Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel and Lebanon extend ceasefire for three weeks, Trump says Israel prepared to renew Iran war, awaiting 'green light' from Trump, Katz says An Iranian ship tried to slip past the blockade. A U.S. destroyer chased it down. Iran fast-boat swarms add to Hormuz threats for shipping Trump says US will not use nuclear weapon in Iran war Retired U.S. Army major Mike Lyons: The Iran war marks the end of ‘escalation management’ The Free Press’s Eli Lake: Why Trump’s Iran deal is not like Obama's Iran deal Blood diamonds, crypto: Hezbollah’s financial operations in Europe serve as major terror lifeline Chinese satellites over Mideast battlefield put U.S. on edge U.S. seeks to reset ties with reclusive but strategically vital African state Trump intends to invite Putin to G-20 summit in Miami, officials say Iran war complicates contingency plans to defend Taiwan, some U.S. officials sayIn The News
Israel
The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, due to expire Sunday, will be extended for three weeks, President Donald Trump said Thursday during the second round of peace talks at the White House. – Washington Post
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza on Thursday, and Israeli soldiers shot and killed a 15-year-old during an army raid in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Palestinian health officials said. – Reuters
More than 250 Indians claiming descent from a biblical tribe landed at Ben Gurion Airport on Thursday, as part of a government operation to relocate them to Israel. – Agence France-Presse
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar appointed veteran diplomat George Deek to a newly created role as special envoy to the Christian world, in a move “intended to deepen Israel’s ties with Christian communities around the world,” the ministry announced Thursday, amid a series of damaging scandals. – Times of Israel
“Israel is prepared to renew the war against Iran,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said at the end of a situational assessment on Thursday, with the military awaiting the green light from the United States to “complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty.” – Jerusalem Post
US President Donald Trump officially became the first non-Israeli to receive Israel’s top civilian prize on Wednesday – but he wasn’t on hand to receive his honor. – Jerusalem Post
IDF combat teams in southern Lebanon discovered a hidden Hezbollah stronghold 25 meters underground inside a clothing store, according to a Thursday statement. – Jerusalem Post
Two IDF soldiers were indicted on charges of spying for Iran in exchange for financial compensation, the military, police, and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) announced on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Anne Dreazen writes: Pursued simultaneously, they create tensions that will be difficult to manage. If this moment leads to a sustained reduction in violence, it could mark the culmination of a trajectory in which Hezbollah is weakened not only on the battlefield, but within the political system it has long dominated. Alternatively, if Hezbollah emerges from this ceasefire intact, with its arsenal replenished, the region will simply be resetting the clock. A ceasefire can stop a war, but by itself it cannot end one. That requires a strategy and the willingness to follow through while the window for action is still open. – Jerusalem Post
David Schenker writes: Aoun and Salam have to tread carefully. Given concerns about Hezbollah backlash, Beirut will likely want to proceed incrementally toward its stated goal of establishing a state monopoly on weapons. But Washington, which has been underwriting much of the LAF budget since 2005, will want to see tangible progress relatively soon. So will Israel, especially given that during the last ceasefire, Hezbollah was able to rearm and reconstitute. For Lebanon, the negotiations are an opportunity to cement the ceasefire into a more lasting peace. Israel’s objective is to see Beirut fulfil its November 2024 ceasefire obligation to disarm Hezbollah.From delineating borders to water agreements, much can be accomplished during the direct talks. But the negotiations could stall, and the ceasefire crumble if the government does not start taking demonstrable steps to end Hezbollah’s control over the state. – Al Majalla
Iran
The Iranian-flagged oil tanker Dorena slipped past a U.S. Navy cordon and was headed out into the Indian Ocean when it switched off its location signal and went dark. – Wall Street Journal
The phrase “nuclear dust” seemed designed to diminish the importance of what Mr. Trump is actually talking about — Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium, which is stored in canisters about the size of large scuba tanks. – New York Times
Iran’s use of a swarm of small, fast boats to seize two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz could undermine suggestions U.S. forces have disabled its naval threat and reveals the challenges facing reopening one of the world’s most important oil export routes. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday Washington had no objections to Iranian players participating in the 2026 FIFA World Cup but he added the players will not be allowed to bring with them people with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would not use a nuclear weapon in the war against Iran. “Why would I use a nuclear weapon? We’ve totally, in a very conventional way, decimated them without it,” Trump told reporters at the White House when asked whether he would use such a weapon. – Reuters
Iran vowed it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the United States continues to blockade its ports, in a tense standoff on Thursday that has dominated the ceasefire in the Middle East war. – Agence France-Presse
