Blinken Renews Push for Ceasefire Deal Following Sinwar’s Death

Latest Developments

Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli leaders on October 22 in his latest attempt at achieving a ceasefire in Gaza along with the release of the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas. According to a State Department readout of his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blinken called for Israel to “capitalize” on its “successful action to bring the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar” — who was killed during an Israel Defense Forces operation last week — “to justice by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”

Blinken also called on Israel to take additional steps to increase the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza. He urged Lebanon and Israel to reach a “diplomatic solution” to end the conflict between the Jewish state and Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, citing the need for full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates the removal of Hezbollah from the south of the country.

Blinken has led multiple failed efforts to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that would include the release of the remaining hostages — estimated to be around 101, with many believed to no longer be alive — in return for a pause and eventual end to hostilities.

According to Axios, the new director of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Hassan Rashad, presented Israeli Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar with a proposal for a “small” Gaza ceasefire deal to jumpstart negotiations during a meeting between the two officials in Cairo on October 20. The deal would involve the release of six hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a two-week pause in fighting that would build momentum for continued negotiations toward a more comprehensive agreement.

Expert Analysis

“Israel’s successes against Hamas and Hezbollah on the battlefield should encourage Secretary Blinken to amend his plans to reflect these developments. Washington should switch from de-escalation plans to longer lasting arrangements that guarantee Israel’s security, independent of the will and wishes of the Iran-backed militias in Gaza and Lebanon.” — Hussain Abdul-Hussain, FDD Research Fellow

“Talk of ceasefires in Gaza and diplomatic solutions in Lebanon are premature, misplaced, and — if implemented now — will only lead to Hamas and Hezbollah’s revival. Sinwar’s elimination was a necessary and critical step towards defeating Hamas, but it is not sufficient — and that task continues to require a slow erosion process. As for Lebanon, there are no actors in the country who can be relied upon to rein in and disarm the remnants of Hezbollah, which also remains far from defeat.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

Related Analysis

“How the U.S. Should Respond to the Death of Yahya Sinwar,” by Jonathan Schanzer and Natalie Ecanow

“November Ceasefire in Gaza Collapsed After Hamas Lied About Female Hostages,” FDD Flash Brief

“Blinken Departs Middle East Without Ceasefire Deal,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamas Shuns New Talks on Gaza Ceasefire,” FDD Flash Brief