Denied Syrian Foothold, Turkey Could Harass Israel at Sea

As Israel moves to prevent Turkish military encroachment in neighboring Syria, officials are bracing for Ankara to shift pressure to the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey remains a member of NATO, and such an aggressive stance by a member of the alliance could threaten freedom of navigation and bring two U.S. allies into direct confrontation.

Turkey Could Treat Israel as It Does Greece

Following Israel’s August 17 bombing of a shuttered northern Syrian airbase where Turkey reportedly planned to deploy troops, Jerusalem is concerned Ankara may pursue a “harassment policy” in the eastern Mediterranean, according to Amir Bar-Shalom, military editor for Israel’s Army Radio.

That could include Turkish warships shadowing Israeli vessels or Turkish aircraft deliberately intruding into Israeli Air Force operating areas over international waters, Bar-Shalom said on August 23. He compared such tactics to longstanding Turkish pressure against Greece in the Aegean.

Separately, Giora Eiland, a retired Israeli general and former national security adviser, warned that Turkey could even threaten a naval blockade of Israel, which conducts roughly 98 percent of its international trade by sea.

Eiland said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might seek to justify such a move as retaliation for Israel’s blockade of Gaza, whose Palestinians — and Hamas leadership — he has long championed.

History of Harassment

The threat is not new. In 2011, Erdogan threatened to provide Turkish naval escorts to activists attempting to breach Israel’s Gaza blockade.

More recently, Israel’s Channel 12 reported in June that four Turkish destroyers had approached Israeli naval vessels participating in a maritime exercise with Greece and Cyprus.

Turkish warplanes have also been active over Syria, while Ankara has twice denied its airspace to Israeli President Isaac Herzog during planned official travel to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Caution Is Needed To Avoid Larger Conflict

Washington should caution, not coddle, President Erdogan — especially if he sees Israel’s election season as an opportunity to test its resolve.

Israel has a strong interest in preventing an increasingly hostile Turkey from establishing a military foothold in Syria, directly on its northern approaches. It has an even more fundamental interest in preserving freedom of navigation in the Mediterranean — an interest shared by Greece and Cyprus, which have long confronted Turkish maritime pressure.

Turkey possesses one of NATO’s largest navies. Erdogan may also recognize the political vulnerability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition as Israel approaches its October 27 election. If Ankara concludes that this is an opportunity to flex its muscles across what it calls its “Blue Homeland,” the consequences could be dangerous.

After almost three years of costly combat, Israel has dismantled much of the Iranian proxy network that once threatened it from neighboring states. It is unlikely to tolerate the emergence of a Turkish pressure campaign at sea.

The ham-handed response of Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, following last week’s Israeli strike in Syria risked aggravating an incident that might otherwise have passed quietly. The Trump administration should impose greater message discipline on its envoy while making clear to Ankara that maritime harassment of Israel would be unacceptable.

What Erdogan may regard as Ottoman-style power projection could be perceived in Jerusalem as a direct threat to Israel’s security and economic lifelines. From there, the distance to an armed confrontation could become dangerously short.

Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Mark and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Mark on X @mdubowitz. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.