Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
JPost Editorial: Qatar’s alleged influence over ICC prosecutor raises concerns about legal neutrality Trump tells aides to prepare for extended blockade of Iran Treasury Dept. issues more sanctions on Iranian oil exports US condemns Iran’s leadership role at UN nuclear conference as ‘beyond shameful’ Hague Institute for Geopolitics’s Damon Gloriz: Will Israel continue the war with Iran, if the US preserves the ceasefire? Ukraine in diplomatic tussle with Israel over grain Kyiv says 'stolen' by Russia Turkey offering to broker agreement between US, Lebanon on Hezbollah, sources tell 'Post' U.A.E.’s OPEC exit deals major blow to cartel amid Middle East oil squeeze North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is outgrowing US missile defenses Britain summons Iran’s ambassador over message to Iranians in U.K. US Senate blocks bid to prevent Trump from military action against Cuba New State Department rules would deny visas to those who fear returning homeIn The News
Israel
A Defense Ministry civilian contractor was killed and another was wounded by a Hezbollah drone in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, the military announced, as the Iran-backed terror group continued to target northern Israel and Israeli forces in Lebanese territory. – Times of Israel
Kiryat Shmona Mayor Avichai Stern on Tuesday accused the government of selling out the north’s security after he and heads of neighboring towns announced protested moves against the US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon. – Times of Israel
Two IDF soldiers were wounded in the West Bank village of Silwad during overnight military operations, the military announced on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) issued a Tuesday statement claiming that Israel is using “water as a weapon of collective punishment against Palestinians in Gaza.” – Jerusalem Post
A debate is raging over whether Israel sending Arrow air defense missiles to Germany during the Iran war, while Israel was being showered with ballistic missiles, had cost civilian lives. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF and ISA on Tuesday carried out a strike in the northern Gaza Strip, eliminating the terrorist Iyad Ahmed Abd al-Rahman Shambari, Head of the Operations Department in Hamas’ Military Intelligence Headquarters. – Arutz Sheva
Israel is increasing pressure on the mediators and the Lebanese government. Sources in Jerusalem are clarifying that the time remaining until mid-May – the date to which the ceasefire has been extended – is the “last window of opportunity” to reach a political agreement. – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: The battle for the future of Israel is being fought as much in the chambers of the Hague as it is on the front lines. The world must choose whether it wants a functioning system of international law or a system that serves as a weapon for those who host and fund terrorism. Israel has already made its choice, and Israel will not be a pawn in a Qatari intelligence operation. It is time for the rest of the world to catch up. – Jerusalem Post
Elie Podeh and Yogev Elbaz write: Military achievements and unexpected developments have created opportunities vis-à-vis Syria and Lebanon. Timing is crucial: the internal weakness of both countries increases the chances for a settlement, whereas the passage of time may allow opposing forces to regroup and thwart the process. To seize these opportunities, Israel must undertake bold and creative diplomatic initiatives. Only sustained dialogue and a credible mediator can bring them to fruition. – Jerusalem Post
Carice Witte writes: The ceasefire showed that China operates by shaping the environment in which Tehran acts. For Israel, that should catalyze the building of a strategy based on a clear-eyed understanding of how Beijing wields influence. Such a strategy can strengthen Israel’s position, sharpen its regional logic, and improve its ability to maintain effective relations with China in the context of great-power competition. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran’s economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused. – Wall Street Journal
The Trump administration on Tuesday ratcheted up economic pressure on Iran, warning financial institutions not to allow independent Chinese refineries to buy Iranian oil and cracking down on Iran’s “shadow” banking sector. – New York Times
Two months into a war with the U.S. and Israel, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power — an abrupt break with the past that may be hardening Tehran’s stance as it weighs renewed talks with Washington. – Reuters
U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that has killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter said. – Reuters
The United States, joined by the United Arab Emirates and backed by concerns from key European powers, sharply condemned the United Nations’ decision Monday to grant Iran a leadership post at a major nuclear treaty conference. – Fox News
Iran wants international support to toll the Strait of Hormuz, but Gulf nations were siding with the US against the plan Tuesday as they met to coordinate a response to the crisis. – New York Post
The latest stutter steps to plague US-Iran talks — marked by cancellations and missed meetings in Pakistan — have sharpened a central question hanging over the high-stakes negotiation: Is this a temporary breakdown, or evidence that the two sides are not negotiating at the same table at all? – Times of Israel
