Trump Administration Plan for Gaza Puts Unprecedented and Unified Pressure on Hamas

The Trump administration laid out a plan on September 29 that offers a significant chance of a ceasefire in Gaza and, potentially, freedom for the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. Israel has accepted the 20-point proposal, and a coalition of eight Arab and Muslim nations issued a statement backing the initiative shortly after its unveiling. The war began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas and allied groups invaded Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

President Donald Trump said that if Hamas rejects the deal, Israel has Washington’s “full backing to do what [it] would” to defeat Hamas.

How Trump’s 20-Point Plan Differs From Previous Initiatives

Trump’s proposal demands the release of “all hostages, alive and deceased,” within 72 hours of “Israel publicly accepting” the agreement, only after which Israel will release any Palestinian prisoners in exchange. Israel would be required to pull troops back from Gaza’s population centers, with further withdrawals only occurring after the release of the abducted Israelis.

Past proposals also made few provisions for the “day after” in Gaza, leaving that for negotiations that would follow a six-week phase of hostage releases in the case of January’s truce. The Trump administration’s vision for Gaza’s future demands the disarmament of Hamas and demilitarization of the territory, the establishment of a new transitional, technocratic government, an international oversight committee, and a surge of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in need. For its part, Israel would release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and 1,700 Gazans detained post-October 7, but once again, the concession would only come after Hamas frees all the hostages. In this sense, the plan demands more up-front concessions from Hamas than Israel.

Unprecedented Pressure From Arab and Muslim States

Several of the terms in Trump’s plan have previously been nonstarters for Hamas. In April, Hamas said that it had rejected Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal because of Jerusalem’s demands for full disarmament. “Handing over the resistance’s weapons is a million red lines and is not subject to consideration,” Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri stated. In May, Hamas rejected a U.S.-proposed ceasefire, saying the group would only agree to a deal that included the full withdrawal of IDF troops from Gaza. Under Trump’s proposal, the IDF would not be required to withdraw from Gaza, even after all hostages are released.

But with the IDF’s continuing operations in Gaza City and pressure from some of Hamas’ international sponsors, including Turkey and Qatar, the diplomatic onus is on the group to end the fighting.

U.S. and International Endorsees Should Stand Firm on Conditions

According to Trump, Hamas now has “three to four” days to accept the plan. “Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it’s not, it’s going to be a very sad end,” the president said. Senior Hamas official Taher al-Nunu initially responded to the news by saying that the group “will examine any proposal that does not conflict with the interests of Palestinians.” Separately, a “source close to Hamas” told Reuters that the plan was “completely biased to Israel” and presented “impossible conditions.”

As the deadline for a response nears, Hamas may choose to agree to Trump’s plan conditionally, seeking to demand revisions to shift the pressure back on Israel to accept a ceasefire that deviates from the 20 points. Trump made clear, however, that there was “not much” room for negotiations.

The United States should not allow Hamas to shift the goalposts, seeking further concessions from Israel. Additionally, Qatari, Turkish, and Egyptian mediators should convey to Hamas that it is unlikely that there will be a better diplomatic off-ramp, especially one that gives the group’s leaders amnesty abroad, as this one does. Finally, if Hamas rejects the plan, the same bloc of nations that endorsed the U.S. proposal should support continued Israeli operations in Gaza City to free the remaining hostages and degrade Hamas militarily.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.