The Pentagon on Thursday denied a Washington Post report that said the department had assessed it would take six months to completely clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian-laid mines. – Agence France-Presse
Iran hanged a man on Thursday after he was convicted of membership in a banned opposition group and alleged collaboration with Israel, the judiciary said. – Agence France-Presse
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said his war against Iran is intended to prevent Tehran from ever getting a nuclear weapon. But when it comes to core nuclear issues, he risks ending up with a worse deal than the one he abandoned in his first term. – Bloomberg
Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s exiled former crown prince, was splashed with a red liquid during a visit in Berlin. Videos on social media showed the son of Iran’s last shah leaving a press briefing when an unidentified man approached him from behind, throwing what appeared to be tomato sauce and splattering his coat and neck. – Bloomberg
Amid charged exchanges between President Trump and Iran’s fragmented leadership over the regime’s insistence that it retain its nuclear enrichment system, top experts on Iran’s atomic weapons program support the commander in chief’s ironclad goal to dissolve it. – Fox News
After US-Israeli airstrikes rocked Iran’s leadership, killing dozens of top officials in the initial days of the war, one man has risen to control the Islamic Republic from the shadows. Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has mobilized his inner circle to take control of Iran’s military response and negotiating team, analysts said. – New York Post
The expiration of a US sanctions waiver on Iranian oil last weekend has brought renewed attention to Washington’s economic strategy, as policymakers seek to limit Tehran’s access to revenue while navigating global energy market pressures. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
US President Donald Trump on Thursday said the US Navy would “shoot and kill” any boat mining the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed “infighting” has hobbled Iran’s ability to respond to peace proposals. – Times of Israel
The planned Iranian delegation to the negotiations in Pakistan was told not to address the nuclear issue during talks with the US, Iran International reported on Thursday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. – Jerusalem Post
Some Israeli and American officials believe Mojtaba Khamenei is not functioning as the Iranian supreme leader and is not in control, two people familiar with the matter have told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
Mike Lyons writes: Whatever one thinks of Operation Epic Fury, the signal is unambiguous: The U.S. is willing to apply overwhelming force, with deliberate restraint toward civilian infrastructure and without escalation anxiety. That is a different America from the one Iran and China have been modeling. They are updating their models now. The media will keep covering this war as a story about Donald Trump. That is their prerogative and their loss. The actual story is bigger than any one president and will outlast this news cycle by a generation. – Wall Street Journal
Eli Lake writes: None of this is to say that Iran’s nuclear program is completely destroyed. Albright said he estimates that Iran still has between 300 and 500 centrifuges. But Iran’s capability to rapidly build a nuclear weapon has been taken away through military force. It’s possible that Iran may start to rebuild the capability it has lost but that process will take far more time and be easier to detect. Even if Trump fails to get Iran’s regime to accept a nuclear deal, Iran will still be much further away from obtaining the bomb than it ever was under the JCPOA. This is because the president has destroyed the nuclear program that Obama legitimized. – The Free Press
Amit Segal writes: Thankfully, out of both moral necessity and practical reality, the IDF has taken swift action. The soldier who smashed the statue, along with the soldier who photographed the act, have been dismissed from combat duty and sentenced to jail. Six other soldiers who were present at the scene and did not act to stop the incident or report it are also under investigation. The IDF has also organized a replacement for the broken icon, which it has returned to the village. The unfortunate truth is that soldiers will inevitably do destructive, foolish things. That cannot always be prevented. The ultimate measure of an army’s morality is not whether bad actors exist within its ranks—it is how the system holds them accountable. – The Free Press
Stephen Cimbala writes: The Middle East has long been a region of latent nuclear potential. Several states possess advanced civilian nuclear infrastructures, and many have expressed interest in developing fuel‑cycle capabilities. The war in Iran has intensified these dynamics by heightening perceptions of vulnerability. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt may interpret the conflict as evidence that regional security guarantees are unreliable. As a result, they may pursue nuclear hedging strategies—developing civilian programs that shorten the timeline for potential weapons development without overtly violating the NPT. This hedging behavior could create a proliferation cascade, where each state’s actions prompt others to follow suit. – The National Interest
Russia and Ukraine
The approval of a 90-billion-euro European Union loan throws Ukraine a lifeline, averting deep cuts to public services, but Kyiv may need more money to meet its military needs this year, economists and officials said. – Reuters