Damon Gloriz writes: There is another scenario: Washington enforces a naval blockade whilst, through division of labour, allowing Israel to light the fuse – then steps back to limit regional fallout. Tehran would reject such outsourcing and widen the war across the region. Iran seeks a central role in shaping Western Asia’s future security architecture, if not beyond […] Stability now requires recognising Iran as an enduring geopolitical actor. This shift compels a reassessment of maritime chokepoints, from Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb to the Strait of Malacca, in a more contested global order. For now, whoever controls Hormuz, meaning Goddess in Persian, exercises a near divine leverage over the years ahead. – Jerusalem Post
Danny Citrinowicz writes: But perhaps the war’s grimmest outcome is that it stifled a potential internal transformation. Regime change strategies often fail not because regimes are inherently strong but because they are adaptable. In Iran’s case, external pressure did not fracture the system; it reinforced the position of its most hard-line figures. The result is an Iran that is less predictable, less restrained, and probably more dangerous. – Foreign Affairs
Brian Katulis writes: But since then, Trump has both said he is keen on reaching a deal with Tehran, while also sending additional military firepower to the region, including a third aircraft carrier group, which is currently parked in waters near Iran. At the moment, it appears Trump is more interested in diplomatic—rather than military—engagement, but given his mercurial unpredictability, it remains to be seen which way the pendulum will ultimately swing. But should he opt for diplomacy, there’s one crucial variable missing: steady US engagement with its Arab partners, particularly in the Gulf, on what the strategic endgame with Iran looks like. – Middle East Institute
Russia and Ukraine
President Vladimir V. Putin and his security services kept a lid on public dissent even as he invaded a neighboring country, sent hundreds of thousands of soldiers to their deaths and drastically raised taxes to pay for it all. – New York Times
In a foggy field in northeast Ukraine, four soldiers stare at red and yellow dots on a screen in the back of a van, armed with interceptor drones and energy drinks to get through the night. These pilots, and about a thousand other crews like them, are on the frontlines of Ukraine’s drive to knock one of Russia’s most potent weapons out of the war: the Shahed drone. – Reuters
The acting U.S. ambassador to Kyiv Julie Davis will step down from her post and retire, a U.S. official and the State Department said on Tuesday, amid a lull in U.S.-brokered talks to achieve a ceasefire and end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has leveraged Ukraine’s expertise in drone warfare into a series of successful diplomatic deals during visits to the Middle East and Europe, showcasing how Kyiv is using military prowess to boost its diplomatic clout. – Reuters
Russia will mark victory over Nazi Germany next month with a military parade on Moscow’s Red Square, but with no military equipment displayed in view of the operational situation in the war in Ukraine, the Defence Ministry said late on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukraine is rolling out a new line of defence to protect businesses and critical infrastructure from hundreds of Russian drones darkening its skies night after night: private air defence companies. – Reuters
Russia has attacked port infrastructure in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region with drones in overnight strikes that also damaged residential buildings and a hospital and left two people wounded, Ukrainian officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Ukraine and Israel traded diplomatic blows on Tuesday as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy condemned what he said were grain purchases from occupied Ukrainian territory “stolen” by Russia and threatened sanctions against those attempting to profit from it. – Reuters
Amid a growing diplomatic incident, Israel said Tuesday it had yet to receive evidence that a shipment of Russian grain had been “stolen” from occupied Ukrainian territory, while Kyiv said it was preparing sanctions against those involved in the transaction. – Times of Israel
David Ignatius writes: The Kyiv forum showed that Ukraine’s remarkable defense innovation is nurtured by constant interaction between soldiers at the front and agile defense-tech companies. This feedback loop was explained by Oleksandr Yakovenko, founder of a drone-maker called TAF Industries. He said he had returned from the eastern front the previous day and would soon visit his plant to retool. This innovation ecosystem is badly needed in Europe, Yakovenko argued: “European companies will take two years to solve a problem. We can do it in a month.” This same “learn from Ukraine” theme was expressed by Col. Mykyta Nadtochii. He told Europeans who are pledging support: “You’re not just doing this for Ukraine; you’re doing it for yourselves.” – Washington Post
