The Race to Build America and Israel’s Missile Defenses

The U.S. ceasefire with Iran may be about to end – or not. Ceasefires, regardless of their length, are often much more than simply a pause in combat. Unfortunately, they are also often a starting gun for a competitive sprint in which the combatants seek to rearm for the next conflict. The side that makes better use of the ceasefire can lose fewer lives in the next conflict.

When the war erupted on February 28, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles across the region. The Israel Defense Forces intercepted around 90% of those fired toward Israel. The U.S. and its Gulf partners intercepted “1,700 ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones,” Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on April 8.

Preventing those missiles from hitting their targets required an enormous quantity of expensive and advanced air defense interceptors.

When interceptions fail, the costs can be serious. Six U.S. service members were killed on March 1 in Kuwait when an Iranian drone hit their command center. An Iranian missile hit a residential building in the Israeli city of Haifa on April 5, killing four people and injuring approximately 10 others.

The fight for the skies over the Middle East could resume sooner rather than later. That is why the United States and Israel must sprint to replenish their stockpiles of munitions, particularly counter-drone munitions, and ballistic missile defense interceptors.

For the United States, with respect to ballistic missile defense, that means expediting, prioritizing, and expanding efforts to increase the production capacity and inventories of Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD), and Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) interceptors. Israel, for its part, must focus on expanding production capacity and rebuilding inventories for Arrow and David’s Sling missile defense systems.

To its credit, Israel announced plans earlier this month for a “major additional acceleration of Arrow interceptor production.” Israel is partnering with a U.S.-based manufacturer in the effort. 

Those efforts are vital, but they are not sufficient and will take years to yield their full benefits.

In the meantime, Israel has a surprising, not-so-new missile defense asset: Iron Dome.

Part of the lower tier of Israel’s air and missile defense system, Iron Dome was designed to intercept rockets, artillery, mortars, and some drones. By 2020, it proved able to intercept some cruise missiles. But it was certainly never intended to intercept ballistic missiles.

Nonetheless, multiple videos from the past year of conflict in the Middle East appear to show Iron Dome intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles. Trackers posted footage of several apparent ballistic missile interceptions during the day and night of March 11. This appears to demonstrate that the system can, to some degree, complement Israel’s other ballistic missile defenses. While not capable of replacing higher-tier systems, such as Arrow and the mid-tier David’s Sling, Iron Dome’s last-ditch capability to intercept some ballistic missiles saves lives and is an unexpected boon for Israel’s missile defenses.

Iron Dome interceptors are also much less expensive. While the exact prices are not disclosed and change over time, Iron Dome interceptors are estimated to cost $100,000 to $200,000 each, while Arrow 3 is estimated to cost around $4 million per interceptor.

The United States and Israel should pool their extensive engineering and scientific resources to explore ways to increase the ability of existing systems to target a wider array of threats.

Based on lessons from the war with Iran and growing threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, the United States needs to dramatically strengthen the capability and capacity of its multi-tiered regional and homeland defenses against missiles and a range of next generation threats. In these efforts, America’s allies can help.

Gen. Michael Guetlein, the U.S. Space Force officer leading efforts to strengthen America’s homeland defenses, said in April 15 congressional testimony that air and missile defense cooperation with Israel has resulted in “significant lessons over time” for the United States.

It remains to be seen whether diplomacy will succeed and whether the current ceasefire holds and endures. If past is prologue, however, we should assume that conflict with Iran may resume sooner or later.

When that happens, Americans and Israelis will be glad they sprinted to strengthen their air and missile defenses.

Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Jonathan Schanzer is executive director.