A Russian drone attack overnight on Ukraine’s southern city of Odesa killed an elderly married couple and wounded more than a dozen others, Ukrainian officials said on Friday. – Reuters
Four European states accused Russia on Thursday of trying to destroy the memory of Soviet leader Josef Stalin’s crimes against his own people after a monument to Russians and other people executed by his secret police was dismantled in Siberia. – Reuters
A woman living in a Russian-controlled part of southern Ukraine has been found guilty of treason and sentenced to 14 years in prison for buying war bonds to support the Ukrainian military, the court that convicted her said on Thursday. – Reuters
Russian billionaires increased their wealth by 11% to a record $696.5 billion over the past year despite the war in Ukraine and the toughest Western sanctions ever imposed on a major economy, Forbes Russia, reported. – Reuters
Ukraine has reportedly unleashed a powerful new defense against Russian Shahed drones that have tied up its air force and traumatized civilians with persistent attacks. – Defense News
The Pentagon has surged tens of thousands of service members to the Middle East since the war with Iran began, raising questions here about how involved the Trump administration could get in securing a peace agreement in Ukraine when the time comes – even if it wanted to. – Defense News
Mihkel Märtens writes: Western sanctions against Russia have become a major pillar of the policy response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Implementing tough measures to limit Russia’s access to critical goods and technology, sever financial ties between Russia and the G7+ coalition, and cut Russian energy revenues has proved a challenge, given Russia’s prewar integration into the global economy. Yet the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia and its enablers have to some degree achieved their goals. As evidence of sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, it is extremely telling that sanctions relief is among the top demands of Russia in any discussions over a negotiated end to the war of aggression. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Hezbollah
Hezbollah fired a salvo of rockets at northern Israel late Thursday night, in the first such breach of the shaky ceasefire, shortly before US President Donald Trump announced the truce would be extended as envoys from Beirut and Jerusalem met in Washington. – Times of Israel
Hezbollah runs financial operations across the European continent, including drug smuggling and blood diamond trading, Austria’s Documentation Center on Political Islam (DPI) revealed in its new report. – Jerusalem Post
Nicole Mischel writes: From a political, diplomatic, and strategic perspective, this case redefines the scope of the current conflict. Israel is not only confronting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; it is confronting a global architecture built over decades. The extradition of Ali Zaki Hage Jalil symbolizes something essential: that the war against terrorism does not end on the battlefield, but continues through the persistence of memory, diplomatic pressure, and the ability of states to act beyond their borders. Justice, even when delayed, is also a form of deterrence. And in this new order, where terrorism is transnational, the response must be as well. – Jerusalem Post
Rany Ballout writes: By launching these negotiations, Lebanon is asserting that the state alone holds the authority to negotiate. Having monopolized the decision over war and peace for nearly two decades, Hezbollah is now beginning to lose the coercive leverage and narrative it maintained over Lebanese political and diplomatic decision-making. The Lebanese state is thus gradually regaining exclusive authority over the conduct of diplomacy. These negotiations offer a rare opportunity for the state to reclaim ownership of its national narrative, representing a crucial step toward sovereignty and state-building. Their failure, however, would likely lead to internal collapse or even civil strife. – The National Interest
Lebanon
Italian UN peacekeepers have replaced the statue of Jesus Christ vandalised by Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Thursday. – Reuters
Some form of ongoing UN presence might continue after a peacekeeping mission in Lebanon ends later this year, UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix said Thursday. – Times of Israel
Anchal Vohra writes: It would be naive to think that Hezbollah will give up its weapons without a fight. It is equally unlikely that any Western country is willing to deploy its soldiers in what would become door-to-door fighting. Britain and France have pledged to deploy troops in Ukraine but only after Russia agrees to a peace deal. An international stabilization force—comprising multinational troops—is also part of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, but even that hasn’t yet materialized. The fix won’t be easy. Yet Israel and Lebanon have a shot to try to get it right. Talks won’t lead to a “new dawn” in the Middle East, said Avner Vilan, a former senior Israeli security official and Iran expert. But he hoped that they would lead to “something that grows down the line” and shifts the balance of power in favor of Lebanese state institutions, ultimately “diplomatically disarming” Hezbollah. – Foreign Policy
Middle East & North Africa
An operation to tow a Russian tanker adrift in the Mediterranean Sea failed on Wednesday, leaving the laden vessel unmoored about 120 nautical miles north of the city of Benghazi, Libya, according to the Libyan Ports and Maritime Transport Authority. – New York Times
