northern Balkh province killed six members of the extremist Islamic State group, a Taliban spokesman said Tuesday. – Associated Press

The United Nations mission in Afghanistan will hold talks Wednesday with Taliban officials in Kabul “to seek clarity” on a new government ban that blocks women from working for the world body across the country. – Agence France-Presse

The United Nations told some 3,300 Afghan staff not to come to work in Afghanistan for the next two days after the Taliban authorities signaled on Tuesday that they would enforce a ban on Afghan women working for the world body. – Reuters

Gulf States

The top envoys for Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet in Beijing on Thursday, an Iranian official and a Saudi-owned newspaper said, as the two regional rivals work to hash out next steps of their diplomatic rapprochement amid a China-brokered deal. – Reuters

Iran said on Tuesday it had appointed an ambassador to the United Arab Emirates for the first time since 2016, amid a realignment of relations between Gulf states and Iran. – Reuters

United Arab Emirates’ president Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan confirmed the Gulf state’s commitment to relations with Israel in a call with prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that discussed strengthening ties, UAE state media said on Tuesday. – Reuters

David Ignatius writes: The United States coddled a vulnerable Saudi Arabia for more than half a century because we needed its oil. Now, increasingly, we don’t. What we want is a Saudi Arabia that behaves like a responsible partner, even as it inevitably puts Saudi interests first. – Washington Post

China

In an hourlong interview ahead of a European diplomatic mission to Beijing, China’s ambassador to the European Union said that critics had misinterpreted his country’s relationship with Russia, and suggested their ties may not be as limitless as their leaders once declared. – New York Times

Furious at U.S. efforts that cut off access to technology to make advanced computer chips, China’s leaders appear to be struggling to figure out how to retaliate without hurting their own ambitions in telecoms, artificial intelligence and other industries. – Associated Press

European Union executive head Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are to land in China on Wednesday seeking to “reset” ties with an important economic partner while broaching thorny issues like Ukraine and trade risks. – Reuters

China is for the first time keeping at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea, according to a Pentagon report – adding pressure on the United States and its allies as they try to counter Beijing’s growing military. – Reuters

Even as the U.S. Navy expands its drone experiments, its top leaders say the fleet has much to learn before deploying unmanned systems to defend Taiwan from possible attack in the next few years. But they said that lessons from South America’s seas will help the Navy to refine and build intelligence-gathering and -sensing missions that will be highly relevant to countering China. – Defense One

Euan Graham writes: Australia has provided an imperfect but nevertheless useful exemplar of how governments can respond effectively to China’s multifarious security challenges. However, the Australian case also suggests that a coherent response to China’s security challenges at the international level must be based on firm foundations for addressing domestic vulnerabilities. – Breaking Defense

Jo Inge Bekkevold writes: But even though its peace initiative will do little to end the Russo-Ukrainian war, Beijing had nothing to lose by forwarding a rather vague proposal on Ukraine. On the contrary, it enables Beijing to tap into the disconnect between the West and the global south about the war. And if the proposal also helps China to improve its deteriorating relationship with Europe, including by engaging with postwar Ukraine, that would be no small achievement at all. – Foreign Policy

Asia

Taiwan defied threats of retaliation by China ahead of an expected meeting between the island’s president and the U.S. House speaker Wednesday that will underscore her government’s claim to sovereignty. – Associated Press

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met with senior security officials on Tuesday to discuss the “regional situation” ahead of her meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, which China has demanded not take place. – Reuters

Malaysia secured 2.44 billion ringgit ($555.30 million) in potential exports during Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s visit to China last week, a government trade agency said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Japan on Tuesday rejected an allegation that the sanctions it has imposed on Russian private lender Sovcombank are illegal, and said Russia’s aggression against Ukraine should have a significant cost. – Reuters

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday he would accept an invitation to visit China but has yet to receive one, in a response to speculation that planning for a visit to Beijing was well advanced. – Reuters

Editorial: Unfortunately, regional diplomacy has all but failed to restrain the junta. Facing sanctions from the United States and other nations, it has turned to China and Russia for support. The violence and misery are ever more savage. The people of Myanmar are paying a terrible price. But democracy as an ideal cannot be murdered, nor can the people’s hopes for it be extinguished by force. – Washington Post

Kathrin Hille writes: “They will put us on a fast track to unification,” he says. “If the KMT wins, that will be done with carrots, to encourage us to start political negotiations, but if the DPP wins, it will be done with an even heavier use of the military to threaten Taiwan.” Either way, Taiwan knows it cannot escape the shadow of its imposing neighbour. – Financial Times

Africa

Somalia’s president has expressed confidence that his new military offensive against al-Shabaab will “defeat” the al-Qaeda-linked Islamist group that has long terrorised the Horn of Africa. – Financial Times

Nigeria’s Senate has approved China Development Bank as new financier for the country’s Kaduna-to-Kano rail project at a cost of $973 million, after another Chinese lender withdrew from the project in 2020, lawmakers said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it has reached a staff-level agreement with Rwanda on policies needed to complete the first reviews of Rwanda’s $319 million loan arrangement under the IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Facility. – Reuters

United States

Joseph Bosco writes: The sooner Washington scraps its counter-productive vagueness on defending Taiwan and incorporates Biden’s impromptu pledges as formal declared policy, the sooner the scale of deterrence will tip in Taiwan’s — and the world’s — favor. – The Hill

Brahma Chellaney writes: If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken the foundations of the international order, as many in the West believe, a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would usher in a new global order by ending America’s global preeminence and undermining the U.S.-led alliance system. It would change the trajectory of the 21st century in the way that World War I transformed the 20th. – The Hill

Tim Sweijs and Michael J. Mazarr write: The United States may be rushing into an overly narrow conception of geopolitics, obsessed with China and (to a lesser degree) Russia, treating a vital set of middle powers as necessary adjuncts to those rivalries rather than as strategic actors in their own right. The emerging system is likely to end up not so much as two great magnets pulling the world into a binary system, but rather as one with multiple great-power gravitational centers operating amid an increasingly influential, self-confident, and independent set of middle powers. Such a world will be governed by a different dominant-system dynamic than that of the Cold War. – War on the Rocks

Defense

The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps are nearing agreement on the requirements and cost of the Landing Ship Medium program, formerly called the Light Amphibious Warship, after the services previously diverged in their visions for this program, officials said. – Defense News

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program could have its first, limited, five-year performance-based logistics contract by the end of the year. – Defense News

The U.S. Navy will expand its work with unmanned and artificial intelligence tools into U.S. 4th Fleet, following the success of Task Force 59 in the Middle East. – Defense News

The U.S Army plans to spend roughly the next two years finalizing key decisions on what its future formational design will look like in the 2040s, the service’s four-star general in charge of modernization and requirements said at the Association of the U.S. Army’s Global Force Symposium last week. – Defense News

Gordon G. Chang writes: Even in the absence of a war in East Asia, the U.S. Navy is already stretched thin. Unfortunately, the Navy cannot just unilaterally reduce its missions to fit diminished capabilities. The world is becoming ever more complex and dangerous, and the only answer, as Fanell argues, is to build more ships and build them faster than the Biden administration and Congress are now contemplating. – Newsweek