Samuel Bendett and Michael Kofman write: While the impact of the People’s VPK remains difficult to measure, the Russo-Ukrainian War demonstrates that policymakers continue to underestimate the importance of informal assistance efforts and bottom-up innovation. The United States has long been looking at how Ukraine’s defense industry turned into an ecosystem of defense tech startups. It is also worth examining how adversaries approached the same problems. Even if the People’s VPK ends up being consumed by the system at home, some of these individuals and startups may seek to export their wares elsewhere to adversaries like Iran and non-state actors abroad. – War on the Rocks
Turkey
Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party issued one of its strongest criticisms yet of the government’s handling of a fragile peace process, highlighting on Tuesday a growing stand-off between Ankara and Kurdish militants over next steps to end a decades-long conflict. – Reuters
Turkey has approached the United States and Lebanon with a proposal to help broker an arrangement involving Hezbollah, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
Mem Husedin writes: Redrawing the map to create Israel was a fantasy when Herzl first put pen to paper. The task now is to reshape the region along natural borders, ones that can sustain real peace. For Israel, that begins with demanding that the fragmented actors of a potential Kurdish ally build the unified foundation a state requires. Israel should say so openly. Doing so would give Kurdish nationalists the external validation they need to rise above the prison politics of capitals whose sovereignty is, in any meaningful sense, already forfeit. – Jerusalem Post
Lebanon
Lebanese authorities have launched an investigation after a student contacted IDF Arabic Spokesman Col. (res.) Avichay Adraee, asking that the IDF target her school, according to the military official and a statement issued by the Choueifat National College. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF on Tuesday struck a number of Hezbollah infrastructure sites in several areas in southern Lebanon, north of the Forward Defense Line. – Arutz Sheva
Mostafa Geha writes: Peace between Lebanon and Israel requires vision rather than reaction and responsibility rather than rhetoric. Preventing the next war is not weakness. It is judgment. History shows that cooperation in this region is possible, and that those who shape public thought, particularly intellectuals and opinion makers on both sides, carry a special responsibility in turning that possibility into reality. At the most basic level, peace begins not only with declarations, but with people willing to shake hands, recognize one another’s humanity, and choose to build a better future together. Our task now is to ensure that future generations do not learn that lesson only after another round of destruction. – Ynet
Gulf States
The United Arab Emirates said it would leave OPEC, dealing a heavy blow to the oil cartel as the war in Iran scrambles alliances and investment priorities among the world’s top oil producers. – Wall Street Journal
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chaired a consultative meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah on Tuesday, state media said, the first in-person meeting of Gulf leaders since their states became a front in the Iran war two months ago. – Reuters
For about eight weeks, Indian Capt. Rahul Dhar and his crew have been stranded on their tanker in the Persian Gulf, sometimes watching drones and missiles explode as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut while the Iran war dragged on. – Associated Press
Editorial: Even once the Strait reopens, it will take time for countries to ramp up production, and the world will need all of the spare capacity the U.A.E. can bring. By breaking up with OPEC, Abu Dhabi is also strengthening its ties with the U.S. Critics say the Iran war has reduced U.S. influence in the region, but the behavior of the Gulf Arab states suggests otherwise. If the U.A.E. exit is a portent, the OPEC cartel may eventually break up on its own under the weight of competition. – Wall Street Journal
Middle East & North Africa
Damascus on Sunday opened the public trial of a senior security official from Syria’s former regime, in what is widely seen as the beginning of a transitional justice process after years of conflict. – Jerusalem Post
Iraqi security forces opened fire at a drone flying over Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, security sources said on Tuesday, adding that it was likely being used for surveillance. The drone managed to escape after coming under fire, the sources said, with no immediate reports of damage or casualties. – Reuters
Libya’s Tripoli Criminal Court on Tuesday convicted four members of “a criminal gang” involved in human trafficking, abductions for ransom and torture, with sentences up to 22 years, the attorney general’s office said on its Facebook page. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has praised soldiers who committed suicide while fighting against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, confirming an extreme battle policy. – Reuters
South Korea’s former First Lady Kim Keon Hee was sentenced on Tuesday to four years in prison for stock manipulation and bribery, after an appeals court increased her earlier sentence. – Reuters
A South Korean appeals court on Wednesday increased the jail term for former President Yoon Suk Yeol on charges linked to his short-lived 2024 martial law declaration to seven years following appeals by Yoon and the prosecution. – Reuters
From January 2020 to the end of 2024, at least 153 people were executed or sentenced to death – a sharp increase from 44 people in the five years before the pandemic, according to a report by the Transitional Justice Working Group (TJWG). – BBC