Gulf oil production, sharply curtailed by the Iran conflict, is likely to mostly recover within a few months after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, but could take significantly longer, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday. – Reuters
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, with only occasional movements of Iran-linked vessels breaking the lull. As of Thursday morning, only one Iran-linked bulk carrier was observed making the transit out of the Persian Gulf, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. – Bloomberg
Syrian forces in Syria have carried out a wave of arrests of Palestinians in Damascus over the past few weeks, alleging connections to the Assad regime, Islamic State, or recent violent demonstrations, according to Palestinian rights organizations and Arab media reports. – Jerusalem Post
Korean Peninsula
South Korean prosecutors sought a 30-year jail term for former President Yoon Suk Yeol on Friday, in a case alleging he ordered a drone operation over Pyongyang to help create a pretext for his December 2024 declaration of martial law, Yonhap news agency said. – Reuters
South Korean and Vietnamese companies signed 73 business deals on tech, energy and infrastructure on Thursday as South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visited Hanoi, a list seen by Reuters showed. – Reuters
South Korea’s national security adviser said on Thursday the U.S. alliance was not in crisis despite recent friction, though he acknowledged that current strains with Washington required careful management, according to media reports. – Reuters
China
Since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, Chinese satellite imagery of the conflict zone has proliferated—potentially offering battlefield guidance to Tehran and other U.S. adversaries. – Wall Street Journal
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday said it firmly opposes Washington’s criticism of Chinese pressure on some African countries to revoke overflight clearances for Taiwan’s president. – Reuters
U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines will lead a five-member bipartisan delegation to China next week, the South China Morning Post reported on Friday, citing sources. – Reuters
President Xi Jinping has for years worked to isolate Taiwan’s leaders by blocking their diplomatic meetings and participation in global organizations. Now, he’s also looking to keep them out of the skies. – Bloomberg
The star of China’s booming artificial intelligence defense sector had been working on Taiwan invasion scenarios—until he died in an unexplained car crash in the early hours of the morning in Beijing, aged just 38. – Newsweek
Rahm Emanuel writes: China’s investments in science and technology pose a real threat, but by drawing new revenue from the prediction and online sports gambling industry and reforming our tax code, we can invest in our future. Democrats can take the lead on driving research forward and holding Beijing at bay. I’m tired of watching people win by betting against America, rather than betting on our nation’s success. The ideas I’ve outlined are only the beginning—pieces of a broader economic-growth strategy to ensure our country’s global pre-eminence for generations to come. – Wall Street Journal
Henrietta Levin writes: Ultimately, China hopes to prevent the United States from becoming more involved in the South China Sea. Beijing seeks to advance its claims as far as possible, while staying just short of a threshold that would trigger more serious U.S. engagement. It is critical for Washington to help the Chinese leadership understand where that threshold lies, and it cannot rely on the existing military-to-military channels to achieve this. Clear communication between adversaries may be one of diplomacy’s most difficult tasks, but in the South China Sea it could make the difference between war and peace. – Foreign Affairs
Christopher Nye writes: The suppliers are not household names. They are micro-enterprises operating with a handful of employees and stated business scopes unrelated to aviation. Shenzhen Caspro, sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2024, was officially in “automotive electronics” while shipping aerospace-grade radar altimeters to Iranian military projects. Guilin Alpha, with three registered employees, supplied precision aviation parts and then filed for simplified deregistration, claiming it had never traded. The starkest illustration sits in Chinese corporate filings. – The National Interest
South Asia
India has dismissed as “uninformed” comments shared by U.S. President Donald Trump that described the country as a “hellhole”, saying they were inappropriate and inconsistent with the strong relationship between the two countries. – Reuters
Pakistan LNG Limited has issued its first spot tender for liquefied natural gas (LNG) since December 2023 amid supply shortfalls triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. – Reuters
India’s clean energy ministry said on Thursday it was examining petitions from both solar manufacturers and developers of clean energy over a mandate to use only domestically made solar cells in power projects from June. – Reuters
Asia
Thailand’s Supreme Court said on Friday it had accepted a petition that accuses 44 current and former opposition lawmakers of ethics violations over their attempt in 2021 to amend a law that protects the monarchy from criticism. – Reuters
Judges at the International Criminal Court confirmed murder charges against former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte as crimes against humanity on Thursday, paving the way for a trial. – Reuters
The U.S. government on Thursday imposed sanctions on Kok An, a wealthy Cambodian senator and ally of Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, and 28 individuals and entities that it said had stolen millions of dollars from U.S. citizens using crypto-romance scams. – Reuters
