January 27, 2025 | Pacific Island Times

Who’s afraid of China? Palau inauguration calls bluff of ‘friends to all, enemies to none’

January 27, 2025 | Pacific Island Times

Who’s afraid of China? Palau inauguration calls bluff of ‘friends to all, enemies to none’

For all the regional talk of “Pacific family” and “friends to all enemies to none” who did – and who didn’t – show up for the Jan. 16 inauguration of Palau President Surangel S. Whipps Jr. and Vice President Raynold Oilouch tells a different story.

Palau recognizes Taiwan, and has been a consistent target of Beijing, including economic warfare, cyber attacks and Chinese-linked organized crime.

So showing up could risk the displeasure of China, both personally and professionally.  Which Pacific island countries and leaders care more about celebrating with their cousins than incurring the wrath of Beijing?  Let’s find out.

First, who else was there? 

In a sign of respect, Japan sent its foreign minister. 

Similarly, India sent a serious and well-received delegation, including Pabitra Margherita, minister of State for External Affairs, a first visit by an Indian MoS for External Affairs to Palau.

The foreign minister of Taiwan attended (as did a large Taiwanese business delegation).

One of the most closely watched dramas of the inauguration was who would have their photo taken with the foreign minister of Taiwan.  Whoever did was sure to be noted in Beijing.

This was dealt with quickly when– in one of the most geopolitically important and subtle moments of the event — the foreign minister of Taiwan sat flanked on one side by the foreign minister of Japan and the other by the MoS of India in full view of the cameras as they chatted warmly and animatedly. 

Also there were the leaders of the two other Pacific island countries that recognize Taiwan: Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine and Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo. 

In a solid statement of Pacific solidarity, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape also attended.  Marape is a Seventh-day Adventist, as is President Whipps, but his appearance was in keeping with his previous behavior as a leader who prioritizes regional relations and isn’t easily pushed around.  It’s worth remembering PNG has a larger population and land mass than New Zealand. 

Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero and Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Baron Waqa came to the inauguration event, too.

So, for those keeping count, not a single other Pacific island government leader attended except for from countries that recognize Taiwan and regional behemoth PNG.

The president of the neighboring country (and fellow Compact state), the Federated States of Micronesia, skipped the inauguration, sending his vice president, Aren Palik.

FSM recognizes China and suspicions were that Beijing didn’t want the president to attend, and he acquiesced – indicating Beijing’s hold over FSM. 

Australia has a resident Ambassador, who attended.  But the only one to come from Canberra was an Assistant Minster (remember Japan sent its Foreign Minister).

Also, congratulatory messages were read out during the inauguration, including from the Japanese emperor, the president of India, the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, the kings of the Netherlands, Belgium and others. But not many from the region.

Meanwhile, as an indication of some of the new interest in the Pacific islands, there was a broad range of diplomatic representation in attendance, including the special envoy of the UAE minister of foreign affairs to the Caribbean and Pacific States (who came in on his own plane) and ambassadors from Austria, Australia, Chile, Germany, Korea, Kosovo, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway, the Philippines, Serbia, Thailand, Vietnam and – announced to murmurs of the crowd – Russia.  

First, let’s start with the excuses.  It was four days before the U.S. inauguration and many of the top political players were about to be unemployed. Still, given the U.S. spent much of the Biden administration talking about how important the Pacific islands (and the Compact states in particular) are to the U.S. it was noted that the highest-ranking person from D.C. to attend was Carmen Cantor, the assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Insular Affairs.  She left her job a few days later.

Top-level regional U.S. military leaders (based a three-hour flight away) also didn’t attend. Reportedly, the commander of Task Force-Micronesia and the commander of Joint Region Marianas had been called to a meeting in Hawaii with the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.  All were no-shows.

And who signed the congratulatory letter from Washington? At this point, one might expect a note from President Biden but instead, it was Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.  

There are two major problems with this.  First, it signaled to all those there – who had made the effort to come – that the U.S. doesn’t take Palau as seriously as they do. 

Second, people from D.C. (and Pacific island leaders too scared to stand up to China) missed a chance for quiet high-level sidebar chats with key people like the foreign ministers of Japan and Taiwan, and the Indian delegation.  If you aren’t there, the conversations will happen without you.

The saving grace for the U.S. is there is an excellent U.S. ambassador in post – but it was a missed opportunity for D.C. to show respect for Palau, and a leader who worked hard to keep the Compact alive, and was just reelected by his fellow Palauans.  It will be noted, and mentioned, by those wishing to sow doubt about the U.S. commitment to the region.  

Given the hard work by many in the U.S. and Palau to build the relationship over the years it was, to say the least, unfortunate.  But, four days later, there was another inauguration, in another city, and time will tell if things will be different at the next Palauan inauguration.

Meanwhile, in the capitals around the Pacific that didn’t send their leaders without a good reason (Tonga, for example, was going through a change in government), one hopes there will be embarrassment the next time someone utters a platitude about “Pacific solidarity”, resisting foreign influence, and how it is Washington that pressuring the region and affecting cohesion. 

This was just a foretaste of what will happen with the next Pacific Islands Forum meeting in the Solomon Islands (which, of course didn’t attend the Inauguration in Palau). 

Lines are being drawn.  And they are being drawn by Beijing.  Well done PNG for ignoring them and showing the true Pacific Way.  2025 will show if more are willing to walk the talk of true sovereignty.

Cleo Paskal is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focusing on the Indo-Pacific region.

Issues:

Issues:

China India Indo-Pacific

Topics:

Topics:

Russia Washington China Joe Biden Germany Beijing United Arab Emirates India South Korea Japan Australia Taiwan Antony Blinken Netherlands Morocco Indo-Pacific Austria Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Belgium Norway Kosovo Cleo Paskal Thailand Serbia New Zealand Chile Marshall Islands Guam Hawaii Palau Solomon Islands Canberra Micronesia Caribbean Papua New Guinea Pacific Islands Forum Tonga Tuvalu