Worried about an Iranian attack? That’s exactly what it wants

A week of Iran’s threats to attack Israel has caused social media to lurch from one theory to another about when Iran’s supposed attack may come. Iran has threatened to “punish” Israel since it accused Israel of an April 1 strike on Damascus that killed a key IRGC commander.

On the evening of April 10, there were rumors that Iran had closed its airspace and told commercial flights to avoid Tehran. There were also stories about Iran testing a missile near Qom and that it was activating new air defenses. Hen, there were more rumors about how Iran would carry out its strike at exactly 1:20 am because this is when the US killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport in 2020.

There was more scrambling as well. Iran’s Foreign Minister called counterparts in Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.  clearly, this was the prelude to Iran’s claims it would attack Israel. Iran’s own Fars News media on April 11 made the calls seem routine.

Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan held a telephone conversation on Wednesday during which they stressed the necessity of continued consultations between Tehran and Riyadh over bilateral ties and regional and international developments,” Fars News said.

The Iranian top diplomat also called UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.  The Iranian diplomat referred to the continuation of Israeli crimes in the month of Ramadan, especially during Eid Al-Fitr, against the fasting Palestinian people in the blockaded territory and the West Bank,” Fars News said. Mir Abdollahian called Fuad Hussein and Hakan Fidan in Iraq and Turkey.

Analyzing Iran’s strategic maneuvering

On the one hand, the Iranian foreign minister is working overtime. He had been in Oman and Syria over the last seven days. He has been making a lot of phone calls.  However, the Iranian foreign minister is rarely aware of Iran’s military plans in advance. Iran’s former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, was often cut out of whatever the IRGC and the military brass were planning.

It could be that the current top diplomat has been made aware that Iran intends to make a big move this week.  It is less likely he knows much about it, and more likely he has been told to shore up some things with his counterparts and hear them out regarding US views on Iran’s actions. The US is also making a full-court press not to have Iran respond and plunge the region into more escalation.

Therefore, the real story of Iran in the last few days has been that it wants to test Israel and also see Israel’s response. Iran has increasingly sought to threaten Eilat using Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, for instance.  These groups have made numerous claims of using drones to target Eilat and also to target other areas of Israel.  In addition, Iran puts out different pieces of propaganda about its alleged threats to Israel, including videos that circulate online that Iran will target “Haifa airport.”

Which airport exactly? It is a very famous Israeli airport in Haifa. the Iraqi militias also claim to have targeted this airport. How do Iran and its militias invent stories about this? Because it has to invent stories about something that gives it plausible deniability and cannot be verified.

It may well come to pass that Iran and its militias attempt to target Israel. Iran has built this up over the last week, so climbing down now would make it look weak.  However, Iran also likes to sow confusion, and this is one of the modus operandi of Iran.

It is important to understand that Iran is excellent at the rumor game and that its media and propaganda arms and various social media accounts in the region, as well as accounts on Telegram and elsewhere, know how to operationalize information and use it as a psychological weapon. 

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.