Without Full Disarmament of Hamas, Gaza Ceasefire is at Risk

The latest efforts by the U.S. to secure the ceasefire in Gaza may not only permit Hamas to survive but also to retain some of its weapons.

According to reports on February 10, the terrorist organization could still be armed under future phases of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan. The U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing the ceasefire’s implementation would require Hamas to surrender “all weapons … capable of striking Israel,” while allowing the group to keep its small arms.

In its onslaught on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hamas used AK-47-style rifles, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), drones, and other small arms while advancing on foot or in vehicles to seize IDF positions and Israeli communities. Allowing Hamas to keep such weapons would undermine the ceasefire’s progress, deter nations from contributing troops to Trump’s proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF), and escalate tensions with Israel.

U.S. Weighing Partial Surrender of Hamas Arms

The rationale behind requiring Hamas to surrender only heavy weapons is that doing so would reduce its ability to attack Israel. These “heavy weapons” would likely include its rocket arsenal.

This thinking is flawed. Even without rockets, Hamas would retain the capability to launch ground assaults. Israel estimates that Hamas still retains some 60,000 AK-47-style rifles and 20,000 fighters within its ranks.

Likewise, Hamas’s tunnel network remains largely intact in the areas it still controls. These tunnels enable Hamas to move operatives and store weapons. Israel considers Hamas’s tunnel infrastructure a key aspect of the group’s ability to reconstitute.

Hamas Won’t Budge on Disarmament

Hamas has shown no willingness to relinquish its weapons at all, even partially. On February 11, senior official Osama Hamdan stated that the group had “not received from the mediators any draft or official proposals regarding [its] weapons,” insisting that “maintaining [its] arms is a right as long as the occupation remains.” Hamdan also said that Israel “needs to be eliminated,” and that Hamas’s “weapons will not be laid down until their goal is achieved.” His comments echoed those of Hamas politburo official Khaled Mashaal, who stated last week that disarmament “is not something we should accept.”

Hamas retaining its weapons is not only unacceptable to Israel, but a threat to the very foundation of the ceasefire. Reports in the immediate wake of the October 2025 ceasefire indicated that countries approached by Washington to contribute troops to the ISF were hesitant to deploy soldiers while Hamas remained armed. Four months on, the hesitancy persists, with only Indonesia having submitted a concrete offer of 8,000 troops.

Hamas also continues to attack IDF troops. Terrorists in Rafah opened fire on IDF troops on February 9, before being eliminated in the ensuing battle. Since the ceasefire’s inception in October 2025, the group has violated the truce dozens of times.

Israel Mulling New Gaza Operation

Israeli media reported on February 10 that the IDF was quietly preparing contingency plans to resume military operations in Gaza should the situation deteriorate further. In January, a senior IDF official warned that the chances of the IDF resuming military operations to disarm Hamas  were growing — a campaign, the official added, that could take “many years.” In the meantime, the IDF is fortifying the “Yellow Line,” which separates Hamas-held areas of the enclave from IDF-controlled territory.

Washington Must Press for Total Disarmament

Compromise with Hamas on disarmament could deal a fatal blow to the ceasefire. The next steps in Trump’s plan, including recruiting the ISF and installing a Palestinian transitional government in Gaza, rely on the successful disarmament of Hamas. Any proposal that leaves the group intact with its weapons, even its small arms, will likely lead to the reconstitution of Hamas and cement its power in Gaza.

Washington should work unilaterally as well as through mediators Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey to demand full disarmament. This would involve surrendering both small arms and heavy weaponry, along with dismantling tunnel infrastructure, within a strictly enforced timeline. Washington should make clear that Hamas will bear responsibility for the inevitable collapse of the ceasefire if it refuses to cooperate.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.