Indonesia’s top diplomat said the country will not pursue tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Malacca, seeking to calm concerns after its finance minister raised the idea this week. – Bloomberg
Japan and Australia are set to add to their close and burgeoning defense relationship, with the two nations set to seal an economic security deal in early May, Kyodo News reported. – Bloomberg
Derek Grossman writes: It remains to be seen whether Japan can complete its geopolitical transformation. Outside observers will hope that Takaichi, who models herself on Margaret Thatcher, will apply that kind of iron will to cementing the U.S.’s commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The SDF’s increasing strength, in combination with Japan’s supreme diplomatic prestige in Asia, make her chances look good. – Washington Post
Gearoid Reidy writes: “Japan is one of the only countries in the world that can do it all on their own,” he said, “if they want to.” Luckey’s last comment is key. No one doubts the nation has the skill. What it needs now is the will. The government must take the lead: co-promoting sales abroad, changing how it configures procurement contracts to encourage investment, loosening restrictions on R&D in advanced sectors such as drones, and convincing firms to utilize their excess production capacity. The free world is waiting. – Bloomberg
Edward Owen writes: Given the Philippines’ non-trivial concerns, the United States should work with Manila and friendly Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) partners to bolster the Philippines’ energy security. Washington has options in this initiative. The ASEAN power grid—which seeks to enhance Southeast Asia’s energy security through a more integrated regional energy structure—can benefit from American development finance tools and technical expertise. Other energy-adjacent opportunities for development cooperation include submarine cable interconnections across the archipelago, which would help reduce the logistical costs of transporting energy between island population centers. – The National Interest
Europe
Pope Leo XIV is re-establishing the Catholic Church as a loud voice in world affairs, challenging President Trump over the war in Iran and decrying the rule of tyrants during a trip to Africa. – Wall Street Journal
The U.K. government narrowed its budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended at the start of April, but further progress in reducing borrowing is likely to be challenging if the conflict in the Middle East is prolonged. – Wall Street Journal
Britain’s King Charles heads to the United States next week for the most high-profile trip of his reign so far, on a mission to shore up the future of the two allies’ “special relationship” which the Iran war has plunged to its lowest point in 70 years. – Reuters
Seven ministers from Romania’s largest party, the Social Democrats, resigned from the pro-European coalition government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan on Thursday, depriving him of a parliamentary majority and endangering access to EU funds. – Reuters
Britain’s Prince Harry made an unannounced visit to Kyiv on Thursday and called on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to end the war – a week after a massive Russian aerial attack on the country – and on U.S. President Donald Trump to show leadership to help resolve the conflict. – Reuters
Within minutes of takeoff from the Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania, they were over the Baltic Sea, first intercepting a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft and then tailing supersonic Russian bombers and their fighter escorts that neared the airspace of multiple NATO countries. – Associated Press
The U.K. and French governments signed a new multimillion-euro deal on Thursday aimed at reducing the number of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats, with increased police patrols and enhanced surveillance in northern France. – Associated Press
Hungarian outgoing foreign minister Peter Szijjarto, whose ties to Moscow triggered speculation about his allegiance during the election campaign, said he had no regrets about cultivating relations with Russia. – Bloomberg
The European Union warned member states that efforts to strengthen safeguards in the bloc’s trade agreement with the US may cause the deal to unravel. – Bloomberg
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned that the European Union’s proposals to tackle the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran have fallen short of what’s needed. – Bloomberg
Hungary’s incoming ruling party wants to divert €16.2 billion ($19 billion) in European Union defense loans away from companies linked to outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban as it seeks to speed up access to the funds. – Bloomberg
Estonia’s prime minister said there’s no alternative to Ukraine’s full membership in the European Union as the bloc’s leaders gather to discuss closer ties with the war-battered nation. – Bloomberg
Lithuania’s parliament gave final approval to build a military training ground near a strategically vital stretch of NATO territory, amid protests by local residents and opposition from within the governing coalition. – Bloomberg
Daniel Kochis writes: On defense and migration — issues central to U.S. interests — the incoming government’s positions closely align with what a Trump administration would favor. Tisza’s platform calls for raising defense spending to 5 percent of GDP and strengthening border security by maintaining the southern border fence while rejecting the EU’s migration pact and quota system. How closely a Magyar-led Hungary adheres to campaign promises remains to be seen. Yet for too long, American conservatives have idealized Orban’s rule without looking under the hood. A stagnant Hungary aligned with America’s principal adversaries does not serve U.S. interests — and that is why Americans of all political stripes should welcome the winds of change now sweeping Budapest. – The Hill