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is nearing a crucial tipping point: being big enough to possibly overwhelm the ground-based missile defenses the US spent billions developing over the last 30 years. – Bloomberg
China
For the past several years, millions of disenchanted young people in China have embraced a mindset dubbed “lying flat.” In an economy with limited well-paying jobs, many have rejected societal pressures to overwork or have stopped working completely. – Wall Street Journal
Taiwan’s economy will see unprecedented opportunities should it agree to union with China, Beijing said on Wednesday as it continues to try to persuade Taipei to accept its rule, which President Lai Ching-te’s government has repeatedly rejected. – Reuters
The United States has set specific conditions for the release of billions of dollars it owes to the United Nations, such as more cost-cutting and moves to counter China’s influence at the world body, a development news agency reported on Tuesday. – Reuters
Eyck Freymann writes: They must convince him that a Taiwan crisis would not be just militarily costly but also politically isolating, economically ruinous, and strategically futile, because the United States and its allies could use a crisis to restructure the regional and global order in ways that put national rejuvenation out of reach. The tools to do this exist; they simply need to be brought together under a single strategy. Xi has shown restraint during his 13 years in power. He can yet be deterred, as long as Washington keeps offering him reasons to be patient. The United States, its allies, and the people of Taiwan can sustain peace for another generation, but only if the allies start preparing for a crisis, not just a war. – Foreign Affairs
Christopher Nye writes: But a paralyzed machine is not a safe one. By eradicating the informal networks that paradoxically served as the military’s primary risk management mechanism, Xi has dismantled his own safety valves. With these circuit breakers removed and the high command populated by terrified loyalists, the threshold for strategic miscalculation has never been lower. – War on the Rocks
South Asia
The Sri Lankan men, all Buddhist monks, arrived on Saturday at Bandaranaike International Airport with school supplies and candy. But hidden within that cargo was nearly 247 pounds, of cannabis products, according to the local authorities, who called it one of the largest drug seizures ever at the airport. – New York Times
India has asked motorists to avoid panic buying and clarified that there was no proposal to raise pump prices for diesel and gasoline, a government official said on Tuesday. – Reuters
India has inducted a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and is in the final stages of sealing an $8 billion deal with Germany for six conventional submarines as it focuses on boosting its underwater capabilities with an eye on the prospect of greater presence of Chinese vessels in the Indian Ocean. – Defense News
Asia
Since oil prices surged in the wake of the U.S.-Iran war, Filipino vegetable farmer Bic Pagkaliwangan’s already thin earnings have shrunk by half. Diesel-powered farm machinery, he said, is 25% more expensive to hire. Transport costs to market have jumped. – Wall Street Journal
The Taiwanese minister in charge of the Coast Guard visited a second Taiwan-controlled islet deep in the South China Sea, she said on Wednesday, adding that complaints by Vietnam about her trip would not cause any regional tensions. – Reuters
The European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged partner countries in Southeast Asia on Tuesday not to turn to Russia for oil supplies as they try to cope with widespread fuel shortages caused by the Middle East conflict. – Reuters
Indonesian military prosecutors charged four officers on Wednesday for their alleged involvement in an acid attack on an activist known for campaigning against the expanding public role of the armed forces, seeking a maximum sentence of 12 years in prison. – Reuters
Italy’s parliament on Tuesday backed a government plan to donate an ageing aircraft carrier to Indonesia, a move the administration said would strengthen relations with an ally while avoiding the costly dismantling of an obsolete asset. – Reuters
The Philippines is not worried about any reduction in U.S. deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific due to the war in the Middle East, its defence secretary said on Tuesday, although he warned China could try and seize any perceived opening. – Reuters
Russian and People’s Liberation Army naval groups made separate transits over the past week through Japan’s southwest region to enter the East China Sea, according to officials from the island country. – USNI News
American missile systems were deployed last week to a remote Luzon Strait island 100 miles south of Taiwan as part of Washington and Manila’s Balikatan 2026 military drills. – USNI News
Paul Heer writes: The United States and Japan should do everything they can to enhance Taiwan’s security and to deter or prevent a Chinese attack. They should also do everything they can to protect Taiwan’s democracy and promote its involvement in global affairs. But they will not succeed in doing so by misrepresenting Beijing’s historical commitments and strategic intentions, or by obfuscating their own. Nor will they succeed if they continue to approach the Taiwan issue primarily as a military problem. Washington and Tokyo should instead confront the strategic dilemma over Taiwan that they played a central role in creating, and work diplomatically with Beijing and Taipei to find an off-ramp toward cross-Strait stability. – National Interest
