To defend Taiwan tomorrow, we must prepare to sanction China today 

Excerpt

Taiwan is reportedly considering a $15 billion military package as an overture to President-elect Trump. This comes just as the island nation agreed to spend over $2 billion in American weapons purchases next year. While agreements such as these may serve to warm relations with an incoming Trump administration and strengthen Taiwan’s military against an increasingly belligerent China, they will do little to address Beijing’s biggest vulnerability in a potential conflict with Taiwan —  its “soft economic underbelly.”

This provides President-elect Trump a historic opportunity to not just support Taiwan militarily, but to capitalize on the deepening cracks in China’s economy that make it vulnerable to powerful, proactively developed American economic statecraft. 

Slow growth, an unraveling real estate market, significant youth unemployment and plummeting foreign direct investment reveal deep vulnerabilities that threaten the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). These economic fissures give the United States and its allies a strategic opportunity: by publicly outlining the severe sanctions, export controls and investment restrictions China would face if it invades Taiwan, we can slow the pace of Chinese hostilities toward Taiwan — or even prevent them altogether. However, to ensure this approach succeeds, we must learn from recent history and act before it’s too late. 

Max Meizlish is a senior research analyst for the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He previously worked as a sanctions enforcement officer at the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. Elaine Dezenski is senior director and head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. She previously served as deputy and acting assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Homeland Security.