Iran’s Cyber Retaliation Strategy

Excerpt

Iran is trying to turn off the water taps across the Persian Gulf region and in the United States. Washington is determined to stop the sabotage, partly through sanctions. The US Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast to isolate the Islamic Republic of Iran’s economy with sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels. The targets included five members of a group directed by Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence that “is responsible for extensive compromises of US critical infrastructure and financially motivated cyber theft.”

The announcement came roughly a month after Iranian hackers reportedly carried out cyberattacks on water and wastewater systems across as many as 12 states, disrupting remote-control capabilities and water-pressure systems. US government agencies had warned in April of an “urgent and ongoing” threat from an Iran-affiliated campaign targeting American infrastructure, including water facilities.

In the current conflict with the United States, Tehran has tried to bring maximum pressure to bear on Washington in both the cyber and kinetic realms. Cyber operations are part of Tehran’s playbook, and Washington needs ways to impose costs on the actors ordering and carrying them out beyond sanctions and prosecutions.

Distance changes Tehran’s weapons, not its target set. Cyber operations let Iran reach American critical infrastructure that lies beyond the range of its missiles and drones, unlike US allies in the Persian Gulf who are reachable by kinetic means.

Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), focusing on Iranian proxies, specifically Iraqi militias and the Houthis. Janatan Sayeh is the Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.