Expert Panel Says ‘Imminent’ Famine in Gaza Never Materialized

Latest Developments

The panel of food security experts whose assessment last March of an “imminent” famine in northern Gaza was widely reported have now concluded that it never materialized. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) — a partnership of governments, UN agencies, and NGOs — released an updated analysis confirming that increased shipments of food to northern Gaza averted starvation. “These appear to have temporarily alleviated conditions in the northern governorates,” the report stated, without acknowledging Israel’s role in boosting the supply of aid. “In this context, the available evidence does not indicate that famine is currently occurring.”

While 96 percent of Gazans still face “high levels of acute food insecurity,” according to the report, the IPC noted that conditions in Gaza as a whole have improved substantially compared to its March forecast. The IPC employs a five-phase scale to rate the severity of food shortages, with “Phase 1” indicating no shortages and “Phase 5” signifying “catastrophe/famine.” In March, the IPC projected that half of Gaza’s population would be in Phase 5 by the end of July, with another 38 percent in Phase 4. Its latest report found that 15 percent of Gaza is currently in Phase 5, 29 percent in Phase 4, and a slight majority of 51 percent in Phase 3, defined as “Crisis.” This represents a substantial improvement over conditions observed in March, not just avoidance of a worst-case scenario.

Expert Analysis

“After months of hearing that Israel was blocking the delivery of sufficient aid to Gaza, we now see that Israeli authorities facilitated a massive increase in shipments of both aid and commercial goods, alleviating shortages in Gaza while Israeli forces continued to prosecute the war against Hamas. This is a decisive rebuke to malicious claims that Israel was using starvation as a weapon of war against the people of Gaza.” — David Adesnik, FDD Senior Fellow and Director of Research

“Israel has surged humanitarian assistance into Gaza even as Hamas continues launching deadly rockets from universities, schools, and other civilian areas into Israel, while holding eight Americans and more than 100 others as hostages. Gaza is no picnic, but reporters should take Hamas-backed statistics, often parroted by UN officials, with a grain of salt. Instead, those who want to end the war should direct their ire at Hamas, which must be held accountable for stealing aid meant for Gazans, and pressure the terrorist group to unconditionally end its savagery.” — Toby Dershowitz, Managing Director of FDD Action

False Claims of Famine and War Crimes

In early May, even after the UN reported a substantial increase in the number of aid shipments arriving in Gaza, the head of the UN’s World Food Program, Cindy McCain, declared that a “full-blown famine” had begun in northern Gaza and was making its way southward. Additionally, Samantha Power, the head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, testified before Congress in April that she had received credible reports of famine in Gaza.

In March, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also contended that a famine was underway while condemning Israel for using starvation “as a weapon of war.” Similarly, when Karim Khan, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, applied for warrants for the arrests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the first charge he listed was “Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime.”

U.S. media dedicated extensive coverage of forecasts of famine and accusations of war crimes, but rarely noted the evidence of increased aid flows. Initial coverage of the new IPC report indicates a similar focus on the negative. One early report carried the headline, “Half a million face starvation in Gaza, report says,” while noting only in passing that previous forecasts of famine never materialized.

Related Analysis

“Expert Panel Rejects Claims of Famine in Northern Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief

“Terrorists Attack U.S. Pier Under Construction Off Gaza Coast,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel Increases Humanitarian Aid Transfers to Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief