Backing the Tehran Regime’s Survival, Turkey Condemns U.S. Strikes on Iran

Within hours of the launch of U.S. and Israeli combat operations targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly condemned both the offensive and Tehran’s retaliation. The following day, Erdogan expressed his “sadness” at the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and offered his “condolences” to the people of Iran. His reaction underscores Ankara’s long-standing preference for the survival of Iran’s Islamist regime and its opposition to the emergence of a democratic, Western-aligned government in Tehran.

Since the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters began in December 2025, Ankara has conspicuously avoided criticism of Tehran. In January 2026, Erdogan went further, congratulating Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for his “handling” of the unrest — echoing Tehran’s narrative that the demonstrations were foreign-backed “terrorist” plots linked to Israel. Rather than standing with the Iranian people, Erdogan has worked to delay or prevent U.S. and Israeli military action, citing concerns about “regional instability.” In practice, this posture has functioned as a diplomatic shield for the regime.

Ankara’s objective is strategic. A weakened but intact Islamist regime in Tehran better serves Erdogan’s regional ambitions than a democratic Iran aligned with the West. The Islamic Republic’s survival ensures the continued operation of its terrorist proxy network — including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza — which directly targets Israel. This aligns with Erdogan’s sustained hostility toward Israel, particularly following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks. Turkey has provided political and material support to Hamas since 2011, reinforcing Ankara’s broader campaign to undermine Israeli security.

Ankara’s Diplomatic Lifeline for Tehran

Ahead of the February 28 strikes, Turkey joined several Arab states in offering to mediate a “diplomatic solution” between Washington and Tehran. The proposed framework would have capped uranium enrichment, limited ballistic missile development, and paused weapons transfers to proxy groups. Notably, it would not have dismantled Iran’s nuclear infrastructure nor addressed the regime’s domestic repression. Instead, it would have preserved regime stability — enabling Tehran to weather external pressure and potentially outlast the Trump administration.

Turkey’s Refusal To Support U.S. Action

Ankara has made clear it will not assist U.S. efforts to dismantle the Islamic Republic. Turkey has reportedly denied U.S. forces access to its air, land, and maritime space for operations against Iran and declined broader logistical cooperation. This posture is in profound tension with Turkey’s status as a NATO member and a purported U.S. strategic ally.

Washington should respond with clarity. If Ankara seeks to retain the privileges of alliance — including defense cooperation and political standing within NATO — it must demonstrate alignment on core security interests. That includes ending diplomatic cover for Tehran and terminating support for Hamas. The United States should insist that Turkey choose whether it stands with the transatlantic alliance or with the Islamist regimes and proxy networks that threaten regional stability.

Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Sinan and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Sinan on X @SinanCiddi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.