Hezbollah’s credibility dilemma amid escalation

Hezbollah is trying to save face 201 days into the conflict with Israel.

Hezbollah joined in the Hamas attacks after October 7, essentially trying to open a limited two-front war with Israel. This has now stretched on longer than Hezbollah had likely anticipated. The Iranian-backed terrorist group has lost hundreds of its fighters, many of whom are difficult to replace.

The group has a large arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones. However, Hezbollah is also “too big to fail” in the Iranian proxy context. Iran cannot afford to bring it into the conflict, lest it be destroyed. On the other hand, Iran wants to keep it like a sword of Damacles – hanging forever over Israel, threatening, but not falling on Israel.

This presents a dilemma. Unleash Hezbollah, and it will have shot its bolt. But if Iran keeps Hezbollah there, it will forever wait and engage in limited war games. This is likely in Iran’s interest. It wants to change the equation with Israel. It wants to forever attack Israel with impunity from multiple fronts. It aims to slowly weaken Israel.

Hezbollah has other interests. It continues to escalate its attacks on Israel. On April 23, it targeted areas along the coast near Acre with drones, setting off alarms that forced around a quarter million Israelis to seek shelter. It also claimed numerous attacks on Israel on April 24. Israel has responded with numerous attacks.

The rules of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict 

Hezbollah, Iran, and the region see the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel as functioning along certain guidelines or “rules.” Al-Ain media in the Gulf questioned whether the exchange of fire on April 24 could possibly be lifting the curtain on a change in this equation. “Have the rules of engagement collapsed?” the Gulf-based online magazine wondered.

“Hezbollah has intensified its targeting of military sites since last week,” the report noted. “Wednesday’s strikes came the day after an Israeli bombing targeted towns in southern Lebanon, resulting in the killing of two civilians from one family,” it claimed.

Israel said it struck a key Hezbollah commander whom Al-Ain referred to as “Hezbollah missile unit engineer Hussein Azqul.”

The last several days also saw the deaths of two more members of the Hezbollah Radwan force. This brings the total Hezbollah death toll to at least 252. Last week, Hezbollah also wounded 14 Israeli soldiers and several civilians in an attack on Arab al-Aramshe on the border.

The question on Wednesday, April 24, regarding the escalation was whether the rules of engagement had indeed changed. Is the conflict potentially entering a new phase? Iran will want to keep the Hezbollah powder reasonably dry until Israel launches an operation in Rafah. This is because Iran always wants to have the option to open a two-front war against Israel. Iran uses Hezbollah as a deterrent against Israeli military action. However, a deterrent force only works if it remains a force. Weakness undermines its effectiveness. Hezbollah must remain strong in its position in order to fulfill the role Iran wants it to fulfill.

In this regard, Hezbollah faces other challenges. It has to balance its daily attacks on Israel with its interests in Lebanon. Many Lebanese do not like Hezbollah. Unlike Hamas, which had complete and total control over Gaza and was empowered by backing from Western allies in Doha and Ankara, Hezbollah does not have key Western allies in its corner. Hezbollah is thus weaker than Hamas in some respects. For instance, its leaders don’t reside in Doha or fly to Turkey and Iran so easily. Hezbollah has local Shi’ite constituents and must navigate Lebanon’s complex sectarian political landscape. Hamas, by contrast, controls Gaza at the street level and has deep tentacles within international organizations that work in Gaza. Hezbollah has deep tentacles in Lebanon, but they must be balanced against other factors.

Hezbollah will need to consider this as it weighs escalation against Israel. Israel has previously stated that Hezbollah should focus on Gaza as a signal to Beirut, indicating that Israel is ready in the north. Hezbollah has been watching Gaza drag on. This may empower it. But it has also seen some of its key commanders eliminated over the past six months.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.