Palestinians, Hamas Leaders Wary of Sinwar’s ‘Megalomania’

Latest Developments

Hamas leaders have grown increasingly concerned about Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar’s leadership, The Wall Street Journal reported on October 9. Citing Arab and Hamas officials, the Journal reported that Hamas officials in Qatar, including the group’s de facto foreign minister Khaled Meshal and late political chief Ismail Haniyeh, “began privately criticizing Sinwar as a ‘megalomaniac’” over the course of the last year.

In his role as Hamas chief in Gaza, Sinwar masterminded Hamas’s October 7 assault on southern Israel. After Haniyeh was assassinated in July, Sinwar became the head of Hamas’s political bureau, consolidating his control of the terror group. Sinwar is believed to be hiding in Gaza’s labyrinth of underground tunnels. Last month, Sinwar allegedly sent letters to Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Houthis, and other Hamas supporters in which he expressed readiness to prosecute “a long war of attrition to break Israel’s will.”

Sinwar went silent in mid-September, fueling speculation that he may have been killed. However, he resurfaced in recent days and, according to some media accounts, reestablished contact with Qatari mediators.

Among Palestinians, public support for Hamas’s October 7 assault has likewise waned, Reuters reported on October 8, with some Gaza residents interviewed blaming Sinwar for failing to consider the destruction brought about by Israel’s response. An opinion poll of Gaza and West Bank residents published on September 17 by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) showed for the first time that the majority of Gazans opposed the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, with 57 percent responding that the attack was the wrong decision, compared to 39 percent who still expressed support for the attack — a dramatic decrease from PSR’s June poll. Support for the attack dropped for the first time in both the West Bank and Gaza, with 64 percent of respondents supporting the attack, compared to 73 percent in June.

Likewise, only 36 percent of Gazans said that they would support the continued rule of Hamas compared to 46 percent in June, opting instead for the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority.

Expert Analysis

“Behind Sinwar’s actions, there is a strategy. By greenlighting so-called martyrdom operations in Israel, Sinwar aimed to ignite a significant wave of terrorism designed to compel the Netanyahu government to capitulate to a ceasefire on Hamas’s terms. Whether it was an act of desperation or a calculated move by Sinwar, the outcome of his plan remains uncertain.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Yahya Sinwar is widely seen as an unpredictable and volatile figure. While reports from Gaza claim that the Hamas leader is surrounding himself with around 20 Israeli hostages as human shields, other accounts suggest that he has sought a ceasefire condition through mediators, demanding an Israeli guarantee for his own safety and passage out of Gaza. Though these reports remain unverified, they reveal much about Sinwar’s character — someone who has plunged millions of Gazans into a brutal conflict and now seeks personal escape without accountability. Sinwar is effectively a ‘dead man walking,’ and given Israel’s record, he will likely face the consequences for the October 7 attack sooner rather than later.” — Ahmad Sharawi, FDD Research Analyst

Related Analysis

“Hamas Leader Vows Terror Group Will Rise Again as October 7 Attack Loses Public Support in Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar Reportedly Resurfaces After Weeks of Silence,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamas Selects October 7 Terror Mastermind Yahya Sinwar as New Leader,” FDD Flash Brief