Iran is watching Israel’s next Gaza move carefully

Iran has been watching Israel’s next moves in Gaza and the region carefully. Iran has vowed revenge for an airstrike in Damascus on April 1 that killed a top IRGC commander. However, even as Iran vows revenge, it is also weighing its options. “Speaking among reporters on Monday, General Mousavi said the Israeli government lives on the continuation of war so that any halt to the conflict in Gaza will lead to the fall of Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet,” Fars News in Iran said on April 8. The report is one of several about Israel and Gaza that have appeared in Iranian media.

The messaging from Iran is clear. Iran wants to know whether Israel is repositioning forces and whether the withdrawal from Khan Yunis is merely a prelude to another stage. For instance, pro-government in Iran also claimed that Israel has no “exit strategy in Gaza” and that Israel has “no real plan for the future.” Iran may be reporting accurately on Israel and Gaza in this case, but it’s also interesting that the same Iranian media that sometimes provides an accurate assessment also sometimes is very careful with its wording. This means one can read Iranian reports as either an assessment of what Iran’s regime is actually thinking or a message on what they will do or how they believe reality to be.

For instance, Mousavi has also said that Israel has “left no stone unturned” in the Gaza war and that Israel has full US support. “But to no avail,” Mousavi claims. “General Mousavi added the Israeli army was supposed to destroy the Palestinian movement of Hamas and free Israeli hostages in Gaza, but they have achieved nothing.”

Does Iran believe this? Will this embolden its use of Hezbollah to attack Israel? Will it push Iraqi militias also to carry out more threats.

Iranian threats to Israel on Syrian and Lebanese fronts

Iran’s foreign minister flew to Damascus on Monday. This could also foreshadow escalation in Syria. Iran has vowed revenge for the airstrike on the Iranian consulate compound, which Iran blames on Israel. Iran could be sending the foreign minister as a curtain raiser to escalation. At the same time, on Monday, Iran’s Tasnim News said, once again, that Iran would carry out an attack on Israel. At a speech in southwestern Iran, an IRGC official threatened Israel.

Lebanon’s Hassan Nasrallah is also making moves as Iran continues the saber-rattling. Nasrallah put out a statement on Monday in which he spoke about Iran’s “support for the resistance and announced that the presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria and Lebanon dates back to 1982 and after. It comes back from Israel’s aggression to Lebanon,” he claimed. This links how Hezbollah grew out of Israeli aggression with how Hamas is also “resisting” Israel in Gaza.

Nasrallah and Iran may believe Hamas will emerge more powerful out of this week. Nasrallah also noted how, after “the invasion of the Zionist enemy in Lebanon, the IRGC forces were deployed to help fight against The invaders who came to Lebanon and Syria. At that time, Iranian forces came to the Al-Zabadani region in Syria, but after evaluating the situation, it was decided that a group of IRGC officers and staff would remain to activate the national resistance, transfer experiences, provide advice, training, and logistical support.”

This is important; it illustrates how Iran helped create Hezbollah’s power from the beginning. This also may be a way for Iranian media to emphasize their support for Hamas without directly noting it. Iran uses Hezbollah to say things that it might rather not say, for instance. Nasrallah “clarified that with the escalation of events in Syria, Iranian military advisers were also present with the resistance factions. This is despite the fact that the presence of military advisers in the Iranian consulate in Damascus is a natural thing, and targeting them is the highest Israeli aggression of its kind in Syria in recent years,” Tasnim News noted. This message is clear. Iran could try to use Hezbollah to threaten Israel now, in the wake of the Damascus airstrike. Many cards are now in play, and the chessboard is being re-arranged.

Iran is watching Israel’s moves closely after the withdrawal of the 98th Division and the 7th Armored Brigade from Khan Yunis. Iran is also pushing Hezbollah to be its mouthpiece in discussions about Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.