Central Asia’s Power Needs Are an Opportunity for Washington

Blackouts across Central Asia should be a light-bulb moment for Washington as it seeks to diversify critical-mineral supply chains.

An August 14 blackout across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and parts of Uzbekistan underscored the region’s need for new electricity infrastructure. Mining and processing critical minerals require reliable power, which Central Asia’s strained grids cannot provide at scale. By supporting the buildout, Washington could diversify U.S. supply chains while limiting adversarial influence.

Demand Is Outgrowing Central Asia’s Power System

The August 14 outage disrupted transportation, telecommunications, traffic lights, and water supplies. It followed a similar regional blackout in January 2022. The recurrence exposed the strain on an interconnected power system that still depends heavily on aging Soviet-era infrastructure. The World Bank estimates that regional electricity demand could triple by 2050 as Central Asia’s population, cities, and industries expand.

Kazakhstan intends to add more than 26 gigawatts of generating capacity by 2035. Uzbekistan aims to generate 54 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2030 while expanding hydropower and developing its first nuclear plant. Kyrgyzstan’s energy program through 2035 prioritizes new generation and grid modernization, including the planned 1.86-gigawatt Kambarata-1 hydropower plant. Tajikistan hopes its new 3.78-gigawatt Rogun hydropower plant will reduce shortages and increase electricity exports.

Reliable electricity would help the region extract and process its significant reserves of critical minerals — a priority of the C5+1, a diplomatic framework combining the five Central Asian states and the United States, which seeks to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies. A March 2026 assessment by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found that regional grids cannot support a substantial expansion in mineral production without new power plants and upgraded high-voltage transmission. Development of Central Asian electricity infrastructure could also bolster transit on the Trans-Caspian Corridor, designed to facilitate East-West trade while bypassing Russia and Iran.

Russia and China Are Capitalizing on Central Asia’s Power Needs

While Western institutions currently finance parts of Central Asia’s power expansion, this support has not produced a major U.S. commercial role and covers only part of the region’s planned buildout. The World Bank is supporting Rogun, Uzbekistan’s distribution modernization, and regional electricity connectivity, while European lenders have proposed substantial financing for Kambarata-1. But Rogun still requires several billion dollars to complete, Uzbekistan has secured only a fraction of the $3 billion needed to modernize its distribution system, and financing for Kambarata-1 is not finalized.

Absent greater Western involvement, state-backed firms from Russia, China, and Iran could fill the gap. In May 2026, Kazakhstan, which plans to build three to four nuclear power plants by 2050, handed Russia’s Rosatom a $16.5 billion agreement to build the first one. Astana selected China National Nuclear Corporation to lead construction of the second and third plants. In June, Rosatom began construction on a Russian-financed nuclear facility that could eventually provide around 15 percent of Uzbekistan’s electricity. Because nuclear plants require decades of maintenance and fuel supplies, these agreements will give Moscow and Beijing enduring roles in critical regional infrastructure.

For its part, Iran has secured a foothold in Tajikistan’s power sector, with Iranian company Sangtuda Sangob financing most of the 220-megawatt Sangtuda-2 hydropower plant, which it will manage through 2032. Iranian contractors are also involved in parts of the Rogun hydropower project.

Washington Should Secure a Foothold in Central Asia’s Power Sector

The United States has an economic and strategic imperative for greater engagement in Central Asia’s energy development. Washington should use its existing programs, financing mechanisms, and diplomatic channels — including the U.S.-Uzbekistan Joint investment platform, which brings together the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM); the Foundational Infrastructure for the Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) civil-nuclear program in Kazakhstan; and the C5+1 — to secure a meaningful U.S. role in future power projects. Working with allies and international lenders, the Trump administration should mobilize financing and U.S. technology for electricity generation, grid modernization, storage, and cross-border transmission.

A stronger American presence would offer alternatives to adversary suppliers and provide the reliable electricity needed to expand mineral production and processing, allowing more Central Asian minerals to reach Western markets through the Trans-Caspian Corridor.

Keti Korkiya is a research analyst in the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Keti and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.