FAQ: The Challenge of Disarming Hamas

Three days after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire went into effect on October 10, Hamas released all 20 living hostages still in captivity. The group seized most of the hostages on October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed into Israel, killing some 1,200 people and abducting 251 others. Phase one of the ceasefire will be complete when Hamas returns the remains of all 28 deceased hostages that it holds. Yet even now, attention is turning to the next major milestone in President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan: the disarmament of Hamas. But can Hamas be disarmed, and what exactly would that look like?

Q: Are Hamas leaders willing to disarm?

Hamas has never accepted the entirety of Trump’s 20-point plan, and no Hamas leader has publicly taken a clear stand agreeing to disarmament. Senior Hamas official Mohammed Nazzal told Reuters on October 18 that future phases of the plan would need the agreement of other Palestinian terror groups in Gaza and Palestinians more broadly. When Nazzal was asked specifically whether the group would disarm, he stated that he couldn’t “answer with a yes or no,” adding, “it depends on the nature of the [disarmament] project. To whom will the weapons be handed over?” However, Trump told journalists on October 14 that disarmament is a certainty. “I spoke to Hamas, and I said, you’re going to disarm, right? Yes, sir, we’re going to disarm. That’s what they told me,” Trump said, while adding, “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem sought to avoid the question, telling Al-Arabiya on October 14 that the group does “not need to limit [itself] to the Israeli terms and definitions related to weapons,” adding that Hamas “will not be captives to Israeli terms or demands.” One unnamed Hamas official told Agence France-Presse on October 11 that “the proposed weapons handover is out of the question and not negotiable.”

Q: What weapons would Hamas be required to relinquish?

The 20-point plan states that “All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt.” Israel’s Channel 12 news reported on October 22 that over half of Hamas’s terror tunnels built before the war remain active. The proposal further states that existing weapons will be decommissioned, a process “supported by an internationally funded buy-back and reintegration program, all verified by the independent monitors.” Until now, Hamas has not publicly agreed to any of Trump’s provisions. Palestinian-American mediator Bishara Bahbah, who reportedly played a significant role in the negotiations that led to the release of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, claimed on October 14 that the Trump administration’s definition of disarming Hamas does not entail complete disarmament. Rather, the White House “interprets disarmament as Hamas handing over its heavy weapons to the Arab-Palestinian-Islamic side.” Another unnamed Hamas source stated that Hamas would retain its weapons but only use them “in the event of an Israeli attack on Gaza.”

If Hamas does consent to disarm, the success of that process will hinge on enforcing and verifying the disposal of both its light and heavy weaponry. In turn, this will depend on coming up with a credible estimate of Hamas’s inventory of weapons based on valid and up-to-date intelligence. Point 9 of the 20-point plan envisions the creation of a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump. The board may wish to create a disarmament commission to develop estimates of this inventory with full access to Israeli, American, and other countries’ intelligence. Tony Blair, who will be a member of the board according to Trump’s plan, has experience with disarming radical groups. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister when the Good Friday Agreement was signed in Northern Ireland, leading to the disarmament of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA) with oversight from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning.

Q: At what point in the Trump administration’s 20-point peace plan is Hamas required to disarm?

It is not entirely clear. According to Point 6, “once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty.” The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel and Hamas had begun negotiating the next phase of Trump’s plan, but unnamed Israeli officials denied it, saying talks will follow only after the return of all hostages’ remains. Trump himself stated on October 14 that “the job is not done. The dead [hostages] have not been returned, as promised.” An unnamed Israeli government spokesperson asserted that “Hamas … is required to uphold its commitments to the mediators and return all of our hostages as part of the implementation of this agreement.”

Q: What has been the focus of Hamas activity since the ceasefire went into effect?

Hamas has shown no intention of relinquishing its grip on power in Gaza, even though Point 6 of the 20-point peace plan says, “Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form.” On October 12, Hamas fighters raided the Sabra neighborhood in Gaza City, home to the Doghmush clan. The resulting clashes left 52 clan members dead. On October 13, a video surfaced showing members of Hamas’s “Arrow” unit, which enforces the terror group’s authority in Gaza, executing seven members of the Doghmush clan. Hamas also deployed more than 7,000 fighters to reassert control over its territory, and it has threatened clans and families that do not “withdraw their social and tribal cover from members involved” in past fighting against Hamas. Several clans in Gaza have issued statements reaffirming their loyalty to Hamas and the “Palestinian resistance.” U.S. Central Command leader Admiral Brad Cooper responded by warning, “We strongly urge Hamas to immediately suspend violence and shooting at innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza.” Cooper also called on the terror group to disarm “without delay.”

Q: What entity would oversee and verify that disarmament had taken place?

The 20-point plan states that “independent monitors” will oversee the process of demilitarization. These individuals, while not yet named, will likely work with the “temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF)” comprising Arab and other international partners. They would also need to oversee the decommissioning of the 350- to 450-mile-long tunnel network under Gaza, the majority of which remains intact. The proposed independent monitors would also need to locate and decommission Hamas weapon caches within the remaining tunnel infrastructure to verify compliance.

Q: Besides the United States and Israel, what other countries support Hamas disarmament?

A group of 17 countries, including Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia — plus the European Union — called on Hamas to “end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority” in July, before the 20-point plan was proposed. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul claimed on Deutchlandfunk radio on October 13 that Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and other Arab nations are continuing to exert pressure on Hamas to disarm. “All these states don’t want Hamas to continue to be active. They want disarmament and in this respect, we have a good pressure scenario,” he stated. Separately, though not explicitly mentioning disarmament, on October 13, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey penned a joint statement to Trump at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, where they assured Trump of their “determination to dismantle extremism and radicalization in all its forms.” On September 23, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas promised that “Hamas will have no role in governance, and it, along with other factions, must hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority (PA).” Still, Israel will not feel reassured by Abbas’s words after his government reportedly paid Palestinian terrorists and their families over $945 million between 2019 and 2024 under the PA’s “Pay-to-Slay” program. Meanwhile, while Iran has not explicitly mentioned disarmament, Tehran’s Foreign Ministry released a statement describing the Islamic Republic “as a supporter of the legitimate resistance of the Palestinian people.”

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at FDD. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Samuel Ben-Ur is a research analyst FDD. For more analysis from Samuel, subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.