Will NATO’s Downing of an Iranian Ballistic Missile Over Turkey Shift Ankara’s Stance?

NATO forces intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile inside Turkish airspace on March 4 —the first instance of NATO territory receiving incoming fire from the Islamic Republic since conflict began on February 28.

If the missile was deliberately intended to strike Turkish soil, then expectations that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would not risk targeting a NATO ally’s home soil can be dispensed with, providing grounds for escalation and increased alliance involvement in the conflict.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has already dismissed speculation that the incident may trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Nonetheless, Ankara has the right to invoke Article 4, which allows for consultations between NATO members if any of them believe that “the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”  

Conflicting Claims on Iran’s Intended Target

The ballistic missile’s unclear reported flight path before it was downed over Hatay Province, which borders Syria, makes its intended target ambiguous amid conflicting reports. Interception debris landed near Dortyol, about 45 miles east of Incirlik Air Base, a major NATO military installation hosting a significant number of U.S. servicemembers and American nuclear weapons. A potential strike on Incirlik would raise alarm across NATO given its strategic importance, hence alliance spokeswoman Allison Hart’s firm condemnation of the missile attack.

Also within range of Iranian ballistic missiles are the British Royal Air Force bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia in Cyprus. Iranian-made Shahed drones previously targeted and struck Akrotiri on March 2, which Cypriot officials assessed was likely the work of Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. Anonymous Turkish officials have claimed the missile was intended to strike a base in Cyprus, denying any intended target on Turkish soil.

Turkish Leadership Continues Hedging After Missile Interception

Ankara has hitherto been accommodating toward the Islamic Republic, in stark contrast to the Arab states now dealing with continual Iranian strikes. Turkish leaders opposed military action targeting Iran and made strenuous efforts to jump-start negotiations after U.S. naval assets began converging in the Middle East in late January. When the American and Israeli strikes on Iran began, the Turkish government quickly announced it would not allow use of Turkish airspace for operations.

Turkey has refrained from any serious condemnation of Iran’s conduct since conflict broke out, although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chided Iran, America, and Israel for their respective strikes. Erdogan even expressed sorrow over the elimination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Burhanettin Duran, the Turkish presidency’s communications director, issued a mild response to the missile incident, urging that combatants act “with a sense of responsibility,” but not expressing anger with Iran.

Iran’s escalatory move against Turkey is an opportunity for Washington. Whether the missile was intended to strike Turkey is immaterial: the act was a violation of Turkey’s airspace, and the projectile was downed in the vicinity of a NATO installation hosting U.S. nuclear weapons.

Washington Must Bring Turkey on Board

The Trump administration should use this opportunity to demand that Ankara take a clear stance against the Islamic regime. It should also urge the termination of the material support Ankara provides to Iran’s Palestinian proxy, Hamas. As Turkey is a strategic ally of the United States and a member of NATO, Washington should demand more active engagement from its government in supporting Washington’s efforts to bring down Tehran’s Islamist regime.

This could be achieved by Turkey opening its airspace and allowing use of existing U.S. bases in the country for operations against Iran, while Washington could assist in protecting Turkish airspace by deploying Patriot missile systems inside Turkey.

Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where William Doran is an intern. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Sinan on X @SinanCiddi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.