Europe
King Charles III issued a veiled plea for President Trump not to turn his back on the trans-Atlantic alliance between the U.K. and its former colony during a rare address to Congress to mark 250 years of American independence. – Wall Street Journal
The British government said Tuesday that it had summoned the Iranian ambassador in response to what it called “unacceptable and inflammatory comments” posted by the Iranian Embassy on social media. – New York Times
When a ship comes under fire in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the first places its distress call is likely to be heard is thousands of miles away, on a military base outside Portsmouth, on the south coast of Britain. – New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump criticized German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the war in Iran on Tuesday, a day after Merz said the Iranians were humiliating the United States in talks to end it. – Reuters
Britain on Tuesday sought to uphold a ban on pro-Palestinian group Palestine Action, which it has designated a terrorist organisation, after a court ruling that the move unlawfully interfered with freedom of expression. – Reuters
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s decision last month to let the British military board ships of Russia’s so‑called “shadow fleet” has had no clear impact on the number passing through UK waters, a Reuters analysis shows. – Reuters
Britain’s King Charles told the U.S. Congress on Tuesday that despite an age of uncertainty and conflict in Europe and the Middle East, the UK and the U.S. will always be staunch allies united in defending democracy, at a time of deep divisions between the two long-time allies over the war with Iran. – Reuters
Northern Irish police arrested a man on Tuesday and stepped up patrols after the militant group New IRA claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack on a Belfast police station and warned it would target officers at their homes. – Reuters
U.S. special envoy John Coale said on Tuesday he expects to secure the release of additional prisoners from Belarus within the next month, adding that further sanctions relief for Minsk could be possible if that happens. – Reuters
Kosovo is set for another snap election after parliament failed to elect a new president on Tuesday, pitching Europe’s youngest nation back into the thick of a political crisis. – Reuters
The minority government of Romania’s pro-European Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan could fall in early May after his former coalition partner, the leftist Social Democrats, and the far-right opposition submitted a no-confidence motion on Tuesday. – Reuters
Sweden warned on Tuesday of a potential shortage of jet fuel stemming from the war in the Middle East, with the country’s energy minister telling travellers they needed to build some flexibility into their plans where possible. – Reuters
Switzerland’s lower house of parliament has rejected a proposal calling for the recognition of a Palestinian state, arguing that current conditions do not support such a move. – Arutz Sheva
Ilan Berman writes: That is deeply troubling, because NATO’s mission is arguably more important than ever. The collective defense it offers is critical backstop in an era of Russian revanchism, Chinese assertiveness and Iranian adventurism. Yet recent weeks have made clear that the alliance doesn’t just have a Turkey problem. It has a Spanish one as well, and the latter is likely to emerge as a real headache for U.S.-NATO relations when the dust from the current Iran conflict finally clears. – Newsweek
Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write: Europeans have a habit of declaring the transatlantic relationship dead. After more than a year of acrimony between Washington and its European partners, they are right that the alliance is much diminished. Having been reduced to the bare bones of interest, it has lost the veneer of friendship that many European leaders were pretending was still there after Trump’s reelection in 2024. Amid this estrangement, a renewed focus on shared interests and a retreat from ideology are in order. They may be just what the transatlantic relationship needs to survive. – Foreign Affairs
Azeem Ibrahim writes: The US-UK special relationship has endured for a reason. It rests on shared values, complementary strategic interests from the North Atlantic to the South Pacific, and mutual respect for the principle that free people get to decide their own future. President Trump has repeatedly shown he understands the value of strong alliances when they serve American interests. Standing by the United Kingdom on the Falklands is one of those moments. The Pentagon should shelve any review of the islands’ status, reaffirm the long-standing US position, and keep the focus where it belongs: on deterring real adversaries, not testing the loyalty of our closest friends. – National Interest
Africa
Senegal’s National Assembly overwhelmingly approved on Tuesday changes to the country’s electoral code, introducing provisions that could pave the way for Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko to run in the 2029 presidential election. – Reuters
