You Probably Have the Iran War Backward

Excerpt

Two major reports on the war with Iran this month likely gave readers the impression that the Islamic Republic has eluded America’s attempts to contain it, thwarting both the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and economic sanctions. A Sept. 1 Reuters report asserted that the blockade, by stopping Iranian crude, is succeeding “where years of sanctions failed,” while a Sept. 10 Journal report raised doubt that the blockade has worked, given that Iran has been able to resume assembling ballistic missiles. But this gets the war backward—and therefore misses an important opening for Washington to potentially break Tehran.

The war is a story of the sanctions’ success enabling military victories, which have in turn allowed the U.S. to put acute pressure on the Iranian economy. Years of economic isolation left Iran unable to contest its own skies when Israel and the U.S. attacked on Feb. 28. Nearly 900 U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Iranian targets in the war’s first 12 hours. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior commanders and officials, including the armed forces’ chief of staff, died in the opening wave. Israel claimed air superiority within a day and the destruction of some 85% of Iran’s air defenses within three weeks. That speed of domination was possible only because sanctions had previously denied Iran the capital, technology and parts that a modern, capable defense requires.

Mr. Maleki is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He served as a senior sanctions official at the Treasury Department, 2017-25.