Miro Sedlák writes: The architecture has been built, and the calls are open, but, unfortunately, spending is not a strategy, and capacity is not capability. A March 2026 Politico-Cluster17 survey of nearly 7,000 voters across six EU countries found 86% agree that Europe must develop its own defense capabilities, and 87% would accept higher economic costs for strategic self-reliance. European electors understand what’s needed, and Brussels is introducing many sensible measures. What it can’t do, however, is force capitals to get moving. Nor can it ensure, if the factories are actually built, that Europe will know what to do with them. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Nico Lange writes: A modern defense economy cannot be built by government ministries and bureaucracies alone; it requires a “Team Europe” approach, a strategic alliance of governments, armed forces, industry, finance, and research. This approach lowers investment barriers, strengthens public acceptance of the defense sector, and keeps industrial value creation in Europe. Europeans must act as anchor investors in their own security, not as bystanders. Europe will not become defense‑ready simply because it spends more money. It will become defense‑ready when it spends strategically on sovereignty, on technology, and on speed. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
A senior Trump administration official, Massad Boulos, has told foreign counterparts that the U.S. aims to begin lifting some sanctions on Eritrea, a small African country with more than 700 miles of Red Sea coastline, according to current and former officials familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal
Rebel fighters in Sudan’s civil war have landed on a lucrative way to funding their brutal campaign: looting the country’s museums. Historians and curators say the Rapid Support Forces that have been fighting government forces for the past three years are now targeting Sudan’s rich cultural history and selling it to the highest bidder in the illicit international art market. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump’s administration is considering more than doubling an annual refugee limit to bring more white South Africans into the U.S., according to three people familiar with the matter. – Reuters
At least 518 people were killed in violence that broke out during Tanzania’s elections last October, a government-appointed commission of inquiry said on Thursday, in the first official acknowledgment of the scale of the deadly unrest. – Reuters
Sierra Leone said on Thursday it had signed a petroleum licence agreement with Nigeria‑based Marginal Energy Limited, granting the company offshore exploration and production rights as the government seeks to revive interest in its under‑explored upstream sector. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund will send a team to Mozambique in June to advance talks on a new loan programme, a spokesperson said, as the country struggles with rising debt, a shrinking economy and limited resources to fund essential public services. – Reuters
East African countries are discussing plans for a joint oil refinery at Tanzania’s port of Tanga modelled on Nigeria’s Dangote plant, Kenyan President William Ruto said on Thursday. – Reuters
It’s always been challenging for Abbas Awad to find medicines in his village outside Sudan ’s capital. But since the war in Iran, it’s become harder. Prices have spiked and many pharmacies in the area are out of stock. – Associated Press
For every glass of water or a shower taken in Gauteng, South Africa’s most populous province that includes Johannesburg, there is a 60% chance the water came from its small neighbor, the mountain kingdom of Lesotho. – Associated Press
A bill by Ugandan authorities whose stated purpose is to deter foreign interference has drawn widespread criticism as concern grows over its all-encompassing definition of a foreign agent and its potential to hurt the work of civic groups. – Associated Press
Mauritius is giving the UK more time to secure President Donald Trump’s backing for a delayed deal that will hand sovereignty of the Chagos archipelago to the Indian Ocean island nation. – Bloomberg
Cameron Hudson writes: Instead, Washington is today just one of a dozen actors to have thrown its hat in the ring of competitive interests in the Red Sea with seemingly little care or concern for the strategic ripple effects that might emerge. If such a normalization of relations with Eritrea is to occur, Washington needs to prepare itself now for the second- and third-order effects it will have set in motion and be prepared to manage them, lest this diplomatic thaw add new, unforeseen complications in a region already beset with challenges. – Foreign Policy
The Americas
The United States is concerned about some Chinese infrastructure in Argentina, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno said at a press conference at the U.S. ambassador’s residence in Buenos Aires. – Reuters
The government of Argentina’s President Javier Milei blocked the entry of accredited journalists to government house Casa Rosada on Thursday, citing an incident of “illegal espionage” after a local television network aired footage recorded with smart glasses. – Reuters
Paraguay received on Thursday a first group of 16 migrants from third countries deported from the United States under a migration cooperation agreement signed between the two countries, the Paraguayan government said in a statement. – Reuters