The leader of Mali’s military government, Assimi Goita, on Tuesday made his first public appearance since insurgents launched coordinated attacks over the weekend, vowing in a televised address to “neutralize” those responsible. – Reuters
The United States said on Tuesday it is not funding any security units tasked with policing or guarding mines in Democratic Republic of Congo after Kinshasa announced plans to launch a paramilitary force to secure mining sites. – Reuters
Five million children across Sudan’s Darfur region are facing extreme deprivation, the United Nations children’s agency said on Tuesday, issuing an emergency warning over the situation as the civil war in the country enters its fourth year. – Reuters
The United Nations on Tuesday imposed sanctions on Algoney Hamdan Daglo Musa, younger brother of the head of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and three Colombian mercenaries accused of recruiting former Colombian personnel to fight in the country. – Reuters
The World Bank has told Uganda’s government that proposed legislation to regulate people and organisations that receive foreign funding will hinder its work in the country, according to a letter seen by Reuters. – Reuters
Ugandan authorities said Tuesday that they have detained dozens of foreigners in a crackdown on illegal migration that the internal affairs ministry suggested was linked to human traffickers and cyberscam operations. – Associated Press
The International Criminal Court on Tuesday ordered an al-Qaida-linked extremist leader to pay 7.2 million euros ($8.4 million) in reparations for atrocities he oversaw as head of the Islamic police in the desert city of Timbuktu in the West African country of Mali. – Associated Press
Displaced people who took refuge from conflict in an isolated South Sudan village were denied lifesaving aid by the government even as deaths there mounted, eyewitnesses and aid groups said. – Associated Press
African migrants in the South African capital, Pretoria, were urged to exercise “heightened vigilance” during an anti-illegal immigration march, amid fears of xenophobic attacks. – BBC
Trevor Filseth writes: Europe is shielded somewhat by the vastness of the Sahara; unlike the previous African migrant crisis stemming from Libya, located along the Mediterranean shore, would-be migrants into Europe would need to first pass through hundreds of miles of desert, as well as the existing nations there—none of which are known for their friendliness to migrants. Yet the scale of the problem is likely to dwarf the previous round of migration. There are a combined 75 million people in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, a population 10 times larger than Libya’s. Unfortunately, European leaders have few tools available to confront this issue—but would be wise at least to consider it before it arrives on their doorstep. – National Interest
The Americas
The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago released a joint statement in support of Panama’s sovereignty on Tuesday, saying recent actions by China are an attempt to politicize maritime trade and infringe on the sovereignty of nations in the hemisphere. – Reuters
Argentine President Javier Milei, a libertarian who has long cited former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as one of his political role models, has recently sharpened his public tone on the Falkland Islands, a contrast from the moderate approach he has previously adopted as he’s sought closer ties with the West. – Reuters
High-level talks to accelerate the shift from fossil fuels got underway Tuesday in Colombia’s Caribbean city of Santa Marta, where President Gustavo Petro warned the world could “reach a point of no return” without the Amazon’s role in regulating the climate. – Associated Press
A spate of attacks against civilians and military bases in Colombia’s southwestern region has raised security concerns as the country heads to a May presidential election in which crime is expected to be one of the top voter concerns. – Associated Press
North America
Four foreigners — not two — were on the ground during a counter-cartel operation last week in northern Mexico, where an automobile crash killed two men that were later confirmed to be Central Intelligence Agency officers, a Mexican state prosecutor said on Monday. – New York Times
The Republican-led U.S. Senate on Tuesday blocked a Democratic-led resolution that would have barred President Donald Trump from military action against Cuba without congressional approval. – Reuters
Cuba spent three months without a fuel shipment after the U.S. attacked Venezuela, a key supplier, and threatened tariffs on any country that sells or supplies oil to Cuba. – Associated Press
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday ruled out a conflict with the United States over an incident involving two CIA agents who died in an accident in the state of Chihuahua — agents who, according to Mexico, were not authorized to operate in the country. – Associated Press
United States
Business leaders, cabinet secretaries, Supreme Court justices and Trump family members were among the guests assembled at the White House on Tuesday evening to attend a state dinner for King Charles III and Queen Camilla, one of the most coveted invitations this year. The visit kicked off celebrations for America’s 250th birthday. – Wall Street Journal
