Tehran predicts Russia-China-Iran triangle of power – analysis

Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing met on Monday with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber in Shanghai. Mokhber was in Shanghai to participate in the China International Import Expo.

Guoqing is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Beijing media outlets reported. Iran views this trip as important in its effort to circumvent the West via closer ties and trade with China.

The meeting came as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Central Asia. He arrived at Tajikistan’s Dushanbe International Airport on Wednesday for a one-day visit to meet key officials, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported.

Iran opened a drone factory in Tajikistan last May, and it supplies Russia with kamikaze drones, but there has been no confirmation that those drones are made in Tajikistan. In 2019, then-president Hassan Rouhani attended a meeting in Dushanbe for the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia.

In addition, Iran’s Maj.-Gen. Yahya Safavi, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), gave a speech in Rasht, Iran, about new Iranian investment in naval power and air power.

“The Sea of Oman and the Persian Gulf, which is a branch of the Indian Ocean, connect a new maritime continental territory with the participation of Asian powers such as China, India, and Russia, as well as the formation of Asian and Eurasian powers in the cooperation structure of Shanghai [SCO] and BRICS,” Iran’s pro-regime Tasnim News Agency quoted him as saying.

What is Iran’s goal in strengthening its relationship with China and Russia?

The report characterized Safavi as spelling out an Iran-Russia-China “triangle” that will confront the US. He referenced confronting the US and its allies in the maritime domain. Iran has a small navy, but it has invested in drones and missiles, including naval-based missiles.

Of more interest, the Iranian military fixture sketched out a “China Corridor” that stretches from China via Iran to Iraq, Syria, and the Mediterranean “in 3 directions, Kermanshah to Baghdad, Khorramshahr to Basra, and Kurdistan to Sulaymaniyah.”

Safavi mentioned the historic city of Sarakhs, which was once a stopping point on the Silk Road. He discussed this within the context of linking an east-west route and a north-south route. Iran is allocating billions of dollars to build this infrastructure.

“The increasing development of technology today has led the military forces to strengthen their technological capabilities,” Safavi said.

At the same time, the head of the IRGC’s naval arm also praised new technologies for the navy that will be able to threaten other countries. In addition, Tasnim praised new satellite capabilities.

Iran is clearly focusing east on China and Asia as Israel fights in Gaza. Tehran wants to come out of the next few years with newfound power in the region.

Hamas is a pawn of Iran, and the larger picture is Tehran’s desire to use the east-west trade route to dominate Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as to increase its maritime power, with the support of China and Russia. This is part of the new world order that Iran wants to achieve with its new partners.

Seth J. Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow and The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.