Peru’s defense and foreign ministers resigned Wednesday following an announcement by the country’s interim president to defer the decision on a $3.5 billion deal for U.S. F-16 fighter jets to his successor who will emerge from a presidential runoff vote in June. – Associated Press
Against a backdrop of rising global tensions and energy market instability, governments from around 50 countries will gather Friday in Colombia’s Caribbean city of Santa Marta for a summit aimed at accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels. – Associated Press
North America
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said officials are ready to either negotiate with the Trump administration on trade or wait it out until the U.S. addresses some of his country’s concerns. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson on Thursday hinted at “significant action” soon on tackling bribery and corruption as part of the countries’ trilateral trade pact with Canada. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump has not mentioned the concept of Canada paying an “entry fee” before a scheduled review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal can start, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum sought to de-escalate tensions with the U.S. on Thursday after the deaths of two Americans, who sources say were CIA officers working on an anti-narcotics operation, in a car crash in the northern state of Chihuahua. – Reuters
The new U.N.-backed international force charged with combating Haiti’s violent gangs has received more pledges than the 5,500 military and police it is seeking, with Chadian troops already deployed in the capital, Port-au-Prince, the U.N. special envoy to the violence-torn country said Thursday. – Associated Press
Havana will not abide by any American “ultimatums” to release political prisoners as part of new talks, a Cuban diplomat said Thursday, while asserting that leaders are “preparing for all scenarios” if U.S. President Donald Trump makes good on threats to intervene in the island nation. – Associated Press
President Claudia Sheinbaum said she’s waiting on US approval to name Roberto Lazzeri as Mexico’s next ambassador to Washington, as major security and trade questions hang over the crucial bilateral relationship. – Bloomberg
United States
Federal authorities on Thursday charged a U.S. Army soldier who took part in the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro with using classified information to reap more than $400,000 from bets on the former Venezuelan leader’s ouster. – Wall Street Journal
The United States intends to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Group of 20 leaders’ summit scheduled for December at President Donald Trump’s Doral golf resort in Miami, though the invitation has not yet been sent, administration officials said Thursday. – Washington Post
The U.S. Department of Justice said on Thursday it would immediately loosen restrictions on some marijuana products and move quickly to reclassify the drug as less dangerous, in one of the biggest changes to U.S. drug policy in decades. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration said on Thursday it launched a civil rights probe into New York City’s Department of Education over a pro-Palestinian group of educators. – Reuters
Cybersecurity
The White House on Thursday accused China of stealing U.S. artificial intelligence labs’ intellectual property on an industrial scale in a memo that threatens to strain relations ahead of a summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders next month. – Reuters
International cyber agencies on Thursday urged organisations to better defend against covert networks used by China-linked hackers to conceal malicious cyber activity, according to Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre. – Reuters
Norway’s government said on Friday it will propose a ban on the use of social media for children under the age of 16, and will make technology companies responsible for age verification of young users. – Reuters
The Netherlands is facing the greatest threat to its national security since the end of World War Two, chiefly from Russia and China, against the backdrop of a much more “unpredictable” world order, Dutch intelligence agency AIVD said on Thursday. – Reuters
The multiple investigations into xAI’s creation and dissemination of sexually abusive imagery may lead the company to lose access to certain markets, parent company SpaceX warned in a prospectus reviewed by Reuters. – Reuters
British authorities say they have closed a loophole that could allow rogue actors to secretly track mobile phone users through the international telecommunications system. – Reuters
Britain is investigating how data from a health charity came to be advertised for sale on China’s Alibaba, a government minister said on Thursday, including one dataset that appeared to contain information from 500,000 people. – Reuters
Singapore is transforming from East-West gateway to neutral ground for the AI sector, with Chinese startups hoping to operate beyond government reach while U.S. firms seek foreign talent without the headache of stricter visa regulations. – Reuters
A state-sponsored hacking group has implanted a custom backdoor on Cisco network security devices that can survive firmware updates and standard reboots, U.S. and British cybersecurity authorities disclosed Thursday, marking a significant escalation in a campaign that has targeted government and critical infrastructure networks since at least late 2025. – Cyberscoop