The Trump administration on Tuesday issued new rules for visa applications that could limit asylum claims in the United States, ordering diplomatic missions to ask applicants for nonimmigrant visas if they fear returning home to their country — and to refuse U.S. travel documents for those who say yes, according to a cable reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post
The U.S. Army soldier charged with winning $400,000 by using confidential information to bet on the removal of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro pleaded not guilty to fraud charges on Tuesday. – Reuters
The Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday over the Trump administration’s push to end legal protections for migrants fleeing war and natural disaster, one in a series of immigration cases the high court is considering against the backdrop of the president’s far-reaching immigration crackdown. – Associated Press
The man who authorities say tried to storm the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner with guns and knives was charged Monday with the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump as federal authorities suggested an attack that disrupted one of Washington’s glitziest events had been planned for at least several weeks. – Associated Press
Cybersecurity
Australia has proposed taxing digital giants Meta, Google and TikTok a proportion of their revenue to pay for news reporters. – Associated Press
European Union legislators failed to agree on a rollback of the bloc’s artificial intelligence rules in negotiations overnight Tuesday, with rules for machinery and medical devices as the main sticking point. – Politico
Federal Chief Information Officer Greg Barbaccia said Tuesday the government is approaching Anthropic’s Mythos model with measured expectations, acknowledging both its potential to strengthen federal cyber defenses and the significant uncertainties that remain about how it would perform in real-world conditions. – Cyberscoop
Illinois Rep. Delia Ramirez is taking over as the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security panel’s cybersecurity subcommittee, replacing former Rep. Eric Swalwell after his resignation. – Cyberscoop
The Department of Labor aims to unveil its AI workforce hub in “the coming months,” an agency official said Tuesday, providing the public with “empirical evidence” — including never-before-shared private-sector data — on how the emerging technology is affecting the economy. – Cyberscoop
The head of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency on Tuesday predicted that foreign adversaries would attempt to interfere in the upcoming midterm elections. – The Record
Ukrainian law enforcement has detained a group of local hackers suspected of stealing more than 610,000 user accounts from the gaming platform Roblox and reselling them for cryptocurrency on Russian websites, authorities said. – The Record
Russell Wald and Sha Sajadieh write: None of this means the risks are small. Americans are right to want guardrails. In fact, the same AI Index data shows that across nearly every state, more people worry federal AI regulation will not go far enough than don’t. But striking the right balance on regulation requires a public that understands the stakes. And until more of the people shaping this debate — researchers, executives, policymakers — argue from the middle, the caricatures will keep winning by default. – Washington Post
Defense
The Pentagon has requested that Congress formally change the name of the Defense Department to the Department of War in a new legislative proposal, a move that is likely to rile Democrats as lawmakers begin hashing out the fiscal 2027 defense policy bill. – Breaking Defense
The Pentagon’s fiscal 2027 budget request seeks 85 F-35 Lightning II fighters across the joint force, up from 47 in fiscal 2026. – Defense News
As the Navy celebrates the first flight of its unmanned robot refueler, the service’s latest budget documents show the aircraft won’t be operational until at least 2029—another delay for the troubled program. – Defense One
The Navy issued HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding a $282.9 million contract award Tuesday to do lead yard work for the new frigate based on the Coast Guard’s National Security Cutter. – USNI News
Over the summer, troops with 2nd Marine Division will head to Twentynine Palms, California, to experience something entirely new to them: drone-defeat training from the service’s primary readiness unit. – Defensescoop
The Navy has launched a pilot project that uses artificial intelligence capabilities to recommend jobs for sailors, and the service is aiming to expand that effort to a larger pool of personnel, according to a senior official. – Defensescoop
The Navy’s new acting secretary, Hung Cao, urged industry officials to speed up the delivery of high-quality counter-drone systems and other AI-enabled military assets to protect and better equip sailors and Marines who are deployed overseas. – Defensescoop
John Lehman and Anand Toprani write: The U.S. isn’t in the position it was in the 1980s. Its relative power has decreased, the size and sophistication of its primary rival are greater, and the battlefield is more dangerous due to the proliferation of cheap weaponry that can defeat even expensive systems. To extract the greatest benefits from higher military spending, we need to remember why the Reagan buildup succeeded. We need civilian and military leadership to develop, fund and execute a strategy that can end this new cold war without bloodshed. Spending alone won’t be sufficient. – Wall Street Journal