The Trump administration’s choice to run the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has withdrawn from consideration after his nomination stalled for more than a year in the Senate, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation. – The Record
House Republicans on Wednesday introduced a federal comprehensive data privacy bill that would preempt at least 20 state laws, alarming privacy advocates who urged lawmakers to vote against it because they believe the protections it offers are too weak. – The Record
A previously undocumented China-aligned threat actor targeted a Mongolian government entity and used popular communication platforms such as Discord, Slack and Microsoft 365 Outlook to manage its operations and steal data, researchers have found. – The Record
Joe Buccino writes: To maintain a competitive AI advantage over China, Washington should treat human-generated data as a strategic asset and invest in journalism, open web archives, and synthetic-content labeling. Preserving the integrity of American training data is a defense imperative, not a tech problem. Chinese leaders deploying AI products to make decisions about economics, geopolitics, and public health will make those decisions based on systems trained on what China’s information control apparatus wants people to believe. That is not an intelligence system. It is a mirror. And the tragedy of model collapse is that a mirror that has been looking at itself long enough no longer reflects anything. – Defense News
Defense
John Phelan sat in the lobby of the West Wing for more than an hour Wednesday night, waiting to see if his longtime friend and neighbor, President Trump, would save his job. He would leave disappointed. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. has burned through so many munitions in Iran that some administration officials increasingly assess that America couldn’t fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion if it occurred in the near term, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal
A third U.S. aircraft carrier and the warships escorting it arrived in waters near Iran on Thursday, officials said, significantly amplifying the military force at President Donald Trump’s disposal as he pressures the government in Tehran to surrender its nuclear program, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and agree to end a weeks-long war that has destabilized much of the region. – Washington Post
The US Air Force plans to buy nearly 4,300 long-range stealth cruise missiles from Lockheed Martin Corp. over the next five years, according to new budget documents, after using them against Iranian targets. – Bloomberg
It’s no secret that Operation Epic Fury and the associated war in the Middle East have sparked major disruptions in the complex, global logistics network that U.S. Transportation Command relies on to move, equip and support the joint force. – Defensescoop
The U.S. Marine Corps and Navy are collaborating to boost the nation’s current inadequate amphibious fleet size, according to the top-ranked U.S. Marine Corps officer. – Defense News
The Pentagon’s Golden Dome project is slated to cost upwards of $185 billion, with $17 billion alone planned for fiscal year 2027. And with all that money comes attention — and a mandate to sell the ambitious idea to the taxpaying public, the program’s head acknowledged today. – Breaking Defense
Military personnel and Defense Department civilians have used a version of Google Gemini’s Agent Designer to create over 100,000 semi-autonomous AI agents in less than five weeks since the tool became available, a Pentagon official told Breaking Defense. – Breaking Defense
A government team of the Defense Innovation Unit and the Department of the Air Force have selected three companies to “potentially develop and operate” nuclear microreactors at military installations, according to an Air Force press release. – Breaking Defense
Lockheed Martin has decided not to pursue a competition for a new Navy training jet, the company told Breaking Defense. – Breaking Defense
Editorial: You can fit the qualified candidates onto a tender. Two are Mike Gallagher, the former Republican Congressman from Wisconsin, and Rep. Rob Wittman of Virginia. Mr. Trump has fewer than 36 months left in office, which is a flash when it comes to shipbuilding. A savvy Navy secretary can be much more than a ribbon cutter, and few projects are as worth the President’s time as making sure America’s naval fleet is prepared to meet the Chinese challenge. – Wall Street Journal
Jason Blessing writes: U.S. cyber statecraft has grappled with the same strategic, informational, and bureaucratic challenges facing economic statecraft today. Getting economic statecraft right also bolsters cyber statecraft. The two are interdependent and mutually reinforcing, and the global competitive environment requires leveraging economic and cyber efforts in tandem. America has all the right tools for conducting effective economic statecraft, and now is the time to integrate them with novel strategy, new incentive structures, and more streamlined coordination. – War on the Rocks
Ryosuke Hanada writes: What the United States and its allies should pursue instead is a quieter but more durable agenda: de facto integration of command and control. Last year, Japan created a new unified military headquarters — the Joint Operations Command — to coordinate its army, navy, and air force under a single chain of command. Simultaneously, the United States decided to strengthen the command and control function of U.S. Forces Japan to smooth the coordination with the Japan Self-Defense Forces. However, the two countries still operate through separate command structures rather than a truly integrated one, risking delaying effective bilateral operations where real-time coordination, including joint targeting and strikes, is most critical. – War on the Rocks